Collinson FX market Commentary: November 13, 2012
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Veterans Day in the US means a very light trading day on Wall St and thus globally with little direction.
Markets did earlier focus on extremely positive economic data from China, with the Trade surplus expanding at the best rate in four years. The Trade Surplus accelerated at a very strong pace as exports boomed boosting commodity currencies with the AUD moving up to 1.0415 and the KIWI to 0.8175.
The link with other risk-currencies has been broken with the EUR falling back to 1.2715 and the GBP down to 1.5875. The news from China has been positive but ultimate dependence on the European and US markets has tempered the gains. In Europe the EU Finance Ministers gather this week with approval of the next Greek bail-out tranche on the agenda.
The Troika are reticent to approve this despite the Greeks passage of the new budget over the weekend. The problem is the fiscal deterioration with forecasters predicting Greek debt to rise to more than 190% of GDP! One thing for sure is that this will not end well!
The US meanwhile face the 'fiscal cliff' and the 'debt ceiling' which will inevitably lead to higher taxes no matter what the solution. The solution will definitely negatively impact US (and thus global) growth.
Obama has little grasp on the requirements of the economy and survives on personal popularity. The peoples affection will abandon him when the economy plunges back in to recession in the New Year!
You get what you pay for!
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by Collinson FX - 11:22 AM Tue 13 Nov 2012 GMT
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