News Home Video Gallery Newsletters Photo Gallery Cruising Int
Sail-World.com : High hurricane activity predicted for the Atlantic in 2013
High hurricane activity predicted for the Atlantic in 2013


'Hurricane Sandy damage'    .

As the hurricane season approaches for the North Atlantic leisure sailors, marinas and yacht clubs, already left bruised by the last season's hurricanes, will be watching the forecasts closely. Colorado State University, in their 30th year of forecasts, has no good news for them, this week predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and no less than four major (more than 95kt winds) hurricanes.

Their prediction of such and above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season is due primarily to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic and expected lack of an El Nino event.

The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, which falls between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5).

A man surveys the damage after Hurricane Sandy -  .. .  

'The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,' said Phil Klotzbach, who authors the forecast with William Gray of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. 'Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.'

The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.

The forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.

'All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is,' Klotzbach said. 'It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.'

Five hurricane seasons since 1900 exhibited oceanic and atmospheric characteristics most similar to those observed in February-March 2013: 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. Four out of the five years had above-average hurricane activity.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.

Hurricane Sandy strike on the USA coastline -  .. .  


The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)

• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)

• Caribbean – 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability website at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Landfall probabilities for regions and counties are adjusted based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Probabilities are also available for the Caribbean and Central America. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University in Massachusetts.

The team will issue forecast updates on June 3 and August 2.

CSU RESEARCH TEAM EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013
-Released April 10, 2013-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Median Forecast for 2013
in parentheses)
Named Storms (12)* 18
Named Storm Days (60.1) 95
Hurricanes (6.5) 9
Hurricane Days (21.3) 40
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 4
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (92) 165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (103%) 175
* Numbers in ( ) represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.


by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach/Sail-World

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=108499

12:43 AM Wed 17 Apr 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.







Cruising USA

The Galley Guys take on the Vancouver International Boat Show by Greg Nicoll with Frank Leffelaar and Friends,


Are you ready to enter that marina? by Captain John Jamieson, Florida










Remember to properly dispose of obsolete distress beacons by Australian Maritime Safety Authority,




World ARC fleet bids farewell to Bali by World Cruising Club,














World ARC crews in Bali by World Cruising Club,


Could your sailing navigation use a tune-up? by Captain John Jamieson, Florida








The Boat Cookbook by BoatBooks,








World ARC fleet now arriving in Bali by World Cruising Club,










Pack this sailing gear for 'hands-free' lighting by Captain John Jamieson, Florida








NOAA expedition discovers ship’s timepiece silent for nearly 200 years
Blue Planet Odyssey - Northwest Passage gate opens
A Cruising Guide to the Dominican Republic 6.0 now available
Africa Europe Challenge introduces 'Spectator's Package'
Niagara-on-the-Lake, a popular cruising destination in Canada
The crowd-pleasing comforts of catamaran cruising
'Sailing Stones' of Death Valley seen in action for the first time
20 coral species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act
A case of crossed wires? A shocking situation!
OHPRI Teen Summer Camps make a splash
How amazingly awe-inspiring the Arctic really is
Boaters urged to attend anchoring meetings next week in Florida
New atlas provides thorough audit of marine life in the Southern Ocean
Canal Boating in the Alsace with the Galley Guys
World ARC fleet arrives in Darwin
Timeless Tonga - Charter sailing in a Polynesian paradise *Feature
A fine conclusion to the ARC Baltic 2014
Where in the world are our strongest corals?
Incredible efforts to save yacht from being lost at sea
ARC Baltic fleet visit six countries and six capitals in six weeks
Helen Island, Palau -a beautiful and unique place   
Barnacle Busting   
From Penguins to Polar Bears   
Cornell turns back from the North West Passage   
Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science   
Missing German tourists in the hands of Abu Sayyaf Group   
NCI granted dedicated VHF Channel   
Positive news for cruising boats in Greece   
Bivalves' ability to clean chemicals from waterways   
Are You Sailing with 'Weak Links' in your sailing rigging?   
Week-long cruise turns into 16-year round-the-world voyage   
World ARC fleet cruising the Coral Coast   
Yacht penalized for calling unannounced into Port Resolution   
Galley Guys on the Malty Seas   
Blue Planet Odyssey - Beset in Arctic Bay ice + Video   
Garcia Yachts Exploration 45 - Jimmy Cornell's newest adventure   
Sustainable Seafood - How to purchase with confidence   
Risks to penguin populations continues   
ARC Baltic fleet head from Helsinki to Stockholm   
Follow these tips when anchoring   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW Cru USA
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT