sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday
Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday

'50kt winds hit Auckland in 2008 - the weekend winds are predictd to be much stronger'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Tropical Cyclone Lusi is predicted to hit New Zealand, on late Friday night, and early Saturday morning. She is expected to bring strong winds and much needed rain to the top of the North Island.

Sail-World started tracking the storm at 2200hrs on Thursday night - the times of the shots of the storm can be read alongside each image. This update is from 2200hrs on Friday.

The first three Isobar images show the progress and expected track of the low pressure area from the Pacific at 2200hrs on Friday night, and again 24 hours later on Saturday night, and some from Sunday.

Predictwind produces two weather predictions based on two independent feeds and then applies various adjustments to take account of a variety of factors including land mass and topography. For a fuller explanation of how PredictWind enhances its feeds to provide a detailed local forecast click here

As we can see in these images, one projection expects the low to split a little as it hits the top of New Zealand, the other expects it to slide, unusually to the west of New Zealand. (Typically such Lows veer off to the east as the hit New Zealand and dissape in the Pacific, this is not expected to happen with Cyclone Lusi)

Isobar map 2200hrs Friday - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi. -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobars Saturday 1000hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 1000hrs - 150314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobars - Saturday 2200hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 150314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobars - Sunday 1000hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 1000hrs - 160314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


In this Forecast Table from Predictwind.com we can see the wind strength at two points - Mongonui in the far North and Bean Rock in the Waitemata Harbour.

The point of these two graphics is to show the winds predicted for Mongonui and then the times these will progress down to Auckland. They also show that the wind strength is predicted to top out at close 60kts in Auckland around 0700-0900hrs, on saturday morning, and that there will not be a lot of difference between Mongonui and Auckland - except that Mongonui gets the wind and rain ahead of Auckland.

Bean Rock Wind forecast table - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Mongonui Wind forecast - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The third graphic shows the real time weather observation points around the North Island, these points are used to track the actual wind strength and direction. When Lusia hits Cape Reinga, check the readings at the top of the North Island, compare these with the forecast tables and then check the variance between forecast and what is happening to the north, as that will track south to Auckland and beyond.

Realtime observations - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Real time observations - Bean Rock showing a more moderate breeze without much change in direction - ahead of the arrival of the low pressure zone - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The fourth set of graphics shows the advance of the rain, which will be heavy but is not expect to last that long, but will be replaced with strong winds

Rain is sfalling but light at 2200hrs, Friday night- PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Heavier rain falls in the early hours (0100hrs) of Saturday morning - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain eases 1000hrs Saturday morning - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Still raining at 2200hrs on saturday night - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, 2200hrs - 140314 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Sail-World will update these forecasts and charts as the storm nears and passes over New Zealand reflecting any updates and changes in Predictwind's weather feeds, and the actual data being recorded.

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.


by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz


  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=120110

12:34 PM Fri 14 Mar 2014GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.


Related News Stories:

16 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south
15 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3: 60kts in Hauraki Gulf
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi as she hits New Zealand
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
03 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup Melbourne: Lighter breezes for Day 2
02 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne: Fresh breeze, flat water for Day 1
22 Oct 2013  Predictwind: Beat them in a Nor-Wester - 2013 PIC Coastal Classic
25 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh breeze for Final Day 15
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh to strong breeze for Day 14
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Lighter winds initially for Day 13
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World





















Big Boat Series - It's not the size, it's the length by Erik Simonson, Pressure-Drop.US,




















470 Men and Women Worlds - Champs take over leaderboard by 470 International Association Class,


























J/24 World Championship - Excitement builds for Newport racing
Volvo Ocean Race - Seb Marsset joins Team Alvimedica
Fall Seamanship training opportunities at New York Yacht Club
Rolex Big Boat Series: More images from San Francisco - Final Day
AWT Hatteras Wave Jam action commences on day 3
Rolex Big Boat Series: Images from San Francisco - Final Day
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Watch medal races live here
Hobie 16 Open North American Championships and Pan Am Games qualifier
ISAF Sailing World Championship - Videos from Santander
ISAF Sailing Worlds: Buckingham into Medal Race, 470's stay consistent
470 Men and Women Worlds - Vadlau and Ogar into pole position
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Defending champion on top
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Strong competition for RS:X fleets
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Big breeze on day 6 + Video
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Buckingham into Laser Medal Race
U.S. Multihull Championship - Hobie Alter Trophy to be decided
ISAF Sailing Worlds - The kind of form most sailors only dream about
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing ahead of target
ISAF Worlds Santander - 19 Rio 2016 Laser Radial spots awarded
Santander 2014 ISAF Worlds - 21 broadcasters to take live coverage
Rolex Swan Cup - Looking forward to the next 30 years   
America’s Cup: The Future is foiling – AC45s to be modified   
Volvo Ocean Race: Win a stopover trip by designing an ECsix T-Shirt   
Red Bull 49erFX: On the eve of the Worlds in Santander   
America's Cup: Ben Ainslie Racing launches partnership with Yamaha   
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Starts tomorrow   
Rio 2016 Daylight the issue for Olympic sailing regatta   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - USA 470's and Lasers battle at top   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Santander - Day 5 video highlights   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Santander images by Jesús Renedo   
PWA Cold Hawaii World Cup - No action on day 2   
470 Men and Women Worlds - Game on for Olympic Qualification   
ISAF Sailing World Championships: Finns off to slow start in Santander   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Seesaw Day 5 in Santander + Video   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - 470 sailors shine in Santander   
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Kiwi Ray Davies returns to TP52 fleet   
Starboard Hatteras Wave Jam - No windsurfing action on day 1   
A complete recap of the most successful Melges 20 World Championship   
Rolex Big Boat Series - Prizegiving images by Chuck Lantz   
ISAF Santander - Upwards path for Austrian women's 470 crew + video   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT