sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 12, 2013 - A dose of reality
Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 12, 2013 - A dose of reality


'Elliott 7 - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 12, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Central bank domination of the markets continued with Bernanke adding to the minutes with a commentary aimed at verbal stimulus to reinforce QE infinity. He could not have been more aggressive in his language with this ..'Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future' and 'we're not going to step on the brakes'.

This language is designed to impress the markets with the Fed's commitment. Verbal will work short term, but fundamentally the economy will not improve with corruption of the monetary system! Equities continued to rally as Wall Street fed off the boom stimulus but the drugs will stop and the wall is hard. The EUR rallied as the USD subsided with the promise of more printing.

The EUR jumped to 1.3100 and the GBP towards 1.5200. This is a massive leap in risk as the Dollar subsides due to the destructive policies of Bernanke. Locally the AUD reacted accordingly, rising towards 0.9300, but later settling back below 0.9200 as local reality sets in!

The KIWI also booked gains, rising to above .7900 before revisiting below .7800 and settling at .7830, but sustained considerable losses in the cross rates. Central Bank Jaw-boning was effective once but economic reality will destroy the bull-run!

Crew overboard! Elliott 7’s - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 11, 2013

The crises in Eqypt continues unabated which has hit Oil hard, now rising to over $106 which will have a negative impact on input costs and disposable income. Higher Oil prices act like a giant tax on the economy and hits all aspects from the Consumer to Manufacturing.

The only beneficiary is the energy sector with these companies able to improve margins, short term, and opens previously too expensive options. Equities drifted in the face of rising energy costs and with the Fed minutes release. The Fed minutes are expected to endorse the tapering process outlined by Bernanke as the economy slowly improves. The EUR continues to fall, now back to 1.2850, and the GBP 1.4925. Chinese demand is expected to fall with exports and imports dropping as the credit crunch impacts.

A dramatic fall in exports should push commodities lower but general economic confidence had boosted the AUD back towards .9200 before falling to 0.9120 and the KIWI to 0.7800. Vulnerabilities in demand and withdrawal of Central bank intervention spell danger for commodity currencies so be prepared.

The Fed has observed that several members endorse tapering, as Employment conditions continue to improve. The improving economic realities must overwhelm the reduction in QE for equities to perform. It is hard to see the global recovery gain much short term momentum.

Volvo Ocean Race winner, Mike Sanderson helmed Stratis in the Elliott 5.9 fleet (55) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 10, 2013
Equity markets continued the recent bull-run with sentiment on the improve as an acceptance of marginal tapering, which provides continued QE for the forseeable future. The shock will come when reality bites and Central Banks will realise the consequences of the record breaking monetary largesse! The EUR has drifted lower, despite the rising confidence, with the single currency falling below 1.2800.

The GBP fell to 1.4870, wiping out recent gains, after Manufacturing Production fell 2.9% and Industrial Production also down 2.3%. There is little good news out of Europe and Bond yields in the PIIGS nations are once again on the march. The IMF has again reviewed Global growth lower from 3.3 to 3.1%. The US growth has been downgraded from 1.9% to 1.7% and they have recommended continued QE. This is a terrible growth rate for the US but has failed to dampen the positive sentiment.

Equities are on the rise after Alcoa beat expectations opening the earnings season. Aluminium demand is improving and so are earnings expectations which has reinforced positive sentiments across the markets. It is hard to have faith in this rally considering the economic situation and the fiscal crises that faces most western countries which have been supported by record breaking monetary recklessness. Commodities found support with rising US confidence and the KIWI rallied to 0.7840 with rising credit card spending and Home Prices.

The AUD also found support from the markets despite weakening Business Conditions and Confidence. Business is struggling and these reports hit record lows reflecting the decline in investment in Mining. The AUD is again testing 0.9200 but this is externally driven and vulnerabilities remain!

Georgia Racing - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 9, 2013
Markets continued to feed off last weeks positive Jobs data from the US and equities continued to rally strongly. European markets fed of the US lead despite weaker German Industrial Production and falling EU Investor Confidence. Positive news from Greece and Portugal also added to confidence and the EUR stabilised at 1.2875 and the GBP 1.4960. US Markets continued to rally strongly with Alcoa kicking off the earnings season this week.

The stronger Jobs data and acceptance of controlled tapering from the Fed has added to confidence prevailing in the US economic recovery. This has allowed the safety play to settle the Dollar and Bond Yields have also calmed recent spikes. Commodities rebounded and so did the associated currencies with AUD rebounding to just over 0.9100 despite Job Ads falling and unemployment on the rise.

Domestic data is certainly secondary in cause/effect on the currency. Employment is set to deteriorate in line with recent economic domestic data. The KIWI also recovered from the lows to test 0.7800 with local House Sales and Prices flattening out. Central Banks will continue to dictate market direction although local data and US earnings will also have impact.


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=111859

3:29 AM Fri 12 Jul 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

11 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 11, 2013 - Egypt oil rises
11 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 10, 2013 - Bull run continues
09 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 9, 2013 - Aussies rebounding
06 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 6, 2013 - ANZAC Ups and Downs
05 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 5, 2013 - Rally extends to Europe
05 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 4, 2013 - Egypt pushes Oil up
03 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 3, 2013 - Equities travel well
03 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 2, 2013 - US markets continue up
29 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 28, 2013 - NZ Confidence Up
27 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 27, 2013 - The Lucky Country?
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World



























































America's Cup: Challenger calls Competitor Meeting ahead of deadline *Feature by Richard Gladwell Sail-World.com/nz,








Audi-Tron Sailing Series - Melges 20 fleet ready for action
Volvo Cork Week - Front runners emerge on day 3
Nacra 17 Europeans - Big winds halt racing in La Grande Motte
49er and 49erFX Europeans - Tough end to qualifying phase + Video
New Classification Code for consultation released by the IPC
Clipper Round The World Yacht Race fleet heads for London
Volvo Ocean Race - Abu Dhabi and Team Alvimedi head for England
Rio 2016 in the sights of ISAF Youth Worlds 420 sailors
Exciting new International Audi Melges 20 Ranking System now in play
FISU World University Match Racing Championships - GBR women win gold
2014 Seiko 49er and 49erFX European Championship - Day 2
Volvo Ocean Race teams Abu Dhabi and Alvimedica leave Newport, RI
Half Ton Classics Cup - Champagne conditions on Day 2 + Video
ABYC Fourth of July Regatta - Snipes join the action
Volvo Cork Week - Three bullets for ballistic catapult
Nacra 17 Europeans - Besson and Riou lead the overall standings
Formula 16 World Championship - Aussies claim title in Newport
Vestas Sailrocket 3 - The journey beckons
Clipper Round the World - London to provide emotional heroes welcome
ISAF Youth Worlds - Italians to lead RS:X fleet in Tavira
Vestas Sailrocket 3 - Over the Horizon   
Foiling Week - Italian Moth Championship - Final results   
NYYC Race Week - Yachting history on display   
Rescued sailors reach shore after dramatic ocean rescue   
Half Ton Classics Cup: Swuzzlebubble out front on Day 1 + Video   
New York Yacht Club Race Week - Yachting history on display   
Volvo Cork Week - Thrilling conditions welcome international fleet   
Nacra 17 Europeans: Success for Italy's Bissaro and Sicouri   
America's Cup: 2017 venue short-list reduced to two Cities   
Formula Windsurfing Youth and Master Worlds overall   
49er and 49erFX Europeans: Pitfalls aplenty on day 1 + Video   
ISAF Youth Worlds - Laser Radial sailors look to join list of legends   
Coville soon to chase solo circumnavigation record in giant trimaran   
Fierce competition at the Meanline Fins Slalom Challenge   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Brunel opt for experienced winner   
Bakewell-White supermaxi designed to take Transpac's Barn Door Trophy *Feature   
Crew rescued by navy patrol from J/111 racer after Mayday in storm   
Team Alvimedica practice in Newport, RI - Photos   
18 foot skiff European Championship (Open Europeans) - Final results   
Nacra 17 European Championships - No action on day 1   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT