Please select your home edition
Edition
PredictWind.com 2014

Rolex Sydney Hobart- Southerly change expected to hit at midnight

by Richard Gladwell on 28 Dec 2013
Loki battling the waves off Tasman Island - 2012 Rolex Sydney Hobart © Rolex/Daniel Forster http://www.regattanews.com

The long predicted southerly change for the 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart race is expected to hit all areas around 11.00pm Saturday night.

Until then the fleet will experience hard running conditions of 20-30kts from the north, slowly switching to the NW, before quickly clocking around to a south westerly direction.

With a race finish time of just after midnight, expected race winner, Wild Oats XI will be right on the edge of the change and may miss it. The other supermaxis will be crossing Storm Bay on the final approach to Hobart and will cop the first of the expected 30kts plus headwinds.

Others like the 50fters will be reaching down the eastern side of Tasmania, having crossed Bass Strait with the assistance of the push from the strong northerly. They should be OK until rounding Tasman Island at the entrance to Storm Bay - and there they will cop a pasting from winds expected to average 30-40kts with gusts substantially above that strength.

From there on to the finish the boats will be beating into the teeth of the westerly gale, maybe turning the race into a big boat benefit on rating as the smaller boats at the end of the fleet struggle in the survival conditions.

The sea state may not be as extreme as would be expected in Bass Strait, due to the shelter afforded by the Tasmanian landmass, however seas and westerly swell is still expected to be significant particularly rounding the tip of Tasman Island.

Wind maps from Flinders Island and Bass Strait from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The key points to look at in this set of wind maps from Predictwind is the strong NE flow to the right, favouring those who have stayed out to sea, inshore the winds lighten and also swing north - a less favourable point of sailing. At 8.00pm we can see the wind swing north and start to lighten and swing NW in advance of the coming south westerly front and wind change. At 11.00pm the wind is well into the west, for those inshore. By 2.00am and 5.00am the breeze is increasing in strength and settling into a W-SW direction at a speed of 35-40kts average (add 15kts on top of that for gusts). The boats should be tight reaching out of Bass Strait and along the Tasmanian manian coast in these conditions.







Wind maps from Tasman Island and Storm Bay from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The points to look at in this set of maps which show the conditions likely to be experienced by those at the head of the fleet. Again we can see the stronng N - NE breeze pushing the lead yachts up the Tasmanian coast. At 8.00pm Saturday we can see the change moving across Storm Bay, earlier than it occurred in Flinders Island and Bass Strait. At 11.00pm the wind is swinging from the NW to the West and still a relatively moderate 15-20kts average with the usual factor of about 10kts for the gusts. From 2.00am to 8.00am on Sunday morning the wind cracks in, and settles into the West at 35kts plus average with gusts on top of that of 15kts. Seas are likely to be rough as the boats turn around Tasman Island. The boats will be on the wind after rounding Tasman Island before turning and heading for the finish line in Hobart.






PredictWind.comPredictwind - IridiumPredictWind.com 2014

Related Articles

A Q&A with Dick Neville, Quantum Key West Race Week’s RC chairman
I caught up with Dick Neville, Race Committee chair for the Quantum Key West Race Week, to learn more about the event. For the past 30 years, international sailors have gathered in Key West, Florida, each January for Key West Race Week, a regatta that has achieved legendary status due to its calendar dates, its location, and the impressive level of competition and racecourse management that this storied event offers. I caught up with Dick Neville, Race Committee chair for this year’s Quantum KWRW, to learn more.
Posted on 16 Jan
A Q&A with Daniel Smith, the Clipper Race’s new deputy race director
I talked with Daniel Smith, the Clipper Round The World Race’s new deputy race director, to learn more about his role. I was fortunate to sail with Daniel Smith [36, SCO], skipper of “Derry~Londonderry~Doire” for the 2015/2016 edition of the Clipper Round The World Race, when the fleet reached Seattle last spring. Now, Smith has been hired as the event’s deputy race director-a job that will test many of the skills that he polished as a skipper. I caught up with Smith via email to learn more about his new job.
Posted on 9 Jan
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Suck it up, sunshine!
The 72nd start of the iconic blue water classic had 300,000 spectators lining the foreshores of Sydney Harbour The 72nd start of the iconic blue water classic had 300,000 spectators lining the foreshores of Sydney Harbour, another two million watching on TV, and the constant buzz and whir of media helicopters overhead. 88 boats, from Australia, USA, UK, Germany, Sweden, Russia, Japan, Korea, China, oh and New Zealand, had lined up on three start lines.
Posted on 31 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - More merriment on the airwaves
Here are more examples of merriment on the airwaves between the boats and Hobart Race Control So on December 29, 2016, after the River Derwent had let just three boats home (Perpetual Loyal, Giacomo and Scallywag, all inside the old race record, she went to sleep for a lot of the day. This made it frustrating for the sailors, some of whom saw the lighter side. So after seeing some of those in Dark & Stormy, here are more examples of merriment on the airwaves between the boats and HRC
Posted on 29 Dec 2016
Sydney Hobart Race-Dark and stormy, well because it is Dark and Stormy
Proving that there is a lighter side to the frustrations that is a race to Hobart Well it is now dark and the rain 'storms' have passed, but proving that there is a lighter side to the frustrations that is a race to Hobart, the custom Murray 37, Dark & Stormy had a wonderful exchange on the radio. Quite possibly it was co-owner and Navigator Terry Courts on the VHF in the super-frank exchange with Hobart Race Control at around 1928hrs on 29/12/16.
Posted on 29 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - Wicked
ather and Son outfit, Wicked, are Matt and Mark Welsh from Melbourne. Matt is at home on the couch after knee surgery Father and Son outfit, Wicked, are Matt and Mark Welsh from Melbourne. Matt is at home on the couch after knee surgery, but Mark is out on the water, approaching Hobart. From on board he said, 'Amazing race. Barely any windward work. Just does not get better than this. Bit of gear damage cost us early, and we had to sail a little conservatively.'
Posted on 29 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - Accepting the Challenge
When you buy a boat like the late Lou Abrahma's Sydney 38, Challenge, you're almost obliged to keep taking her South When you buy a boat like the late Lou Abrahma's Sydney 38, Challenge, you're almost obliged to keep taking her South at Christmas time. Luckily this has not been a problem for Chris Mrakas and his new crew, which includes Bruce Reidy
Posted on 29 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – 67 out of 70
It's a pretty awesome score in anybody’s language. When it is the number of hours you spend under kite It's a pretty awesome score in anybody’s language. When it is the number of hours you spend under kite in the 72nd Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race so far, then it is more than A+++. Anto Sweetapple from on board the Jones 40, Quetzalcoatl, reports in from at sea for us.
Posted on 29 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart 2016 - The 60 Hour report card
60 hours into the 72nd Rolex Sydney Hobart race. 16 boats finished,five boats retired and 67 boats at sea. The state of play 60 hours into the 72nd running of the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race. At 0100hrs Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time this morning, 16 boats had finished the 2016 race. Five boats had retired, and 67 boats were still on the water.
Posted on 28 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – the second step for CQS and 2017
It was a frustrating end to a frustrating race for the newest supermaxi in the 2016 Rolex Sydney to Hobart race It was a frustrating end to a frustrating race for the newest supermaxi to compete in the 2016 Rolex Sydney to Hobart race. It was just her second ever race, with her first, the White Island Race in New Zealand, producing a line honours win. While Ludde Ingvall’s radical new 98-footer CQS had a very slow passage across an almost windless Storm Bay and River Derwent.
Posted on 28 Dec 2016