Rolex Sydney Hobart - 24 boats predicted to finish inside race record

by Di Pearson/Sail-World NZ on 26 Dec 2016 In the current conditions, race organisers have it that up to 24 boats could finish the 2016 Rolex Sydney Hobart under the current race record.

As dawn broke on the second and final day of the race, the fleet negotiated the light airs which replaced the traditional southerly front. Now the fleet leaders are sailing fast in the predicted SE breeze, which will freshen during the day.

Wild Oats XI continues to lead the 2016 Rolex Sydney Hobart, but the race is far from over, with Perpetual LOYAL, Black Jack, Scallywag and Giacomo within striking distance as they continue their quick march down the south coast of NSW – and incredibly at least 24 boats are ahead of the race record – or on record pace.

Wild Oats XI, skippered by Mark Richards, is just 64 nautical miles southeast of Gabo Island, sailing east of the rhumbline, well ahead of the record race time she set in 2012 when she was almost abeam of Eden.

The top nine boats are sailing in an easterly breeze, Scallywag, the furthest to sea, to take advantage of the easterly, keeping plenty of room between them and the coast, all sailing at around 13 knots. The rest are in a north-easterly, still enjoying a spinnaker run.

Conditions are perfect for the Volvo 70’s in the race, which is being proven by the positions of the three: Black Jack, Giacomo, and Maserati, with the 80 foot Beau Geste squeezing between the latter two. Black Jack is only half a mile behind Perpetual LOYAL, which in turn is 7 miles behind the race leader.

Wild Oats XI is now well into Bass Strait, where strong easterlies are expected throughout the afternoon, which will help push the frontrunners quickly towards their quest of breaking the record of one day 18hrs 23mins 12secs. It means Wild Oats and her contemporaries need to finish by 7.23am tomorrow morning to achieve their goal.

Meanwhile, one of the race favourites, Robbo Robertson’s Beneteau 40, Bravo, leads the race overall. Queenslander Robertson returned to sailing at 77 years of age. Behind her is a bizarre Chinese menage, with the Chinese TP52, UBOX (carrying a mix of Chinese and well known French crew), Rupert Henry’s Chinese Whisper and Travis Read’s China Easyway, which also has some Chinese crew aboard.

Race time predictions from Predictwind's routing application - with the snapshot taken 18 hours after the race start has the race leader, supermaxi, Wild Oats XI having another 18hours left to sail - making 36 hours for the 628 nm race. That gives a finish time of around 2.00am tomorrow morning and a massive seven hours off the race record.

At latest report, Wild Oats XI was back on 19kts, and that is on her predicted speed target at this point of the race. Her average speed for the rest of the course is 18kts. Winds will ease after nightfall, but this should not prevent the record being set, and winds are predicted to be 10kts at the race finish.

All four weather feeds used by Predictwind are unanimous in their projection, increasing the certainty of the predicted race time outcome.

There is little difference between the optimised course and a straight line for Hobart from the leader's current position, meaning that the leaders will just focus on sailing as quickly as possible without any real course positioning considerations.

The remaining 18hours of the race are expected to be sailed in near dream record conditions with winds just aft of the beam and a following sea of 1.4metres - allowing the supermaxis to build their apparent wind and achieve record times. The performances of the Volvo 70's will also be watched keenly as they hit their optimised conditions.

To follow the race progress on the official tracker click here

To see the wind and boat positions on an alternate tracker click here