sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 6, 2012 - US Boost
Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 6, 2012 - US Boost

'Image of the day America’s Cup World Series San Francisco 2012 October, Race Day 4'    Gilles Martin-Raget: AmericasCup©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 6, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Non-Farm Payrolls report came in as estimated with 114,000 jobs added to the US economy but Unemployment surprisingly dropped to 7.8%. The explanation lies in the amount of people no longer looking for work so the workforce is shrinking thus impacting the employment rate.

This was the overwhelming driver of markets but the boost was short lived as the employment reports were digested. The EUR rose to 1.3030 and the GBP to 1.6125. Commodities fell and this impacted the associated currencies with AUD falling to 1.0175 and the KIWI back to 0.8175.

The new week will focus on economic data globally as election fever rises in the US.

Political-Economic developments in Europe will have a big impact on markets with Merkel scheduled to visit Greece where she is not flavour of the month!

Image of the Day Cannes, France, 25 September 2012 - Panerai Classic Yacht Challenge - Regates Royales de Cannes 2012 -  Guido Cantini   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 5, 2012

Central Bank commentary added some support to recent market rallies with 'Super Mario' endorsing the recently announced Bond-buying program. He announced the ECB's readiness to embark on the Bond-Buying program at the request of needy member nations.

The term Jaw-boning seems to have worked nicely with the ECB not having to act at all and the commitment being enough to sway market sentiment. Strangely, they have only committed to underwriting debt to enable members to afford maintenance of ever-growing debt. They have a plethora of austerity measures which have been endorsed and committed to. Unfortunately the deficits roll on adding to overwhelming debt.

The lack of growth has multiplied the problem as recession crushes hope and growing public expenditure to support the social safety net over-runs revenues which are contracting. Equities rallied, despite fundamentals, and the EUR took advantage rising to 1.3015 and the GBP 1.6185. The US found heart in European developments and equities rallied ignoring weaker economic data.

Planned layoffs increased, as revealed by the Challenger Jobs report. Weekly Jobless Claims rose for the week and Factory Orders fell 5.2%. The great redeemer, in the form of Ben Bernanke, saved the day with the revelation of almost unanimity in support of QE Infinity. The dissenter may be in the majority of the real world, in terms of effect.

Commodities rallied giving support to the recently harpooned AUD. The reduced yields had cut the AUD to below 1.0200 but a rally in risk appetite had stabilised recent falls.

The KIWI regained the 0.8200 level and continues to thrive as a target until the Reserve Bank remove the incentive with interest rate differentials. Non-Farm Payroll will drive the close of the week and the stunning win by Romney in the Presidential debate will give heart to markets.

03/10/2012, San Francisco (USA,CA), 34th America's Cup, America's Cup World Series San Francisco 2012 october - Match Racing Qualifiers  Gilles Martin-Raget: AmericasCup©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 4, 2012

Global economic conditions continue to deteriorate with the Chinese PMI falling from 56.3 to 53.7 and the EU Composite PMI at 46.1 remembering that under 50 is contraction! The EUR sits at 1.2900 and the GBP slipped to 1.6075.

Equity markets were trading flat after the poor economic news from Asia and Europe. The upside was some promising news from the US in the form of rising Private Sector Jobs. The ADP Jobs report revealed an increase of 162,000 which may bode well for the all important Non-Farm Payrolls Friday. The weak economic situation has seen a fall in demand with flagging growth. Oil has slipped back with other hard commodities and this trend is likely to continue.

Fundamentals point to contraction so reduced demand will impact input prices with Oil front and centre. Australia has experienced this with the collapse in the price of Iron and Coal leading to a fall in profitability and thus investment.

The RBA has acted by cutting the cost of capital and reducing interest rates. They need to cut them closer to zero to stimulate the local economy and take the heat off the currency which is destroying trade exposed sectors. The Reserve Bank in NZ needs to respond in kind and have a look at rates in Europe and the US. Most Western countries have rates close to zero thus exposing commodity currencies with higher yields. There can be no inflation without growth although energy and food prices continue to rise.

The Reserve Bank has resisted more interest rate cuts to prevent a Housing bubble but this is unavoidable until the cost of housing falls. The cost of housing has been due to the National supply thus the pressures of price comes from the lack thereof. Interest rates must be lower to offset international pressures and the global recession.

The AUD has reacted to the rate cut falling to 1.0200 although the KIWI has remained stubbornly high at 0.8180. Look for Non-Farm Payrolls and Central bank activities for market direction.

HISPANIA - Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez  © Rolex-Carlo Borlenghi  

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 3, 2012

The RBA surprised economic pundits by cutting rates from 3.50 to 3.25%. Calls from across the struggling economy were heard as economic conditions have deteriorated accentuated by the decline in mining prices and thus revenues.

The RBA also recognised the relative uncompetitiveness the AUD has had on trade exposed sectors including Manufacturing, Tourism etc. The cut in rates hit the AUD, which has fallen a cent to 1.0265, and weakened against crossrates improving export conditions being eroded by moves from Central Banks from the US to Europe.

The cut reflected weakening Global Economic conditions and the refusal of the Spanish to accept a bailout pushing equities lower. In the US this was not swallowed well and the boost received from yesterdays Manufacturing data was not enough to ignore the fundamentals which point to a global recession including the US.

The US is now firmly in election mode with the fiscal cliff likely to spawn fear in investors hearts and wallets. Four more years of economic stagnation may be a great reason to boot out the architect of European Socialism in America!

The KIWI held strongly, despite moves across the Tasman, with the NZD holding 0.8275 and gaining against the AUD moving to 0.8050(1.2400!).

284019 434218549948530 1601808894 n - Oracle Team USA - Day 4, San Francisco  Guilain Grenier Oracle Team USA©  

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 2, 2012

Equity markets rallied strongly for the new quarter in Europe and the US. European markets received a boost with the Spanish Banks 'passing a stress test' thus enabling Moodys to relent on a downgrade. The risk aversion subsided and equity markets pushed north .

The positive start spread from Europe to the US and was super charged by the Manufacturing data. The ISM Manufacturing Index broke into expansionary territory rising to 51.5 from 49.6 defying recent regional manufacturing reports. Ben Bernanke appeared and reinforced QE infinity extolling it's virtues,. The argument is cheap money will boost investment in housing, equities, business etc, creating greater wealth thus boosting consumption. It has worked superbly well for the last few years in destroying real wealth as the USD slides in relative terms!

The boost to Housing from previous QE has been negligible and this continues to weigh on the economy with construction spending falling for the seventh straight month to -0.6%!

A surge in equities was not reflected in the risk currencies with the AUD holding 1.0375 and the KIWI just below 0.8300. Gold remains popular with the erosion of currencies through Central Bank stimulus.

Central Banks will be watched closely this week with rate decisions across the globe led by the RBA today. The RBA is not expected to cut rates, in surveys of economists, but many believe there is scope for action with low inflation and flagging growth. A surprise cut may well hit the currency!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=102686

9:46 AM Sun 7 Oct 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

05 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 5, 2012 - Bond-buying
04 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 4, 2012 - China flat
03 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 3, 2012 - Oz Bank chops rate
02 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 2, 2012 - Equity markets rally
29 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 29, 2012 - Spanish Stress
29 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 28, 2012 - Risk appetite up
27 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 27, 2012 - Europe's on brink
26 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 26, 2012 - Treading water
22 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 21, 2012 - Data pushes KIWI
20 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 20, 2012 - Japan buys bonds
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

America's Cup: Team New Zealand responds to Venue rumours *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Emirates Team New Zealand has responded to reports published in Bermuda and mainland USA, that Bermuda has been selected as venue for the 35th America's Cup. In a media release sent mid-afternoon, New Zealand time, Emirates Team NZ CEO Grant Dalton said in response to unconfirmed reports that Bermuda had won the right to host the 35th America’s Cup, that the team had not been told of a decision ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Leg 2. Team Alvimedica’s OBR Amory Ross reports on the Leg 2 start and progress. Well, now we know what it feels like to be shot from of a cannon! That was utter insanity. When the gun went I think there was almost no wind at all—two knots or something—but as we slowly crept out from under the shadow of Table Mountain it changed drastically. ... [more]  

Amidst a 10% growth report on having issued over 9000 certificates worldwide in 2014, the recent Annual General Meeting of the Offshore Racing Congress is pleased to announces numerous improvements approved for use in the ORC Rules and policies for 2015. ... [more]  

The start of Leg 2 offered all the wind conditions you could want. I will not lie: I was pretty nervous to begin leg 2 of the Volvo Ocean Race (Mom called it ‘Stage Fright’); I think the whole team was pretty nervous. Here we are, having confidently completed the first leg of the Volvo Ocean Race—after 27 days at sea! ... [more]  

The ISAF Sailing World Cup Final in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates is set to be 'an experience of a lifetime' according to American Women's 470 sailor Briana Provancha. Some of the world’s top Men’s and Women’s 470 teams will make up the individual fleets with some excellent racing on the cards. ... [more]  

After finishing third in the annual RC44 match race championships, Team Nika seem to have got a taste for the podium. It was a tough day on the water for the start of fleet racing at the RC44 Oman Cup, with many teams struggling for consistency. ... [more]  

St Barth Cata Cup 2014 - Game on! by Dominique Ladouceur
The boats are ready and the sailors have all had a chance to test their catamarans in a very rigorous St-John Bay. The conditions will be windy at the start of this seventh edition of the St-Barth Cata Cup. Sailors will be facing winds from the west at 18 knots with gusts at 22 knots on the first race day. ... [more]  

While more modifications are being mooted for the champion supermaxi yacht Wild Oats XI as part of her preparation for next month’s Rolex Sydney Hobart yacht race, a high-profile new member of the team was revealed on Sydney Harbour today. ... [more]  

Wild Oats XI and Audi are ready to give the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart a shot! Photos by Andrea Francolini. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Meek's tips pay dividend in Leg 2 squalls and calms *Feature by Bob Fisher, Cape Town, South Africa
The seven competing boats in the Volvo Ocean Race 2014-2015 roughly gathered at 6pm local time (1600 Zulu) in a south-easterly wind that peaked at 30-40 knots, which had the local habit of dying away to nothing in places along the shoreline in the lee of Table Mountain. The clever skippers has sought advice from Geoff Meek, a local with a mass of experience ... [more]  

Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (ADOR), the Emirate’s entry into the Volvo Ocean Race 2014–15, cast off on the next leg of the epic, round-the-world race on Wednesday evening hoping to complete a hat-trick of victories in the best place possible – the team’s home port of Abu Dhabi. ... [more]  

Over 600 scientists gathered in Barcelona for the second International Ocean Research Conference have this evening named the skippers in the Barcelona World Race, the first and only double-handed, round the world regatta with no stops, as scientific agents during their upcoming circumnavigation of the globe, departing from the Catalan capital on December 31st. ... [more]  

Team Alvimedica set out on the 6,125 nautical mile race to Abu Dhabi today, as they sailed out of Cape Town at the start of Leg 2 of the Volvo Ocean Race. After a brief lap of Table Bay, with the Turkish/American boat close to the lead, it was straight into battle. ... [more]  

Skippers of the seven boats in the Volvo Ocean Race fleet, which set out for the 6,125 nautical mile (nm) Leg 2 from Cape From the very start on Wednesday (1800 local/1600 UTC), the sailors were given a taste of things to come with gusts of up to 35 knots kicking up a procession of white-capped waves. It was a question of 'don't break your boat' as most opted for conservative sail choices, whil ... [more]  

An invigorated, rested and relatively relaxed crew on Team SCA led the Volvo Ocean Race fleet from Cape Town late this afternoon at the start Leg Two of the Volvo Ocean Race to Abu Dhabi. The 6,125-mile leg will provide a large variety of conditions and will require good seamanship and good navigational choices. ... [more]  

A whole host of Olympic heroes and World Champions will fight it out in the Nacra 17 at the inaugural ISAF Sailing World Cup Final in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates from 26-30 November 2014. The 17-boat Nacra 17 fleet features an abundance of Olympians with no less than 18 appearances stemming from Atlanta 1996 within the 17-boat fleet of 34 sailors. ... [more]  

The ISAF Sailing World Cup Final Finn fleet is made up of some exceptional talent with Great Britain's Ed Wright and Pieter Jan Postma (NED) coming in to Abu Dhabi, UAE with good form. Wright has been a permanent fixture on World Championship and ISAF Sailing World Cup podiums in recent years. ... [more]  

The RC44 Oman Cup opened with the season’s final day of match racing. Defending champions Team Aqua held a slim one-point lead over Synergy Russian Sailing Team who were fighting for the trophy they last won in 2012. Vladimir Prosikhin’s Team Nika started the day in third, with Hugues Lepic just two-points adrift in fourth and keen to get the French flag onto the podium. ... [more]  

Leg 2 of the Volvo Ocean Race is underway. Catch ther replay here, if you missed the 90 minutes of racing action in Cape Town. The sailing is spectacular! ... [more]  

Visiting Cape Town was more than just a stopover in the Volvo Ocean Race for Team Alvimedica, but was an opportunity to really get to know the people and the culture of the 'mother city.' Take a look at how the team get involved while in Cape Town from meeting Archbishop Desmond Tutu to visiting heart surgery patients at the Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital. ... [more]  

15th Ambassadors Cup - Brazil claims victory by May Ling Teo, Changi Sailing Club
Light winds didn’t dampen the enthusiasm of the 20 ambassadors who competed in the 15th annual Changi Sailing Club’s Ambassadors’ Cup, nor did the gentle breezes take the edge off the competitive spirit of the skippers and the crew who competed for the prestigious prize. ... [more]  

Spanish solo skipper Alex Pella wrote himself into the history books of the Route du Rhum solo Transatlantic race and Spanish ocean racing when he crossed the finish line of the 3,542 miles La Route du Rhum-Destination Guadeloupe race first in Classe40 at 06:47:08 hrs TU/07:47:08hrs CET/02:47:08 Local Guadeloupe. ... [more]  

Star Sailors League Finals 2014, Nassau (Bahamas) - Robert Stanjek will be attempting to bring a stunning 2014 season to a fittingly impressive conclusion in the big upcoming Finals in Nassau in two weeks’ time. The second half of the year has proved particularly rewarding for the German sailor. ... [more]  

Two English born Finn sailors, once coach and student, will draw swords at the ISAF Sailing World Cup in December on Port Phillip. Both are gunning for national team selection and a chance to represent their country at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games, Ed Wright sailing for Great Britain and Oli Tweddell representing Australia, where he’s lived for the past decade. ... [more]  

Yachting Australia has announced the appointment of experienced and respected sports administrator Matt Carroll to the role of Chief Executive Officer. Matt commences with Yachting Australia on Monday 24 November 2014, replacing Phil Jones who is leaving the organisation after 17 years at the helm. He comes from a background of roles in Australian and Japanese Rugby and Rugby World Cup. ... [more]  

The Alpari World Match Racing Tour (AWMRT) has announced the addition of the Congressional Cup to the 2015 World Championship Tour schedule. The announcement follows this year’s 50th anniversary of the historic Congressional Cup event, organised by Long Beach Yacht Club, in Long Beach, California. ... [more]  

18ft Skiffs: Smeg's second Red-Line run down Sydney harbour in 40kts *Feature by Michael Chittenden, Sydney harbour
In a sport which generally lacks characters, the 18ft skiffs have an over-supply. David Witt is one of those, underlined by taking his boat and crew out last Sunday daring the rest of the Sydney fleet to race in a breeze of 30-40kts, on an otherwise ideal day on Sydney Harbour. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race sailors set out again for the open seas on Wednesday with no piracy activity on their radar, but the threat of cyclones ahead on Leg 2 from Cape Town to Abu Dhabi. Sailing conditions in Cape Town look challenging for the 1800 start (local time)/1600 UTC, with plenty of wind, but flat seas forecast. ... [more]  

On the opening day of the Airwaves Noumea PWA Dream Cup, which is the final event on the 2014 PWA World Tour, the competitors registered for the upcoming six days of contest, which will see fifty-seven men and twelve women battling it out over Noumea’s pristine waters. ... [more]  

There are 11 days to go until a highly competitive fleet competes in the inaugural RORC Transatlantic Race from Lanzarote to Grenada. The race across the Atlantic will be a very different experience for the crews from 12 different nations taking part. ... [more]  

The Volvo Ocean Race restarts from Cape Town on Wednesday local time. Here is the full replay of the Media Conference with all seven skippers on stage, talking of the prospect of a tropical cyclone, the nuances of this Leg - which won't see the boats hopping on a ship to avoid pirates, and the other challenges facing the crews and their teams. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race - Team Vestas Wind ready to race by Brian Carlin, Team Vestas Wind
It’s the day before departure for Leg 2 of the Volvo Ocean Race and we are much better prepared than the Leg 1 start in Alicante. We all have our small list of jobs to complete today but all being well; we will be out of the team base mid afternoon to take some personal time. ... [more]  

Young sailors in Abu Dhabi made sure to practice their ‘Go Azzam!’ cheers this week as Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (ADOR) – the emirate’s entrant in the Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - prepared for the next leg of the round-the-world yacht challenge – the race from South Africa to the UAE capital. ... [more]  

18fters: Getting through the 'Death Zone' in a 35kt breeze *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race: Sam Davies speaks openly about the first leg *Feature
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final: Exciting 49er and 49erFX action expected
America's Cup: Significant changes made to Protocol, but issues remain *Feature
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - the 70th
Stoke Beer 18ft Skiff Auckland Champs: Knight Frank lead after 5 races
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - RS:X elite Abu Dhabi bound
120 boat start line for Tasar Worlds in Busselton
Melges 24 U.S. Nationals - Full Throttle team grabs their sixth title
RC44 Oman Cup - Grand final showdown on the horizon
Visit Doyle Sails New Zealand at METS 2014
Top Kiwi Finn sailor debuts in the 2014 Star Sailors League Finals
2014 Butler Cup - Shane Young wins match race regatta
Adventures of a Sailor Girl: News and interviews from Nov 16 show *Feature
2014 Melges 24 U.S. National Championship - Moon wind
Australian 18ft Skiffs: 40kt winds cancel race but Witt sails + Video
2014 Melges 24 US National Championship - Day 2 images by Joy Dunigan
Volvo Ocean Race: Abu Dhabi are the Kings of Cape Town
Volvo Ocean Race: In Port races do count *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race: Abu Dhabi rules in Cape Town In Port Race
Volvo Ocean Race - Tricky In-Port Race for Team Alvimedica   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team SCA third in Cape Town In-Port Race   
A Sailor's Dream Home in the beautiful Bay of Islands - Auction 22 Nov   
Volvo Ocean Race: Cape Town In Port Race video and Media Conference *Feature   
2014 Brazilian Championship - Day 2   
2014 U.S. Melges 24 National Championship - Long haul   
2014 - 15 Volvo Ocean Race - The thinking trio   
US Sailing Team to celebrate Clearwater Training Center   
Moth Worlds 2015: Sliced bread, sheep stations, awe and reverence *Feature   
Volvo Ocean race: Images from the Practice racing in Cape Town *Feature   
Volvo Ocean Race - Lindsay Dibowitz sails on board Team Alvimedica   
Volvo Ocean Race: Big breeze for Practice Racing in Cape Town *Feature   
Volvo Ocean Race - All-clear from piracy threat   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team SCA confirms Leg 2 crew   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - Laser and Laser Radial sailors all set   
Star Sailors League Finals - France to be represented   
67th Turkey Day Regatta - ABYC dishes up another special regatta   
Dual Olympian Krystal Weir announces retirement from Olympic Sailing   
Volvo Ocean Race: Sibling rivalry, Greenhalghs prepare to race   
Star Sailors League Finals - Kljakovic Gaspic and Sitic to race   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT