sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: 17 May 2012 - Greek negotiations stop
Collinson FX Market Commentary: 17 May 2012 - Greek negotiations stop

'Pic of the Day Despite the turmoil in the European headlines, life continues - boats moored at the dock in Barcelona - Europa Warm-Up 2012'    Alfred Farré / FNOB    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: 17 May 2012

The political crises in Greece envelopes Europe and the world as the Greek President calls an end to negotiations and appoints an interim Government led by a senior judge.

New elections will determine whether Greece remains in the EUR or returns to the drachma with polls pointing to anti-austerity parties gaining ground on the traditional political parties. The ECB is said to be pulling funding from certain Greek Banks who are under extreme pressure as depositors pull their EURO's to protect against withdrawal from the single currency.

In the US some strong economic data failed to impress markets weighed down with the European crises. Industrial Production rose 1.1% and Housing showed some further positive signs. Weekly Mortgage Applications rose 9.2% and Housing Starts gained 2.6% although this was tempered by a fall of 7% in Building Permits. The Fed released their minutes with some members calling for QE3 which gave equity markets some hope.

The EUR continued to decline at 1.2720 and the GBP 1.5920.

Commodity currencies flailed around with the KIWI suffering further declines after weaker economic data and growth reviewed lower. The AUD has consolidated below parity now trading 0.9915. The European crises will not be going away any time soon, with no resolution in sight, so prepare for further volatility.

Collinson FX market Commentary: 16 May 2012

The Political crises in Greece continued to unfold as talks halted with a call for a new election. The new Socialist French leader, Hollande, meets with Merkel and the results will be interesting. Hollande rejects austerity and proposes growth through investment. I am sure Merkel believes in the Growth concept but rejects further debt to fund it!

Germany lives this, with GDP rising by 0.5% for the quarter avoiding recession and dragging the EU to 0.0%. Many of the EU members are in 'double-dip' recession mired in debt and struggling through austerity to restructure their economies out of deficit in an attempt to reduce debt.

Greece is beyond this difficult struggle as debt forgiveness would not solve their structural deficit. They clearly have no appetite to address this with austerity! The risk aversion trade continued with the EUR falling to 1.2740 and the GBP testing 1.6000.

In the US, markets traded nervously driven by the train crash unfolding in Europe despite some positive economic data. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 17.09, smashing expectations, supported with some good news from the housing sector. The NAHB Home Price Index rose to 29 also beating expectations.

On the flip side, Retail Sales slipped back towards zero reflecting a nervous consumer. Demand crashed confidence pushing the commodity currencies lower.

The AUD traded 0.9950 after RBA minutes confirmed a slow economy and further interest rate cuts likely. The stream of weak economic data from NZ is belting the KIWI which is testing 0.7700 and looks extremely vulnerable!

Collinson FX market Commentary: 15 May 2012

The markets continued to plunge fueled by the Greek political impasse and turmoil ensuing. Traditional Greek Political parties do not have the numbers to do a deal and the new emerging parties refuse to accept austerity. This will force a new election next month with support for the new anti-austerity parties likely to grow. This all certainly points to Greece leaving the EURO which could be the first shoe to drop.

It also could be the life saving operation needed to remove the cancer in an effort to save the patient! The EUR continued to weaken as the crises unfolds moving down to 1.2840. Spanish Bonds reflected this rising to highs.

EU Industrial Production contracted under the effects of austerity but the more worrying developments are political. Merkel is losing momentum in Germany with movement towards the anti-austerity left. The new pro growth, left message is a figment of the imagination. It is deficit and debt overwhelming these nations and until they can control this, disaster approaches. The fiscal austerity could be overcome through monetary intervention by the ECB.

Printing more money may solve the immediate crises but undermines the wealth of citizens. This may be the answer as it is working in the US although it will come to naught as inflation grips the Zone as in Germany many years ago. Wheelbarrows instead of wallets.

In the US a dearth of economic data focused the markets on Europe and pushed equities lower.

Commodities continued to suffer with the associated currencies. AUD fell below parity trading 0.9965 and the KIWI following 0.7775. Risk off trades drive market vulnerability endorsing the May Sell phenomena.

Collinson FX market Commentary: 14 May 2012

Markets steadied to close the week despite some disturbing new from JP Morgan.

The big news that shook markets was for once not the political upheaval gripping Europe. JPMorgan announced a huge loss attributed to some French trader working out of the City of London. This loss was described as a hedging bet gone wrong but to lose over US$2 Billion in under six weeks, it reeks of derivative trades. The loss was substantial but the implications were far more far-reaching. The systemic losses that lead to the GFC had been realized apparently. This was not to happen again so who has their pants down? Further revelations this week will answer more questions.

Meanwhile Europe continued to wobble with the Greek impasse continuing and no end in sight.

The EUR dropped to test 1.2900 and the GBP has also fallen to 1.6070.

The crises engulfing Europe has killed risk appetite and demand pushing the AUD back to parity and the KIWI to around 0.7800.

This week holds plenty of economic indicators but markets will be concentrating on political developments in Europe.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=97292

8:37 PM Wed 16 May 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

16 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 16 May 2012 - KIWI testing .7700
15 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 15 May 2012 - Greece set to exit EURO
14 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 14 May 2012 - JP Morgan loss reeks
11 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 11 May 2012 - Greece bailed out
10 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 10 May 2012 - KIWI drops further
09 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 9 May 2012 - Euro politics crystallise
08 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 8 May 2012 - Europe elections dominate
07 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 7 May 2012 - KIWI drops below 80c
04 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 4 May 2012 - KIWI plunges, AUD soft
03 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 3 May - KIWI may drop lower today
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

Rolex China Sea Race 2014 - nip and tuck for IRC honours by RHKYC and Guy Nowell, Sail-World Asia, Hong Kong


America's Cup Book Review: Winging It - Oracle Team USA's comeback *Feature by Richard Gladwell Sail-World.com/nz,


























HUD Vision: An interview with Afterguard Marine’s Alex Moret *Feature by David Schmidt, Sail-World USA Editor, Seattle














America's Cup: Expected de Ridder penalty should be reduced *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz, Auckland, NZ
















Congressional Cup - Victory for Taylor Canfield and crew by Rich Roberts (As Amended by ISAF),




2014 Halifax – Saint-Pierre Ocean Race by Patricia Nelder, Nova Scotia




WWA Pro Card Qualifier - Pro Cards earned at Freedom Wake Park
Christmas Caribbean Rally - Top class sailors to compete
Earth Day boater tips
Anna Tunnicliffe - from CrossFit to Extreme 40's
Charleston Race Week - Photos by Chris Howell
Image Gallery: Stratis SL33 flies on the Waitemata
Audi Melges 20- Sperry Topsider Charleston Race Week - Light final day
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - PSP Logistics prepares for USA
ISAF Sailing World Cup Hyères - Crème of the crop to compete
Congressional Cup: Luna Rossa makes podium in first event
Int 14 World Championships 2015 launch new event website
International Optimist Regatta Clinic and Team Race - Register now!
Congressional Cup: World top rankers finish that way in Long Beach
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week Day 3 finale
America's Cup: Gino Morrelli outlines the new AC62 design
Doyle Sails New Zealand signs Andrew Brown as One Design Manager
America's Cup: Dean Barker's Blog - A sail with the Duke and Duchess *Feature
29er World Youth Sailing Week Easter regatta - Day 1 and 2 overall
C Thomas Clagett Jr Memorial Clinic/Regatta - Entries start to roll in
50th Congressional Cup: See the delayed coverage and media conferences
Clipper Race 10 Day 27: Closing stages - Qingdao to San Francisco   
Canfield, Williams, Bruni, Swinton in Congressional Cup final four   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week - Day 2   
Audi Melges 20 Charleston Race Week - Perfect conditions in Charleston   
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Full on ocean conditions for day 3   
PWA World Tour - A taste of things to come at La Torche + Video   
Women's International Match Racing Series kicks off in June   
Melges 32 Audi Tron Sailing Series - Action shots by Max Ranchi   
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Frustrating conditions   
Man rescued after falling overboard in Pacific taken to hospital   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Youth leading Melges 20   
Congressional Cup - Canfield leads toward Congressional Cup sailoffs   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Perfection for Day 1   
America's Cup: Coutts claims ISAF Jury on a crusade, backs Kiwi report *Feature   
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Will light winds hamper progress?   
Les Voiles de St. Barth - Preparing to rock Saint Barthélemy waters   
Clipper Round the World Race - OneDLL and Qingdao now in San Francisco   
America's Cup: Emirates Team NZ up against funding hurdle for year *Feature   
Melges 32 Sailing Series Napoli - Day 1 images by Stefano Gattini   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
X6XL NEW US