Volvo Ocean Race - Fast and tight for the final week to Cape Town

by Richard Gladwell and Volvo Ocean Race on 17 Nov 2017 The Volvo Ocean Race fleet continue to be closely bunched on the basis of projected finish times.

Using the routing function of Predictwind.com the fleet is projected to finish within two and a half hours from first to seventh using the PWG weather feed, and within just 28 minutes using the most accurate feed ECMWF. The fleet is now expected to finish in six and a half to seven days time.

Those margins are expected to receive a a shake up over the next few days as the competitors make a decision as to whether to take a hook to the south to pick up the breeze for a final run to Cape Town, or to sail a less extreme course, for less distance and lower speeds.

Currently the Chinese entry DongFeng will be the first to finish using the data from both feeds, however there is 17hours variation in the projected finish times. That is because the PWG feed is seeing stronger winds in three days time with the fleet expected to be sailing at average speeds of 25kts or more for a 24 hour period, while the ECMWF feed sees lighter winds.

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At the 0900UTC position reports, race favorite MAPFRE was probably in second place on the basis of projected finish times, followed by Brunel, Vestas 11th Hour, AkzoNobel, Turn the Tide on Plastic and Scallywag. However the racing is so close that those positions are expected to change once the decision is made on diving south or continuing to head east.

The weather data seems to be in agreement to a greater extent than yesterday, with several boats showing very similar courses from both feeds. However there are still variances of up to 200nm in route between the two prognoses - caused by the ECMWF feed recommending a shuffle further south, rather than a gybe and dive.

Volvo Ocean Race reports from Rob Greenhalgh on MAPFRE:

'The drag race south continues with the longer term weather ahead very uncertain. How teams choose to position in the south Atlantic will determine the race with a lot of risk/reward on offer to those willing to play.

'Currently Akzo, TT and Scally could make some losses being too close to the high pressure. The risky move would be to turn east early and go direct or take a loss to try to rejoin the lead pack. Who knows...

'Mapfre are enjoying life an a fast leg so far with a relatively easy doldrums and equatorial crossing. Our boat speed seems good and the team is working very well across the watch system.

'We have over the last 12hrs just lost touch with Dongfeng but this will swing back in due course. The fleet constantly compresses and extends as we find different wind fields.

'Looks like a Cape Town arrival next weekend at some stage. For sure there is going to be a lot of action between now and then as the fleet enters the southern ocean.'