sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Volvo Ocean Race - Predicting Mar Mostro's ETA
Volvo Ocean Race - Predicting Mar Mostro's ETA

'Shannon Falcone trims the main for Jono Swain on the helm. Onboard PUMA Ocean Racing powered by BERG during leg 6 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12'    Amory Ross/Puma Ocean Racing/Volvo Ocean Race©    Click Here to view large photo

Volvo Ocean Race, Day 11 of Leg 6. Amory Ross, MCM for Puma Ocean Racing powered by Berg, reports on the crew's progress:

'I really miss the hot chocolate,' Rome Kirby.

Our daily routines are predictable enough. Each day is more or less the same and at some point day 17 begins to feel like day 12, which very much felt like day six. One variable of inconsistent kind though, and one of great interest to everyone onboard, is Tom’s ETA, or estimated finishing date. Our predicted arrival is something we all want to know and for a variety of reasons, but it’s a figure that is also in continuous flux.

It can be amazingly difficult to predict when you’re going to arrive at a destination 3,000 miles away in a landscape of geographic uncertainty, but today’s software, weather files, and boat performance profiles combine to give it an honest try. There are family flights to book, boat repairs to schedule, food and fuel to manage, and the high hopes of the 11 of us waiting for a burger, beer, and a proper shower, and they all hinge on a very simple process.

Somewhere in the world somebody begins by analysing the weather. Their findings are digitized into 'grib' models, a virtual record of predicted winds spanning up to several weeks out for the entire globe. These files are loaded into the onboard routing software that use our current location and our boat’s performance polars (tables that suggest what speeds Mar Mostro should attain at any combination of wind speed and wind angle) to best map our course to the next waypoint.

Obviously, there is more than one way to decipher the weather, so there are multiple models to choose from. With each update (several times a day) Tom downloads either the 'EC,' (short for…ECWF), or the 'GFS,' (…God Forged Scheduling?), loads it into the software, and out comes an ETA. Routing doesn’t take certain things into consideration, things like a rough sea state that would prevent us from reaching our predicted polar speeds, so there’s a certain degree of human interpretation for Tom before he decides on a route and a date, but eventually a day is picked. The closer we get, the more accurate the prediction power is, but one thing that’s for sure is that we can never be sure.

In the context of this leg, it looks like we’ll be one or two days late, so it’s time to start squirreling away some food again, just like we did on the last leg. Extra bars for lunch instead of a meal when the wind is light, split the chicken tikka – a notoriously large serving – into two meals, things like that. It’s not the models’ fault, or the forecasters that make them, because weather is weather and it changes. You can’t suggest that conditions are 'supposed' to be anything, because they’re unpredictable by nature. All we can do is hope the models are more accurate than not!

Michi Mueller parts the seas. Onboard PUMA Ocean Racing powered by BERG during leg 6 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12 -  Amory Ross-Puma Ocean Racing-Volvo Ocean Race©   Click Here to view large photo

Puma Ocean Racing website
Volvo Ocean Race website


by Amory Ross

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=96801

11:22 AM Thu 3 May 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011-12 Volvo Ocean Race

Related News Stories:

03 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Battle at the head of the fleet continues
03 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race: Camper leads but navigational nightmare ahead
03 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Groupama escape the Doldrums
02 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race: Tight at front as fleet exit Doldrums
02 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Monotony disrupted onboard Mar Mostro
02 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Combat continues for Puma
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma Ocean Racing plagued by clouds + Video
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma aims to stay in the lead + Video
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma corrects the error of their ways
01 May 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Groupama prepares to tackle the Doldrums
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World



ISAF Santander - Upwards path for Austrian women's 470 crew + video by Luissa Smith, International 470 Class Association,
























2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Farr 40 Day 4 by William Wagner, San Francisco








































2014 J/70 World Championship - Healy, Abdullah, Becker and Borges win
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Full-blown, once again
ISAF Worlds - Americans jump up Laser and Laser Radial leaderboard
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Farr 40 Day 3
America's Cup: Luna Rossa sailing with two foiling AC45's + Video
Extreme Sailing: Emirates Team NZ retain second overall
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio Olympic Laser spots snapped up
Rolex Swan Cup - All set for final showdown
Upper Midwest sailors need help to take it to the next level
ISAF Sailing World Championships - RS:X action begins in Santander
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Americans rise in Laser and Radial
Extreme Sailing Series - A remarkable penultimate day’s racing + Video
Marseille One Design - GC32 GDF Suez unstoppable in the light
Rolex Swan Cup - Day 3 images by Carlo Borlenghi
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Images of the leaders in Santander
Rolex Big Boat Series - Good day for Double Trouble
Rolex Big Boat Series - Day 2 images by Erik Simonson
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - TP52 fleet ready for tricky race tracks
Rolex Big Boat Series - Plenty maintains lead
2014 Asia Pacific Student Cup - Count down begins
Extreme Sailing Series: Live coverage of Day 3 - view here   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - Going away   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - Practice makes perfect   
2014 J/70 World Championship - Contrasting conditions on Day 4   
Rolex Big Boat Series - 50 years of big boat racing: a retrospective   
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Day 2   
Snipe Western Hemisphere and Orient Champ: Rios takes the Championship   
Volvo Ocean Race: Leg Zero signals start of the significant racing   
Extreme Sailing Series: Physically demanding racing for BAR on Day 2   
Emirates Team NZ: Holding second overall after Day 2 in Istanbul   
Extreme Sailing Series: A force to be reckoned with in Istanbul +Video   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Day 1 images by Jesus Renedo and Pedro Martinez   
Marseille One Design: GC32's Armin Strom storms ahead on day 2 + Video   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Racing underway in Santander +Video   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Erika Reineke claims Radial race win   
Santander Worlds 2014 Mat Belcher (Part II) *Feature   
Rolex Swan Cup - Mistral keeps fleet shoreside   
PWA Cold Hawaii World Cup rescued by wave of local support   
ISAF Sailing World Championship, Santander - Opening ceremony images   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - Team Alvimedica geared up for Leg Zero   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT