sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: February 1, 2013 - US sobers up
Collinson FX Market Commentary: February 1, 2013 - US sobers up

'Prize (port) and Ngatira - 2013 Mahurangi Regatta'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 1, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

US equity markets continued to sober up after the bender of January 2013. Economic realities started to sink in as the important US GDP number confirmed a contraction in the worlds largest economy for the first time since the recession technically finished.

The dust was starting to settle despite the enormous amount of liquidity flooding the markets. The Chicago PMI rose to 55.6 which was a boost for Manufacturing but Jobless claims spike and the Challenger Jobs report confirmed the planned layoffs of another 40,930. Fundamentals are all moving in the same direction being strangled by higher taxes and more regulation. The EUR reflected the weakness in the Dollar trading 1.3575 despite the calamitous state of the EU.

German Retail Sales fell 4.7% and prospects look decidedly bearish. The KIWI continued to hold 0.8400 after the RBNZ failed to cut rates, in line with other Central Banks, frightened by the prospect of a housing bubble! The result hits exporters and investors hard with the overvalued currency and higher costs of borrowing.

The AUD traded 1.0440 with all sorts of political turmoil after the announcement of the election closely followed by the arrest of Labor Govt supporter, MP Craig Thomson. He is the face of Union corruption (another great KIWI export!) and the reason Gillard's minority Govt survives. Politics aside, economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate and this can only mean a tough first half to 2013 despite the flood of money supply!

Collinson FX market Commentary: January 31, 2013

US GDP contracted for the final quarter of 2012 surprising analysts but confirming many rational observers fears. The market had been expecting the economy to continue expansion as seen in the previous quarter and the news shocked many.

This comes on the tail of the dramatic fall in Consumer Confidence as Obamanomics impacts the economy. The sheer size of the Govt and the cost results are drowning the private sector with deficits and debt. Obama has advocated raising revenue through taxes instead of cutting out of control spending. The Govt has expanded to 25% of the economy from around 20%. This is a lurch to the left and down the road of socialist Europe and thus the future is clearly laid out. The Fed is to continue QE infinity despite the record breaking Balance sheet of over $3 Trillion Dollars.

The sheer size of this monstrosity will impact the economy and result in hyper-inflation down the road. The GDP numbers confirms the lack of growth which is the only thing keeping the lid on inflation. The EUR remained steady at 1.3560 supported by the weak USD. EU Consumer Confidence remained weak and Spanish GDP was negative extending the recession/depression. In the US, the ADP Jobs report beat expectations for growth in the private sector but Weekly Mortgages fell 8.1%. The Fed left rates unchanged and confirmed weather effects on the US economy so it is full steam ahead on QE!

The KIWI was steady, trading 0.8315, ahead of the RBNZ rate decision with not expectations of action. The Governor should cut rates now, in line with other Central Banks, to protect export markets and stimulate growth internally. The AUD trades 1.0420 supported by commodity demand after PM Gillard named a date for the general election in September thereby kicking off the longest election campaign in history! Economic data confirms the state of global economies and equity markets ignore the fundamentals with the bulls in charge, with their boots full of cheap cash supplied by Central Banks

Rawene - A11 digs into a big one - 2013 Mahurangi Regatta  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: January 30, 2013

The bull run continues for 2013 equities emboldened by corporate earnings and an economy awash with cash. Investors desperately search for returns with bonds offering little and equities offering dividend returns and capital gains. The Fed has tripled the balance sheet and flooded the markets with cash thereby encouraging a spike in risk asset investments.

Equities are the major beneficiaries as they approach the pre-crash levels.The ability to print money and expand the Fed's balance sheet has taken the Balance Sheet to unprecedented levels which should scare the hell out of most. The only mitigating factor is that the EU and Japan have quadrupled their own Balance Sheet with gross monitisation of debt.

The Debt mounts to way past tipping levels, which should trigger a debt crises but does not...yet! Any rise in interest rates will trigger default and collapse but why should we worry? The EUR continued to gain, trading 1.3485, although the reality of the real world is starting to impact the GBP at 1.5750. In the US, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index continued to book gains contradicting previous housing data although the Consumer has withdrawn with Confidence falling to 58.6 from 66.7! Commodities find support as currencies are undermined by Central banks with the AUD rising to 1.0465 along with the flood waters.

The KIWI found support at 0.8350 with better than expected trade numbers and reserve currency support. Unrelenting confidence must be questioned with the Deficit/Debt crises around the corner but it is hard to buck the trend with Equity markets surging to post crash high testing unchartered territory. Look to economic data releases for a gauge of economic conditions.

Thelma - 2013 Mahurangi Regatta  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: January 29, 2013
Markets opened the new week lower with corporate earnings steady and some weaker housing news. The flat open to the week may just be a break in the rally January has developed. In the US, Pending Home Sales fell 4.3% contradicting the housing bulls and confounding market analysts. The sheer size of the housing surplus and weak demand would prevent any sudden and effective turn-around.

Durable Goods Orders jumped 4.6% which is good news and a positive from the consumer. The EUR continues to trade strongly at 1.3450 after the currency wars continue. The Japanese are intent on boosting their flagging export markets by diluting the Yen causing consternation in Europe and the US. The US and Europe have flooded their own markets in liquidity to gain an export advantage and stimulate growth so have little to complain about.

The currencies greatly effected are the AUD and KIWI who remain hugely disadvantaged and has been reflected in the strength of the currencies. The AUD has come off highs but still trades over 1.0400 after renewed floods in Queensland and NSW will preoccupy markets when they re-open after the Australia Day Holiday.

The KIWI begins the week 0.8315 with poor economic performance not being fully included in currency calculations due to Global Monetary largesse. Markets will continue to be driven by Central Banks and Political/fiscal ineptitude. Economic performance will be gauged by data and expectations cannot be high!?

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=106166

7:40 PM Thu 31 Jan 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

31 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 31, 2013 - Cash rate held
30 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 30, 2013 - Bull run continues
29 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 29, 2013 - Flat Opening
25 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 25, 2013 - Rallies continue
24 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 24, 2013 - AUD + KIWI up
23 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 23, 2013 - AUD and KIWI rise
23 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 22, 2013 - Europe rallies
21 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 21, 2013 - KIWI dips on shrink
19 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 19, 2013 - Markets surge
17 Jan 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: January 17, 2013 - Europe steady
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World











470 Men and Women Worlds - Champions decided in Santander by International 470 Class Association,
















































Big Boat Series - It's not the size, it's the length by Erik Simonson, Pressure-Drop.US,








ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - RS:X winner images by Barbara Sanchez
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio 2016 470 spots awarded
52 Super Series 2015 - Outlook looks hot for the 52 Super Series
Starboard Hatteras Wave Jam - Another early start on day 4
ISAF Sailing World - First entry leaves sailor's reputation in tatters
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Four go through to quarter finals
470 Men and Women Worlds - Champs take over leaderboard
ISAF Sailing World Champ - Buckingham finishes with career-best result
America's Cup: Oracle's Larry Ellison to step down as CEO
Classic Yacht Regatta - Sonny takes top classic prize
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Buckingham finishes with career best
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio 2016 RS:X spots claimed
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Leaderboards shaping up in Santander + Video
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Giles Scott continues to extend lead
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Day 7 images by Sailing Energy
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Laser and Radial winner images by Jesus Renedo
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Medal Race images by Sail-World.com
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Dutch dominate Laser and Radial in Santander
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing more than doubles overall lead
J/24 World Championship - Excitement builds for Newport racing
Volvo Ocean Race - Seb Marsset joins Team Alvimedica   
Fall Seamanship training opportunities at New York Yacht Club   
Rolex Big Boat Series: More images from San Francisco - Final Day   
AWT Hatteras Wave Jam action commences on day 3   
Rolex Big Boat Series: Images from San Francisco - Final Day   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Watch medal races live here   
Hobie 16 Open North American Championships and Pan Am Games qualifier   
ISAF Sailing World Championship - Videos from Santander   
ISAF Sailing Worlds: Buckingham into Medal Race, 470's stay consistent   
470 Men and Women Worlds - Vadlau and Ogar into pole position   
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Defending champion on top   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Strong competition for RS:X fleets   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Big breeze on day 6 + Video   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Buckingham into Laser Medal Race   
U.S. Multihull Championship - Hobie Alter Trophy to be decided   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - The kind of form most sailors only dream about   
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing ahead of target   
ISAF Worlds Santander - 19 Rio 2016 Laser Radial spots awarded   
Santander 2014 ISAF Worlds - 21 broadcasters to take live coverage   
Rolex Swan Cup - Looking forward to the next 30 years   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT