sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3: 60kts in Hauraki Gulf
Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3: 60kts in Hauraki Gulf

'The luxury yacht, A, obscured by the cyclonic murk as she shelters from the wind and rain Cyclone Lusi in Auckland on saturday morning'    © Richard Gladwell    Click Here to view large photo

Tropical Cyclone Lusi hit New Zealand, on late Friday night bringing strong winds and rain to the top half of the North Island.

Winds gusting to 60kts have been recorded at several points on the eastern coast including Cape Reinga, Channel Island and Tiritiri Island in the Hauraki Gulf.

Auckland appears to have been spared the worst of the onslaught, with Rangitoto Island providing some protection.

Sail-World started tracking the storm at 2200hrs on Thursday night - see two earlier stories and maps. This latest update is at 1000hrs on Saturday. The times of the shots of the storm can be read alongside each image.

A disturbing feature of the latest predictions is that the middle of the South Island and already flooded Christchurch, will be hit with heavy rains, when the city had been previously expected to avoid the heavy rainfall.

Rain from the cyclone is expected to hit about 4.00am on Sunday.

By Monday morning the low pressure area will have disappeared off the bottom of the South island and is expected to dissipate.

The first three Isobar images show the progress and expected track of the low pressure area from the Pacific at 1000hrs on Saturday night, and again 12 hours later on Saturday night, and some from Sunday.

Isobar map 1000hrs March 14, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobar map - Saturday March 15, 2014 2200hrs - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobar map - Sunday 1000 - PredictWind March 16, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Isobar map Sunday 2200hrs - PredictWind March 16, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Predictwind produces two weather predictions based on two independent feeds and then applies various adjustments to take account of a variety of factors including land mass and topography. For a fuller explanation of how PredictWind enhances its feeds to provide a detailed local forecast click here

As can be seen above, Cyclone Lusi has stayed intact passing over the top of the North Island and will spin out into the Tasman Sea before coming back over the middle of the South Island. Predictwind does take account of topographical features when making its forecasts - which indicates the rainfall in the South Island will be as expected and will have taken the Southern Alps into consideration.

In this Forecast Table from Predictwind.com we are just showing the Forecast at Bean Rock, which indicates the winds staying strong into Sunday.

Winds did hit the predicted strengths in gusts and at the correct time 0700-0900hrs on Saturday morning. They are how expected to ease a little.

In both the feeds used by Predictwind, the prognoses are very similar, indicating that there is a high degree of confidence between the models as to the predicted outcomes.

Forecast table - Bean Rock, Auckland from 1000hrs on Saturday morning - PredictWind March 14-15, 2014 -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The third graphic shows the real time weather observation points around the North Island, these points are used to track the actual wind strength and direction, as the cyclone moves south and can be compared to the history of wind strength and direction from more northern points such as Cape Reinga and the Hauraki Gulf.

Real time readings as at 1000hrs saturday March 15, 2014 Tiritiri Island showing average, direction and gust with the trend over 48hrs March 14-15, 2014 - Cyclone Lusi, -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


The fourth set of graphics shows the advance of the rain, which will be heavy but is not expect to last that long, but will be replaced with strong winds. The rain has largely passed in Auckland, but will remain in the Coromandel and move into the eastern Bay of Plenty.

The point of concern is now with Christchurch and catchment areas to the west on the slopes of the Southern Alps.

Rain map - Saturday March 15, 1000hrs - Auckland - PredictWind Cyclone Lusi -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain map - Saturday March 15, 1600hrs - Auckland - PredictWind Cyclone Lusi -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain map - Sunday March 16, 1000hrs - Auckland - PredictWind Cyclone Lusi -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain map - Sunday March 16, 0400hrs - Christchurch - PredictWind Cyclone Lusi -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain map - Sunday March 16, 1000hrs - Christchurch - PredictWind Cyclone Lusi -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo

Rain map - Sunday March 16, 1600hrs - Christchurch - PredictWind Cyclone Lusi -  PredictWind   Click Here to view large photo


Stay tuned for further updates

Sail-World will update these forecasts and charts as the storm nears and passes over New Zealand reflecting any updates and changes in Predictwind's weather feeds, and the actual data being recorded.

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.


by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz


  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=120131

12:21 AM Sat 15 Mar 2014GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.


Related News Stories:

16 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 4: Storm swings south
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 2: Storm due late Friday
14 Mar 2014  Predictwind: Tracking Cyclone Lusi as she hits New Zealand
28 Dec 2013  Rolex Sydney Hobart: Southerly change expected to hit at midnight
03 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup Melbourne: Lighter breezes for Day 2
02 Dec 2013  ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne: Fresh breeze, flat water for Day 1
22 Oct 2013  Predictwind: Beat them in a Nor-Wester - 2013 PIC Coastal Classic
25 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh breeze for Final Day 15
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Fresh to strong breeze for Day 14
24 Sep 2013  America's Cup: Predictwind - Lighter winds initially for Day 13
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World







Express 27 National Championship overall + Video by Erik Simonson, Pressure-Drop.US,














America's Cup: Louis Vuitton Cup's Yves Carcelle dies at 66 *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz,












Audi Melges 20 World Championship - ‘Samba Pa Ti’ crowned champion by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,










Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Final race to decide champion by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,










Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show - 13 things to See and do by Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show,




Volvo Ocean Race: Update from Team Vestas Wind in images by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz,








Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Classic Garda conditions on day 2 by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,


PWA Alacati World Cup - Intense competition on day 3
America's Cup: 'The Doc' appointed as Commercial Commissioner
Wake Park Triple Crown - Registration open for final stop
Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Day 2 images by Stefano Gattini
Volvo Ocean Race - Two more join Dongfeng Race Team
OHPRI Teen Summer Camps make a splash
East to West: A profile of Volvo Ocean Race crew Team Dongfeng
Extreme Sailing Series - First-ever Turkish team to race in Istanbul
Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Race 4 images by Max Ranchi
New Around Britain and Ireland Monohull 40ft and less world record
Detroit Cup - Fifth place finish a difficult result for Neptune Racing
Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Alessandro Rombelli's 'STIG' leads
Volvo Ocean Race: Call of Duty comes first for Team Alvimedica
Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Day 1 images by Stefano Gattini
Helping boaters understand weather basics
PWA Alacati World Cup - Exciting finish on day 2
Match 40s find the surface again + Video
Audi Melges 20 World Championship - Day 1 images by Max Ranchi
Clagett Regatta names first Executive Director
Transatlantic Race - Fleet expanded for 2015 edition
IFDS World Championship overall   
Anna Tunnicliffe: Alinghi finishes second - Extreme Sailing Series   
2014 18' Skiff International Regatta - Day 2   
2014 Audi Melges 20 World Championship - It's go time in Garda   
2nd Annual Keith Dinsmoor Regatta September 13-14   
Aldo Alessio Regatta - Three days of tight racing   
PWA Alacati World Cup - First blood to Van Der Steen and Offringa   
Oakcliff Sailing hosts the Nacra 17, 49er and 49erFX Nationals + Video   
International 18ft Skiff Regatta underway on San Francisco Bay   
Maxi Yacht Rolex Cup 2014 - Quality fleet for Maxi Classic   
Sailing Champions League - which is Europe's best sailing club?   
Weta fun at the Wine & Roses Regatta   
Extreme Sailing Series: The Wave, Muscat claims victory on Cardiff Bay   
International 14 World Championships 2015: Not just for boys   
Rio de Janeiro achieves 50% treatment of sewage outflow *Feature   
2014 AWT Quatro Desert Showdown - Event memorable videos   
2014 18' Skiff Int Regatta: Day 1 at San Francisco - Reversal on beach   
Emirates Team NZ: Last race boost cannot save team from table bottom   
PWA Alacati World Cup - Furious slalom is upon us   
J/111 World Championships - The Winner is Shmokin Joe!   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT