Please select your home edition
Edition
upffront 728x90

High hurricane activity predicted for the Atlantic in 2013

by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach/Sail-World on 17 Apr 2013
Hurricane Sandy damage .. .
As the hurricane season approaches for the North Atlantic leisure sailors, marinas and yacht clubs, already left bruised by the last season's hurricanes, will be watching the forecasts closely. Colorado State University, in their 30th year of forecasts, has no good news for them, this week predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and no less than four major (more than 95kt winds) hurricanes.

Their prediction of such and above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season is due primarily to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic and expected lack of an El Nino event.

The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, which falls between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5).


'The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,' said Phil Klotzbach, who authors the forecast with William Gray of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. 'Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.'

The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.

The forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.

'All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is,' Klotzbach said. 'It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.'

Five hurricane seasons since 1900 exhibited oceanic and atmospheric characteristics most similar to those observed in February-March 2013: 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. Four out of the five years had above-average hurricane activity.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.



The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil in 2013 are:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 72 percent (average for last century is 52 percent)

• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 48 percent (average for last century is 31 percent)

• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47 percent (average for last century is 30 percent)

• Caribbean – 61 percent (average for last century is 42 percent)

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability website at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Landfall probabilities for regions and counties are adjusted based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Probabilities are also available for the Caribbean and Central America. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University in Massachusetts.

The team will issue forecast updates on June 3 and August 2.

CSU RESEARCH TEAM EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013
-Released April 10, 2013-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Median Forecast for 2013
in parentheses)
Named Storms (12)* 18
Named Storm Days (60.1) 95
Hurricanes (6.5) 9
Hurricane Days (21.3) 40
Major Hurricanes (2.0) 4
Major Hurricane Days (3.9) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (92) 165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (103%) 175
* Numbers in ( ) represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.

North Technology - Southern SparsInSunSport - NZBakewell-White Yacht Design

Related Articles

Zhik sailors win 17 sailing medals at 2016 Olympic Regatta
The 2016 Olympic games are over and what a Games they have been - Zhik sailors dominated Zhik sailors won almost 60% of the medals contested at Rio de Janeiro. It was a regatta which tested sailors and gear - with one day being the most severe conditions ever experienced at an Olympic regatta. For the Zhik team riders on the waters of Rio, four years and more of hard work and dedication have paid off for many.
Posted on 29 Aug
Kids Polarised Sunglasses from Barz Optics
Barz Optics have developed a quality range of junior polarised sunglasses ideal for sailing and fishing. Barz Optics have developed a quality range of junior polarised sunglasses ideal for sailing and fishing. Each pair are supplied with a neoprene case and sunglass retainer.
Posted on 4 Aug
Reducing weight aloft with composite backstays
Reducing weight aloft is one of the most cost effective ways of increasing your boat speed and performance. Reducing weight aloft is one of the most cost effective ways of increasing your boat speed and performance. Every kilogram you take out of the rig is roughly equivalent to 4kg added to the bottom of your keel!
Posted on 26 Jul
Free $US3,000 Carbon Vang with SouthernFurl boom orders in July
Southern Spars is giving a free carbon vang - valued at US$3,000 - with SouthernFurl in-boom furlers ordered in July Southern Spars is giving away a free carbon vang - valued at US$3,000 - with all of their SouthernFurl in-boom furlers ordered in July. Carbon gas vangs make a great addition to the furling boom package, though if you’d prefer to keep your existing one, Southern Spars will offer you a 5% discount on the price of your boom instead.
Posted on 29 Jun
Newport Bermuda Race - High Noon takes honours
As the Newport Bermuda Race fleet rushed to the finish line on Monday in the wake of the first-to-finish boat, As the Newport Bermuda Race fleet rushed to the finish line on Monday in the wake of the first-to-finish boat, the powerful 100-foot grand prix Comanche, to the surprise of many they were led by an unusual boat and crew. High Noon, at 41 feet, is fully 59 feet shorter than Comanche and tens of feet shorter than many other entries.
Posted on 22 Jun
Platino recovery - Family confirms that tug has made rendezvous
Reports in social media say a salvage tug has made a rendezvous with the Platino earlier than expected. Reports in social media by family and friends of Nick Saull, the crew member killed during a catastrophic incident abroad the 66ft yacht Platino say the salvage tug which left on Tuesday night has made the rendezvous earlier than expected. The Facebook report says the tug, Sea Pelican, arrived on Friday morning, the weather in the area has eased and with a more favorable outlook.
Posted on 16 Jun
Royal Queensland Yacht Squadron to ban bottled water
Approval has been given to create a ban on bottled water that comes in plastic containers. The RQYS Management Committee has confirmed that approval has been given to create a ban on bottled water that comes in plastic containers. This will place the club as a leader in environmental impact management in Australia and around the world. The Royal Hong Kong Yacht Club earlier this year did likewise. Who’s next?
Posted on 16 Jun
SouthernFurl In-Boom furling systems withstand Sydney Hobart test
Southern Spars design team have developed the SouthernFurl Boom smaller budgets and yachts from 35-70 feet. Have you ever scared your family when you got stuck with too much sail up when you should be reefed? Southern Spars’ range of SouthernFurl booms are the answer – letting you reduce sail quickly and easily without leaving the safety of the cockpit.
Posted on 23 May
2016 Garda Trentino Olympic Week - Day 4
Garda Trentino Olympic Week 2016 draws near to the conclusion: the weather once again proves difficult. Garda Trentino Olympic Week 2016 draws near to the conclusion: the weather once again proves difficult. Tomorrow the medal race is scheduled for the Lasers and another two races for the three paralympic classes.
Posted on 13 May
CCA presents RCC Award to Scott and Mary Flanders
CCA has announced that Scott and Mary Flanders are the recipients of the organization’s 2015 Royal Cruising Club Trophy. The Cruising Club of America (CCA) has announced that Scott and Mary Flanders are the recipients of the organization’s 2015 Royal Cruising Club Trophy.
Posted on 22 Apr