Please select your home edition
Edition
Helm Events 728x90

High hurricane activity predicted for the Atlantic in 2013

by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach/Sail-World on 17 Apr 2013
Hurricane Sandy damage .. .
As the hurricane season approaches for the North Atlantic leisure sailors, marinas and yacht clubs, already left bruised by the last season's hurricanes, will be watching the forecasts closely. Colorado State University, in their 30th year of forecasts, has no good news for them, this week predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and no less than four major (more than 95kt winds) hurricanes.

Their prediction of such and above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season is due primarily to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic and expected lack of an El Nino event.

The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, which falls between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5).


'The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,' said Phil Klotzbach, who authors the forecast with William Gray of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. 'Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.'

The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.

The forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.

'All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is,' Klotzbach said. 'It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.'

Five hurricane seasons since 1900 exhibited oceanic and atmospheric characteristics most similar to those observed in February-March 2013: 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. Four out of the five years had above-average hurricane activity.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.



The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)

• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)

• Caribbean – 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability website at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Landfall probabilities for regions and counties are adjusted based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Probabilities are also available for the Caribbean and Central America. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University in Massachusetts.

The team will issue forecast updates on June 3 and August 2.

CSU RESEARCH TEAM EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013
-Released April 10, 2013-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Median Forecast for 2013
in parentheses)
Named Storms (12)* 18
Named Storm Days (60.1) 95
Hurricanes (6.5) 9
Hurricane Days (21.3) 40
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 4
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (92) 165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (103%) 175
* Numbers in ( ) represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.

PredictWind.comNorth Technology - Southern SparsWildwind 2016 660x82

Related Articles

Hyde Sails Distributor in Denmark places 1000th order!
Congratulations to Kjeld Larsen, Hyde Sails distributor in Denmark, on placing his 1000th order with the loft! Congratulations to Kjeld Larsen, Hyde Sails distributor in Denmark, on placing his 1000th order with the loft! Kjeld has been working with Hyde Sails as a distributor since placing his first order in March 2008.
Posted today at 10:43 am
Two Oceans, One Rock in a Proa.
A Proa is a multihull sailboat common in the South Pacific and Indonesia. They have two different sized, parallel hulls. A Proa is a multihull sailboat common in the South Pacific and Indonesia. They have two different sized, but parallel hulls. Jzero, the Proa pictured here is a shunting boat and does not tack. Ryan Finn is launching the modified 36-foot Proa, so as to accomplish the fastest-ever, nonstop solo-sail, around the Old Clipper-ship Cape Horn Route from New York to San Francisco.
Posted on 2 Dec
Predictwind release improved racing and cruising routing function
PredictWind has released a major upgrade to its Routing function, taking a much more graphic and interactive approach PredictWind has released a major upgrade to its Routing function, taking a much more graphic and interactive approach to what has been a black art of weather routing, used to chose the fastest route for racers or most comfortable route for cruisers.
Posted on 28 Nov
Only room for one at the top
The results of RMIT's (Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology) independent testing are in. The results of RMIT's (Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology) independent testing are in. Zhik® is the market leader in waterproof durability with a new standard that replicates the real world sailing environment and conditions. It is an astounding four times more so than the previous leader.
Posted on 28 Nov
Parlier reigns supreme in Hydrofoil Worlds
The south westerly breeze kicks over the land mass over north facing beach, making for flat water despite strong wind. Whatever the shortcomings of the Fremantle Doctor on the first day of competition, were made up for in spades on day two, when the wind kicked in early at 15 knots and quickly built to 18 with gusts as high as 26. The Rockingham course is perfectly suited to such conditions. The south westerly breeze kicks over the land mass over the north facing beach, making for flat water despite strong wind.
Posted on 27 Nov
Fourth Blog from on board Perie Banou II
Oh no - not the coffee cup Oh no - not the coffee cup - Jon keeps us all entertained as he approaches Reunion Island. The B&G chartplotter tells me since leaving the pleasant mid Western Australian town of Carnarvon (by world standards, an isolated town), that I have sailed some 2559 NM and have 751nm to go to Le Port Reunion Island. French. Reunion is a Suburb (department) of Paris. Population 844,000.
Posted on 23 Nov
Third Blog from onboard Perie Banou II
Wind over the last week has been quiet and mild - Trade Winds from South East and South South East. It is 0830am here. 1030 in Western Australia. Windy. Rather Windy. Wind over the last week has been quiet and mild - Trade Winds from South East and South South East. Barometer 1018 to 1020 whatever they are. Last night I tapped the barometer and it sorta went oops. 1015hPa. Blimey.
Posted on 18 Nov
Second Blog from onboard Perie Banou II
This is day 13 since leaving the mid Western Australian town of Carnarvon. Remote region. Beautiful town. This is day 13 since leaving the mid Western Australian town of Carnarvon. Remote region. Beautiful town. Kept cooler by the strong south winds, which make the trees bend and grow to the north. Carnarvon is nice, especially the months of September, October, November, and December. The wind is strong. Often near gale strength, with squalls and blue skies.
Posted on 15 Nov
NoveNove Maui Aloha Classic - Day 14 - A dramatic final day
After a week of light winds trades finally returned on last day of NoveNove Maui Aloha Classic to provide pulsating end After a week of light winds the trades finally returned on the last day of the 2016 NoveNove Maui Aloha Classic to provide a pulsating end to the event, which saw Kevin Pritchard (Starboard / Ezzy / MFC) defend his single elimination crown, while Sarah-Quita Offringa fought her way back through the double elimination with be crowned the women’s Aloha Classic Champion.
Posted on 14 Nov
NoveNove Maui Aloha Classic - Day 13
After another lay day NoveNove Aloha Classic could all boil down to tomorrow, which is final day of possible competition After another lay day in Maui the 2016 NoveNove Aloha Classic could all boil down to tomorrow, which is the final day of possible competition.
Posted on 13 Nov