sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Volvo Ocean Race: Saturday party, Sunday finish predicted for Leg 4
Volvo Ocean Race: Saturday party, Sunday finish predicted for Leg 4

'Craig Satterthwaite helming at sunset onboard Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12, from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand.'    Nick Dana/Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing    Click Here to view large photo

The latest projection of the finish time for Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean race is being put at the early hours of Sunday morning. Ideal for the Auckland party set at the Viaduct harbour.

The top three places would seem to be locked in, with Groupama (Franck Cammas) projected to be first to finish, by both weather feeds used by PredictWind. She is variously four and six hours ahead of the second placed boat Puma (Ken Read), with Telefonica about six hours behind the US entry - a prediction from both feeds.

Getting the same result from both feeds used in the routing function of PredictWind, generally indicates a high degree of certainty of outcome.

There are several factors which could come into play as the fleet makes its approach to New Zealand.

The split fleet positions five days out form the finish of the Volvo Ocean Race. the SE Trades can be clearly seen with the yellow and orange arrows -  PredictWind.com  

First is that the projection method in PredictWind uses a common set of boat performance data (polars) - so there could be some variation in the actual performance of different boats in different conditions.

Second factor is that the fleet is split into two groups, with Groupama, Abu Dhabi and Puma in the eastern group, closest to Fiji. The western group of Telefonica, Camper and Sanya are closer to the Australian coast.

The tactic of the eastern group would seem to be to soak down and position themselves ahead of the western group, however that may easier said than done.

The third factor is that the fleet is moving into the influence of the SE Trades, which can be seen in the graphics as the yellow and orange arrows.

The recommended route for Groupama takes the fleet into mid-Tasman before tacking for New Zealand -  PredictWind.com  

Effectively the SE Trades will be head winds for the fleet, meaning they will have an uncomfortable bash to New Zealand, and will be hard on the wind. Whether the boats can all sail at the same pace in this condition remains to be seen.

And then there is the issue of how the yachts handle the transition into the SE Trades, with the Volvo Ocean Race dashboard showing that the race leader, Groupama had hit a soft spot in the breeze and was sailing at an average speed of just under 7kts for the previous three hours, while Camper was sitting on 11kts in the same period. Were the Spanish/New Zealand entry be able to hold that pace, then there would be some erosion of the healthy margin enjoyed by Groupama.

Another factor will be the approach into Auckland, with the SE breeze expected to dog the fleet all the way into the City of Sails. PredictWind is recommending the boats to stand well off to the east of Auckland before tacking for the finish. On paper that looks a very bold move, with the more likely option being that the fleet will tack down the Northland coast. However as we have often seen so far in this race, the weather routing is not usually wrong, and is ignored at one's peril.

The recommended route, five days out from the finish is to stand well to the east of New Zealand. -  PredictWind.com  

On the basis of what we are seeing now, there will be no easy reach, or spinnaker run, down the Northland coast - and the race is expected to be reasonably wide open almost to the end. The next couple of days will be telling, as the trailing boats have to make inroads into the lead currently enjoyed by Groupama.

It is worth noting that earlier in this leg, off the coast of Japan, Puma was 280nm adrift of the leader and looked to be gone for all money, but pulled most of that back inside a couple of days, and is now back in second place.

The crews will be only too well aware that a competitor can be a real threat if they are in a different part of the ocean, as is the case with the split fleet at present.

Currently it is not anyone's race, and nothing will be certain until the boats are a lot closer to the finish.

Buying shares in an Auckland waterfront bar, would seem to be a sound move, as Auckland watches the last miles of the race on Saturday evening and then fires up for an early Sunday morning welcome party.

Postscript: On the latest update (0724NZT) The party in Auckland may be a long run affair with two of the feeds available under Predictwind producing an arrival time of between 0600-0700 on 11 March, and other saying 3.45pm on 11 March and the fourth opting for a time of 9.41am on 12 March, local time. The out-take from that level of variation is that there is still a lot of uncertainty over the weather pattern and date (of no surprise to New Zealanders). and meaning that the passing lanes are still wide open, at this stage.

Drying out the foul weather gear onboard Team Sanya during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12, from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand. -  Andres Soriano/Team Sanya/Volvo Ocean Race   Click Here to view large photo

Wade Morgan splices a new jib ’up/down’ line onboard Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12, from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand. -  Nick Dana/Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing   Click Here to view large photo

Brad Jackson pilots the Mar Mostro towards landfall at the Solomon Islands near sunset. Puma Ocean Racing during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12, from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand. -  Amory Ross-Puma Ocean Racing-Volvo Ocean Race©   Click Here to view large photo

Zane Gills onboard Team Telefonica as they pass through the Solomon Islands during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12, from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand. -  Diego Fructuoso -Team Telefónica-Volvo Ocean Race   Click Here to view large photo

Navigator Will Oxley keeps a direct eye on things passing through the Solomon Islands onboard Camper during leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12, from Sanya, China to Auckland, New Zealand. -  Hamish Hooper/Camper ETNZ/Volvo Ocean Race©   Click Here to view large photo




 


by Richard Gladwell

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=94568

3:13 PM Mon 5 Mar 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011-12 Volvo Ocean Race

Related News Stories:

06 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Will the French lose out?
06 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race – Groupama 4 trundle along
06 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma's Mar Mostro take high and slow road
05 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race: Auckland amps up as Race Village opening nears
05 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma skipper on the unsure outcome
05 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Puma Ocean Racing ready to fight
05 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Groupama 4 consolidates lead
04 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - A story of east versus west?
04 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race - Groupama 4 extend
03 Mar 2012  Volvo Ocean Race: Looking to make the most of squalls and thunderstorm
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World











Techno 293 Worlds - France and Italy claim titles by International Windsurfing Association,














420 World Championship - Singapore and Spain out front by 420 International Class Association,






























Lightning strikes cut short CFJ Nationals by Andy Kopetzky, Santa Monica Bay












Snipe Western Hemisphere and Orient Championship headed for San Diego
WPA Championships - Kids race divisions offered
New Clever Pig launched by US Sailing
America's Cup: Group agrees to co-operate in London Meeting
Copa del Rey Mapfre - Build-up reveals some remarkable enthusiasm
Marblehead NOOD Regatta - Images by Leighton O'Connor
America's Cup: Two AC72 skippers discuss Foiling Moths and the Cup
RS Feva World Championship - Brilliant sailing on day 2
America's Cup: Alameda makes overtures on Venue hosting for San Fran *Feature
Cape Panwa Hotel Phuket Race Week 2014 - Relishing a challenge
Edgartown Race Weekend - BBBR and Round-the-Island Race winners named
Etchells Invitational Cup - Aussies take early lead in Cowes
PWA Fuerteventura Grand Slam - Antoine Albeau strikes back on day 4
Aquece Rio – International Sailing Regatta - All set for test event
ISAF World Sailing Rankings for 28 July 2014
29er World Championship - All set in Kingston
ORC World Championship - Third Course area opens for huge fleet
Day one of the Allen RS Feva World Championships
Anna Tunnicliffe: Final two days of the 2014 Reebok CrossFit Games
Joachim Aschenbrenner takes gold at ISAF Youth Match Race Worlds 2014
Maxi Soh scores double wins in CMRC Summer Doubleheader   
29er World Championship opening ceremonies in Confederation Park   
PWA Fuerteventura Grand Slam - Action resumes on day 3   
Land Rover Sydney Gold Coast Yacht Race Start 2014 VIDEO   
Laser Radial Men’s World Championship 2014- Final day   
2014 Pacific Cup - Scarlet Runner wins   
Gladwell's Line: America's Cup - Joint Statement is a curious note *Feature   
ISAF Youth Match Racing World Champ - Top four battle it out for final   
BIC Techno 293 Worlds 2014 - Day 6   
PWA Fuerteventura Grand Slam - Wind teases competitors on day 2   
Women’s Match Race Golfe du Morbihan - Action-packed day of racing   
Herreshoff Marine Museum announces successful fundraising campaign   
Brewin Dolphin Commodores' Cup - The most comprehensive victory yet   
Anna Tunnicliffe fourth at mid-point of 2014 Reebok CrossFit Games   
2014 29er North American Open Championship - Australians win   
INSA Sabot II Invitational Regatta - Erik Hou claims victory   
CMRC Summer Invitational Series - Maxi Soh wins Doubleheader A event   
International Moth World Championships - Nathan Outteridge wins   
International Moth Worlds - Victory for Nathan Outteridge + Video   
PWA Fuerteventura Grand Slam - First blood to Toselli and Angulo   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT