Volvo Ocean Race - Blanket finish expected in Cape Town

by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz on 16 Nov 2017 The second leg of the Volvo Ocean race is projected to finish in eight and a half days time in Cape Town.

Running the 0700UTC from November 16, positions through the routing function of Predictwind.com shows that using one feed ECMWF, the fleet will finish within an hour, and with just a few minutes covering the lead boats.

A second feed PWG does not see the finish quite so tightly, with eight hours covering the fleet at this stage.

At present, the fleet is closer to the Brazilian coast about midway between Recife and Rio de Janeiro, and is now sailing in a 15kt breeze and doing better than windspeed with a true wind angle of around 120degrees.

Those conditions are expected to continue for a couple of days before the breeze increases to around 30kts, and boat speeds lift to be close to that - if they stick to the routing for the PWG feed, the boats will head further south.

The trade-off for heading south and picking up the fast ride comes as the boats close on Cape Town and have to run the gauntlet of light and shifting breezes.

Those who opt for a more direct course to the north will have a slightly slower ride but will at this stage make up for that with an easier run into Cape Town.

However it is almost certain that the forecast will change over the next eight days, and what it may be that some crews will take their chances with the fast ride south - even though there is 500nm further to sail, with the prospect of putting together a 600nm 24 hour run for one day at least.

Staying in the north, with lighter winds averaging 21-22kts the daily run looks to be in a 500nm day - but without the risks associated with having to sail the extra distance.

While the latest official position report shows Team AkzoNobel leading (on the distance to finish basis), on the basis of predicted finishing time they are in 5th position of the seven-boat fleet.

On the Predictwind routing calculations which optimise the boat's course to take advantage of the best weather available, MAPFRE and Dongfeng Race Team are almost level on both weather feeds (the most accurate available), with Vestas 11th Hour in third place.

Aboard Dongfeng, on board reporter Jeremie Lecaudey describes how the French skippered team fared overnight, and his observations of the helming talent aboard the Chinese entry.

'Standing behind the driver is always a cool sensation, you can feel his concentration, you can see what the boat is going to do next just by looking at the wheel, get surprised by the speed we get. You look at all the numbers, the bearing he's trying to follow, the speed he's getting, true wind angle, true wind speed...

'The one I like to watch is the polar percentage. The team analyses all the data received from the boat and they get a percentage on how the boat is performing depending on the wind, the conditions, the bearing, etc... Most of the time this number is close to 100, meaning the boat is performing well.

'It took me a while to understand that Pascal was driving, his body against the stack of sails, one of these stylish positions that some drivers end up having. Stu puts one of his hand upside down, Charles drives like a cowboy on a big truck, Daryl... looks like he's driving his own car really... he'll talk to you in 30 + knots and still follow your conversation as if nothing was happening when you're shit scared, every wave stopping the boat from gliding perfectly on the ocean unlike tonight, the boat smoothly follows the waves and gain speed up to 20 knots in the gusts.

'Daryl's average when I look at the polar percentage is always around 105, surely one of the best but what the hell, Jeremie, Carolijn, Jackson, they are all the best at it anyway...

'Now Pascal, king of the maps, the man who will direct an orchestra of sailors on deck from his intercom microphone down below just by looking at numbers, I even considered him being a vampire for never sleeping, analyzing god knows what forecast files that came in. When you see that man on the wheel, at night, with no moon, you have to wonder.... He turns to me and goes: 'It's nice at night isn't it?'

'Funny thing is, Pascal is the only one that I saw reach 110.

'He's the navigator!'