sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight


'Loki battling the waves off Tasman Island - 2012 Rolex Sydney Hobart'    © Rolex/Daniel Forster

The long predicted southerly change for the 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart race is expected to hit all areas around 11.00pm Saturday night.

Until then the fleet will experience hard running conditions of 20-30kts from the north, slowly switching to the NW, before quickly clocking around to a south westerly direction.

With a race finish time of just after midnight, expected race winner, Wild Oats XI will be right on the edge of the change and may miss it. The other supermaxis will be crossing Storm Bay on the final approach to Hobart and will cop the first of the expected 30kts plus headwinds.

Others like the 50fters will be reaching down the eastern side of Tasmania, having crossed Bass Strait with the assistance of the push from the strong northerly. They should be OK until rounding Tasman Island at the entrance to Storm Bay - and there they will cop a pasting from winds expected to average 30-40kts with gusts substantially above that strength.

From there on to the finish the boats will be beating into the teeth of the westerly gale, maybe turning the race into a big boat benefit on rating as the smaller boats at the end of the fleet struggle in the survival conditions.

The sea state may not be as extreme as would be expected in Bass Strait, due to the shelter afforded by the Tasmanian landmass, however seas and westerly swell is still expected to be significant particularly rounding the tip of Tasman Island.

Wind maps from Flinders Island and Bass Strait from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The key points to look at in this set of wind maps from Predictwind is the strong NE flow to the right, favouring those who have stayed out to sea, inshore the winds lighten and also swing north - a less favourable point of sailing. At 8.00pm we can see the wind swing north and start to lighten and swing NW in advance of the coming south westerly front and wind change. At 11.00pm the wind is well into the west, for those inshore. By 2.00am and 5.00am the breeze is increasing in strength and settling into a W-SW direction at a speed of 35-40kts average (add 15kts on top of that for gusts). The boats should be tight reaching out of Bass Strait and along the Tasmanian manian coast in these conditions.

1700hrs Saturday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

2000hrs Saturday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

2300hrs Saturday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

0200hrs Sunday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

0500hrs Sunday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo


Wind maps from Tasman Island and Storm Bay from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The points to look at in this set of maps which show the conditions likely to be experienced by those at the head of the fleet. Again we can see the stronng N - NE breeze pushing the lead yachts up the Tasmanian coast. At 8.00pm Saturday we can see the change moving across Storm Bay, earlier than it occurred in Flinders Island and Bass Strait. At 11.00pm the wind is swinging from the NW to the West and still a relatively moderate 15-20kts average with the usual factor of about 10kts for the gusts. From 2.00am to 8.00am on Sunday morning the wind cracks in, and settles into the West at 35kts plus average with gusts on top of that of 15kts. Seas are likely to be rough as the boats turn around Tasman Island. The boats will be on the wind after rounding Tasman Island before turning and heading for the finish line in Hobart.

Saturday 1700hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Saturday 2000hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Saturday 2300hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Sunday 0200hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Sunday 0500hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Sunday 0800hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo


by Richard Gladwell

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=117934

12:32 AM Sat 28 Dec 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race

Related News Stories:

28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Seven wins puts Wild Oats into Seventh Heaven
28 Dec 2013  Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Tensions reach boiling point
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Wild Oats XI finishes in Hobart to take win
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart - Wild Oats XI turns for home
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart 2013 - Now to Real Race -Handicap wide open
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Getting ready for the Big Bash
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Progress for the Tassie trio
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Closing in on the Tasmanian coast
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney to Hobart – Forty Hours into the race
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart Race 2013 - Of Gates, Pools and Level Crossings
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World





Volvo Ocean Race: Update from Team Vestas Wind in images by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz,


Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show - 13 things to See and do by Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show,








Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Classic Garda conditions on day 2 by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,
























Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Alessandro Rombelli's 'STIG' leads by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,




























Aldo Alessio Regatta - Three days of tight racing
PWA Alacati World Cup - First blood to Van Der Steen and Offringa
Oakcliff Sailing hosts the Nacra 17, 49er and 49erFX Nationals + Video
International 18ft Skiff Regatta underway on San Francisco Bay
Maxi Yacht Rolex Cup 2014 - Quality fleet for Maxi Classic
Sailing Champions League - which is Europe's best sailing club?
Weta fun at the Wine & Roses Regatta
Extreme Sailing Series: The Wave, Muscat claims victory on Cardiff Bay
International 14 World Championships 2015: Not just for boys
Rio de Janeiro achieves 50% treatment of sewage outflow *Feature
2014 AWT Quatro Desert Showdown - Event memorable videos
2014 18' Skiff Int Regatta: Day 1 at San Francisco - Reversal on beach
Emirates Team NZ: Last race boost cannot save team from table bottom
PWA Alacati World Cup - Furious slalom is upon us
J/111 World Championships - The Winner is Shmokin Joe!
J/24 US National Championship - Victory for Will Welles’ Cougar
Extreme Sailing Series: View the Final Day's action - Replay
NYYC Grandmasters Team Race - Reign continues for Noroton Yacht Club
WSSR announces new World Record Around Britain and Ireland
IFDS Worlds 2014 - Final day photos by Tim Wilkes
2014 Detroit Cup - Morvan wins   
Newport Bucket Regatta 2014 -Images by George Bekris   
IFDS Worlds 2014 - Final report: USA qualifies for Rio 2016   
Extreme Sailing Series: Absent With-Out Leave – Ben Ainslie Racing   
2014 IFDS World Championship - New champions claim medals   
2014 IFDS World Championships - Sunday’s race images by Tim Wilkes   
Shark World Championships underway in Toronto   
Anna Tunnicliffe: Alinghi second o'all - Extreme Sailing Series, Day 3   
Formula Kite World Championships - Nocher and Bridge crowned Champions   
Emirates Team NZ: Frustrating Day 3 in Extreme Sailing Series, Cardiff   
Extreme Sailing Series: Light winds help The Wave Muscat - Day 3   
Extreme Sailing Series 2014 Act five - Absent without leave – the wind   
IFDS Worlds 2014 - Images: Race day five   
Herreshoff Classic Regatta 2014 - Images by Ingrid Abery   
Youth Olympics - Gold to Argentinean and Chinese Techno 293 racers   
Youth Olympics Games Nanjing - Double Youth Olympic Gold for Singapore   
Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race 2014 - Two Handers celebrate   
Audi Melges 20 U.S. National Championship 2014 - Brazilian dance party   
IFDS Disabled Sailing Worlds Day 5 - USA fighting for Rio 2016 Berths   
J/111 World Championship 2014 - Day 4: Shmokin Joe consolidates lead   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL VIR US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT