sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south
Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south

'The Signal Station on Mt Victoria, Devonport looks out into the murk of Cyclone Lusi, Auckland, March 15, 2014'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Tropical Cyclone Lusi hit New Zealand, on late Friday night bringing strong winds and rain to the top half of the North Island. As of Sunday morning the storm is moving south and losing intensity.

Winds gusting to 65kts were recorded at Tiritiri Island in the Hauraki Gulf late yesterday afternoon and over 50kts at Bean Rock at the entrance to the Waitemata harbour.

Now the winds have eased in Auckland, and swung north. The rain is also expected to clear by early Sunday afternoon.

Sail-World started tracking the storm at 2200hrs on Thursday night - see two earlier stories and maps. This latest update is at 1000hrs on Sunday. The times of the shots of the storm can be read alongside each image.

For the Wellington and Christchurch areas, Wellington will escape most of the effects but with some heavy rain forecast late Sunday night.

Christchurch will be harder hit with predictions varying, indicating the path of the storm and rain is unpredictable at present.

Winds are on the rise in Christchurch, but the rain is not really expected to hit until late Sunday afternoon.

By Monday morning the low pressure area will have disappeared off the bottom of the South island and is expected to dissipate.

Isobars and Storm path - 1000hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Isobars and Storm path - 1600hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Isobars and Storm path - 2200hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The first three Isobar images show the progress and expected track of the low pressure area from the Pacific at 1000hrs on Sunday morning and through the rest of Sunday. the storm is gone by Monday.

Predictwind produces two weather predictions based on two independent feeds and then applies various adjustments to take account of a variety of factors including land mass and topography.

As can be seen above, Cyclone Lusi has stayed intact passing over the top of the North Island and will spin out into the Tasman Sea before coming back over the middle of the South Island. Predictwind does take account of topographical features when making its forecasts - which indicates the rainfall in the South Island will be as expected and will have taken the Southern Alps into consideration.

In this Forecast Table from Predictwind.com we are showing the Forecast at Bean Rock, Wellington and Christchurch.

The Forecast table is a composite of all the weather data - showing wind strength (average and gust) and direction from two international feeds enhanced by Predictwind to take account of local features and a number of other factors. For a fuller explanation of how PredictWind enhances its feeds to provide a detailed local forecast click here

Two wind feeds are shown, when the numbers for both are similar, the prognosis has a high degree of certainty, when there is disparity, there is more uncertainty about the forecast.

Also shown is the cloud cover (expressed in a % of cover) and expected rainfall.

Forecast Table - Auckland - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Forecast Table - Wellington - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Forecast Table - Christchurch - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The third graphic shows the real time weather observation points around the Auckland and Christchurch as well as Wellington., these points are used to track the actual wind strength and direction.

Actual readings from Auckland (Bean Rock) and Christchurch (Brighton Pier). The arrows on the map, show the wind direction and the colour indicates wind strength.

Observations - Auckland 0930hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Observations - Christchurch 0930hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The fourth set of graphics shows the advance of the rain, which is clearing from Auckland, and is advancing on Christchurch and the South Island, with Wellington expected to escape the worst of the storm due to the fact that it swung out over the Tasman Sea, before coming back over NZ through the centre of the South Island.

Rain 1300hrs Upper North Island - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain prediction - Christchurch 1600hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain prediction - Wellington 2200hrs - Cyclone Lusi, March 16, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


This is expected to the last update, but Sail-World will continue to monitor the situation and will update if required.

Predictwind has a couple of great mobile phone apps for Android and iPhone – you can download these and track the storm and observations at your leisure. Dramatic weather events such as Cyclone Lusi are a great opportunity to learn the behavior of weather systems and to upskill your ability to develop your understanding of the weather and how it can affect you – so that you have peace of mind, or develop contingency plans.

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.


by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz


  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=120148

11:34 PM Sat 15 Mar 2014GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.


Related News Stories:

15 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3: 60kts in Hauraki Gulf
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi as she hits New Zealand
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
03 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup Melbourne: Lighter breezes for Day 2
02 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne: Fresh breeze, flat water for Day 1
22 Oct 2013  Predictwind: Beat them in a Nor-Wester - 2013 PIC Coastal Classic
25 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh breeze for Final Day 15
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh to strong breeze for Day 14
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Lighter winds initially for Day 13
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World









470 Men and Women Worlds - Champions decided in Santander by International 470 Class Association,
















































Big Boat Series - It's not the size, it's the length by Erik Simonson, Pressure-Drop.US,










ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio 2016 470 spots awarded
52 Super Series 2015 - Outlook looks hot for the 52 Super Series
Starboard Hatteras Wave Jam - Another early start on day 4
ISAF Sailing World - First entry leaves sailor's reputation in tatters
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Four go through to quarter finals
470 Men and Women Worlds - Champs take over leaderboard
ISAF Sailing World Champ - Buckingham finishes with career-best result
America's Cup: Oracle's Larry Ellison to step down as CEO
Classic Yacht Regatta - Sonny takes top classic prize
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Buckingham finishes with career best
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Rio 2016 RS:X spots claimed
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Leaderboards shaping up in Santander + Video
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Giles Scott continues to extend lead
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Day 7 images by Sailing Energy
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Laser and Radial winner images by Jesus Renedo
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Medal Race images by Sail-World.com
ISAF Sailing Worlds - Dutch dominate Laser and Radial in Santander
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing more than doubles overall lead
J/24 World Championship - Excitement builds for Newport racing
Volvo Ocean Race - Seb Marsset joins Team Alvimedica
Fall Seamanship training opportunities at New York Yacht Club   
Rolex Big Boat Series: More images from San Francisco - Final Day   
AWT Hatteras Wave Jam action commences on day 3   
Rolex Big Boat Series: Images from San Francisco - Final Day   
ISAF Sailing World Championships - Watch medal races live here   
Hobie 16 Open North American Championships and Pan Am Games qualifier   
ISAF Sailing World Championship - Videos from Santander   
ISAF Sailing Worlds: Buckingham into Medal Race, 470's stay consistent   
470 Men and Women Worlds - Vadlau and Ogar into pole position   
2014 Chicago Match Cup - Defending champion on top   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Strong competition for RS:X fleets   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Big breeze on day 6 + Video   
ISAF Sailing Worlds, Santander - Buckingham into Laser Medal Race   
U.S. Multihull Championship - Hobie Alter Trophy to be decided   
ISAF Sailing Worlds - The kind of form most sailors only dream about   
Royal Cup Marina Ibiza - Quantum Racing ahead of target   
ISAF Worlds Santander - 19 Rio 2016 Laser Radial spots awarded   
Santander 2014 ISAF Worlds - 21 broadcasters to take live coverage   
Rolex Swan Cup - Looking forward to the next 30 years   
America’s Cup: The Future is foiling – AC45s to be modified   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT