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Gaussian Handicaps

Printed From: Yachts and Yachting Online
Category: Dinghy classes
Forum Name: Dinghy development
Forum Discription: The latest moves in the dinghy market
URL: http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=13226
Printed Date: 24 Jun 19 at 6:46pm
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com


Topic: Gaussian Handicaps
Posted By: Peaky
Subject: Gaussian Handicaps
Date Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 7:52pm
as it isnít possible to know exactly what yardstick should be applied in a race (both because they vary year on year and no race is exactly average), then the right thing to do is to set PY ranges for a class e.g. Laser is somewhere between 1085 and 1105. Assume a Gaussian distribution and then calculate the scores in a probabilistic way. Ie if boat A beats boat B by 3 seconds it currently scored as 1 and 2, but in reality we may only be 60% confident boat A actually won (as its PY May be too generous), so it may be fairer to score as 1.4 and 1.6.



Sorry, not explained very well because Iím on a phone, but hopefully you get the gist.




Replies:
Posted By: 423zero
Date Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 8:52pm
Not when I am on duty LOL


Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 9:16pm
The theory is sound. I'm of the opinion that at Utopiaville SC many more results would be recorded as ties. If boats are 1 second apart on corrected time then that's actually a greater resolution that the average club timing is capable of measuring. How ever the complications of several boats together render it impractical: if you say that corrected times 1087 and 1088 secs should be a tie, what do you do if 4 boats correct out at 1087, 1088, 1089 and 1090? One feature of any good scoring system is that you should be able to explain it to *all* the competitors.

The other factor, of course, is, when you calculate a set of real series results based on your concept, does it actually make any difference? I once diligently worked out a scoring system that was supposed to combine the best features of high point and low point scoring, wrote a spreadsheet to calculate results using it, and even started drafting a little article about what a wonderful system it was. Then I plumbed a couple of sets of old club results into it, and was mortified to find that not only did it make no difference beyond swapping a few places around mid fleet, but also I wouldn't be able to put my hand on my heart and say I was confident the different results were definitely better...


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 9:19pm
I like this idea. Win by 2 minutes, you get everything. Win by 3 seconds, as you say, only get part of the points. However, what happens when 4 or 5 boats are very close? So much doubt, the computer would explode.

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Firefly 2324, Lightning 130, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446


Posted By: 423zero
Date Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 10:00pm
Sometimes, I have to blow the hooter when the boat passes through the transit and note the time in my head, then write the time I have remembered on the sheet, hopefully next to the correct boat, sometimes several boats can finish almost together, that gets interesting, sometimes to further complicate matters I could have a new member with me, showing them the ropes.
Our set up is a push button hooter, a countdown stop watch and handwritten race sheets, the start is flags and hooter and countdown stopwatch, so you have to start watch press hooter button and raise flag.


Posted By: PeterG
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 9:05am
I like it! Now who is going to be the one to tell GRF after he's won a handicap race - "sorry - the handicap committee says you only get 60% of first place"

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Peter
Ex Cont 707
Laser 189635
DY 59


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 9:53am
perhaps race timers should only count to to the nearest ten seconds or perhaps not even show seconds? 

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RS800 868
Marconi SC


Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 9:54am
Originally posted by PeterG

I like it! Now who is going to be the one to tell GRF after he's won a handicap race - "sorry - the handicap committee says you only get 60% of first place"


It wouldn't worry me as long as I won over the water.

What annoys me is the destruction of a group of us wednesday afternoon racers that used to race pretty much scratch when the solution and the laser were the same ( Was a couple of years ago now)then miraculously their boats all got slower and mine got faster yet none of us even bought so much as a new sail.

Personally I'd go with Lasers always equal 60 then everyone else gets timed around them. Nor would it be difficult to actually trial and fix. Boat on boat year on year, you could even bring in wind bands over a period if it was desired.

The PYAG should be forced to sail the things themselves, if they could be prized out of their smoke filled room, ambulanced down to a piece of water, colostomy tubed up and set adrift.

Alternatively, my PYAG would be five or six active sailors who would sail the things, there would be annual round robin event one on the sea the other inland and if there were any significant timing differences only then would changes be applied.

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Posted By: JohnJack
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 10:58am
How about a points system, a bit like in the decathalon/heptathlon?


Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 11:27am
Don't we already have that?

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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 1:36pm
Originally posted by iGRF

Originally posted by PeterG

I like it! Now who is going to be the one to tell GRF after he's won a handicap race - "sorry - the handicap committee says you only get 60% of first place"


It wouldn't worry me as long as I won over the water.

What annoys me is the destruction of a group of us wednesday afternoon racers that used to race pretty much scratch when the solution and the laser were the same ( Was a couple of years ago now)then miraculously their boats all got slower and mine got faster yet none of us even bought so much as a new sail. 

Personally I'd go with Lasers always equal 60 then everyone else gets timed around them. Nor would it be difficult to actually trial and fix. Boat on boat year on year, you could even bring in wind bands over a period if it was desired. 


why not ignore the rya yearly change and fix your numbers to the ones your'e apparently confident of?


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RS800 868
Marconi SC


Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 5:22pm
Originally posted by Oli


Originally posted by iGRF

Originally posted by PeterG

I like it! Now who is going to be the one to tell GRF after he's won a handicap race - "sorry - the handicap committee says you only get 60% of first place"


It wouldn't worry me as long as I won over the water.

What annoys me is the destruction of a group of us wednesday afternoon racers that used to race pretty much scratch when the solution and the laser were the same ( Was a couple of years ago now)then miraculously their boats all got slower and mine got faster yet none of us even bought so much as a new sail.†

Personally I'd go with Lasers always equal 60 then everyone else gets timed around them. Nor would it be difficult to actually trial and fix. Boat on boat year on year, you could even bring in wind bands over a period if it was desired.†

<span style="color: rgb0, 0, 204;">why not ignore the rya yearly change and fix your numbers to the ones your'e apparently confident of?</span>


Apart from the usual club politics, the Laserati, just to quote Corporal Jones, 'don't like it up em' and will seize on every little advantage, it comes from having to sail such a crap boat..

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Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 6:34pm
Originally posted by Oli

perhaps race timers should only count to to the nearest ten seconds or perhaps not even show seconds? 

Back in the late '60s my dad built a race timer for out club using GPO surplus relays and a 'bomber clock' timer. It ran the start sequence and then counted up in minutes and 1/10ths of minutes. Then he worked out the corrected times on his slide rule.


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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 12:17pm
Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

Originally posted by Oli

perhaps race timers should only count to to the nearest ten seconds or perhaps not even show seconds? 

Back in the late '60s my dad built a race timer for out club using GPO surplus relays and a 'bomber clock' timer. It ran the start sequence and then counted up in minutes and 1/10ths of minutes. Then he worked out the corrected times on his slide rule.

seems your problem is with your fellow club sailors, better get that party rosette out and knocking on doors to change the peoples minds.....


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RS800 868
Marconi SC


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 12:18pm
Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

Originally posted by Oli

perhaps race timers should only count to to the nearest ten seconds or perhaps not even show seconds? 

Back in the late '60s my dad built a race timer for out club using GPO surplus relays and a 'bomber clock' timer. It ran the start sequence and then counted up in minutes and 1/10ths of minutes. Then he worked out the corrected times on his slide rule.

awesome!


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RS800 868
Marconi SC


Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 12:29pm
Originally posted by Oli

Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

Originally posted by Oli

perhaps race timers should only count to to the nearest ten seconds or perhaps not even show seconds? 

Back in the late '60s my dad built a race timer for out club using GPO surplus relays and a 'bomber clock' timer. It ran the start sequence and then counted up in minutes and 1/10ths of minutes. Then he worked out the corrected times on his slide rule.

awesome!

It was an awesome bit of kit, it lit/extinguished the lights, hooted the hooter and timed the race and it was entirely electro-mechanical with not a semiconductor in sight. I don't know why he elected for 1/10ths of a minute as the 'bomber clock' had a resolution of half a second but he reckoned it was virtually as accurate as the normal practice of correcting the minutes and adding the seconds on (we used Langstone Tables which were not unlike your school log tables for those who can remember them) and much quicker to calculate.

Oh and it ran of a 12V car battery as we didn't have power to the start box.


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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"


Posted By: Cirrus
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 5:37pm
why not ignore the rya yearly change and fix your numbers to the ones your'e apparently confident of?

I think that is what the RYA encourage anyway for 'local' use ..... and is just what the 'Great Lakes' numbers are about really.   Not that either alternative will please some people of course !!  ("Not invented here" etc ...)    LOL


Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 5:41pm
LLSC adjust the PN for popular (at the club) classes in accordance with the RYA recommendations but they readjust them twice a year.

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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 6:37pm
Sam sounds like a proper bit of kit, is it gathering dust somewhere? Would be cool to have it on display or In use somewhere.

Citrus that is what the RYA prescribe, adjust locally can also mean donít move to the new numbers. Why people get so upset is beyond me, especially when they only class it as competitive cruising or the like.

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Marconi SC


Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 11 Dec 18 at 6:50pm
Originally posted by Oli

Sam sounds like a proper bit of kit, is it gathering dust somewhere? Would be cool to have it on display or In use somewhere.

I was thinking exactly that myself but it is, sadly, lost in the mists of time. You have set me thinking though, I may ask a mate who is still involved in that club just in case as I'm sure my dad left it with them when he moved on.......


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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 12 Dec 18 at 9:51am
good luck Sam, hope you find it, and if you do it would be great to see it...

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RS800 868
Marconi SC


Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 12 Dec 18 at 11:18am
It would indeed, I'm coming over all nostalgic in my old age Wink can't see it being out there still though........

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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"



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