sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 22, 2013 - KIWI data all good
Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 22, 2013 - KIWI data all good


'Paul Snow-Hansen and Daniel Willcox training in the 470, ahead of leaving on their 2013 European campaign - Takapuna.'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 21, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets took a step back overnight awaiting a solution to the new European crises. Cyprus has been given until next week to agree to a bailout package but immediate solutions seem unlikely as the people will not accept a haircut and Germany refuses to bailout Russian depositors.

Perhaps a negotiated agreement will be forthcoming but the Banks remain closed until then. A run on Banks is visually frightening and could trigger panic across southern Europe. The EUR dipped below 1.2900 although the GBP booked gains up to 1.5170 after strong Retail Sales (3.3%) and eternal thanks for not joining the dysfunctional single currency.

In the US, equity markets took a break from the unprecedented rally to monitor the fluid situation in Europe. The Fed continues to bankroll the stock market bubble hoping to stimulate the main street economy. Existing Home Sales rose 0.8%, under expectations. Home Prices rallied 0.6% but the Housing Sector was supposed to be the leader in the economic recovery!?

Insipid gains are better than falls but remain anemic compared with pre-GFC levels. The AUD met with turbulence after yet another leadership spill but the status-quo remained. The turmoil continues so watch this space! The AUD shook off the Political storm and rose to 1.0440 with the KIWI shining at 0.8325. NZ GDP numbers surprised many, leaping 1.5% for the quarter and 3.0% annually.

The 'out-of-the-box' number renewed confidence in the economy but may be tempered by the drought flowing through.

Continue to watch Europe but, uninhibited, it is hard to see US equities falling bar a correction. The Aussie political crises will roll on but the economic fundamentals remain solid despite the chaos which is Labor!

Paul Snow-Hansen and Daniel Willcox training in the 470, ahead of leaving on their 2013 European campaign - Takapuna. -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 21, 2013

The Fed extended the QE Infinity Policy with little changed, as employment improves and the economic recovery remains moderate. Inflation remains under control although GDP growth has been reviewed lower. Threats include Global Eco-Political issues (such as Cyprus) and the Fiscal situation domestically. The upshot is that the Fed will continue to print more money and add $85 Billion every month to pump, by default, ever increasing amounts into the Equity markets.

This bubble continues as the once mighty Dollar is slowly being destroyed. Inflation remains controlled, as growth exerts little upward pressure but real import costs rise with the flagging dollar. Downward pressures from labour and capital returns counter the rise in commodity inflation which keeps 'measured' inflation steady. The unprecedented extension of QE will have far reaching longterm effects on growth and inflation. The warning over fiscal rectitude is hard to believe as the QE pumps the same amount of the sequester every month!

Economic progress is slow and it is hard to see the end game as any rise in interest rates will threaten the US and its ability to service the massive debt racked up. The EUR recovered with the news, to 1.2950, as European leaders struggle to alleviate the latest suicide attempt. Cypriot Banks will remain closed until next week while they sort out the mess in an effort to avoid the inevitable run on banks. The problem is avoiding the run spreading to other Southern Med nations. The limitless cheap money must find a home and equities are easy and liquid, providing one of the only sources of reasonable return. Risk confidence remains the only threat to the avalanche of cash.

The NZD pushed north towards 0.8250, but since come off to .8200 as the Dollar remains embattled despite deteriorating Current Account numbers released yesterday. GDP growth will be today's challenge and expectations should remain low. The AUD also felt the effects of the Fed, improving to 1.0360 with Political turmoil internally marginalising any domestic data releases!


Collinson FX market Commentary: March 20, 2013
The panic emanating from Cyprus is spreading across Europe and the global markets. Cypriot Parliamentarians saw the writing on the wall and hurriedly voted against the hugely unpopular 'Bail-In'. Uncertainty now reigns with no plan B.

They will need to head back to the ECB and IMF and negotiate new terms. The extreme outcomes are a collapse in the local banks and an exit from the EU. This seems unlikely as they have steadfastly avoided this, at great cost, across Southern Europe. The Germans will be compelled to pay, as the consequences of social upheaval or repercussions from upset Russians are far more daunting. The EUR continued to crash dropping below 1.2900 while safety plays were attracted to the USD.

In the US, Equity markets were looking for an excuse for a correction but had hoped it would not be triggered by a full blown EU crises! House Building was up slightly and Building Permits had sustained growth contradicting yesterdays news. Economic news was overshadowed by the pandamonium in Europe and looks likely to continue until a resolution is found. Leadership has been constantly tested in Europe and failed miserably!

The FOMC is meeting and is not expected to change their current dovish monetary policy. The AUD slipped back, with rising risk, to 1.0350 still undergoing their own political insecurity.

The KIWI has been soft of late but holds 0.8220 in the lead up to today's all important trade data. This may not be as bad as expected as it is historical and the worst may be yet to come. All eyes remain on Cyprus and the EU!

Paul Snow-Hansen and Daniel Willcox training in the 470, ahead of leaving on their 2013 European campaign - Takapuna. The bracket on the back holds a mini-cam to video record the training session.  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 19, 2013
Markets were spooked as they opened for the week with the Cyprus crises triggering fears across the Euro-Zone. The problem revolves around the EU bailout of Cypriot Banks (which is not unusual!) but the fact that the Government would confiscate depositors funds. ECB had guaranteed depositors and forced bondholders to take the haircut.

This sets a new precedence and the worry is that it could occur in Italy, Spain etc, thus shaking what little confidence citizens have in their banks. This could trigger a run on banks and ultimately lead to another crises which could threaten the Euro-Zone itself. The EUR plunged below 1.2900 as Asian equity markets collapsed by more than 2%. EU Finance Ministers held an emergency meeting and a compromise will be forthcoming. Cooler heads prevailed by the time US markets opened and much of the earlier losses were regained. The EU remains critical and this situation demonstrates the tentative vulnerability of of the single market and the currency.

The impact this has on the global economy cannot be underestimated. In the US, NAHB Home Builder Index fell below expectations adding doubts to the accepted recovery in this sector. The AUD remains mired in political turmoil with many expecting a change in PM this week. The Government lurches from one self imposed disaster to the next and appear to be on the verge of collapse. The AUD may be susceptible to sharp moves as political developments evolve.

The AUD fell to 1.0345 with the Cypriot crises moving flows to the safety of the USD,but has recovered a little to be around 1.0370.The KIWI will be impacted by the turmoil across the Tasman and by EU events, but trades around 0.8230 in the meanwhile!

Snow130313 (2) - Paul Snow-Hansen and Daniel Willcox training in the 470 - Takapuna March 14, 2013  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 18, 2013
Consumer sentiment brought the market back to earth as the unprecedented rally came to a close. It appears traders on Wall Street are far more confident than the US Consumer. Sentiment fell to 71.8 from 77.6 with the impact of rising payroll taxes and increasing discovery on Obamacare costs.

The almighty consumer is the major driver of the US domestic markets and thus the economy.The Dollar suffered accordingly pushing the EUR to 1.3050 and the GBP approaching 1.5100. The massive Bull run may continue to unfold in the coming week sailing into uncharted waters with only technical chart levels to target. This week will focus on the Fed and the plethora of economic releases lead by the Housing Statistics. The RBA will meet, but expectations for any action are low with the currency flying high testing above 1.0350.

The KIWI also regained 0.8245 after a week of hits emanating from the RBNZ releases earlier in the week. We have seen some earlier downward movement in the NZD & AUD rates this am with the Euro being sold off as the news of the Cyprus banks' bailouts surface.

A look at NZ GDP will be a good guide to the state of the economy but expectations should not be high.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=107720

11:39 AM Fri 22 Mar 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

23 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 23, 2013 - Cyprus Solution?
21 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 21, 2013 - KIWI trade data due
20 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 20, 2013 - Cypriots panic
19 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 19, 2013 - Market Ghostbuster?
18 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 18, 2013 - Massive Bull run
15 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 15, 2013 - Oz dollar gets turbod
14 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 14, 2013 - New Pope - no change
12 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 12, 2013 - US brushes off negs
11 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 11, 2013 - Good news from US
07 Mar 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: March 7, 2013 - KIWI drifts back
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

Kate Nota and her team onboard the J/111 Odyssey won the Ripple Effect Short Video Contest, which was part of the Ida Lewis Distance Race this summer (August 15). ... [more]  

The largest Laser World Championship in history will be taking place on the south coast of France when 515 sailors, representing 36 different countries, begin racing on October 5 to open the 2014 Audi Laser Masters’ World Championships. The Laser remains one of the best and most popular boats worldwide in which to enjoy the sport of sailing. ... [more]  

After being graced with plenty of late summer sunshine during the opening days of the event, more autumnal weather moved in on the fifth day of the DAVIDOFF Cool Water Sylt PWA Super Grand Slam with grey skies and infrequent showers. Unfortunately though the light winds continued as the sailors endured another lay day. ... [more]  

In a move that is expected to benefit recreational boaters, on Oct. 22 the US Coast Guard will drop the current life jacket type code scheme -- Type I, II, III, IV and V -- that has been used for years to label and differentiate the types of life jackets and their specific use. ... [more]  

Carlo Borlenghi was back on the water for day two at Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

It has been an interesting journey so far for the Chinese team in the Volvo Ocean Race, Dongfeng Race Team. Approximately 10 months ago this team set out on a mission to select and train Chinese recruits in the hope that they would be ‘race ready’ for the start of leg 1 of the Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race fans can now carry the world’s toughest ocean race in their pocket, thanks to the launch of a new official mobile app. Developed for both iOS and Android systems, the app is available for download from the App Store and Google Play now – and boasts a host of exciting features which will allow users to be closer to the on-water adventure than ever before. ... [more]  

Race teams planning next season’s calendar could do worse than sign up for the Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series 2015 which runs from 16-24 January. This event, which kick starts the Caribbean race season, was re-launched in 2014 with a new race format and plenty of record-breaking opportunities. It proved such a success that an even bigger entry is expected in 2015. ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at Les Voiles de Saint Tropez on the French Riveria , and provided this gallery of images of the classics and other yachts racing ... [more]  

Sunset+Vine|APP, the Oxford-based unit of the multi-award winning UK independent TV sports production and media company Sunset+Vine, has helped ISAF smash all previous broadcaster records for the recent Santander 2014 ISAF Sailing World Championships. ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup - Melbourne - Don’t forget to enter the ISAF Sailing World Cup – Melbourne. There are only two days left to take advantage of the discounted entry price offer. ... [more]  

2014 12 Metre North American Championships - Two days of a northerly (first strong, then light) and one day of a building southwesterly put six 12 Metre yachts to the test at their North American Championships, which were held off Newport, R.I. over September 26-28. Gunther Buerman’s (Newport, R.I.) KZ-3 and Dennis Williams’ (Hobe Sound, Fla.) Victory ’83 defended their titles ... [more]  

The waiting game continued on day four of the DAVIDOFF Cool Water Sylt PWA Super Grand Slam as the light winds continued. Over the course of the day a few sailors took the opportunity to make the most of the small waves on offer, either surfing or SUPping. After spending the day on hold the sailors were released at 4:30pm. ... [more]  

After Gmunden, Austria, in 2011 and Cala de' Medici, Italy, in 2012 and after a pained second place, same points with the Portogues 'Credite Egs' in Portosin, Spain, last year, the Italian crew coming from Puglia 'Euz II Monella Vagabonda', with Sandro Montefusco at the helm and his brother Paolo as a tactician, confirms for the third time the Platu 25 World Championship title. ... [more]  

Carlo Borlenghi was on deck for the first day of competition at Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on site for day one of racing at the 2014 Les Voiles de Saint Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

The final day of the 2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship ended up being a half day of sailing due to a complete shutdown of the wind. However, the fleet completed enough races to count Gold Round Robin 3 and crown Ladies and Gentlemen as the back-to-back Team Racing Champions. ... [more]  

Michigan, the Great Lakes State, was a fitting location as The National Sailing Hall of Fame (NSHOF) gathered for the fourth time in the organization’s history to fulfill its mission to recognize Americans who have made outstanding contributions to the sport of sailing. ... [more]  

The International Sailing Federation (ISAF) has published guidelines for candidates bidding to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship. Bids to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing Worlds must be received by Friday 24 October 2014. ... [more]  

The onboard medic-sailors competing in the upcoming Volvo Ocean Race have completed their last medical training. More than a basic first aid refresher course, the mandatory medical training each Volvo Ocean Race team had to carry out in the last few months and days are key to survival while at sea. ... [more]  

Erik Simonson was on the water at 2014 Melges 20 Pacific Coast Championship to capture these images. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Light air ruled the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada—and so did Rod Wilmer and Terry McLaughlin on Mandate. ... [more]  

The Extreme Sailing Series event in Istanbul seems to have only just finished, but already the containers are in the Ville de Nice set to gear up for this weeks penultimate regatta. Peter Burling and Blair Tuke are back onboard this week, fresh from their 49er World Championship win and looking to make it two wins from two events for Emirates Team New Zealand on the ?Extreme Sailing Series ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - In Sunday’s final matches in the Buddy Melges Challenge, Stephanie Roble and Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen showed the crowds on the bluffs of Lake Michigan how top class match racing should be sailed. It took five absolutely thrilling matches for the Danish crew to secure their first WIM Series event victory since last summer’s Danish Open. ... [more]  

America's Cup: Oracle Team USA's AC72 takes to the streets by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Oracle Team USA's winning AC72 takes to the streets of San Francisco, one year on from the Team's successful Defence of the America's Cup. This week the AC72 catamaran Oracle Team USA raced to victory is going to be a special guest at Oracle OpenWorld 2014 in San Francisco. ... [more]  

Matches between the world’s top two match racing skippers are always aggressive affairs on the Alpari World Match Racing Tour (AWMRT). In the pre-start of the first match, Canfield stuck two penalties on Williams, leaving the British boat playing catch-up. ... [more]  

Pantaenius, the world’s leading specialist yacht insurance company, has been at the forefront of yacht insurance for more than 40 years, earning a reputation for transparency and commitment to customer service that provides round-the-clock international support and reliable, speedy claims settlement. ... [more]  

What a great day for kiting at Kite Foil Gold Cup Australia 2014! 10-15 knot North Easterly and slight seas. Kites zooming around like supersonic mosquitoes but mosquitoes buzz whereas foiling kites are completely silent! ... [more]  

At the time that we are writing this, it is almost exactly a week since the first race took place at Wakatere Boating Club in New Zealand, followed by hundreds of races across the globe that we have been told attracted record numbers of sailors to your clubs ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - It was a picturesque day on Marblehead Harbor with plenty of sunshine for the second day of the U.S. Team Racing Championship. Once again, a lack of consistent breeze made for a challenging day for the Race Committee, umpires and competitors. Nevertheless, PRO Susie Schneider and her team were able to complete Round Robin One ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Saturday’s racing in the Buddy Melges Challenge on Lake Michigan, USA, saw more breeze than ever before during the week. Stephanie Roble used her local knowledge to show a clean sheet for the day, going in to Sunday’s conclusion with a one – zero lead over Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen in the final, sailed as a best of five match series. ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - A balanced field and limited racing usually leads to close races and a crowded leaderboard. This was the situation on Eagle Mountain Lake for the last day at the U.S. Adult Championship, hosted by Fort Worth Boat Club. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Five races are now in the books, and just three points separate the top three teams at the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. ... [more]  

Images from Cannes: Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai
Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai: Cannes at its best
Dutch Match Cup - Gilmour keeps clean sheet in Lelystad
Dutch Match Cup - GAC Pindar through to fifth consecutive semi-final
Hobie 16 Open North Americans and 2015 Pan Am Games qualifier overall
Volvo Ocean Race - Frostad on Boat Design and final changes (Part II) *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race 10 days to go – Frostad on cultural change (Part I) *Feature
2014-15 Volvo Ocean Race on NBC Sports Network in the U.S.
2014 J/24 World Championship - Will Welles’ Cougar clinches
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Meldgaard and Le Berre ready for semis
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 3
2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - Day 1 + Video
America's Cup: Then and now - Coutts on why Oracle won, and the Venue
Byte CII World Sailing Championship comes to Royal Varuna, Thailand
Dutch Match Cup: Canfield wins Qualifying, six set for Quarters battle
12 Metre North Americans - A blast from the America’s Cup past
2015 ISAF Sailing World Cup qualification system published
Volvo Ocean Race: Mapfre named as Spanish team sponsor + Video
Extreme Sailing Series returns to Nice for the penultimate Act of 2014
ISAF invites bids for 2016 Women's Match Racing World Championship
2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne - Teaming up   
Mascalzone Latino Jr. named 2014 Melges 20 European Ranking Champion   
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Le Berre keeps winning in Sheboygan   
Hobie 16 Open North American Champ and Pan Am Games Qualifier - Day 4   
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 2   
J/105 North Americans - Wilmer and McLaughlin master light conditions   
J/24 World Championship - Will Welles hangs on going into last day   
Open 2.4mR World Championship on the horizon   
Bart's Bash - Top photographers gain special entry   
Platu 25 Worlds - EUZ II Monella Vagabonda is still leading in France   
St. Barth Cata Cup - Olympic duel on the island   
Dutch Match Cup - High winds and big wipeouts in Lelystad   
Route du Rhum - Yann Guichard to sail Spindrift 2 solo   
Mirabaud Yacht Racing Image - Best sailing photo of the year sought   
Volvo Ocean Race - Yann Riou, getting you up close and personal   
Marseille One Design concludes GC32 racing season + Video   
World Yacht Racing Forum - Seventh edition to take place in Barcelona   
Record number of entries for the Sailing Champions League   
Platu 25 World Championship - Euz II Monella Vagabonda still leading   
Rolex Middle Sea Race Record - A possibility for Esimit Europa 2   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL VIR US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT