sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 6, 2012 - US Boost
Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 6, 2012 - US Boost

'Image of the day America’s Cup World Series San Francisco 2012 October, Race Day 4'    Gilles Martin-Raget: AmericasCup©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 6, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Non-Farm Payrolls report came in as estimated with 114,000 jobs added to the US economy but Unemployment surprisingly dropped to 7.8%. The explanation lies in the amount of people no longer looking for work so the workforce is shrinking thus impacting the employment rate.

This was the overwhelming driver of markets but the boost was short lived as the employment reports were digested. The EUR rose to 1.3030 and the GBP to 1.6125. Commodities fell and this impacted the associated currencies with AUD falling to 1.0175 and the KIWI back to 0.8175.

The new week will focus on economic data globally as election fever rises in the US.

Political-Economic developments in Europe will have a big impact on markets with Merkel scheduled to visit Greece where she is not flavour of the month!

Image of the Day Cannes, France, 25 September 2012 - Panerai Classic Yacht Challenge - Regates Royales de Cannes 2012 -  Guido Cantini   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 5, 2012

Central Bank commentary added some support to recent market rallies with 'Super Mario' endorsing the recently announced Bond-buying program. He announced the ECB's readiness to embark on the Bond-Buying program at the request of needy member nations.

The term Jaw-boning seems to have worked nicely with the ECB not having to act at all and the commitment being enough to sway market sentiment. Strangely, they have only committed to underwriting debt to enable members to afford maintenance of ever-growing debt. They have a plethora of austerity measures which have been endorsed and committed to. Unfortunately the deficits roll on adding to overwhelming debt.

The lack of growth has multiplied the problem as recession crushes hope and growing public expenditure to support the social safety net over-runs revenues which are contracting. Equities rallied, despite fundamentals, and the EUR took advantage rising to 1.3015 and the GBP 1.6185. The US found heart in European developments and equities rallied ignoring weaker economic data.

Planned layoffs increased, as revealed by the Challenger Jobs report. Weekly Jobless Claims rose for the week and Factory Orders fell 5.2%. The great redeemer, in the form of Ben Bernanke, saved the day with the revelation of almost unanimity in support of QE Infinity. The dissenter may be in the majority of the real world, in terms of effect.

Commodities rallied giving support to the recently harpooned AUD. The reduced yields had cut the AUD to below 1.0200 but a rally in risk appetite had stabilised recent falls.

The KIWI regained the 0.8200 level and continues to thrive as a target until the Reserve Bank remove the incentive with interest rate differentials. Non-Farm Payroll will drive the close of the week and the stunning win by Romney in the Presidential debate will give heart to markets.

03/10/2012, San Francisco (USA,CA), 34th America's Cup, America's Cup World Series San Francisco 2012 october - Match Racing Qualifiers  Gilles Martin-Raget: AmericasCup©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 4, 2012

Global economic conditions continue to deteriorate with the Chinese PMI falling from 56.3 to 53.7 and the EU Composite PMI at 46.1 remembering that under 50 is contraction! The EUR sits at 1.2900 and the GBP slipped to 1.6075.

Equity markets were trading flat after the poor economic news from Asia and Europe. The upside was some promising news from the US in the form of rising Private Sector Jobs. The ADP Jobs report revealed an increase of 162,000 which may bode well for the all important Non-Farm Payrolls Friday. The weak economic situation has seen a fall in demand with flagging growth. Oil has slipped back with other hard commodities and this trend is likely to continue.

Fundamentals point to contraction so reduced demand will impact input prices with Oil front and centre. Australia has experienced this with the collapse in the price of Iron and Coal leading to a fall in profitability and thus investment.

The RBA has acted by cutting the cost of capital and reducing interest rates. They need to cut them closer to zero to stimulate the local economy and take the heat off the currency which is destroying trade exposed sectors. The Reserve Bank in NZ needs to respond in kind and have a look at rates in Europe and the US. Most Western countries have rates close to zero thus exposing commodity currencies with higher yields. There can be no inflation without growth although energy and food prices continue to rise.

The Reserve Bank has resisted more interest rate cuts to prevent a Housing bubble but this is unavoidable until the cost of housing falls. The cost of housing has been due to the National supply thus the pressures of price comes from the lack thereof. Interest rates must be lower to offset international pressures and the global recession.

The AUD has reacted to the rate cut falling to 1.0200 although the KIWI has remained stubbornly high at 0.8180. Look for Non-Farm Payrolls and Central bank activities for market direction.

HISPANIA - Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez  © Rolex-Carlo Borlenghi  

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 3, 2012

The RBA surprised economic pundits by cutting rates from 3.50 to 3.25%. Calls from across the struggling economy were heard as economic conditions have deteriorated accentuated by the decline in mining prices and thus revenues.

The RBA also recognised the relative uncompetitiveness the AUD has had on trade exposed sectors including Manufacturing, Tourism etc. The cut in rates hit the AUD, which has fallen a cent to 1.0265, and weakened against crossrates improving export conditions being eroded by moves from Central Banks from the US to Europe.

The cut reflected weakening Global Economic conditions and the refusal of the Spanish to accept a bailout pushing equities lower. In the US this was not swallowed well and the boost received from yesterdays Manufacturing data was not enough to ignore the fundamentals which point to a global recession including the US.

The US is now firmly in election mode with the fiscal cliff likely to spawn fear in investors hearts and wallets. Four more years of economic stagnation may be a great reason to boot out the architect of European Socialism in America!

The KIWI held strongly, despite moves across the Tasman, with the NZD holding 0.8275 and gaining against the AUD moving to 0.8050(1.2400!).

284019 434218549948530 1601808894 n - Oracle Team USA - Day 4, San Francisco  Guilain Grenier Oracle Team USA©  

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 2, 2012

Equity markets rallied strongly for the new quarter in Europe and the US. European markets received a boost with the Spanish Banks 'passing a stress test' thus enabling Moodys to relent on a downgrade. The risk aversion subsided and equity markets pushed north .

The positive start spread from Europe to the US and was super charged by the Manufacturing data. The ISM Manufacturing Index broke into expansionary territory rising to 51.5 from 49.6 defying recent regional manufacturing reports. Ben Bernanke appeared and reinforced QE infinity extolling it's virtues,. The argument is cheap money will boost investment in housing, equities, business etc, creating greater wealth thus boosting consumption. It has worked superbly well for the last few years in destroying real wealth as the USD slides in relative terms!

The boost to Housing from previous QE has been negligible and this continues to weigh on the economy with construction spending falling for the seventh straight month to -0.6%!

A surge in equities was not reflected in the risk currencies with the AUD holding 1.0375 and the KIWI just below 0.8300. Gold remains popular with the erosion of currencies through Central Bank stimulus.

Central Banks will be watched closely this week with rate decisions across the globe led by the RBA today. The RBA is not expected to cut rates, in surveys of economists, but many believe there is scope for action with low inflation and flagging growth. A surprise cut may well hit the currency!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=102686

9:46 AM Sun 7 Oct 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

05 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 5, 2012 - Bond-buying
04 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 4, 2012 - China flat
03 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 3, 2012 - Oz Bank chops rate
02 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 2, 2012 - Equity markets rally
29 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 29, 2012 - Spanish Stress
29 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 28, 2012 - Risk appetite up
27 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 27, 2012 - Europe's on brink
26 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 26, 2012 - Treading water
22 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 21, 2012 - Data pushes KIWI
20 Sep 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: September 20, 2012 - Japan buys bonds
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

The world’s largest sailing media group, Sail-World.com, held its first continental group meeting at the Marine Equipment Trade Show (METS) this week. METS is the world’s largest B2B Marine show and this year it had a record 1358 exhibitors and more than 21,000 Marine industry representatives. ... [more]  

Brian Carlin, On Board Reporter for Team Vestas Wind reports on the delights of using the 'bathroom' while clocking along at 20kts plus in the Southern Ocean. ... [more]  

At the RC44 Oman Cup the 10 competing teams enjoyed a great sailing day on the Gulf of Oman for the penultimate day of the 2014 Championship Tour. Racing started in a seven-knot north-westerly breeze which built steadily throughout the day. ... [more]  

At the ISAF Sailing World Cup Final in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates 2013 World Champion Florian Gruber is expecting the Open Formula Kiteboarding event to be the, 'strongest fleet this year.' ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Fleet heads into the Southern Ocean + Videos *Feature by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
At the latest report, Volvo Ocean Race Control, reported Dongfeng Race Team as being the leader in the second leg to Abu Dhabi. Winds were reported to be 18-25kts, with Team Vestas Wind and Team SCA recording the highest boatspeed of 20kts. ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - Abu Dhabi - The ISAF Sailing World Cup Final in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates is set to be an 'experience of a lifetime' according to American Women's 470 sailor Briana Provancha. ... [more]  

America's Cup: Source named in Bermuda venue leak *Feature by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
San Diego sports journalist, Matt Calkins, has named one of the sources of comment that the 35th America's Cup will be held in the British Oversea Territory of Bermuda. Writing in the San Diego Union Tribune, Calkins claimed that San Diego Tourism Authority CEO, Joe Terzi, had told the U-T. ... [more]  

2014 RC44 Oman Cup - Consistency was hard to come by and no team managed to stay in the top half of the fleet in all three races. Chris Bake’s Team Aqua (GBR) was the most consistent team of the day picking up 11-points, Nika and Charisma both added 12-points to their overall score. ... [more]  

2014 - 15 Volvo Ocean Race - Team Vestas Wind’s Rob Salthouse perches perilously on the edge of his bunk, eyes fixed on a well-earned freeze-dried feast, steam snaking up towards his nostrils. ... [more]  

Ensuring a safe fuel supply for America’s 12 million registered boat owners may have to wait, said Boat Owners Association of The United States (BoatUS) after the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that the agency will further delay the final rule on how much ethanol refiners must blend into the nation’s gasoline supply under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). ... [more]  

Yates Cup: US supermaxi Rio100 wins first offshore race *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
The supermaxi Bakewell-White design, Rio100 (Manouch Moshayedi, USA) has won her first race, sailing in the Yates Cup. She finished at 7.30am on Saturday morning, followed by the Botin 80 Beau Geste 14 minutes later with the Volvo 70 Giacomo 67minutes later. ... [more]  

The wind continued to blow on day four of the Airwaves Noumea PWA Dream Cup to produce another action packed day in New Caledonia, as a further three races for the men and four races for the women were completed in 15-25 knot winds. By the end of the day Ben Van Der Steen headed to the top of the rankings after a near perfect display. ... [more]  

The Oman RC44 Cup delivered another challenging sailing day for the fleet competing in the final event of the 2014 Championship Tour. Consistency was hard to come by and no team managed to stay in the top half of the fleet in all three races. Team Aqua was the most consistent team of the day picking up 11-points, Nika and Charisma both added 12-points to their overall score. ... [more]  

The fast southeast sailing continues in the Volvo Ocean Race but where excitement and adrenaline began—discomfort has taken over. We’re seeing an average of about 25 knots of wind but the sea state is making life somewhat miserable! ... [more]  

To summarize the last 24 hours of the Volvo Ocean Race in one word: change. The weather, the water, the sails, and our bodies are all equally (and rapidly) changing. The first full day at sea, we have experienced what some trips see in a week—if they’re lucky enough. However, that said, change can also be frustrating. ... [more]  

A new and exciting Viper 640 European Event in 2015 has been announced by Rondar Boats Ltd. Lake Garda is one of the great sailing venues and already there are signed up entries from the UK and Australia, with potential entries from the USA. It’s a serious sailing regatta and Italian holiday in one event! ... [more]  

On Monday 17 November, an impressive line-up of speakers at 13th International Sailing Summit shared ideas and best practice from around the world, demonstrating how the sailing industry can change to increase and retain participation, through innovation, technology and cultural changes. British Cycling has seen its membership grow by 567% since 2005. ... [more]  

GC32 Racing Tour: State-of-the-art in catamaran design, the GC32 is attracting considerable interest due to its conceptual similarity to the AC72 and AC62 foiling catamarans pioneered in the America’s Cup. However as the GC32s are smaller one designs with soft sail rigs, they provide both professional teams and private owners with the opportunity to experience airborne catamaran racing. ... [more]  

Designed primarily for single-handed or double-handed racing, the high-performance monohulls have also been a fixture in such East Coast distance races as Newport-to-Bermuda and Marblehead-to-Halifax. Now the Class 40 is coming to the historic Annapolis-to-Newport Race for the first time. ... [more]  

Spectacular performance by Bakewell-White maxi early in first race *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
The revamped Bakewell-White supermaxi, Rio 100 (Manouch Moshayedi) turned in an impressive performance in the opening stages of the Yates Cup. Sailing against a variety of benchmarks which included a a Volvo 70, a Botin 80 and an ORMA 60, Rio 100 came from behind to enjoy an impressive lead over the monohulls after 90 minutes of sailing. ... [more]  

As promised the wind arrived on the third day of the Airwaves Noumea PWA Dream Cup to provide an enthralling day of challenging racing in winds ranging from 10-25 knots. After almost seven hours of racing three eliminations have been completed for the men, whilst four races have been completed for the women. ... [more]  

America's Cup: Team New Zealand responds to Venue rumours *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Emirates Team New Zealand has responded to reports published in Bermuda and mainland USA, that Bermuda has been selected as venue for the 35th America's Cup. In a media release sent mid-afternoon, New Zealand time, Emirates Team NZ CEO Grant Dalton said in response to unconfirmed reports that Bermuda had won the right to host the 35th America’s Cup, that the team had not been told of a decision ... [more]  

Amidst a 10% growth report on having issued over 9000 certificates worldwide in 2014, the recent Annual General Meeting of the Offshore Racing Congress is pleased to announces numerous improvements approved for use in the ORC Rules and policies for 2015. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Leg 2. Team Alvimedica’s OBR Amory Ross reports on the Leg 2 start and progress. Well, now we know what it feels like to be shot from of a cannon! That was utter insanity. When the gun went I think there was almost no wind at all—two knots or something—but as we slowly crept out from under the shadow of Table Mountain it changed drastically. ... [more]  

The start of Leg 2 offered all the wind conditions you could want. I will not lie: I was pretty nervous to begin leg 2 of the Volvo Ocean Race (Mom called it ‘Stage Fright’); I think the whole team was pretty nervous. Here we are, having confidently completed the first leg of the Volvo Ocean Race—after 27 days at sea! ... [more]  

The ISAF Sailing World Cup Final in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates is set to be 'an experience of a lifetime' according to American Women's 470 sailor Briana Provancha. Some of the world’s top Men’s and Women’s 470 teams will make up the individual fleets with some excellent racing on the cards. ... [more]  

After finishing third in the annual RC44 match race championships, Team Nika seem to have got a taste for the podium. It was a tough day on the water for the start of fleet racing at the RC44 Oman Cup, with many teams struggling for consistency. ... [more]  

St Barth Cata Cup 2014 - Game on! by Dominique Ladouceur
The boats are ready and the sailors have all had a chance to test their catamarans in a very rigorous St-John Bay. The conditions will be windy at the start of this seventh edition of the St-Barth Cata Cup. Sailors will be facing winds from the west at 18 knots with gusts at 22 knots on the first race day. ... [more]  

While more modifications are being mooted for the champion supermaxi yacht Wild Oats XI as part of her preparation for next month’s Rolex Sydney Hobart yacht race, a high-profile new member of the team was revealed on Sydney Harbour today. ... [more]  

Wild Oats XI and Audi are ready to give the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart a shot! Photos by Andrea Francolini. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Meek's tips pay dividend in Leg 2 squalls and calms *Feature by Bob Fisher, Cape Town, South Africa
The seven competing boats in the Volvo Ocean Race 2014-2015 roughly gathered at 6pm local time (1600 Zulu) in a south-easterly wind that peaked at 30-40 knots, which had the local habit of dying away to nothing in places along the shoreline in the lee of Table Mountain. The clever skippers has sought advice from Geoff Meek, a local with a mass of experience ... [more]  

Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (ADOR), the Emirate’s entry into the Volvo Ocean Race 2014–15, cast off on the next leg of the epic, round-the-world race on Wednesday evening hoping to complete a hat-trick of victories in the best place possible – the team’s home port of Abu Dhabi. ... [more]  

The waiting game continued on day two of the Airwaves Noumea Dream Cup PWA event, but the competitors’ patience wasn’t rewarded on this occasion as the wind remained too light for racing. A few sailors were tempted out onto the water, but apart from a few reaches of sporadic planing, the wind wasn’t enough and soon dropped back after showing promise in the early afternoon. ... [more]  

Barcelona World Race skippers named as scientific agents
Volvo Ocean Race: Stop-start battle to the Cape of Good Hope
Volvo Ocean Race: Leg 2 starts at high speed in 35kt winds
Volvo Ocean Race - Team SCA off to gutsy leg 2 start
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - Heroes and champions in Nacra 17 fleet
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - Talented Finn pack all set
RC44 Oman Cup - Synergy crowned RC44 Match Race Champions
Volvo Ocean Race: Leg 2 start - action replay video from Cape Town
Volvo Ocean Race: Team Alvimedica on tour in Cape Town
15th Ambassadors Cup - Brazil claims victory
Route du Rhum - Alex Pella first ever Spanish skipper to finish first
SSL Finals 2014 - Star World Champion Stanjek to race with Olesen
ISAF Sailing World Cup Melbourne: Finn fight looming on Port Phillip
Rugby man appointed Chief Executive Officer of Yachting Australia
Welcome back: Congressional Cup Joins Alpari World Match Racing Tour
18ft Skiffs: Smeg's second Red-Line run down Sydney harbour in 40kts *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race: Start Wednesday - Cyclone season awaits Leg 2 fleet
Airwaves Noumea PWA Dream Cup - Opening day in New Caledonia
RORC Transatlantic Race - Competitive fleet ready to race
Volvo Ocean Race: Leg 2 Media Conference - Full replay *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Vestas Wind ready to race   
Volvo Ocean Race: Young sailors get behind ADOR ahead of Leg 2   
18fters: Getting through the 'Death Zone' in a 35kt breeze *Feature   
Volvo Ocean Race: Sam Davies speaks openly about the first leg *Feature   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final: Exciting 49er and 49erFX action expected   
America's Cup: Significant changes made to Protocol, but issues remain *Feature   
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - the 70th   
Stoke Beer 18ft Skiff Auckland Champs: Knight Frank lead after 5 races   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - RS:X elite Abu Dhabi bound   
120 boat start line for Tasar Worlds in Busselton   
Melges 24 U.S. Nationals - Full Throttle team grabs their sixth title   
RC44 Oman Cup - Grand final showdown on the horizon   
Visit Doyle Sails New Zealand at METS 2014   
Top Kiwi Finn sailor debuts in the 2014 Star Sailors League Finals   
2014 Butler Cup - Shane Young wins match race regatta   
Adventures of a Sailor Girl: News and interviews from Nov 16 show *Feature   
2014 Melges 24 U.S. National Championship - Moon wind   
Australian 18ft Skiffs: 40kt winds cancel race but Witt sails + Video   
2014 Melges 24 US National Championship - Day 2 images by Joy Dunigan   
Volvo Ocean Race: Abu Dhabi are the Kings of Cape Town   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL WAS US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT