sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 12, 2013 - A dose of reality
Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 12, 2013 - A dose of reality


'Elliott 7 - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 12, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Central bank domination of the markets continued with Bernanke adding to the minutes with a commentary aimed at verbal stimulus to reinforce QE infinity. He could not have been more aggressive in his language with this ..'Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future' and 'we're not going to step on the brakes'.

This language is designed to impress the markets with the Fed's commitment. Verbal will work short term, but fundamentally the economy will not improve with corruption of the monetary system! Equities continued to rally as Wall Street fed off the boom stimulus but the drugs will stop and the wall is hard. The EUR rallied as the USD subsided with the promise of more printing.

The EUR jumped to 1.3100 and the GBP towards 1.5200. This is a massive leap in risk as the Dollar subsides due to the destructive policies of Bernanke. Locally the AUD reacted accordingly, rising towards 0.9300, but later settling back below 0.9200 as local reality sets in!

The KIWI also booked gains, rising to above .7900 before revisiting below .7800 and settling at .7830, but sustained considerable losses in the cross rates. Central Bank Jaw-boning was effective once but economic reality will destroy the bull-run!

Crew overboard! Elliott 7’s - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 11, 2013

The crises in Eqypt continues unabated which has hit Oil hard, now rising to over $106 which will have a negative impact on input costs and disposable income. Higher Oil prices act like a giant tax on the economy and hits all aspects from the Consumer to Manufacturing.

The only beneficiary is the energy sector with these companies able to improve margins, short term, and opens previously too expensive options. Equities drifted in the face of rising energy costs and with the Fed minutes release. The Fed minutes are expected to endorse the tapering process outlined by Bernanke as the economy slowly improves. The EUR continues to fall, now back to 1.2850, and the GBP 1.4925. Chinese demand is expected to fall with exports and imports dropping as the credit crunch impacts.

A dramatic fall in exports should push commodities lower but general economic confidence had boosted the AUD back towards .9200 before falling to 0.9120 and the KIWI to 0.7800. Vulnerabilities in demand and withdrawal of Central bank intervention spell danger for commodity currencies so be prepared.

The Fed has observed that several members endorse tapering, as Employment conditions continue to improve. The improving economic realities must overwhelm the reduction in QE for equities to perform. It is hard to see the global recovery gain much short term momentum.

Volvo Ocean Race winner, Mike Sanderson helmed Stratis in the Elliott 5.9 fleet (55) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 10, 2013
Equity markets continued the recent bull-run with sentiment on the improve as an acceptance of marginal tapering, which provides continued QE for the forseeable future. The shock will come when reality bites and Central Banks will realise the consequences of the record breaking monetary largesse! The EUR has drifted lower, despite the rising confidence, with the single currency falling below 1.2800.

The GBP fell to 1.4870, wiping out recent gains, after Manufacturing Production fell 2.9% and Industrial Production also down 2.3%. There is little good news out of Europe and Bond yields in the PIIGS nations are once again on the march. The IMF has again reviewed Global growth lower from 3.3 to 3.1%. The US growth has been downgraded from 1.9% to 1.7% and they have recommended continued QE. This is a terrible growth rate for the US but has failed to dampen the positive sentiment.

Equities are on the rise after Alcoa beat expectations opening the earnings season. Aluminium demand is improving and so are earnings expectations which has reinforced positive sentiments across the markets. It is hard to have faith in this rally considering the economic situation and the fiscal crises that faces most western countries which have been supported by record breaking monetary recklessness. Commodities found support with rising US confidence and the KIWI rallied to 0.7840 with rising credit card spending and Home Prices.

The AUD also found support from the markets despite weakening Business Conditions and Confidence. Business is struggling and these reports hit record lows reflecting the decline in investment in Mining. The AUD is again testing 0.9200 but this is externally driven and vulnerabilities remain!

Georgia Racing - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 9, 2013
Markets continued to feed off last weeks positive Jobs data from the US and equities continued to rally strongly. European markets fed of the US lead despite weaker German Industrial Production and falling EU Investor Confidence. Positive news from Greece and Portugal also added to confidence and the EUR stabilised at 1.2875 and the GBP 1.4960. US Markets continued to rally strongly with Alcoa kicking off the earnings season this week.

The stronger Jobs data and acceptance of controlled tapering from the Fed has added to confidence prevailing in the US economic recovery. This has allowed the safety play to settle the Dollar and Bond Yields have also calmed recent spikes. Commodities rebounded and so did the associated currencies with AUD rebounding to just over 0.9100 despite Job Ads falling and unemployment on the rise.

Domestic data is certainly secondary in cause/effect on the currency. Employment is set to deteriorate in line with recent economic domestic data. The KIWI also recovered from the lows to test 0.7800 with local House Sales and Prices flattening out. Central Banks will continue to dictate market direction although local data and US earnings will also have impact.


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=111859

3:29 AM Fri 12 Jul 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

11 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 11, 2013 - Egypt oil rises
11 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 10, 2013 - Bull run continues
09 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 9, 2013 - Aussies rebounding
06 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 6, 2013 - ANZAC Ups and Downs
05 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 5, 2013 - Rally extends to Europe
05 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 4, 2013 - Egypt pushes Oil up
03 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 3, 2013 - Equities travel well
03 Jul 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 2, 2013 - US markets continue up
29 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 28, 2013 - NZ Confidence Up
27 Jun 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: June 27, 2013 - The Lucky Country?
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

New Ragamuffin 100 emerges from the hull build in Nowra *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Ragamuffin 100, which started out as a modified Elliott design, Maximus, is another supermaxi undergoing a major rebuild or retrofit. Across the Tasman, the new Ragamuffin 100 will be virtually a new boat with a a new hull design by Andy Dovell / Syd Fischer / David Witt. The hull mould and shell was built by Innovation Composites at the Nowra facility. ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at Les Voiles de Saint Tropez on the French Riveria , and provided this gallery of images of the classics and other yachts racing on Day 2 ... [more]  

Southern Spars ships the world's tallest masts by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
Leading world sparmaker, Southern Spars, has shipped two spars for a new 85 metre ketch. The superyacht will carry two 93metre masts which will be the world’s tallest rigs on one gigantic yacht. ... [more]  

Professional sailing photographers from all over the world are invited to join the Mirabaud Yacht Racing Image award 2014. Started in 2009, the Mirabaud Yacht Racing Image is the world’s premier photography competition dedicated to the sport of sailing. The prestigious trophy will be awarded during the World Yacht Racing Forum in Barcelona, on December 11, 2014. ... [more]  

David Kellett (AUS) is to be awarded the ISAF Beppe Croce Trophy which honours an individual for their outstanding voluntary contribution to the sport of sailing. The ISAF Beppe Croce Trophy, first presented in 1988 in memory of Beppe Croce, the ISAF President from 1969 to 1986, will be presented to Kellett at the 2014 ISAF Annual Conference in Palma de Mallorca, Spain. ... [more]  

After being graced with plenty of late summer sunshine during the opening days of the event, more autumnal weather moved in on the fifth day of the DAVIDOFF Cool Water Sylt PWA Super Grand Slam with grey skies and infrequent showers. Unfortunately though the light winds continued as the sailors endured another lay day. ... [more]  

In a move that is expected to benefit recreational boaters, on Oct. 22 the US Coast Guard will drop the current life jacket type code scheme -- Type I, II, III, IV and V -- that has been used for years to label and differentiate the types of life jackets and their specific use. ... [more]  

Kate Nota and her team onboard the J/111 Odyssey won the Ripple Effect Short Video Contest, which was part of the Ida Lewis Distance Race this summer (August 15). ... [more]  

The largest Laser World Championship in history will be taking place on the south coast of France when 515 sailors, representing 36 different countries, begin racing on October 5 to open the 2014 Audi Laser Masters’ World Championships. The Laser remains one of the best and most popular boats worldwide in which to enjoy the sport of sailing. ... [more]  

Carlo Borlenghi was back on the water for day two at Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

It has been an interesting journey so far for the Chinese team in the Volvo Ocean Race, Dongfeng Race Team. Approximately 10 months ago this team set out on a mission to select and train Chinese recruits in the hope that they would be ‘race ready’ for the start of leg 1 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race fans can now carry the world’s toughest ocean race in their pocket, thanks to the launch of a new official mobile app. Developed for both iOS and Android systems, the app is available for download from the App Store and Google Play now – and boasts a host of exciting features which will allow users to be closer to the on-water adventure than ever before. ... [more]  

Race teams planning next season’s calendar could do worse than sign up for the Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series 2015 which runs from 16-24 January. This event, which kick starts the Caribbean race season, was re-launched in 2014 with a new race format and plenty of record-breaking opportunities. It proved such a success that an even bigger entry is expected in 2015. ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at Les Voiles de Saint Tropez on the French Riveria , and provided this gallery of images of the classics and other yachts racing ... [more]  

Sunset+Vine|APP, the Oxford-based unit of the multi-award winning UK independent TV sports production and media company Sunset+Vine, has helped ISAF smash all previous broadcaster records for the recent Santander 2014 ISAF Sailing World Championships. ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup - Melbourne - Don’t forget to enter the ISAF Sailing World Cup – Melbourne. There are only two days left to take advantage of the discounted entry price offer. ... [more]  

2014 12 Metre North American Championships - Two days of a northerly (first strong, then light) and one day of a building southwesterly put six 12 Metre yachts to the test at their North American Championships, which were held off Newport, R.I. over September 26-28. Gunther Buerman’s (Newport, R.I.) KZ-3 and Dennis Williams’ (Hobe Sound, Fla.) Victory ’83 defended their titles ... [more]  

The waiting game continued on day four of the DAVIDOFF Cool Water Sylt PWA Super Grand Slam as the light winds continued. Over the course of the day a few sailors took the opportunity to make the most of the small waves on offer, either surfing or SUPping. After spending the day on hold the sailors were released at 4:30pm. ... [more]  

After Gmunden, Austria, in 2011 and Cala de' Medici, Italy, in 2012 and after a pained second place, same points with the Portogues 'Credite Egs' in Portosin, Spain, last year, the Italian crew coming from Puglia 'Euz II Monella Vagabonda', with Sandro Montefusco at the helm and his brother Paolo as a tactician, confirms for the third time the Platu 25 World Championship title. ... [more]  

Carlo Borlenghi was on deck for the first day of competition at Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on site for day one of racing at the 2014 Les Voiles de Saint Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

The final day of the 2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship ended up being a half day of sailing due to a complete shutdown of the wind. However, the fleet completed enough races to count Gold Round Robin 3 and crown Ladies and Gentlemen as the back-to-back Team Racing Champions. ... [more]  

Michigan, the Great Lakes State, was a fitting location as The National Sailing Hall of Fame (NSHOF) gathered for the fourth time in the organization’s history to fulfill its mission to recognize Americans who have made outstanding contributions to the sport of sailing. ... [more]  

The International Sailing Federation (ISAF) has published guidelines for candidates bidding to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship. Bids to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing Worlds must be received by Friday 24 October 2014. ... [more]  

The onboard medic-sailors competing in the upcoming Volvo Ocean Race have completed their last medical training. More than a basic first aid refresher course, the mandatory medical training each Volvo Ocean Race team had to carry out in the last few months and days are key to survival while at sea. ... [more]  

Erik Simonson was on the water at 2014 Melges 20 Pacific Coast Championship to capture these images. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Light air ruled the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada—and so did Rod Wilmer and Terry McLaughlin on Mandate. ... [more]  

The Extreme Sailing Series event in Istanbul seems to have only just finished, but already the containers are in the Ville de Nice set to gear up for this weeks penultimate regatta. Peter Burling and Blair Tuke are back onboard this week, fresh from their 49er World Championship win and looking to make it two wins from two events for Emirates Team New Zealand on the ?Extreme Sailing Series ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - In Sunday’s final matches in the Buddy Melges Challenge, Stephanie Roble and Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen showed the crowds on the bluffs of Lake Michigan how top class match racing should be sailed. It took five absolutely thrilling matches for the Danish crew to secure their first WIM Series event victory since last summer’s Danish Open. ... [more]  

America's Cup: Oracle Team USA's AC72 takes to the streets by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Oracle Team USA's winning AC72 takes to the streets of San Francisco, one year on from the Team's successful Defence of the America's Cup. This week the AC72 catamaran Oracle Team USA raced to victory is going to be a special guest at Oracle OpenWorld 2014 in San Francisco. ... [more]  

Matches between the world’s top two match racing skippers are always aggressive affairs on the Alpari World Match Racing Tour (AWMRT). In the pre-start of the first match, Canfield stuck two penalties on Williams, leaving the British boat playing catch-up. ... [more]  

Pantaenius, the world’s leading specialist yacht insurance company, has been at the forefront of yacht insurance for more than 40 years, earning a reputation for transparency and commitment to customer service that provides round-the-clock international support and reliable, speedy claims settlement. ... [more]  

What a great day for kiting at Kite Foil Gold Cup Australia 2014! 10-15 knot North Easterly and slight seas. Kites zooming around like supersonic mosquitoes but mosquitoes buzz whereas foiling kites are completely silent! ... [more]  

Bart's Bash: Update and Video - Information overload!
2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - Day 2
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - USA leads Denmark in Sheboygan final
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Benz Faget wins third mallory
J/105 North American Champ - Wilmer/McLaughlin team maintain advantage
Images from Cannes: Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai
Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai: Cannes at its best
Dutch Match Cup - Gilmour keeps clean sheet in Lelystad
Dutch Match Cup - GAC Pindar through to fifth consecutive semi-final
Hobie 16 Open North Americans and 2015 Pan Am Games qualifier overall
Volvo Ocean Race - Frostad on Boat Design and final changes (Part II) *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race 10 days to go – Frostad on cultural change (Part I) *Feature
2014-15 Volvo Ocean Race on NBC Sports Network in the U.S.
2014 J/24 World Championship - Will Welles’ Cougar clinches
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Meldgaard and Le Berre ready for semis
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 3
2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - Day 1 + Video
America's Cup: Then and now - Coutts on why Oracle won, and the Venue
Byte CII World Sailing Championship comes to Royal Varuna, Thailand
Dutch Match Cup: Canfield wins Qualifying, six set for Quarters battle
12 Metre North Americans - A blast from the America’s Cup past   
2015 ISAF Sailing World Cup qualification system published   
Volvo Ocean Race: Mapfre named as Spanish team sponsor + Video   
Extreme Sailing Series returns to Nice for the penultimate Act of 2014   
ISAF invites bids for 2016 Women's Match Racing World Championship   
2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne - Teaming up   
Mascalzone Latino Jr. named 2014 Melges 20 European Ranking Champion   
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Le Berre keeps winning in Sheboygan   
Hobie 16 Open North American Champ and Pan Am Games Qualifier - Day 4   
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 2   
J/105 North Americans - Wilmer and McLaughlin master light conditions   
J/24 World Championship - Will Welles hangs on going into last day   
Open 2.4mR World Championship on the horizon   
Bart's Bash - Top photographers gain special entry   
Platu 25 Worlds - EUZ II Monella Vagabonda is still leading in France   
St. Barth Cata Cup - Olympic duel on the island   
Dutch Match Cup - High winds and big wipeouts in Lelystad   
Route du Rhum - Yann Guichard to sail Spindrift 2 solo   
Mirabaud Yacht Racing Image - Best sailing photo of the year sought   
Volvo Ocean Race - Yann Riou, getting you up close and personal   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT