Please select your home edition
Edition
PredictWind.com 2014

Rolex Sydney Hobart- Southerly change expected to hit at midnight

by Richard Gladwell on 28 Dec 2013
Loki battling the waves off Tasman Island - 2012 Rolex Sydney Hobart © Rolex/Daniel Forster http://www.regattanews.com

The long predicted southerly change for the 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart race is expected to hit all areas around 11.00pm Saturday night.

Until then the fleet will experience hard running conditions of 20-30kts from the north, slowly switching to the NW, before quickly clocking around to a south westerly direction.

With a race finish time of just after midnight, expected race winner, Wild Oats XI will be right on the edge of the change and may miss it. The other supermaxis will be crossing Storm Bay on the final approach to Hobart and will cop the first of the expected 30kts plus headwinds.

Others like the 50fters will be reaching down the eastern side of Tasmania, having crossed Bass Strait with the assistance of the push from the strong northerly. They should be OK until rounding Tasman Island at the entrance to Storm Bay - and there they will cop a pasting from winds expected to average 30-40kts with gusts substantially above that strength.

From there on to the finish the boats will be beating into the teeth of the westerly gale, maybe turning the race into a big boat benefit on rating as the smaller boats at the end of the fleet struggle in the survival conditions.

The sea state may not be as extreme as would be expected in Bass Strait, due to the shelter afforded by the Tasmanian landmass, however seas and westerly swell is still expected to be significant particularly rounding the tip of Tasman Island.

Wind maps from Flinders Island and Bass Strait from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The key points to look at in this set of wind maps from Predictwind is the strong NE flow to the right, favouring those who have stayed out to sea, inshore the winds lighten and also swing north - a less favourable point of sailing. At 8.00pm we can see the wind swing north and start to lighten and swing NW in advance of the coming south westerly front and wind change. At 11.00pm the wind is well into the west, for those inshore. By 2.00am and 5.00am the breeze is increasing in strength and settling into a W-SW direction at a speed of 35-40kts average (add 15kts on top of that for gusts). The boats should be tight reaching out of Bass Strait and along the Tasmanian manian coast in these conditions.







Wind maps from Tasman Island and Storm Bay from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The points to look at in this set of maps which show the conditions likely to be experienced by those at the head of the fleet. Again we can see the stronng N - NE breeze pushing the lead yachts up the Tasmanian coast. At 8.00pm Saturday we can see the change moving across Storm Bay, earlier than it occurred in Flinders Island and Bass Strait. At 11.00pm the wind is swinging from the NW to the West and still a relatively moderate 15-20kts average with the usual factor of about 10kts for the gusts. From 2.00am to 8.00am on Sunday morning the wind cracks in, and settles into the West at 35kts plus average with gusts on top of that of 15kts. Seas are likely to be rough as the boats turn around Tasman Island. The boats will be on the wind after rounding Tasman Island before turning and heading for the finish line in Hobart.






PredictWind.com 2014Predictwind - IridiumPredictWind.com

Related Articles

She’s still here with us, and now we can be there for her
Of the many endearing qualities in Lisa Blair, the one that is paramount is her effervescence. Of the many endearing qualities in Lisa Blair, the one that is paramount is her effervescence. Yet it is what lies behind that which could be her most incredible characteristic. Sometimes you can almost overlook her steely determination, but not for long when you start talking with her. Catching up with her live from Cape Town surely was a vivid reminder of not only what this sailor can accomplish
Posted on 24 Apr
Gladwell's Line - Timeout in Bermuda and a decision OTUSA will regret?
With Emirates Team New Zealand's AC50 now in Bermuda and being re-assembled, it is time to take a breath With Emirates Team New Zealand's AC50 now in Bermuda and being re-assembled, it is time to take a breath from what has been a hectic couple of months, both in Auckland and Bermuda. The third major Practice Session has concluded in Bermuda. This was conducted almost entirely if winds of around 16-25kts - starting to get close to the top end of the range for the AC50's.
Posted on 20 Apr
America's Cup - Glenn Ashby on hitting the AC50's sound barrier
These boats are incredible. The performance that can be achieved in light airs is the amazing thing. The big difference between the AC72, the America's Cup Class, used in the 2013 America's Cup in San Francisco and the smaller AC50 to be sailed in Bermuda, lies in their light and medium air performance. 'These boats are incredible. The performance that can be achieved in light airs is the amazing thing. In 7-8-9-10 knots of breeze, you are sailing at 30kts at times.
Posted on 18 Apr
America's Cup - Bernasconi on expected winning factors in Bermuda
ETNZ's Technical Director, Dan Bernasconi has let out a few clues as to where he thought the differences might lie Emirates Team NZ's Technical Director, Dan Bernasconi has let out a few clues as to where he thought the differences might lie once the six teams entered in the 35th America's Cup. 'We have had a great run', he says. 'We've had a few hiccups along the way, as always. But the boat is going really well. We are getting through manoeuvres very well. And we think our straight line speed is good.'
Posted on 18 Apr
A Q&A with Nicole Breault about women’s match racing in the USA
I caught up with Nicole Breault to learn more about women’s match racing in the USA and about her upcoming Clinegatta. I caught up with Nicole Breault to learn more about the state of women’s match racing in the USA, and to also hear more about her upcoming Clinegatta, which is set to unfurl on the waters of San Francisco Bay this July, and which could be a great resource for other talented female match racers who are looking to sharpen their skills.
Posted on 17 Apr
America's Cup - Team NZ return fire at Coutts' social media bullets
Emirates Team New Zealand have corrected the allegations made by America's Cup organisers Emirates Team NZ have corrected the allegations made by America's Cup organisers in a media release on Thursday (NZT) over the team's daggerboard use. In the release, replayed by America's Cup Events Authority and Oracle Team USA CEO Sir Russell Coutts on his Facebook page. It was claimed that the Kiwi team had an issue with daggerboards and were using a rule they had not supported to keep sailing
Posted on 2 Apr
A Q&A with Charles Pessler, the regatta director of the legendary STIR
I corresponded with Charles Pessler, STIR’s regatta director, to learn about the event’s recent changes and evolutions. I recently corresponded via email with Charles “Chuck” Pessler, who is serving as the regatta director of the legendary STIR, to learn more about the changes and evolutions that have taken place at the event since my 2010 trip to racing paradise.
Posted on 22 Mar
New Pacific 52 class makes its debut in San Francisco
The first of two new-build Pacific 52's from Auckland's Cookson Boats is now sailing in San Francisco. The first of two new-build Pacific 52's from Auckland's Cookson Boats is now sailing in San Francisco. Invisible Hand for San Francisco's Frank Slootman replaces his earlier RP63 of the same name. She will soon be joined by a second Cookson build, Bad Pack (Tom Holthus) from the same moulds. A third, RIO 52 is for RIO 100 supermaxi owner Manouch Moshayedi.
Posted on 18 Mar
A Q&A with Chris Woolsey, regatta chair of the Miami to Havana Race
I talked with Chris Woolsey, regatta chair of the Miami to Havana Race, to learn more about this exciting race to Cuba. The 2017 Miami to Havana Race is set to begin on March 15 and promises high adventure-both sailing-related and cultural-for the sailors lucky enough to be participating in this historical-and for now legal-race. I talked with Chris Woolsey, regatta chair of the Miami to Havana Race and SORC race chairman, to learn more about this exciting race to Cuba.
Posted on 13 Mar
Gladwell's Line - Of Carnage, Characters and Colour
About this time of an America's Cup season, the sap begins rising as new boats are launched About this time of an America's Cup season, the sap begins rising as new boats are launched, and Cup fans get their first sight of the various team designers' response to the latest America's Cup Class rule. In the monohull days, of course, we initially only got a partial glimpse thanks to the shrouding practices adopted by all teams to hide the nether regions of their America's Cupper
Posted on 13 Mar