Rolex Sydney Hobart: Little change in forecast for Saturday - Six retirements
by Richard Gladwell 26 Dec 2025 11:49 PST
Master Lock Comanche leads LawConnect on Line Honours - Day 1 - Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - December 26, 2025 © Andrea Francolini
Fresh southerlies are forecast to continue into Saturday for the leaders in the 80th Rolex Sydney Hobart Race
The race continues to be lead by the supermaxi, and race favorite, MasterLock Comanche which has extended overnight to be 3nm ahead of second placed Law Connect, both yachts appear to be hard on the wind sailing at around 12kts but on a direct course for Hobart. Another supermaxi SHK Scallywag is third 2nm behind the race leader.
On the overnight reports following the first night at sea, six yachts have retired - three more than the update at 2100hrs AEDT on Day 1 of the 628nm annual bash to Hobart.
The latest retirements include veteran Grant Wharrington's 100ft supermaxi Wild Thing, which has suffered rigging issues.
According weather routing using PredictWind, and a hypothetical supermaxi's performance polar, the eight weather feeds used/produced by PredictWind, show the race finishing late Sunday afternoon.
The southerly breeze forecast for the race start is expected to continue into Saturday afternoon, 24 hours into the race with winds averaging 27-29kts gusting to 35kts, predicted for a point east of Eden on the SE tip of the New South Wales coast, before the leaders head into Bass Strait on their way to the finish at Hobart. The race leaders passed this position about 0700hrs AEDT on Saturday, December 27, 2025.
One of the new weather feeds in PredictWind, PWAI - based on a combination of generative AI and forecast models shows a lighter breeze than the other models. PWAI is reckoned to be the most accurate of the eight models used by PredictWind.
The race leader at 2100hrs AEDT was the 100ft supermaxi and race record holder MasterLock Comanche, which was 0.6nm ahead of Law Connect the leader at the first turning mark.
While the weather routing using all eight wind models recommends standing more to the east, into the Tasman Sea. However the race boats have followed their usual strategy of staying closer to the rhumb line, and are staying closer to shore, out of the bigger seaway kicked up by the southerly set running against the wind and southerly swell.
The inshore boats have taken a hit on running into the northerly set of 0.4kts and less in some areas.
Tactical considerations are obviously in play, with competitors being unwilling to lose a covering position on their rivals.
Conditions in the forecast location off Eden are not expected to ease until the early hours of Sunday morning, after which the breeze will swing to the south and then SE.
Retirement List:
As of 0600hrs AEDT on December 27, 2025 - the first morning of the race, only five yachts had retired:
- Trouble & Strife - Retired - engine issues
- Awen - Retired - broken forestay
- Hutchies Yeah Baby - Retired - headstay damage. All OK.
- Inukshuk (DH) - Retired - rudder issues. All OK.
- White Noise - Retired - rigging issues. All OK on board.
- Wild Thing 100 - Retired - rigging issues
Additional Images:
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