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Gaussian Handicaps

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Peaky View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Peaky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Gaussian Handicaps
    Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 7:52pm
as it isnít possible to know exactly what yardstick should be applied in a race (both because they vary year on year and no race is exactly average), then the right thing to do is to set PY ranges for a class e.g. Laser is somewhere between 1085 and 1105. Assume a Gaussian distribution and then calculate the scores in a probabilistic way. Ie if boat A beats boat B by 3 seconds it currently scored as 1 and 2, but in reality we may only be 60% confident boat A actually won (as its PY May be too generous), so it may be fairer to score as 1.4 and 1.6.



Sorry, not explained very well because Iím on a phone, but hopefully you get the gist.

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423zero View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 8:52pm
Not when I am on duty  LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 9:16pm
The theory is sound. I'm of the opinion that at Utopiaville SC many more results would be recorded as ties. If boats are 1 second apart on corrected time then that's actually a greater resolution that the average club timing is capable of measuring. How ever the complications of several boats together render it impractical: if you say that corrected times 1087 and 1088 secs should be a tie, what do you do if 4 boats correct out at 1087, 1088, 1089 and 1090? One feature of any good scoring system is that you should be able to explain it to *all* the competitors.

The other factor, of course, is, when you calculate a set of real series results based on your concept, does it actually make any difference? I once diligently worked out a scoring system that was supposed to combine the best features of high point and low point scoring, wrote a spreadsheet to calculate results using it, and even started drafting a little article about what a wonderful system it was. Then I plumbed a couple of sets of old club results into it, and was mortified to find that not only did it make no difference beyond swapping a few places around mid fleet, but also I wouldn't be able to put my hand on my heart and say I was confident the different results were definitely better...

Edited by JimC - 09 Dec 18 at 9:21pm
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 9:19pm
I like this idea. Win by 2 minutes, you get everything. Win by 3 seconds, as you say, only get part of the points. However, what happens when 4 or 5 boats are very close? So much doubt, the computer would explode.
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423zero View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Dec 18 at 10:00pm
Sometimes, I have to blow the hooter when the boat passes through the transit and note the time in my head, then write the time I have remembered on the sheet, hopefully next to the correct boat, sometimes several boats can finish almost together, that gets interesting, sometimes to further complicate matters I could have a new member with me, showing them the ropes.
Our set up is a push button hooter, a countdown stop watch and handwritten race sheets, the start is flags and hooter and countdown stopwatch, so you have to start watch press hooter button and raise flag.


Edited by 423zero - 09 Dec 18 at 10:03pm
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PeterG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote PeterG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 9:05am
I like it! Now who is going to be the one to tell GRF after he's won a handicap race - "sorry - the handicap committee says you only get 60% of first place"
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Oli View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 9:53am
perhaps race timers should only count to to the nearest ten seconds or perhaps not even show seconds? 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 9:54am
Originally posted by PeterG

I like it! Now who is going to be the one to tell GRF after he's won a handicap race - "sorry - the handicap committee says you only get 60% of first place"


It wouldn't worry me as long as I won over the water.

What annoys me is the destruction of a group of us wednesday afternoon racers that used to race pretty much scratch when the solution and the laser were the same ( Was a couple of years ago now)then miraculously their boats all got slower and mine got faster yet none of us even bought so much as a new sail.

Personally I'd go with Lasers always equal 60 then everyone else gets timed around them. Nor would it be difficult to actually trial and fix. Boat on boat year on year, you could even bring in wind bands over a period if it was desired.

The PYAG should be forced to sail the things themselves, if they could be prized out of their smoke filled room, ambulanced down to a piece of water, colostomy tubed up and set adrift.

Alternatively, my PYAG would be five or six active sailors who would sail the things, there would be annual round robin event one on the sea the other inland and if there were any significant timing differences only then would changes be applied.

Edited by iGRF - 10 Dec 18 at 9:54am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JohnJack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 10:58am
How about a points system, a bit like in the decathalon/heptathlon?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 18 at 11:27am
Don't we already have that?
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