sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Sail-World.com : Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week - Day 4 forecast
Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week - Day 4 forecast

'Latest Analysis'    Kenn Batt

Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week - Day 4 forecast: Nil Warnings current at time of writing for this area.

Synoptic Discussion: A high currently centred over NSW and moving slowly east, is extending a weakening ridge along the Queensland coast.


Observations:

At 0600hr Hamilton Island was reporting the following conditions:

Wind 150deg at 19kn (ave) gusting to 22kn, Temp 17C, Pressure 1022hPa).

Forecast Winds for Middle of Pioneer Bay (Read Discussion below):

1000:MD140 DR(170-130) MS16 SR10-21kn
1200:MD125 DR(145-105) MS14 SR08-20kn
1400:MD120 DR(140-100) MS12 SR06-18kn
1600:MD100 DR(120-080) MS12 SR06-17kn
1800:MD090 DR(110-070) MS12 SR06-17kn

Note: Direction trending 10-30deg more left than forecast above closer to Pioneer Bay coast after about 1100hr.

Whitsunday Passage and Molle Channel: Wind speeds 2 to 5kn stronger in places at times than those above especially this morning, before easing during mid-late afternoon. Localised patchy winds possible early afternoon. Winds could be gusty and erratic around some headlands and in more constrained locations.

Note: First column is mean wind direction in deg Magnetic (MD). It is the 10min average (mean) value at a height of 10m above the water leading up to the hour quoted. The second column is the directional range (DR) of the wind direction in deg Mag. This takes into account the natural oscillation of the wind and is a function of the atmospheric stability, etc. The third column is the mean speed (MS) in knots (kn) and is the average 10min value leading up to the hour quoted at a height of 10m above the water. The last column is the wind speed range (SR) in knots and is the lowest wind speed to highest wind speed in the 10min leading up to forecast hour.

Discussion: Today will be a little complex to say the least. A line separating a stronger pressure gradient to the north from a weaker gradient to the south is expected to lie over the Whitsunday area. How quickly north this line moves will determine the strength of the winds today? My achy joints are saying that you should see a light-moderate W-SW land breeze inshore early this morning, being replaced quickly by a moderate, a little fresh at times, synoptic SE’er during the morning. The direction is then expected to trend left (or into the east) and ease??? during the afternoon. The wind could become quite patchy in places? A late morning 'glassout' to a sea breeze is possible in Pioneer Bay?

Forecast chart for 1600hr today -  Kenn Batt  

Other possibilities: 55% chance that wind speeds stay in the 12-16kn (ave) range from 150-120deg for your racing today, especially offshore and in Whitsundays?

40% chance that there is a 'glassout’ in Pioneer Bay later this morning followed by an E-NE sea breeze at 8-12kn (ave)?

Note: Wind will be lighter in the lee of any landmass and stronger and more gusty between islands (in channels and passages) and around some headlands.

Natural oscillations today around 15 to 25 deg away from effects of topography, tending 30 to 50 deg closer to the effects of any land mass (including islands and headlands).

Weather: Cool at first. Slight chance of an early light shower. A fine and mostly sunny day. Maximum land temperature at Airlie Beach: about 22 degrees.

Wind Waves: 0.8 to 2.0 metres. Less in lee of land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current and further offshore.

(Wave heights quoted are significant wave heights).

Tide at Shute Harbour: High of 2.51m at 0841hr, Low of 0.56m at 1429hr and High of 3.48m at 2106hr.

Tidal Stream: A good ebb this morning and early afternoon, becoming slack before a strong flood later this afternoon/evening. Be very careful particularly in passages, channels, close to islands, etc.

Remember: Tidal currents generally flood to the south and ebb to the north in the Whitsundays (with a multitude of local effects and eddies. So be prepared!).

Sea Temperature: about 19-20 degrees.

Outlook

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. SE at 8 to 14 kn (ave), tending E-NE during the late morning/afternoon. Could be a morning 'glassout' to a 8-12kn (ave) E-NE afternoon seabreeze.

Airlie Beach Race Week website


by Kenn Batt

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=100930

10:08 PM Mon 13 Aug 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2012 Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week Media Centre


Related News Stories:

15 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week day 5 - Flying
15 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week 2012 day 5 weather
14 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week - Teri Dodds Images
14 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week 2012 - Sports Boats
14 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week day 4 - Fresh and exhilarating
13 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week 2012: The Weather Gods are smiling
12 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week day 3 - A brilliant day in paradise
12 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week - Day 3 forecast
11 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week day 2 - Sailing in Paradise
11 Aug 2012  Telcoinabox Airlie Beach Race Week - Day 2 forecast
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World













HUD Vision: An interview with Afterguard Marine’s Alex Moret *Feature by David Schmidt, Sail-World USA Editor, Seattle














America's Cup: Expected de Ridder penalty should be reduced *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz, Auckland, NZ
















Congressional Cup - Victory for Taylor Canfield and crew by Rich Roberts (As Amended by ISAF),




2014 Halifax – Saint-Pierre Ocean Race by Patricia Nelder, Nova Scotia














Image Gallery: Stratis SL33 flies on the Waitemata by Richard Gladwell,Sail-world.com/nz,


Audi Melges 20- Sperry Topsider Charleston Race Week - Light final day by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,




ISAF Sailing World Cup Hyères - Crème of the crop to compete
Congressional Cup: Luna Rossa makes podium in first event
Int 14 World Championships 2015 launch new event website
International Optimist Regatta Clinic and Team Race - Register now!
Congressional Cup: World top rankers finish that way in Long Beach
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week Day 3 finale
America's Cup: Gino Morrelli outlines the new AC62 design
Doyle Sails New Zealand signs Andrew Brown as One Design Manager
America's Cup: Dean Barker's Blog - A sail with the Duke and Duchess *Feature
29er World Youth Sailing Week Easter regatta - Day 1 and 2 overall
C Thomas Clagett Jr Memorial Clinic/Regatta - Entries start to roll in
50th Congressional Cup: See the delayed coverage and media conferences
Clipper Race 10 Day 27: Closing stages - Qingdao to San Francisco
Canfield, Williams, Bruni, Swinton in Congressional Cup final four
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week - Day 2
Audi Melges 20 Charleston Race Week - Perfect conditions in Charleston
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Full on ocean conditions for day 3
PWA World Tour - A taste of things to come at La Torche + Video
Women's International Match Racing Series kicks off in June
Melges 32 Audi Tron Sailing Series - Action shots by Max Ranchi
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Frustrating conditions   
Man rescued after falling overboard in Pacific taken to hospital   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Youth leading Melges 20   
Congressional Cup - Canfield leads toward Congressional Cup sailoffs   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Perfection for Day 1   
America's Cup: Coutts claims ISAF Jury on a crusade, backs Kiwi report *Feature   
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Will light winds hamper progress?   
Les Voiles de St. Barth - Preparing to rock Saint Barthélemy waters   
Clipper Round the World Race - OneDLL and Qingdao now in San Francisco   
America's Cup: Emirates Team NZ up against funding hurdle for year *Feature   
Melges 32 Sailing Series Napoli - Day 1 images by Stefano Gattini   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   
Melges 32 Sailing Series - Napoli action shots by Max Ranchi   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica launch new boat   
Emirates Team NZ: Royals duke it out on the Waitemata   
2014 Charleston Race Week - Thousands of sailors descend on Charleston   
The Congressional Cup 2014 - Williams hangs on with a classy crowd   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   
RORC Transatlantic Race - Notice of Race now available   
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Sunshine and smiles on day 2   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
X6XL VIR US