sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 20, 2012 - The economic paradox
Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 20, 2012 - The economic paradox

' Image of the Day Close racing at Copa Del Rey 2012'    Max Ranchi ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 20, 2012

Equity markets remained positive despite the continued flow of weak economic data. The global economy is deteriorating and paradoxically risk appetite rises. This incongruous phenomena is a direct result of expectations of further Central Bank intervention to pump still more liquidity in a market awash.

European news was weak with Italian Production orders dropping dramatically and Spanish Bonds rising back towards the magical 7%! The EC bailout of Spanish banks continues and was endorsed by German lawmakers. In the US the news was equally as disturbing with the Weekly Jobless Claims rising by 34,000.

Existing Home Sales fell 5.4% reflecting the continued struggle for the housing sector. Commodities continued to firm supporting the higher yield currencies with the AUD 1.0425 on fire after breaking technical chart constraints. The KIWI broke the big, big figure again trading 0.8040.

The Australian economy continues to out perform global markets with the mining sector dragging the economy along.

The remainder of the economy is under extreme pressure and remains exposed and vulnerable to any dramatic impact of demand and price hits. Central Bank intervention remains the only game in town as fiscal solutions are not forthcoming

World’s first First AC72 unveiled - Emirates Team NZ AC72 first rigging - Viaduct Habour, Auckland, New Zealand -  Richard Gladwell   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 19, 2012

Ben Bernanke testified to Congress again overnight reiterating the Fed's intention to act if the economy stalled and employment declined. QE3 was not imminent though, as there are signs of life in the economy. Housing Starts rose to a high of 6.3% and Weekly Mortgage Applications spiked to 16.9%.

The good news was tempered by a fall in Building Permits by 3.7%. The Fed's Biege Book revealed the usual 'economy expanded at a moderate rate' and employment growth stalled. The economic news is not good, but is not catastrophic enough for the Fed to intervene. European markets remained stable with the EUR trading 1.2250.

Commodities remain well bid boosting the AUD which has traded strongly at 1.0350. Risk appetite has supported these currencies with yield advatage alhough the KIWI has faultered at the big figure of 0.8000.

Markets have gained all week so the focus will be the economy and earnings in the US markets which will drive global equities and currencies.

Image of the Day Collision imminent in J class regatta  J Class Association   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 18, 2012

Bernanke hinted that the Fed was prepared to pull the trigger on QE3 if the markets showed further signs of deterioration. He warned that the 'fiscal tax cliff' faced by the US and the EU debt crises remained significant risks to the economy.

Market analysts read QE3 possible which was a boost to equities and negative on the Dollar. This was a tonic for risk currencies which were already supported by commodity rallies from a weaker USD. The AUD is testing the significant 1.0330 which is a huge technical level after the RBA minutes showed the recent rates cuts are translating into significant growth within the economy.

AUD crosses all had substantial gains even against the shadow that has been the KIWI! The KIWI remains under the big figure 0.8000 with the cross look vulnerable. In the US, Industrial Production rose 0.4% and Manufacturing 0.7% providing some positives. CPI remained flat reflecting tepid grwoth as has been the case across Europe and other OECD countries.

NZ Inflation fell to 1% testing the RBNZ band on the downside. This is a reflection of growth and allows the Central Bank room to at least hold rates lower for an extended period! Now where have we heard that of late?

US Markets now rely on the Fed with no fiscal action expected this side of Christmas and the EU debt crises threatening. It is a precarious balancing act Central Banks are playing and extremely risky!

Nearing the finish of the first of the SSANZ Short handed Series - 2012  Richard Gladwell   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 17, 2012

Further grim news from China and Europe failed to spark any risk rally with US Retail Sales confirming the conservative character of the consumer.

In China, the Premier promised further action to stimulate the slowing economy translating that they are in some trouble. The IMF, has warned of continued slowing global growth unless Europe can address the debt crises. It is hard to see a solution in the short term and little will be done in the US with November Presidential elections.

The best to hope for would be the maintenance of the status quo and sideways moves until political solutions are forthcoming. Retail Sales in the US fell 0.5% reflecting the confidence of the all important US consumer.

The consumer is unlikely to spend and capital is likely to remain on the sidelines until decisions are made! Markets will now be looking to a move to 'real QE3' and not just operation twist so concentration will be on Bernanke when he appears before the Senate and House Tuesday/Wednesday. Expectations are for a new repurchase program to pump more liquidity into markets and print more money. What a great idea as this confirms the definition of insanity. New York Manufacturing showed some signs of life but widespread recovery in this sector is unlikely.

The Dollar has retreated on the market expectations with the EUR bouncing to 1.2275. Commodity currencies found support with weak Dollar prospects and the AUD rose back to 1.0250 and the KIWI 0.7970. Economic data will determine some market direction but Bernanke will be key overnight.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=99892

10:03 PM Thu 19 Jul 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

19 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 19, 2012 - Good news from USA
18 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 18, 2012 - US fiscal tax cliff
17 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 17, 2012 - Slow global growth
14 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 14, 2012 - Black Friday rally
13 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 13, 2012 - Consumer confidence up
12 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 12, 2012 - Taxmageddon looms
11 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 11, 2012 - NZ Home Sales spike
10 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 10, 2012 - EU talk fest resumes
08 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 7, 2012 - Employment stuck in US
06 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 6, 2012 - China, Europe cut rates
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World





Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Final race to decide champion by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,












Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show - 13 things to See and do by Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show,




Volvo Ocean Race: Update from Team Vestas Wind in images by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz,








Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Classic Garda conditions on day 2 by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,
























Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Alessandro Rombelli's 'STIG' leads by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,














Clagett Regatta names first Executive Director
Transatlantic Race - Fleet expanded for 2015 edition
IFDS World Championship overall
Anna Tunnicliffe: Alinghi finishes second - Extreme Sailing Series
2014 18' Skiff International Regatta - Day 2
2014 Audi Melges 20 World Championship - It's go time in Garda
2nd Annual Keith Dinsmoor Regatta September 13-14
Aldo Alessio Regatta - Three days of tight racing
PWA Alacati World Cup - First blood to Van Der Steen and Offringa
Oakcliff Sailing hosts the Nacra 17, 49er and 49erFX Nationals + Video
International 18ft Skiff Regatta underway on San Francisco Bay
Maxi Yacht Rolex Cup 2014 - Quality fleet for Maxi Classic
Sailing Champions League - which is Europe's best sailing club?
Weta fun at the Wine & Roses Regatta
Extreme Sailing Series: The Wave, Muscat claims victory on Cardiff Bay
International 14 World Championships 2015: Not just for boys
Rio de Janeiro achieves 50% treatment of sewage outflow *Feature
2014 AWT Quatro Desert Showdown - Event memorable videos
2014 18' Skiff Int Regatta: Day 1 at San Francisco - Reversal on beach
Emirates Team NZ: Last race boost cannot save team from table bottom
PWA Alacati World Cup - Furious slalom is upon us   
J/111 World Championships - The Winner is Shmokin Joe!   
J/24 US National Championship - Victory for Will Welles’ Cougar   
Extreme Sailing Series: View the Final Day's action - Replay   
NYYC Grandmasters Team Race - Reign continues for Noroton Yacht Club   
WSSR announces new World Record Around Britain and Ireland   
IFDS Worlds 2014 - Final day photos by Tim Wilkes   
2014 Detroit Cup - Morvan wins   
Newport Bucket Regatta 2014 -Images by George Bekris   
IFDS Worlds 2014 - Final report: USA qualifies for Rio 2016   
Extreme Sailing Series: Absent With-Out Leave – Ben Ainslie Racing   
2014 IFDS World Championship - New champions claim medals   
2014 IFDS World Championships - Sunday’s race images by Tim Wilkes   
Shark World Championships underway in Toronto   
Anna Tunnicliffe: Alinghi second o'all - Extreme Sailing Series, Day 3   
Formula Kite World Championships - Nocher and Bridge crowned Champions   
Emirates Team NZ: Frustrating Day 3 in Extreme Sailing Series, Cardiff   
Extreme Sailing Series: Light winds help The Wave Muscat - Day 3   
Extreme Sailing Series 2014 Act five - Absent without leave – the wind   
IFDS Worlds 2014 - Images: Race day five   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT