sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : High hurricane activity predicted for the Atlantic in 2013
High hurricane activity predicted for the Atlantic in 2013


'Hurricane Sandy damage'    .

As the hurricane season approaches for the North Atlantic leisure sailors, marinas and yacht clubs, already left bruised by the last season's hurricanes, will be watching the forecasts closely. Colorado State University, in their 30th year of forecasts, has no good news for them, this week predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and no less than four major (more than 95kt winds) hurricanes.

Their prediction of such and above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season is due primarily to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic and expected lack of an El Nino event.

The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, which falls between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5).

A man surveys the damage after Hurricane Sandy -  .. .  

'The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,' said Phil Klotzbach, who authors the forecast with William Gray of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. 'Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.'

The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.

The forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.

'All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is,' Klotzbach said. 'It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.'

Five hurricane seasons since 1900 exhibited oceanic and atmospheric characteristics most similar to those observed in February-March 2013: 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. Four out of the five years had above-average hurricane activity.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.

Hurricane Sandy strike on the USA coastline -  .. .  


The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)

• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)

• Caribbean – 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability website at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Landfall probabilities for regions and counties are adjusted based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Probabilities are also available for the Caribbean and Central America. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University in Massachusetts.

The team will issue forecast updates on June 3 and August 2.

CSU RESEARCH TEAM EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013
-Released April 10, 2013-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Median Forecast for 2013
in parentheses)
Named Storms (12)* 18
Named Storm Days (60.1) 95
Hurricanes (6.5) 9
Hurricane Days (21.3) 40
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 4
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (92) 165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (103%) 175
* Numbers in ( ) represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.


by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach/Sail-World

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=108499

12:43 AM Wed 17 Apr 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.







News - USA and the World





Starboard Hatteras Wave Jam day 5 by American Windsurfing Tour,






































470 Men and Women Worlds - Champions decided in Santander by International 470 Class Association,
























Belcher takes record fifth 470 World Championship
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Santander - Day 8 video highlights
2014 Great Lakes Team Racing Championship about to set off
2014 Etchells North American Championship - Day 1
2014 U.S. Multihull Championship - Day 1
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Repechage top four determined in final flight
J/24 World Championship - 35th anniversary preview
470 Men and Women Worlds - Santander medal race line-up confirmed
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Day 8 images by Sail-World.com
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing stumbles in coastal race
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Americans ready for 470 medal races
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander: Action ramps up with end zone in sight
Big Boat Series - It's not the size, it's the length
ISAF Sailing World Championships Santander - Double French RS:X gold
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Day 8 images by Sailing Energy
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Finn leaders emerge from shifty Santander breeze
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - RS:X winner images by Barbara Sanchez
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio 2016 470 spots awarded
52 Super Series 2015 - Outlook looks hot for the 52 Super Series
Starboard Hatteras Wave Jam - Another early start on day 4
ISAF Sailing World - First entry leaves sailor's reputation in tatters   
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Four go through to quarter finals   
470 Men and Women Worlds - Champs take over leaderboard   
ISAF Sailing World Champ - Buckingham finishes with career-best result   
America's Cup: Oracle's Larry Ellison to step down as CEO   
Classic Yacht Regatta - Sonny takes top classic prize   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Buckingham finishes with career best   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio 2016 RS:X spots claimed   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Leaderboards shaping up in Santander + Video   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Giles Scott continues to extend lead   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Day 7 images by Sailing Energy   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Laser and Radial winner images by Jesus Renedo   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Medal Race images by Sail-World.com   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Dutch dominate Laser and Radial in Santander   
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing more than doubles overall lead   
J/24 World Championship - Excitement builds for Newport racing   
Volvo Ocean Race - Seb Marsset joins Team Alvimedica   
Fall Seamanship training opportunities at New York Yacht Club   
Rolex Big Boat Series: More images from San Francisco - Final Day   
AWT Hatteras Wave Jam action commences on day 3   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL WAS US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT