sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: 11 May 2012 - Greece bailed out
Collinson FX Market Commentary: 11 May 2012 - Greece bailed out

'Pic of the Day Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing, skippered by Ian Walker from the UK finish leg 6 from Itajai, Brazil, to Miami, USA, during the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12.'    Ian Roman/Volvo Ocean Race©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: 11 May 2012

Markets stabilised in Europe after further bailout funds were extended to Greece while they continue to negotiate a coalition Government.

Greeks wanted to stay in the EURO but do not want continued austerity!? Go figure.... the same reason they are in this situation. They do not want to work and earn what they spend. They want to survive on ever increasing budget deficits and debt.

The funding has been accepted by the EC, although this is an effort to ring-fence Greece to protect the rest of the Union. Spanish Banks remain under pressure with huge exposure to inflated residential real estate.

The Bank of England left rates unchanged with no requirement for further stimulus supporting the GBP trading 1.6160. The single currency held 1.2950 but is extremely vulnerable to further political upheavals.

In the US the Trade Balance continued to increase with Imports rising although Jobless claims remained steady.

Commodity currencies were soft after demand slipped with the KIWI dropping to 0.7950. The AUD held above parity after some surprisingly strong Employment data.

The Unemployment rate fell to 4.9% after analysts expected an increase. The political turmoil continues to undermine the economic conditions making a test of 1 likely.

Collinson FX market Commentary: 10 May 2012

Further losses hit equity markets as the political upheaval in Greece threatens the stability of the EC and the single currency. The EFSF (European Bailout Fund) agreed to extend a further payment to prevent economic collapse. This temporary solution covers negotiations within Greece to form a Government.

The more likely outcome will be another election with many hoping the extreme parties will suffer as the people come to their senses. The people do not want austerity and why would they? The problem is they have been living beyond their means for too long.

As long as this default does not spread, the EU supports the dysfunctional member.

Markets in the US were impacted by the weakness in risk assets with equities and commodities remaining soft. The EUR traded 1.2950 and the GBP 1.6140. Markets were subdued and appear extremely bearish testing technical levels on the downside.

In Australia the political turmoil continues as the budget was largely ignored with the Labor Government mired in corruption and deteriorating economic conditions. The AUD continued to slip trading 1.0060 and may test parity soon. Employment data may today reflect the recent economic downturn.

The KIWI has also suffered the risk-aversion trade falling under 0.7900. European markets remain the focus of attention and will drive the market direction.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 9 May 2012

The economic repercussions of the political upheaval in Europe were starting to crystallise and manifest in the markets.

Risk off trades became the norm with equities and commodities all taking a hammering. The ramifications from the move to the left politically are beginning to clarify. The new mantra from Europe is 'growth' but how? The presumption is Keynesian in that it requires investment for growth that requires capital. Private capital is not forthcoming so that would require Governmental investment. That cupboard is bare!

Europeans will struggle to borrow further as debt levels now are at a tipping point with deficits pushing them to unsustainable levels. That leaves capital creation in the form of money printing. The ECB would need to expand an already bloated balance sheet with all the dangerous implications that involves.

The EUR held 1.3000 overnight and the GBP continued to hold steady above 1.6150.

In the US, markets were hoping for a decoupling from Europe but has found globilisation has it faults as well as advantages. The NFIB Small Business Optimism rose although economic optimism contracted. Commodity demand fell and the associated currencies look vulnerable.

The Budget was released in Australia projecting a surplus for the first time in this Labor Governments history. Most would not put a lot of stock in this as budgets have been blown with intent over the last years. This Government will be lucky to survive the fiscal year let alone bring in a budget surplus. Continuing political instability destabilises the economy and some conclusion needs to be in the offing.

The KIWI dropped to 0.7880 and also looks to the downside. May looks set to fulfill the adage!

Collinson FX market Commentary: 8 May 2012

European elections dominated markets in Europe and the US with initial reaction negative but settling after digestion. France is the core of the EU and fears that the new Socialist Leader, Hollande , would bring the tenuous balance of the EU down, subsided.

He advocates the reversal of austerity imposed on France and promoted the growth strategy. His economic plan of growth without austerity proposes raising taxes and restoring social expenditure. This economic miracle will be amazing to behold and will be a blue print for the world to follow! Increase spending and tax while reducing budgetary controls?

The impact on debt will be interesting as budget deficits resume their expansion and test debt markets. The pressure should result in a blowout in bonds and thus result in a funding crises in the near future. Resolution of this crises will be interesting and must come from the socialist economic miracle handbook.

The Greek elections saw them turn away from the major political parties who imposed austerity and sought out parties on the extreme right and left leaving a jumbled mess. Communists and Neo-Nazis now move into the mix and it is hard to see a serious political alternative emerge. Greece must now be headed out of the EUR which is probably a positive for the EURO and Greece.

The single currency dipped below 1.3000 with all the upheaval but regained the key level as markets settled in to watch developments. The US markets digested these events with little response. After all was France not always Socialist anyway? Equity markets remained calm, as did the currency, but bears love the month of May. The Aussie regained some recent losses after some positive economic data coming in to today's budget release.

Business Confidence rose as did Retail Sales with a surprising jump in Building Approvals. The only downside was a fall in Job advertisements but the currency did rise to 1.0200 again. KIWI found some support and managed to regain 0.7950.

Details of the Australian budget will be digested but the political turmoil will overshadow the economic forecasts. Europe will remain the big driver in global markets and risk appetite.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 7 May 2012

Equity Markets had their worst week of 2012 as confidence plunged fueled by weakening economic data and political uncertainty surrounding the EU.

The French Election looks likely to promote the Socialist leader, Hollande, who advocates anti-austerity measures threatening the current status quo and spreading uncertainty. The EUR continued lower falling to 1.3075 and the GBP 1.6145.

In the US markets continued to retreat after slower jobs growth in the all important Non-Farm Payrolls number. The actual employment rate dropped to 8.1% but participation continued to plummet threatening any danger of a robust economic recovery.

Commodity currencies suffered as demand fell and economic conditions deteriorated in Australia and NZ.

The AUD slipped lower to 1.0175 and could test parity short-term. The KIWI was hit hard after falling below the major 0.8000 mark has slipped lower to 0.7950.

Risk appetite has disappeared and poor employment data globally reflects the tenuous recovery. Markets will focus on the EU and in particular the French elections and the percieved consequences. Downside looks likely after a week to forget!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=97090

12:06 AM Fri 11 May 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

10 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 10 May 2012 - KIWI drops further
09 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 9 May 2012 - Euro politics crystallise
08 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 8 May 2012 - Europe elections dominate
07 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 7 May 2012 - KIWI drops below 80c
04 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 4 May 2012 - KIWI plunges, AUD soft
03 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 3 May - KIWI may drop lower today
02 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 2 May - Australian RBA acts decisively
01 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 1 May - Spain into double recession
30 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 30 April - A week of rallies
27 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 27 April - Soft US Bull Run continues
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

2014 12 Metre North American Championships - Two days of a northerly (first strong, then light) and one day of a building southwesterly put six 12 Metre yachts to the test at their North American Championships, which were held off Newport, R.I. over September 26-28. Gunther Buerman’s (Newport, R.I.) KZ-3 and Dennis Williams’ (Hobe Sound, Fla.) Victory ’83 defended their titles ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at Les Voiles de Saint Tropez on the French Riveria , and provided this gallery of images of the classics and other yachts racing ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup - Melbourne - Don’t forget to enter the ISAF Sailing World Cup – Melbourne. There are only two days left to take advantage of the discounted entry price offer. ... [more]  

After Gmunden, Austria, in 2011 and Cala de' Medici, Italy, in 2012 and after a pained second place, same points with the Portogues 'Credite Egs' in Portosin, Spain, last year, the Italian crew coming from Puglia 'Euz II Monella Vagabonda', with Sandro Montefusco at the helm and his brother Paolo as a tactician, confirms for the third time the Platu 25 World Championship title. ... [more]  

Carlo Borlenghi was on deck for the first day of competition at Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on site for day one of racing at the 2014 Les Voiles de Saint Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

The final day of the 2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship ended up being a half day of sailing due to a complete shutdown of the wind. However, the fleet completed enough races to count Gold Round Robin 3 and crown Ladies and Gentlemen as the back-to-back Team Racing Champions. ... [more]  

Michigan, the Great Lakes State, was a fitting location as The National Sailing Hall of Fame (NSHOF) gathered for the fourth time in the organization’s history to fulfill its mission to recognize Americans who have made outstanding contributions to the sport of sailing. ... [more]  

The International Sailing Federation (ISAF) has published guidelines for candidates bidding to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship. Bids to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing Worlds must be received by Friday 24 October 2014. ... [more]  

The onboard medic-sailors competing in the upcoming Volvo Ocean Race have completed their last medical training. More than a basic first aid refresher course, the mandatory medical training each Volvo Ocean Race team had to carry out in the last few months and days are key to survival while at sea. ... [more]  

Erik Simonson was on the water at 2014 Melges 20 Pacific Coast Championship to capture these images. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Light air ruled the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada—and so did Rod Wilmer and Terry McLaughlin on Mandate. ... [more]  

The Extreme Sailing Series event in Istanbul seems to have only just finished, but already the containers are in the Ville de Nice set to gear up for this weeks penultimate regatta. Peter Burling and Blair Tuke are back onboard this week, fresh from their 49er World Championship win and looking to make it two wins from two events for Emirates Team New Zealand on the ?Extreme Sailing Series ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - In Sunday’s final matches in the Buddy Melges Challenge, Stephanie Roble and Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen showed the crowds on the bluffs of Lake Michigan how top class match racing should be sailed. It took five absolutely thrilling matches for the Danish crew to secure their first WIM Series event victory since last summer’s Danish Open. ... [more]  

America's Cup: Oracle Team USA's AC72 takes to the streets by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Oracle Team USA's winning AC72 takes to the streets of San Francisco, one year on from the Team's successful Defence of the America's Cup. This week the AC72 catamaran Oracle Team USA raced to victory is going to be a special guest at Oracle OpenWorld 2014 in San Francisco. ... [more]  

Matches between the world’s top two match racing skippers are always aggressive affairs on the Alpari World Match Racing Tour (AWMRT). In the pre-start of the first match, Canfield stuck two penalties on Williams, leaving the British boat playing catch-up. ... [more]  

Pantaenius, the world’s leading specialist yacht insurance company, has been at the forefront of yacht insurance for more than 40 years, earning a reputation for transparency and commitment to customer service that provides round-the-clock international support and reliable, speedy claims settlement. ... [more]  

What a great day for kiting at Kite Foil Gold Cup Australia 2014! 10-15 knot North Easterly and slight seas. Kites zooming around like supersonic mosquitoes but mosquitoes buzz whereas foiling kites are completely silent! ... [more]  

At the time that we are writing this, it is almost exactly a week since the first race took place at Wakatere Boating Club in New Zealand, followed by hundreds of races across the globe that we have been told attracted record numbers of sailors to your clubs ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - It was a picturesque day on Marblehead Harbor with plenty of sunshine for the second day of the U.S. Team Racing Championship. Once again, a lack of consistent breeze made for a challenging day for the Race Committee, umpires and competitors. Nevertheless, PRO Susie Schneider and her team were able to complete Round Robin One ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Saturday’s racing in the Buddy Melges Challenge on Lake Michigan, USA, saw more breeze than ever before during the week. Stephanie Roble used her local knowledge to show a clean sheet for the day, going in to Sunday’s conclusion with a one – zero lead over Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen in the final, sailed as a best of five match series. ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - A balanced field and limited racing usually leads to close races and a crowded leaderboard. This was the situation on Eagle Mountain Lake for the last day at the U.S. Adult Championship, hosted by Fort Worth Boat Club. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Five races are now in the books, and just three points separate the top three teams at the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at the 36th edition of the Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai, and provided this gallery of images of the classics racing off Cannes. ... [more]  

Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai: Cannes at its best by Eugenia Bakunova, www.mainsail.ru
The 36th edition of the Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai drew to a close on Saturday. Photographer Eugenia Bakunova was on the water at the 36th edition of the Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai, and provided this second gallery of images of the classics racing off Cannes. ... [more]  

David Gilmour was the only skipper to keep a clean sheet in today’s light-air action at the Dutch Match Cup in Lelystad. Team Gilmour swept aside their fellow Western Australians in a 3-0 Quarter Final against Keith Swinton and Team Alpari FX. The young Aussies then took the first match of their Semi-Final against the reigning ISAF World Champions, Taylor Canfield and US One. ... [more]  

Ian Williams and his GAC Pindar crew responded to a challenging qualifying session on Friday in Lelystad, to win a tense quarter-final against Phil Robertson (WAKA Racing), 3-2 and book a fifth consecutive semi-final in the Alpari World Match Racing Tour at the Dutch Match Cup. ... [more]  

The 44th Hobie 16 North American championships concluded on Friday with Jason Hess and Irene Abascal from Club Los Sauces, Guatemala taking the title. Mark and Grace Modderman from Long Branch, New Jersey followed in seond place and Pedro Colon and Monica Cabrera from Puerto Rico in third winning the tie break over Dan Borg and Liana Giovana from Canada. ... [more]  

The seven One Design VOR 65s were built by a consortium led by Green Marine in the UK. The first of those for the Team SCA women wad delivered in October 2013, the last was supplied to Team Vestas Wind in August 2014. ... [more]  

Over the last year we have interviewed Knut Frostad, the CEO of the Volvo Ocean Race four times, at times the stress has shown but yesterday just eleven days before the start of the 2014-2015 Race, he was like a different person, when we met with him again, at Volvo Ocean race headquarters portside in Alicante ... [more]  

NBC Sports Network, which was critically acclaimed for its 2013 coverage of the 34th America’s Cup, has signed on to provide full broadcast coverage in the U.S. of the 12th edition of the Volvo Ocean Race, the world’s premier offshore sailing race. Outside Television will also air complete TV programming – in addition to full digital coverage – of the nine-month long race from October 2014-June 20 ... [more]  

2014 J/24 World Championship - With just a few points between Will Welles Cougar (USA) and Mauricio Santa Cruz Bruschetta (BRA) there was no room for error in the final two races of the 2014 J/24 World Championship hosted by Sail Newport. ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Friday’s racing offered even less breeze than the previous days of the Buddy Melges Challenge. Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen won all her four matches of the day, to win the round-robin stage and secure her slot in the semi finals. ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 3
2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - Day 1 + Video
America's Cup: Then and now - Coutts on why Oracle won, and the Venue
Byte CII World Sailing Championship comes to Royal Varuna, Thailand
Dutch Match Cup: Canfield wins Qualifying, six set for Quarters battle
12 Metre North Americans - A blast from the America’s Cup past
2015 ISAF Sailing World Cup qualification system published
Volvo Ocean Race: Mapfre named as Spanish team sponsor + Video
Extreme Sailing Series returns to Nice for the penultimate Act of 2014
ISAF invites bids for 2016 Women's Match Racing World Championship
2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne - Teaming up
Mascalzone Latino Jr. named 2014 Melges 20 European Ranking Champion
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Le Berre keeps winning in Sheboygan
Hobie 16 Open North American Champ and Pan Am Games Qualifier - Day 4
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 2
J/105 North Americans - Wilmer and McLaughlin master light conditions
J/24 World Championship - Will Welles hangs on going into last day
Open 2.4mR World Championship on the horizon
Bart's Bash - Top photographers gain special entry
Platu 25 Worlds - EUZ II Monella Vagabonda is still leading in France
St. Barth Cata Cup - Olympic duel on the island   
Dutch Match Cup - High winds and big wipeouts in Lelystad   
Route du Rhum - Yann Guichard to sail Spindrift 2 solo   
Mirabaud Yacht Racing Image - Best sailing photo of the year sought   
Volvo Ocean Race - Yann Riou, getting you up close and personal   
Marseille One Design concludes GC32 racing season + Video   
World Yacht Racing Forum - Seventh edition to take place in Barcelona   
Record number of entries for the Sailing Champions League   
Platu 25 World Championship - Euz II Monella Vagabonda still leading   
Rolex Middle Sea Race Record - A possibility for Esimit Europa 2   
Richmond Yacht Club's International 14 Nationals: Return of 14 footers   
Buddy Melges Challenge - Le Berre leading, undefeated, in Sheboygan   
2014 J/24 World Championship - Will Welles holds advantage   
Etchells Lobster Bowl Regatta - Rob Hitchcock overall winner   
US Wabbit Nationals at Richmond YC   
YCs of Long Beach Charity Regatta - Local area sailors turn out   
U.S. Team Racing Championship to serve as Qualifier for ISAF Worlds   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - Champions confirm Abu Dhabi attendance   
Dutch Match Cup - Top three keep perfect score   
Second Star Sailors League grand finale to take place in Nassau   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT