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Sail-World.com : Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday
Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday

'50kt winds hit Auckland in 2008 - the weekend winds are predictd to be much stronger'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Tropical Cyclone Lusi is predicted to hit New Zealand, on late Friday night, and early Saturday morning. She is expected to bring strong winds and much needed rain to the top of the North Island.

Sail-World started tracking the storm at 2200hrs on Thursday night - the times of the shots of the storm can be read alongside each image. This update is from 2200hrs on Friday.

The first three Isobar images show the progress and expected track of the low pressure area from the Pacific at 2200hrs on Friday night, and again 24 hours later on Saturday night, and some from Sunday.

Predictwind produces two weather predictions based on two independent feeds and then applies various adjustments to take account of a variety of factors including land mass and topography. For a fuller explanation of how PredictWind enhances its feeds to provide a detailed local forecast click here

As we can see in these images, one projection expects the low to split a little as it hits the top of New Zealand, the other expects it to slide, unusually to the west of New Zealand. (Typically such Lows veer off to the east as the hit New Zealand and dissape in the Pacific, this is not expected to happen with Cyclone Lusi)

Isobar map 2200hrs Friday - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi. -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobars Saturday 1000hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 1000hrs - 150314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobars - Saturday 2200hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 150314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobars - Sunday 1000hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 1000hrs - 160314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


In this Forecast Table from Predictwind.com we can see the wind strength at two points - Mongonui in the far North and Bean Rock in the Waitemata Harbour.

The point of these two graphics is to show the winds predicted for Mongonui and then the times these will progress down to Auckland. They also show that the wind strength is predicted to top out at close 60kts in Auckland around 0700-0900hrs, on saturday morning, and that there will not be a lot of difference between Mongonui and Auckland - except that Mongonui gets the wind and rain ahead of Auckland.

Bean Rock Wind forecast table - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Mongonui Wind forecast - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The third graphic shows the real time weather observation points around the North Island, these points are used to track the actual wind strength and direction. When Lusia hits Cape Reinga, check the readings at the top of the North Island, compare these with the forecast tables and then check the variance between forecast and what is happening to the north, as that will track south to Auckland and beyond.

Realtime observations - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Real time observations - Bean Rock showing a more moderate breeze without much change in direction - ahead of the arrival of the low pressure zone - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The fourth set of graphics shows the advance of the rain, which will be heavy but is not expect to last that long, but will be replaced with strong winds

Rain is sfalling but light at 2200hrs, Friday night- PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Heavier rain falls in the early hours (0100hrs) of Saturday morning - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain eases 1000hrs Saturday morning - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Still raining at 2200hrs on saturday night - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Sail-World will update these forecasts and charts as the storm nears and passes over New Zealand reflecting any updates and changes in Predictwind's weather feeds, and the actual data being recorded.

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.


by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz


  

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12:34 PM Fri 14 Mar 2014GMT


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Related News Stories:

16 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south
15 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3: 60kts in Hauraki Gulf
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi as she hits New Zealand
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
03 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup Melbourne: Lighter breezes for Day 2
02 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne: Fresh breeze, flat water for Day 1
22 Oct 2013  Predictwind: Beat them in a Nor-Wester - 2013 PIC Coastal Classic
25 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh breeze for Final Day 15
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh to strong breeze for Day 14
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