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PredictWind has more breeze for Friday

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World on 14 Aug 2008
PredictWind - Graphic showing expected wind strength and direction at 40metres for Friday 15 August at 1500hrs for Qingdao PredictWind.com www.predictwind.com

www.predictwind.com!PredictWind is showing more wind for tomorrow, Friday at the Qingdao Olympics.

Racing today has been cancelled. Tomorrow all five courses will be in operation.

However www.predictwind.com!Predictwind is showing winds blowing at 12 knots tomorrow maybe more.

The actual graphs show substantially more wind however these are predictions for 40metres and to get to a five metre level which is of more interest to sailors in Qingdao and fans at home, the reading should be divided by a factor of 1.7.

Developer of the PredictWind application, and member of the Alinghi weater team in 2003 and 2007, Jon Bilger comments: 'Regarding the forecasted wind strength, as the model predicts at 40m, and the height that sailors are interested in is around 5m, and often there is a high wind gradient, you will find dividing the wind strength by 1.7 is often a good factor.'


In the graph above it can be seen that there is a high degree of variation between the Canadian feed (CMC) and the US feed (GFS) represented by the solid line.

This variation indicated the degree of uncertainty in the forecast, and if the Canadian feed is more correct then substantially stronger winds could be expected.

Regional 5 Day Text Forecast for Qingdao: CMC

Date Hour Speed (Knots) Direction (Magnetic)
Wed 13 2100 6 140
Thu 14 0000 7 150
Thu 14 0300 7 150
Thu 14 0600 6 140
Thu 14 0900 7 140
Thu 14 1200 9 150
Thu 14 1500 8 160
Thu 14 1800 10 10
Thu 14 2100 12 70
Fri 15 0000 14 110
Fri 15 0300 7 320
Fri 15 0600 29 -10
Fri 15 0900 25 30
Fri 15 1200 18 10
Fri 15 1500 15 10
Fri 15 1800 13 10
Fri 15 2100 13 0
Sat 16 0000 10 10
Sat 16 0300 11 -10
Sat 16 0600 9 0
Sat 16 0900 9 10
Sat 16 1200 14 30
Sat 16 1500 10 20
Sat 16 1800 10 30
Sat 16 2100 10 20

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