Please select your home edition
Edition
Naiad/Oracle Supplier

Rolex Sydney Hobart- Southerly change expected to hit at midnight

by Richard Gladwell on 28 Dec 2013
Loki battling the waves off Tasman Island - 2012 Rolex Sydney Hobart © Rolex/Daniel Forster http://www.regattanews.com

The long predicted southerly change for the 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart race is expected to hit all areas around 11.00pm Saturday night.

Until then the fleet will experience hard running conditions of 20-30kts from the north, slowly switching to the NW, before quickly clocking around to a south westerly direction.

With a race finish time of just after midnight, expected race winner, Wild Oats XI will be right on the edge of the change and may miss it. The other supermaxis will be crossing Storm Bay on the final approach to Hobart and will cop the first of the expected 30kts plus headwinds.

Others like the 50fters will be reaching down the eastern side of Tasmania, having crossed Bass Strait with the assistance of the push from the strong northerly. They should be OK until rounding Tasman Island at the entrance to Storm Bay - and there they will cop a pasting from winds expected to average 30-40kts with gusts substantially above that strength.

From there on to the finish the boats will be beating into the teeth of the westerly gale, maybe turning the race into a big boat benefit on rating as the smaller boats at the end of the fleet struggle in the survival conditions.

The sea state may not be as extreme as would be expected in Bass Strait, due to the shelter afforded by the Tasmanian landmass, however seas and westerly swell is still expected to be significant particularly rounding the tip of Tasman Island.

Wind maps from Flinders Island and Bass Strait from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The key points to look at in this set of wind maps from Predictwind is the strong NE flow to the right, favouring those who have stayed out to sea, inshore the winds lighten and also swing north - a less favourable point of sailing. At 8.00pm we can see the wind swing north and start to lighten and swing NW in advance of the coming south westerly front and wind change. At 11.00pm the wind is well into the west, for those inshore. By 2.00am and 5.00am the breeze is increasing in strength and settling into a W-SW direction at a speed of 35-40kts average (add 15kts on top of that for gusts). The boats should be tight reaching out of Bass Strait and along the Tasmanian manian coast in these conditions.







Wind maps from Tasman Island and Storm Bay from 5.00pm Saturday through to Sunday morning - the key to the wind strength is the colour bar at the top of the Predictwind developed charts.

The points to look at in this set of maps which show the conditions likely to be experienced by those at the head of the fleet. Again we can see the stronng N - NE breeze pushing the lead yachts up the Tasmanian coast. At 8.00pm Saturday we can see the change moving across Storm Bay, earlier than it occurred in Flinders Island and Bass Strait. At 11.00pm the wind is swinging from the NW to the West and still a relatively moderate 15-20kts average with the usual factor of about 10kts for the gusts. From 2.00am to 8.00am on Sunday morning the wind cracks in, and settles into the West at 35kts plus average with gusts on top of that of 15kts. Seas are likely to be rough as the boats turn around Tasman Island. The boats will be on the wind after rounding Tasman Island before turning and heading for the finish line in Hobart.






Naiad/Oracle SupplierBarz Optics - San Juan Worlds Best EyewearBakewell-White Yacht Design

Related Articles

Predictwind's Offshore App supports Redport Optimiser - get a deal now
Predictwind have negotiated a 20% discount on the Optimizer and XGate for all PredictWind customers. Predictwind's Offshore App now supports the RedPort Optimizer. For the next seven days Predictwind have negotiated a 20% discount on the Optimizer and XGate for all PredictWind customers.
Posted on 10 Apr
PredictWind Offshore App integrated with Redport Optimizer and XGate
PredictWind has just released the latest version of their Award winning Offshore app PredictWind, the world leader in weather forecasting, has just released the latest version of their Award winning Offshore app, which now allows a direct connection with the Redport Optimizer and XGate suite of satellite data services.
Posted on 10 Apr
Predictwind - A Christmas present for the Sydney Hobart - Updated
Latest from Predictwind (0900hrs on Christmas morning) is that the front should be reduced in duration Latest for the weather trolls from Predictwind (0900hrs on Christmas morning) is that the front should be reduced in duration from about 2300hrs on Dec 26 and will be through about 0900 on Dec 28, and will peak at 31kts average but mostly in the 27kt average.
Posted on 25 Dec 2015
Team SCA and Vestas Wind cross the fleet on Leg 8 - Volvo Ocean race
Team SCA has crossed ahead of the chasing fleet at the latest sked at 0030hrs UTC on June 10. Team SCA has crossed ahead of the chasing fleet at the latest sked at 0030hrs UTC on June 10. According to the Predictwind routing, showing the optimum route to finish, the womens crew have about 20 hours to sail to the finish in Lorient, assuming race organizers do not extend the course.
Posted on 10 Jun 2015
Team SCA holds reduced lead after Coast of Death in Volvo Ocean Race
The womens crew of Team SCA have held their lead as the fleet sails across the Bay of Biscay in winds of 28kts. The womens crew of Team SCA have held their lead as the fleet sails across the Bay of Biscay in winds of 28kts. The westerly group of the fleet have now tacked onto port with Team SCA leading Vestas Wind followed by Team Alvimedica and Dong Feng at the 1843UTC Sked on June 9, 2015.
Posted on 10 Jun 2015
Team SCA looks to score massive upset in the Volvo Ocean Race
The womens crew of Team SCA are just 36 hours from scoring a massive upset in the Volvo Ocean Race The womens crew of Team SCA are just 36 hours from scoring a massive upset in the Volvo Ocean Race, and turning in perhaps the most significant result in the history of womens involvement in sailing. At the 0640UTC position report, the two boats with the least to lose on the leaderboard, Team SCA and the resurrected Team Vestas Wind are first and second on the water as the fleet enter Biscay
Posted on 9 Jun 2015
Team SCA takes coastal route to pick up big lead in Volvo Ocean Race
The inshore and offshore groups have closed together on Leg 8 of the Volvo Ocean Race. The inshore and offshore groups have closed together on Leg 8 of the Volvo Ocean race. At the 0944UTC sked on June 8, 2015, the girls crew aboard Team SCA had earned a lead of over 5nm, based on the time to reach a point just in the Bay of Biscay.
Posted on 8 Jun 2015
Volvo Ocean Race fleet splits ahead of Bay of Biscay gale
The Volvo OR fleet has split into two groups ahead of gale force winds expected to hit on the morning of June 9 UTC. The seven boat Volvo Ocean Race fleet has split into two groups ahead of gale force winds expected to hit on the morning of Jun 9 UTC. An inshore group led by Team Vestas Wind will be first to hit the winds expected to average 30kts, but likely to be gusting close to 40kts.
Posted on 8 Jun 2015
Volvo Ocean Race- Wislang expected to lead Kiwis home after fast ride
Abu Dhabi's Daryl Wislang looks like being the first in the queue at the piecart, when the boats arrive on Saturday Latest predictions for the finish of Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race are all indicating a finish time between 1000hrs and 1400hrs on Saturday February 28. For one of only three Kiwi crew members in the Volvo Ocean Race, Abu Dhabi's Daryl Wislang looks like being the first in the queue at the piecart, when the boats reach Auckland.
Posted on 24 Feb 2015
Volvo Ocean Race- Leg 4 Winner expected in Auckland on Saturday
Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race is expected to finish in Auckland on Saturday morning/afternoon Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race is expected to finish in Auckland on Saturday morning/afternoon. According to the latest projections from the routing function of Predictwind the lead boats will finish around the middle of the day - being late morning of early to mid-afternoon.
Posted on 23 Feb 2015