Volvo Ocean Race Leg 4 Day 17

Groupama in the Pacific trade winds during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race © Yann Riou / Groupama Sailing Team / Volvo Ocean Race

Groupama bank miles as fleet weighs up final strategy

Groupama Sailing Team are today making the most of fresh trade winds to increase their margin at the front of the fleet as they power south faster than anyone else.

At 1300 UTC Franck Cammas’ crew had extended to 112 nautical miles (nm) ahead of Ken Read’s PUMA Ocean Racing powered by BERG in second and more than 165 nm in front of Iker Martínez’s third placed Team Telefónica.

Groupama were the first boat into stronger steadier trade winds, enabling them to create a much needed safety margin which bowman Brad Marsh believes could come in handy before the finish when the weather scenario could be very different.

“Our aim right now is to keep a buffer on the guys behind us and hopefully if things go wrong we have enough to hold them back,’’ he said.

“If the weather system changes, like with the system that is sort of threatening to develop behind us, then it’s easy to get all the boats scattered across the ocean.

“That creates a chance for someone like Telefónica or PUMA or CAMPER to make a rather large gain with a new weather system coming in from behind us. That’s the risk we have at the moment,” Marsh said.

According to race meteorologist Gonzalo Infante a 24 hour drag-race south is on the cards before the fleet turn towards New Zealand’s North Cape and slug it out against the wind to the finish in Auckland.

Infante says the final days of Leg 4 are unlikely to be straightforward as a low-pressure system lurking over Fiji could mean a major headache for the fleet’s navigators.

“An eastern course runs the risk of falling foul of the low’s light winds but reduces the anticipated upwind sailing to the finish, while a more western course means faster angles but sailing a greater distance against the wind,” Infante explained.

Fourth placed CAMPER with Emirates Team New Zealand navigator Will Oxley has plumped for the more westerly option and reckons the rest of the fleet will have to get closer to CAMPER’s track to avoid the low pressure.

“It looks like there’s low above New Zealand,” he said. “To the west of that low extends a finger of quite low air, so the boats in the east will end up having to come down to our line to get around that and we hope to see some compression at that point.”

Oxley also hopes the western route could help them equal the reaching pace of Groupama, PUMA and Telefónica -- all three Juan Kouyoumdjian designs.

“I don’t think there’s any secret in the fact that this sort of reaching is not our strong point against the three Juan K boats,’’ he said. “It’s very hard for us to go the same speed in equal conditions, so we hope that we have a little more lifting breeze being a little more west than them which enables us to match their speed.”

Despite being in fifth place at 1300 UTC today and 37 nm behind CAMPER, Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing skipper Ian Walker still believes the Emirati team have plenty to play for before the finish of Leg 4.

“After sailing so well and pushing hard to get into third we now find ourselves in fifth, but hopefully with a shot still at CAMPER,’’ Walker said. “We have just made a nice gain back at them and so maybe we still have a chance to convert our easterly position into gains.”

Just over 1000 nautical miles remain of Leg 4 from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand.

The first boat is currently expected to arrive in Auckland on March 10 around 1000 UTC.

Position Report at 13:02:49 UTC:

www.VolvoOceanRace.com

Wind aces (from Groupama Sailing Team)

Though Groupama 4 has been able to extend her lead over the past 24 hours, part of the weather situation between New Caledonia and New Zealand is coloured by doubt. Indeed the light airs offshore of Auckland could cause the fleet to bunch up again. The ETA is reckoned to be between noon on Friday and Saturday night UTC.

The larder will be empty when Franck Cammas and his men cross the finish line in Auckland. This fourth leg has been longer than scheduled, and the person in charge of the canteen had reckoned on eighteen days at sea! As such, from Friday morning, the crew will have to nibble on the leftovers, whilst the light airs around New Zealand could stretch out the race time even further. In terms of hierarchy there is less uncertainty now: the two trios have converged level with New Caledonia and are now making headway in virtually the same sailing conditions, in an easterly wind of between 15 and 20 knots.

A parabola course to round off

Ultimately Groupama 4 opted to sail far beyond her country's overseas territories, passing 150 miles to the West of Nouméa, so as not to be affected by its high altitude. At the same time, the different courses have fallen back into line somewhat behind them and the lateral separation between the three “westerners” (Telefonica, Camper and Sanya) has shrunk from 250 to around a hundred miles. Now the formation of a low to the North of New Zealand, which isn't very pronounced, is leaving no strategic options for the final 1,000 miles to the finish. As a result, the whole fleet will have to avoid the calms which will reign across the direct route from Wednesday and the navigators have no other choice than to head due South for 500 miles, before they stand a chance of being able to make for the northern tip of New Zealand.

According to the grib files, for the next 24 hours the French leader will further increase her lead over the Americans and Spanish, who are virtually on the same latitude (with Puma 80 miles further East). It's a favourable position in this beam wind, but it's causing some concern aboard the American boat. Indeed the two boats are practically identical and have the same potential. As such the end of the leg is very important for both these teams, who could still threaten Groupama 4 on this descent along the coast of New Zealand where light airs will prevail. It's even possible that the crews will have to beat into the thermal breezes…

General bunching of the fleet?

In this way, from Wednesday evening, the fleet are likely to adopt a course due South, with a slight tendency to sail close to the wind in order to make headway to the East. However, this eastward move will have to be done in moderation so as the teams don't come up against a light breeze generated by the centre of the low. However, at some time or another, it will be necessary to dip down to the northern tip of New Zealand and sail close-hauled in around ten knots of South-East to easterly wind. Though Franck Cammas and his men are in a strong position at this stage of the leg, Thursday looks set to be decisive for the standing in Auckland. Groupama 4 has some good cards up her sleeve, but the wind may yet deal the aces out again.

Ultimately the major loser in this fourth offshore leg is Abu Dhabi, despite the fact that the team perfectly handled the exit from the China Sea and their entry into the Pacific. However, the lack of Doldrums didn't penalise those favouring an insular route at the Solomon Islands and Ian Walker and his crew haven't been able to hook onto the easterly tradewinds to the North of New Caledonia like their predecessors. As such they're going to really have their work cut out to catch up with the leading group, whilst Camper still has a chance of overtaking the Spaniards on this final stretch, which they are particularly familiar with…

Team Blog from Ian Walker (Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing)

I couldn’t bring myself to write a blog for the last two days for two reasons. Firstly we were having a torrid time trying to get round the top of the Solomon Islands for a day, and then we have been having just as bad a time trying to get through our own mini doldrums into the South East trades. All the while this was going on; the boats that were behind - and couldn’t lay the Solomon Islands - were being offered a ‘get out of jail free’ card in the West.

So after sailing so well and pushing hard to get into third we now find ourselves in fifth… but hopefully with a shot still at Camper. The leaders have been able to extend away from the lighter winds to a very impressive lead. So what has brought me to the keyboard? Well, firstly I feel a lot better after a fresh water shower in a huge rain cloud earlier today – the sight of 11 hairy, smelly guys running around covering themselves in shower gel in the rain was very amusing. Secondly we have just made a nice gain back at Camper and so maybe we still have a chance to convert our Easterly position into gains.

Everyone is also feeling a bit more upbeat now because we have our fraction zero up and are going reasonably fast towards Auckland for the first time in days. A lot of focus is already being put on the Auckland stopover – and how short it is going to be. The shore crews are going to have to really be on their game to turn the fleet around in a couple of days. There will be no time to order and make spares there – everything we need has to be put in action now so any spare time onboard is spent co-ordinating job lists and parts lists with them. The sailors have to get their heads around the fact that after 25 days straight sailing they will only get one or two days off before taking on the Southern Ocean.

This will be particularly hard on the Kiwis who are looking forward to precious time at home after long stints abroad. Anyway – the best thing we can do on all counts is to get to Auckland as fast as we can. We still haven’t given up hope of getting there faster than a few boats around us.

Ian Walker
0430 6th March
16 45S 161 55E