sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight


'Loki battling the waves off Tasman Island - 2012 Rolex Sydney Hobart'    © Rolex/Daniel Forster

The long predicted southerly change for the 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart race is expected to hit all areas around 11.00pm Saturday night.

Until then the fleet will experience hard running conditions of 20-30kts from the north, slowly switching to the NW, before quickly clocking around to a south westerly direction.

With a race finish time of just after midnight, expected race winner, Wild Oats XI will be right on the edge of the change and may miss it. The other supermaxis will be crossing Storm Bay on the final approach to Hobart and will cop the first of the expected 30kts plus headwinds.

Others like the 50fters will be reaching down the eastern side of Tasmania, having crossed Bass Strait with the assistance of the push from the strong northerly. They should be OK until rounding Tasman Island at the entrance to Storm Bay - and there they will cop a pasting from winds expected to average 30-40kts with gusts substantially above that strength.

From there on to the finish the boats will be beating into the teeth of the westerly gale, maybe turning the race into a big boat benefit on rating as the smaller boats at the end of the fleet struggle in the survival conditions.

The sea state may not be as extreme as would be expected in Bass Strait, due to the shelter afforded by the Tasmanian landmass, however seas and westerly swell is still expected to be significant particularly rounding the tip of Tasman Island.

Wind maps from Flinders Island and Bass Strait from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The key points to look at in this set of wind maps from Predictwind is the strong NE flow to the right, favouring those who have stayed out to sea, inshore the winds lighten and also swing north - a less favourable point of sailing. At 8.00pm we can see the wind swing north and start to lighten and swing NW in advance of the coming south westerly front and wind change. At 11.00pm the wind is well into the west, for those inshore. By 2.00am and 5.00am the breeze is increasing in strength and settling into a W-SW direction at a speed of 35-40kts average (add 15kts on top of that for gusts). The boats should be tight reaching out of Bass Strait and along the Tasmanian manian coast in these conditions.

1700hrs Saturday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

2000hrs Saturday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

2300hrs Saturday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

0200hrs Sunday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

0500hrs Sunday - Flinders Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo


Wind maps from Tasman Island and Storm Bay from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The points to look at in this set of maps which show the conditions likely to be experienced by those at the head of the fleet. Again we can see the stronng N - NE breeze pushing the lead yachts up the Tasmanian coast. At 8.00pm Saturday we can see the change moving across Storm Bay, earlier than it occurred in Flinders Island and Bass Strait. At 11.00pm the wind is swinging from the NW to the West and still a relatively moderate 15-20kts average with the usual factor of about 10kts for the gusts. From 2.00am to 8.00am on Sunday morning the wind cracks in, and settles into the West at 35kts plus average with gusts on top of that of 15kts. Seas are likely to be rough as the boats turn around Tasman Island. The boats will be on the wind after rounding Tasman Island before turning and heading for the finish line in Hobart.

Saturday 1700hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Saturday 2000hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Saturday 2300hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Sunday 0200hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Sunday 0500hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo

Sunday 0800hrs - Tasman Island, 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race -  PredictWind.com   Click Here to view large photo


by Richard Gladwell

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=117934

12:32 AM Sat 28 Dec 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race

Related News Stories:

28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Seven wins puts Wild Oats into Seventh Heaven
28 Dec 2013  Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Tensions reach boiling point
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Wild Oats XI finishes in Hobart to take win
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart - Wild Oats XI turns for home
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart 2013 - Now to Real Race -Handicap wide open
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Getting ready for the Big Bash
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Progress for the Tassie trio
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Closing in on the Tasmanian coast
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney to Hobart – Forty Hours into the race
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart Race 2013 - Of Gates, Pools and Level Crossings
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World





















Audi Melges 20 U.S. Nationals - Oleander takes early lead by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,






2014 Detroit Cup - Sam Gilmour leads by Dobbs Davis, Detroit, Michigan








Audi Hamilton Island Race Week: Riding the AC45 - VIDEO by Crosbie Lorimer, Hamilton Island










America's Cup: Five Challengers sign-on for 35th Match by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz,


Volvo Ocean Race CEO Knut Frostad talks Time and Money (Part II) *Feature by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World team,


















AWT Quatro Desert Showdown at Punta San Carlos by American Windsurfing Tour,


SAP 505 World Championship - Holt and Woelfel on top
2014 IFDS Disabled Sailing World Championship - Day 2
Audi Hamilton Island Race Week; MC38s Lindeman Island Race VIDEO
2014 Audi Melges 20 U.S. National Championship - Ready to rock
IFDS Worlds - Wind delays, but racing continues in Halifax
IFDS World Championships - Day 2 images by Jude Robertson
MS Cup - Three days until the start
America's Cup: Rod Davis - Time for a change after ten years with team *Feature
ISAF seeking hosting bids for Nations Cup
Laser 4.7 Youth Worlds - Luvisetto and Alexadr Boite victorious +Video
IFDS World Championships - Action shots by Tim Wilkes
Maxi yacht rendezvous this September in Sardinia
World Yacht Racing Forum 2014: 'Growing the business of Yacht Racing'
Clipper Race: 2015-16 edition of world's longest ocean race 70% full
Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland - Swish smash 5th World Record
Leaderboards take shape at the Nanjing Youth Olympic Games 2014
IFDS Worlds - Hot competition on first day of racing
Challenging Conditions - CORK OCR
IFDS World Championship - Day 1 for the US Sailing Team
2014 Melges 20 World Championship - Countdown begins
2014 Nanjing Youth Olympic Games - Day 3   
America's Cup: Team NZ wish Davis well with new team *Feature   
Fisher's View: Sailing perfection at Hamilton Island- Day 3   
Roble and Wilson still number one match racers in the U.S.   
2014 Formula Kite World Championship Day 1   
IFDS World Championship - Day 1 images by Jude Robertson   
Volvo Ocean Race: Forget the f-word - Team SCA profiled   
52 Super Series - Fleet grows, 2015 dates revealed   
420 and 470 Junior Europeans - Teams from 9 nations on the podium   
IFDS Worlds - Former president presented with ISAF awards medal   
Nanjing Youth Olympic Games - Improvements aplenty in Byte CII fleets   
America's Cup: New Zealand loses top coach to Artemis Racing   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 CEO Knut Frostad talks (Part I) *Feature   
Sevenstar Round Britain and Ireland Race Day 9 - Swish on record pace   
2014 CORK Olympic Classes Regatta - Day 3   
2014 Nanjing Youth Olympic Games - Day 2   
2014 IFDS World Championship: Opening Ceremony images   
Opera House Cup - Images by Ingrid Abery   
Teams descend upon Cowes for inaugural J/111 World Championships   
Hamilton Island Race Week: Everywhere there's smiley people   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL WAS US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT