sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: 3 May - KIWI may drop lower today
Collinson FX Market Commentary: 3 May - KIWI may drop lower today

'Viaduct Harbour - Volvo Ocean Race fleet leaves for start of leg 4'    Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: 3 May 2012

The EU debt crises simmered with likely triggers from all over the zone starting with the the French Presidential elections. In economic news the EU PMI hit a 3 year low falling to 45.9. Employment continued to rise with breaches over the 10% mark.

In the US the first of the major jobs reports disappointed with the ADP adding only 119,000 Private Sector jobs. Expectations are closer to 170,000 and does not bode well for the Non-Farm Payroll Friday. Factory Orders in the US also fell to a 3 year low dropping 1.5%. After a period of steady growth in the US the economy seems to have stalled testing the steel of investors.

The EUR drifted lower to 1.3150 and the GBP below 1.6200. Commodity prices also weakened pushing the associated currencies lower. The KIWI is testing the 0.8100 with some important employment data out today.

In Australia political turmoil ensues and the economy cannot prosper under those conditions. The AUD struggled around 1.0300 suffering the fallout from the unexpected 50 RBA rate cut. Economic conditions have triggered the RBA moves so it cannot be misconstrued as positive.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 2 May 2012

The Bulls remain in charge as markets defy the adage regarding selling in May.

Looking for reasons to buy was not hard as analysts focused on the ISM Activity report hitting a 2 year high rising to 54.8 from 53.4 beating expectations. Construction Spending also turned from negative to positive reinforcing the good economic news in the US.

Markets were closed across Europe celebrating May Day although the UK managed to post some poor PMI numbers falling below expectations. Risk appetite rose with the confidence in the US markets and the EUR took advantage rising to 1.3235. The GBP held, despite the weak data, at 1.6225.

The big news came from Australia with the RBA acting decisively to cut interest rates by 50 points! The benign inflationary pressures and floundering economy aided the RBA which was also under extreme political pressure from a embattled Labor party. This drove the currency lower by a cent from the surprise extent of the move. Economic data supported the move with House Prices continuing to stumble and Commodity prices drifting lower.

Australia is under extreme pressure politically, with the Government looking extremely vulnerable and teetering on the edge. Political instability does not fill markets with confidence so a need to act by calling an election and an end to the instabilty may be likely, if not compulsory. Gillard clings to power like a flondering man in quicksand. The train wreck must stop!

The KIWI showed signs of weakness tainted by the Australian quandary holding 0.8150.

Collinson FX market Commentary: 1 May 2012

Spain confirmed that they were back in recession after the last quarter GDP contracted 0.3%. This was the second consecutive quarter of contraction and confirmed the 'double-dip' recession. This comes after S&P downgraded Spanish sovereign debt and 16 leading Spanish Banks. This will further raise interests rates adding to the pressure austerity is imposing on the economy.

The EUR slipped back to 1.3230 and the GBP 1.6225 as risk appetite edged lower.

In the US the Chicago Fed's Business Activity Indiex fell to 56.2 from 62.2 while Personal Income and Expenditure remained fairly flat. This is the beginning of May which normally heralds a 'sell-off' so markets will look to employment reports in the US to trigger an excuse and break downside technical levels.

Commodities drifted from last weeks highs with the AUD slipping back to 1.0400 with New Home Sales falling 9.4%.

Australia is falling deeper into political crises with the Labor Leader, Gillard, sacking the Speaker of the house and another key caucus supporter testing her knife edge majority in the lead up to the budget. The RBA Interest rate decision is expected to cut interest rates today after concerted political pressure and signs of a slowing economy.

In NZ the KIWI slipped back to 0.8170 in line with international markets. NZ trade data was fairly positive but Building Permits skyrocketed 19.8%.


Collinson FX market Commentary: 30 April 2012

Friday completed a week of rallies with the absence of further bad news from Europe and some strong US corporate earning.

Housing data was mixed but the US learnt the economy was growing at a slower rate than expected.

The US GDP came in at 2.2% down from 3%. The poor economic data failed to spook equities markets which completed a very strong rally at the close.

The EUR reflected the strong appetite for risk rising to 1.3250 and the GBP up to 1.6250.

Commodities also continued recent strength with the AUD hitting 1.0475 and the KIWI 0.8225.

The coming week holds a slew of economic data led by employment data in the US. Chinese PMI and European numbers will also hold interest. The RBA has their rate decision meeting Tuesday with the ECB later in the week.Remember the old adage...'Sell in May...Go away!'

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=96778

8:17 PM Wed 2 May 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

02 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 2 May - Australian RBA acts decisively
01 May 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 1 May - Spain into double recession
30 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 30 April - A week of rallies
27 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 27 April - Soft US Bull Run continues
26 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 26 April - US predicts moderate growth
24 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 24 April - Markets unwind, Kiwi falls
23 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 23 April - Markets end positively
20 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 20 April - Anzac dollars fall further
19 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 19 April - Kiwi dollar falls
18 Apr 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: 18 April - Appetite for risk taking
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World





A complete recap of the most successful Melges 20 World Championship by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,












ISAF Santander - Upwards path for Austrian women's 470 crew + video by Luissa Smith, International 470 Class Association,
























2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Farr 40 Day 4 by William Wagner, San Francisco


























GBR aiming for first ever Nacra 17 Games berth at Santander Worlds
Volvo Ocean Race: Man and sail overboard as Leg 0 serves up drama
ISAF Sailing World Championships Santander 2014 – Images by Dan Ibsen
Santander Worlds – already a spectator success
ISAF Sailing World Championships Santander 2014 - Day 3 morning report
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - Tales from the extreme
Volvo Ocean Race: Latest starter wins opening race
2014 J/70 World Championship - Healy, Abdullah, Becker and Borges win
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Full-blown, once again
ISAF Worlds - Americans jump up Laser and Laser Radial leaderboard
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Farr 40 Day 3
America's Cup: Luna Rossa sailing with two foiling AC45's + Video
Extreme Sailing: Emirates Team NZ retain second overall
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio Olympic Laser spots snapped up
Rolex Swan Cup - All set for final showdown
Upper Midwest sailors need help to take it to the next level
ISAF Sailing World Championships - RS:X action begins in Santander
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Americans rise in Laser and Radial
Extreme Sailing Series - A remarkable penultimate day’s racing + Video
Marseille One Design - GC32 GDF Suez unstoppable in the light
Rolex Swan Cup - Day 3 images by Carlo Borlenghi   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Images of the leaders in Santander   
Rolex Big Boat Series - Good day for Double Trouble   
Rolex Big Boat Series - Day 2 images by Erik Simonson   
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - TP52 fleet ready for tricky race tracks   
Rolex Big Boat Series - Plenty maintains lead   
2014 Asia Pacific Student Cup - Count down begins   
Extreme Sailing Series: Live coverage of Day 3 - view here   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - Going away   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - Practice makes perfect   
2014 J/70 World Championship - Contrasting conditions on Day 4   
Rolex Big Boat Series - 50 years of big boat racing: a retrospective   
2014 Rolex Big Boat Series - Day 2   
Snipe Western Hemisphere and Orient Champ: Rios takes the Championship   
Volvo Ocean Race: Leg Zero signals start of the significant racing   
Extreme Sailing Series: Physically demanding racing for BAR on Day 2   
Emirates Team NZ: Holding second overall after Day 2 in Istanbul   
Extreme Sailing Series: A force to be reckoned with in Istanbul +Video   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Day 1 images by Jesus Renedo and Pedro Martinez   
Marseille One Design: GC32's Armin Strom storms ahead on day 2 + Video   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT