sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: 4 May 2012 - KIWI plunges, AUD soft
Collinson FX Market Commentary: 4 May 2012 - KIWI plunges, AUD soft

'Pic of the Day: The Nacra 7 at the ISAF Evaluation Trials in Santander.'       Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: 4 May 2012

Markets fell overnight with the the ECB keeping rates unchanged at 1% but with ECB Head, Draghi, observing worsening economic conditions. He also indicated the EC was 'subject to downside risks' which corroborates recent economic data. The EUR slipped to 1.3140 and the GBP 1.6175 as risk aversion moved to the safety of the USD.

In the US negative sentiment shifted from Europe and was reinforced with the ISM Non-Manufacturing report falling to 53.5. This was down from 56 and much lower than expected having a huge impact as services are 90% of the economy. Weekly Jobless Claims fell but expectations are not bullish for the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls tonight.

Commodities suffered falling demand and the KIWI was hammered after some very disappointing employment data. Unemployment was expected to fall to 6.2% reflecting improving economic circumstances but shocked many with a sharp rise to 6.7%.

The KIWI plunged to test the key 0.8000 level. The AUD showed continuing signs of weakness, 1.0250, with all the political fallout and the all important budget coming in the next few days.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 3 May 2012

The EU debt crises simmered with likely triggers from all over the zone starting with the the French Presidential elections. In economic news the EU PMI hit a 3 year low falling to 45.9. Employment continued to rise with breaches over the 10% mark.

In the US the first of the major jobs reports disappointed with the ADP adding only 119,000 Private Sector jobs. Expectations are closer to 170,000 and does not bode well for the Non-Farm Payroll Friday. Factory Orders in the US also fell to a 3 year low dropping 1.5%. After a period of steady growth in the US the economy seems to have stalled testing the steel of investors.

The EUR drifted lower to 1.3150 and the GBP below 1.6200. Commodity prices also weakened pushing the associated currencies lower. The KIWI is testing the 0.8100 with some important employment data out today.

In Australia political turmoil ensues and the economy cannot prosper under those conditions. The AUD struggled around 1.0300 suffering the fallout from the unexpected 50 RBA rate cut. Economic conditions have triggered the RBA moves so it cannot be misconstrued as positive.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 2 May 2012

The Bulls remain in charge as markets defy the adage regarding selling in May.

Looking for reasons to buy was not hard as analysts focused on the ISM Activity report hitting a 2 year high rising to 54.8 from 53.4 beating expectations. Construction Spending also turned from negative to positive reinforcing the good economic news in the US.

Markets were closed across Europe celebrating May Day although the UK managed to post some poor PMI numbers falling below expectations. Risk appetite rose with the confidence in the US markets and the EUR took advantage rising to 1.3235. The GBP held, despite the weak data, at 1.6225.

The big news came from Australia with the RBA acting decisively to cut interest rates by 50 points! The benign inflationary pressures and floundering economy aided the RBA which was also under extreme political pressure from a embattled Labor party. This drove the currency lower by a cent from the surprise extent of the move. Economic data supported the move with House Prices continuing to stumble and Commodity prices drifting lower.

Australia is under extreme pressure politically, with the Government looking extremely vulnerable and teetering on the edge. Political instability does not fill markets with confidence so a need to act by calling an election and an end to the instabilty may be likely, if not compulsory. Gillard clings to power like a flondering man in quicksand. The train wreck must stop!

The KIWI showed signs of weakness tainted by the Australian quandary holding 0.8150.

Collinson FX market Commentary: 1 May 2012

Spain confirmed that they were back in recession after the last quarter GDP contracted 0.3%. This was the second consecutive quarter of contraction and confirmed the 'double-dip' recession. This comes after S&P downgraded Spanish sovereign debt and 16 leading Spanish Banks. This will further raise interests rates adding to the pressure austerity is imposing on the economy.

The EUR slipped back to 1.3230 and the GBP 1.6225 as risk appetite edged lower.

In the US the Chicago Fed's Business Activity Indiex fell to 56.2 from 62.2 while Personal Income and Expenditure remained fairly flat. This is the beginning of May which normally heralds a 'sell-off' so markets will look to employment reports in the US to trigger an excuse and break downside technical levels.

Commodities drifted from last weeks highs with the AUD slipping back to 1.0400 with New Home Sales falling 9.4%.

Australia is falling deeper into political crises with the Labor Leader, Gillard, sacking the Speaker of the house and another key caucus supporter testing her knife edge majority in the lead up to the budget. The RBA Interest rate decision is expected to cut interest rates today after concerted political pressure and signs of a slowing economy.

In NZ the KIWI slipped back to 0.8170 in line with international markets. NZ trade data was fairly positive but Building Permits skyrocketed 19.8%.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 30 April 2012

Friday completed a week of rallies with the absence of further bad news from Europe and some strong US corporate earning.

Housing data was mixed but the US learnt the economy was growing at a slower rate than expected.

The US GDP came in at 2.2% down from 3%. The poor economic data failed to spook equities markets which completed a very strong rally at the close.

The EUR reflected the strong appetite for risk rising to 1.3250 and the GBP up to 1.6250.

Commodities also continued recent strength with the AUD hitting 1.0475 and the KIWI 0.8225.

The coming week holds a slew of economic data led by employment data in the US. Chinese PMI and European numbers will also hold interest. The RBA has their rate decision meeting Tuesday with the ECB later in the week.Remember the old adage...'Sell in May...Go away!'

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=96817

9:36 PM Thu 3 May 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

03 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 3 May - KIWI may drop lower today
02 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 2 May - Australian RBA acts decisively
01 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 1 May - Spain into double recession
30 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 30 April - A week of rallies
27 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 27 April - Soft US Bull Run continues
26 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 26 April - US predicts moderate growth
24 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 24 April - Markets unwind, Kiwi falls
23 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 23 April - Markets end positively
20 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 20 April - Anzac dollars fall further
19 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 19 April - Kiwi dollar falls
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World

Volvo Ocean Race: Fleet charges the door of the Doldrums Casino *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
The Volvo Ocean Race has lifted intensity again on Day 9 with the fleet spread across 100nm of ocean and charging in a line for the turning point of Fernando de Noronha, 220nm off the Brazilian coast. ... [more]  

The first eight days of the 2014-15 Volvo Ocean Race have been filled with more excitement and tighter racing than anyone could have anticipated. Up until Saturday morning, Leg One has left the fleet with few tactical options and therefore has kept everyone tightly packed as one unit of seven boats. ... [more]  

As expected the third day of the 2014 La Torche PWA Grand Slam proved to be a quiet affair with very light winds throughout the day. After a chilly and overcast start, the sun eventually broke through to produce another beautiful afternoon in La Torche. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15. The sun’s out. It’s warm – not too hot, but warm enough for just a tee shirt. Ian Walker is stood at the helm of his Emirati boat, generous Atlantic trade winds whistling past his ears. 'We’re going straight through,' he claims, confidently. 'What Doldrums? - they’re going to say. Azzam isn’t even going to slow down.' ... [more]  

At 1700 CET in the Rolex Middle Sea Race, 113 yachts had rounded Stromboli, the active volcano that marks the most northerly point of the course. Race leader on the water, Esimit Europa 2, was less than 20 miles from Favignana and preparing to turn south with 289 miles to go and is expected to finish the race in the early hours of Wednesday 22 October, which would be well outside the course record ... [more]  

It is with great pleasure that the Star Sailors League announces that two more top Brazilian sailors will be joining the fleet of 20 super-champions taking part in the Star Sailors League Finals 2014 being held for the second consecutive year at Nassau Yacht Club in the Bahamas between December 1st and 7th. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Day Nine onboard Team Alvimedica. It’s hard to explain the complexity of the weather in this part of the world. No computer model or forecaster can accurately predict the winds because the air here is dry and warm, 23c now, and the typical barometric pressure gradients that generate them become very weak. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Day Nine onboard Team SCA. We’re a boat on a mission: catch the fleet. And they’re getting closer by the mile. The first time I sailed past Cape Verde islands was in 2010 when I was helping deliver a catamaran from Gibraltar to Antigua, W.I. ... [more]  

Thailand bids for 2016 IODA ‘Optimist’ World Championships by Jordan Rumsby, Royal Varuna Yacht Club
Pattaya's Royal Varuna Yacht Club has submitted a bid to host the 2016 International Optimist Dinghy Association World Championships, offering the world's most talented junior sailing teams a chance to experience the steady wind, sunshine, smiles, great food, and family-friendly attractions of Thailand's top dinghy sailing destination ... [more]  

Photographer Ellen Hoke was on the water at the Farr 40 Worlds sailed from the St Francis Yacht Club, San Francisco, and provided this second gallery of images from the Final Day - Day 4 Prizegiving ... [more]  

Bill Green - builder and sailor passes on by Malcolm McKeag, Scuttlebutt Europe, Lymington, England:
Bill Green, San Francisco-born sailor, Navy jet jockey (not a lot of people know that); US Coastguard; shrimp-boat hand (not a lot of people know that either); One Ton Cup winner and most latterly proprietor of Green Marine slipped quietly away from this life ... [more]  

Tom Burton (AUS) retained World #1 in the Laser after a tremendous fight back at ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao where he picked up bronze. The Australia had a tough opening day, finishing down the pack in both races but as the week progressed he worked his way up and sealed bronze on the final day to keep hold of World #1. ... [more]  

Photographer Ellen Hoke was on the water at the Farr 40 Worlds sailed from the St Francis Yacht Club, San Francisco, and provided this gallery of images from the Final Day - Day 4 ... [more]  

Photographer Ellen Hoke was on the water at the Farr 40 Worlds sailed from the St Francis Yacht Club, San Francisco, and provided this gallery of images from Day 2 ... [more]  

Rolex Middle Sea Race 2014 - A hard day's night by Media Royal Malta Yacht Club
Rolex Middle Sea Race - As high pressure moved in from the north, the area around Stromboli had virtually no gradient wind and for those yachts yet to reach Stromboli, a south flowing current has slowed proceedings even further. For the competitive offshore yacht racer, performing well in light wind is more difficult than blasting through a storm at top speed. ... [more]  

34th Student Yachting World Cup - France knew today its best day since the beginning of the competition. They spent the two races at the very first positions, even rivaling with the ultra-dominant English team. They showed today an astounding panache, and can now hope to improve their ranking before the end of the SYWoC. ... [more]  

The Chinese entry Donfeng Race Team, has lost her lead on Day 9 of the Volvo Ocean Race, with boats on the east and western side of the course threatening. Two hours before the most recent sked at 0640hrs UTC, Dongfeng was still being listed by Volvo Ocean Race as the leader. But Team Brunel is now listed as the leader, but on a time taken projection basis, Team Brunel is fifth. ... [more]  

Flying Dreams is a movie directed by the talented Elsa Blayau is an ode to ocean, water sports and femininity. Based on an original idea from Alex Udin, Elsa Blayau transformed the project to a complete story and brought it to reality with this realization. ... [more]  

The 70th running of the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia’s annual Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race is living up to expectation with 98 high-calibre entries received so far, from Sean Langman’s 1932 built Maluka of Kermandie, the oldest and smallest boat at nine metres, to the super maxis. The most talked about boat though, is the Verdier Yacht Design and Vplp 100 footer, Comanche. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Blogs from the Boats - Leg 1, Day 8 plus Videos *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.nz/com
Several of the On Board Reporters aboard, provide their unique views of Leg 1, Day 8 of the Volvo Ocean Race - in text, images and video. Catch a birthday at sea on board Team Brunel, and unravel the fishing net with Team SCA Hear and see how the crews coped with the front that came through in the nigh ... [more]  

Shala Youngerman and her team from Southwestern Yacht Club won the 23rd annual Linda Elias Memorial Women’s One-Design Challenge Sunday in this two-day fleet race regatta organized and sponsored by the Long Beach/Los Angeles Women’s Sailing Association and hosted by Long Beach Yacht Club. ... [more]  

After three days of racing in the Valparaíso bay, the Santander team was crowned champion of the Off Valparaíso Race, first stage of the Soto 40 South American Tour that was held in the Yacht Club de Chile with the participation of eight boats. ... [more]  

Day two of the La Torche PWA Grand Slam saw the glorious golden sunshine continue together with the waves, but unfortunately the wind remained absent again. To keep the crowds entertained Jules Denel (JP / NeilPryde) and birthday boy - Antoine Martin (JP / NeilPryde) - attempted a bit of wave tow-in with varying degrees of success, as Antoine Albeau (RRD / NeilPryde) took control of the jet ski. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Dongfeng consolidates lead on Day 8 *Feature by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
After cutting between the Cape Verde islands, separating from the rest of the Volvo Ocean Race fleet, Chinese entry, Dongfeng gained an initial significant lead, which they are in the process of consolidating. One routing option for the then race leader Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing, gave the team the option of cutting inside the island group, they are close to the optimum course for Fernando off Brazil ... [more]  

RS:X Youth World Championships - All set for Clearwater action by RS:X Olympic Windsurfing Class Association
Mild, breezy weather, temperate Gulf of Mexico waters and wide bands of sugar white sand - this is the place where 2014 RS:X Youth World Windsurfing Championship racing is about to start. 'Clearwater Beach is the perfect spot to play host to the young windsurfers gathering here from around the world for international competition', says Frank Chivas. ... [more]  

The first 24 hours of the Rolex Middle Sea Race has seen the fleet progress slowly up the eastern seaboard of Sicily towards the Strait of Messina. By 16.00 on day two, a mere ten per cent of the competition had passed through the Strait and started the leg to Stromboli, where they will turn west towards the Egadi Islands. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - If only it were that easy. Amazingly we did manage to replace the rudder and regain first position amongst the fleet however just hours afterwards, navigator Pascal Bidégorry was faced with an important strategic decision. ... [more]  

Ian Moore, navigator on Cookson 50, Mascalzone Latino, is no stranger to the Rolex Middle Sea Race, this is his fourth and Ian was part of the winning crew on Bryon Ehrhart's TP52, Lucky in 2010. Ian describes the tactical nuances of the first night at sea. ... [more]  

Top videographer and photographer, John Navas, was on the water for the final day of the Farr 40 Worlds being sailed on San Francisco. ... [more]  

The brilliant conditions of last week’s opening race of the season were duplicated today when the Australian 18 Footers League’s Major A. Frizelle Trophy race was sailed in a 20–knot North East wind on Sydney Harbour. Current JJ Giltinan champion Gotta Love It 7 team of Seve Jarvin, Sam Newton and Scott Babbage showed why they are the world’s best team. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race - The fleet has finally left the West African Coast. They are now in the trade winds, making the westerly course across the Atlantic Ocean to FernandoThey will find the Cape Verde Islands in the way and that will cause some issues of navigation. ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - It was a light wind, big wave finish at ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao as the medallists were decided across the six fleets competing on the waters of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Sailing Competition. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Farr 40 World Championship - In life, timing is everything. And, after seven years in the Farr 40 class, the timing was right for New York financier Alex Roepers to achieve a long-held goal of winning the Rolex Farr 40 World Championship. ... [more]  

Coast Guard rescues two near Wachapreague
2014 Off Valparaíso Race - Day 2
La Torche PWA Grand Slam - Massive swell on day 1
Volvo Ocean Race: Welcome to Al's Ocean Cafe
Argo Group Gold Cup survives Hurricane Gonzalo
Volvo Ocean Race: Dongfeng regains lead after incident packed Day 7 *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race: Dramatic video of Dongfeng rudder replacement
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica bounces back
Volvo Ocean Race - Team SCA expecting the expected + Video
Rolex Middle Sea Race - New record for Mediterranean classic
ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - Medallists decided across six fleets
Volvo Ocean Race - Impressive turnaround for Dongfeng Race Team +Video
Volvo Ocean Race: Race closer than leaderboard suggests - Leg 1, Day 6
Volvo Ocean Race: Dongfeng Race Team break rudder after collision
2014 Rolex Farr 40 World Championship - Famous breeze frustrates
2014 Off Valparaíso Race - Day 1
Sunfish World Championship - Victory for Argentina's Francisco Renna
Volvo Ocean Race - Feeling the pressure six days in
Volvo Ocean Race - Alvimedica cautiously cruising down coast of Africa
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Brunel still within striking distance
Volvo Ocean Race - Testing times for Team SCA + Video   
Beijing 2008 Olympic legacy lives on in Qingdao + Video   
La Torche PWA Grand Slam - A return nearly 20 years in the making   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - Game on for remaining fleets   
Farr 40 Worlds: Day 2 Image and Video gallery *Feature   
Day 5 of the Chris Benz Lüderitz Speed Challenge: 4 more records!   
Volvo Ocean Race: Coastal racing at its best - Leg 1, Day 5   
Chris Poole new number one Open Match Racer in U.S.   
Rolex Farr 40 World Champs - Plenty leads as Struntje Light impresses   
2014 Soto 40 South American Tour - Back in action   
Volvo Ocean Race - Mail arrival brings excitement for Team SCA + Video   
Volvo Ocean Race - Jens Dolmer getting restless onboard Team Brunel   
Volvo Ocean Race - Too close for comfort as fleet pushes on + Video   
Foils or not? Explanations from IMOCA Class President Jean Kerhoas   
Ben Ainslie's Olympic Finn sails are up for auction   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica goes to school   
Volvo Ocean Race - Intensity level rises for Dongfeng Race Team   
China Cup Regatta - Olympic medallists and offshore legends to race   
St. Barth Cata Cup - Friendly US rivalry on the Island   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - Tight and tactical racing + Video   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT