sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery

 

Sail-World.com : GFC hangover still impacting on consumer confidence

GFC hangover still impacting on consumer confidence

'Consumer sentiment slow to pick up.'    MIAA
Consumer caution, led by born again budget-conscious and debt-fearful women, will hinder the Australian economic recovery, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe.

Speaking at the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) business breakfast in Brisbane last week, Blythe was explaining the economic backdrop framing the economy.

In the lead up to the Federal Budget announcement slated for next Tuesday (May 10), Blythe described the economic backdrop as quite good and says it will remain good for the next couple of years, although there are some risks involved.

'From our research, when you turn to domestic risks, a big one is the consumer who is far more interested in savings and paying off debt than spending, so this cautious consumer and how that evolves will have an effect on the economy,' he said.

'It’s not so much consumer caution, it’s retail caution that we should be thinking about - one third of consumer spending is in the retail sector, so the retail sector is currently in pain. We also found that women dominate decisions in the retail sector of spending and men tend to dominate the spending decision in the non-retail areas of the economy.

'What stands out about this is that our female client base is much less optimistic about the outlook than our male client base, so the less optimistic the group that controls retail spending is the weaker that sector will be. To change those perceptions, there needs to be a strong labour market.'

Blythe says consumers should prepare for an environment where interest rates will increase over the next year due to two key factors.

'There are two indications that interest rates need to go up – there are inflationary reasons and with the mining boom, another sector has to step back and make room and the only sector big enough to do that is the household sector. Putting up interest rates has always been an effective way of putting a lid on household activity.

'When commodity prices rise, it tends to boost the nominal GDP rate. Real GDP over the next few years will grow by t3 to 3.5 per cent. At the same time, we think nominal GDP will grow by 7 or 8 per cent per (annually) and that’s an above average outcome.

'The mining boom mark two won’t deliver the same roads of gold that the mining boom mark one delivered, we’ve compared key indicators like profits, growth in capital spend and taxes paid by the mining sector.'

When the budget is released next week, Blythe said the economy is likely go into savings mode to counter its deficit.
'The various natural disasters will add to deficits and a flood levy will start later this year so we’re off track to getting back to a surplus in a few years time,' he explained.

'At this stage, it looks like a lot of savings measures will be pushed through, like means testing of the health insurance rebate, which will most certainly go through this time round and changes to middle class welfare payments.
'In terms of new spending, I think it will go towards mental health initiatives, education and training, incentives to encourage people from welfare back into the workforce and incentives for infrastructure related spending.'




by Media Services

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=83233

2:05 AM Sat 7 May 2011 GMT






Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.


News - USA and the World















2014 J/111 World Championship - Bigger breeze arrives on day 2! by Stuart Johnstone, Cowes, Isle of Wight




























Audi Melges 20 U.S. Nationals - Oleander takes early lead by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,






2014 Detroit Cup - Sam Gilmour leads by Dobbs Davis, Detroit, Michigan








Audi Hamilton Island Race Week: Riding the AC45 - VIDEO by Crosbie Lorimer, Hamilton Island










America's Cup: Five Challengers sign-on for 35th Match
Volvo Ocean Race CEO Knut Frostad talks Time and Money (Part II) *Feature
America’s Cup - British Challenge accepted by Golden Gate Yacht Club
Volvo Ocean Race - It’s been emotional, but it’s time to move on
Cork OCR - Sail Canada Senior Nationals wrap up
J/111 World Championships - British Teams take early lead on day 1
Round Britain and Ireland Race - Jellyfish stings British Soldier
International Cadet World Championship – Day 4 at Weymouth, England
Nanjing Youth Olympic Games - Light wind plagues Lake Jinniu
2014 Formula Kite World Championships - Bridges strike back on day 2
AWT Quatro Desert Showdown at Punta San Carlos
SAP 505 World Championship - Holt and Woelfel on top
2014 IFDS Disabled Sailing World Championship - Day 2
Audi Hamilton Island Race Week; MC38s Lindeman Island Race VIDEO
2014 Audi Melges 20 U.S. National Championship - Ready to rock
IFDS Worlds - Wind delays, but racing continues in Halifax
IFDS World Championships - Day 2 images by Jude Robertson
MS Cup - Three days until the start
America's Cup: Rod Davis - Time for a change after ten years with team *Feature
ISAF seeking hosting bids for Nations Cup
Laser 4.7 Youth Worlds - Luvisetto and Alexadr Boite victorious +Video   
IFDS World Championships - Action shots by Tim Wilkes   
Maxi yacht rendezvous this September in Sardinia   
World Yacht Racing Forum 2014: 'Growing the business of Yacht Racing'   
Clipper Race: 2015-16 edition of world's longest ocean race 70% full   
Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland - Swish smash 5th World Record   
Leaderboards take shape at the Nanjing Youth Olympic Games 2014   
IFDS Worlds - Hot competition on first day of racing   
Challenging Conditions - CORK OCR   
IFDS World Championship - Day 1 for the US Sailing Team   
2014 Melges 20 World Championship - Countdown begins   
2014 Nanjing Youth Olympic Games - Day 3   
America's Cup: Team NZ wish Davis well with new team *Feature   
Fisher's View: Sailing perfection at Hamilton Island- Day 3   
Roble and Wilson still number one match racers in the U.S.   
2014 Formula Kite World Championship Day 1   
IFDS World Championship - Day 1 images by Jude Robertson   
Volvo Ocean Race: Forget the f-word - Team SCA profiled   
52 Super Series - Fleet grows, 2015 dates revealed   
420 and 470 Junior Europeans - Teams from 9 nations on the podium   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL WAS US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT