sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 22, 2012 - Lift in Equities
Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 22, 2012 - Lift in Equities

'Image of the Day Draycote Dash - GBR mixed fleet sailing'    © Malcolm Lewin

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 22, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

A ceasefire has been proclaimed in the Middle-East but this may be in deferment to the US with the arrival of Secretary Clinton.

The break in hostilities will be no more than a tentative arrangement while Hamas restore their missile capability and the Israelis look to a more permanent solution. Unfortunately the cowardly terrorists advancing the war will not be satisfied until the Jewish state is destroyed so no solution can be proclaimed.

This did boost equity markets despite the EU crises being reinvigorated. EU FInance Ministers failed to reach agreement on the Greek bailout after the IMF called upon the Germans to fund further bailouts and existing loans turn toxic. The crises continues to spiral out of control and quarterisation may now be too late. Greece should have been cut and now becomes a millstone around the viability of the EC. German Chancellor Merkel advocated the EFSF as the funding mechanism but pockets are deep with arms on the short side.

In the US, the Fiscal Cliff issue remained stalled with the absence of the President to drive the negotiations. Consumer Sentiment dipped but the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.3.

The EUR regained 1.2800 but this will be tenuous at best. Risk aversion remains and demand driven commodity prices undermine the strength of the AUD which slipped to 1.0350 and the KIWI down to 0.8125. Fragility of the middle east is reflected in US and European markets which remain highly vulnerable

Image of the Day Winter racing at Draycote UK -  http://www.malcolmlewinphotography.co.u!©_Malcolm_Lewin  

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 21, 2012

The big news economically was Moody's downgrade of France. This has been telegraphed but does have an impact as France is a leading nation within the EC and is relied upon as a foundation and support for lesser nations.

President Hollande has a tax and spend economic philosophy so this will further test ratings levels as indebtedness grows and the economy deteriorates. The EUR trades just below 1.2800 and the GBP 1.5900 and developments in the US could drive future direction. Bernanke spoke with a somewhat upbeat view on the US economy. He noted the improvement in Housing and Consumer Expenditure and Sentiment. He predicted a 'good year' for 2013 if Congress and the President get their act together. His prognosis of the Fiscal Cliff was recession and one which the Fed could not combat.

He endorsed QE Infinity but did not advocate further Monetary easing. The upbeat Bernanke has left one big 'if'! There will be a deal to avoid the Fiscal Cliff but the worst case scenario may well be accomplished. Some taxes may not rise but there will certainly be tax rises and expenditure cuts will be tempered to avoid popular entitlement cuts.

The root of the deficit and debt is entitlements and Democratic spending which will not be addressed.

Debt now has gone beyond 100% of GDP which was the crises point assumed in Europe. The news is not great but the spotlight has been removed with the President touring Asia and Thanksgiving providing the relief of a long holiday weekend. Negotiations will resume in earnest next week and that will be a testing time for equity markets.

Commodities drifted and took the AUD back to 1.0365 and the KIWI down to 0.8150.

Image of the Day Hugo Boss - 2012 Vendee Globe -  Christophe Launay ©  

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 20, 2012

US markets rallied strongly in to the new week after finishing strongly on the close Friday. The market uptick eliminated much of last weeks losses after the President expressed confidence over negotiations with congress regarding the Fiscal Cliff.

European Finance Ministers agreed to release the next bail-out tranche for Greece with the proviso they fulfil their obligations under the austerity agreement. Risk appetite soared with the EUR regaining 1.2800 and the GBP 1.5900. Greece will not comply so they will continue to support the failed member nation to ensure the single currency does not collapse. Deferment is preferable to destruction! In the US, Housing data supported the positive sentiment with Existing Home Sales rising 2.1% and the NAHB Housing Market Index moving up to 46, both beating expectations.

The positive spin from Washington was more the absence of the President, that enabled the markets to rally in the lead up to the Thanksgiving long weekend. Obama tours Asia and thus deflecting from the fiscal negotiations allowing a rally to ensue. The Middle-East crises continues to evolve and has the potential to spin out of control. The threats to markets are considerable and diverse, from the EU debt crises to the Fiscal Cliff in the US but a trigger could be the Israel conflict spiralling out of control across a destabilised Middle East.

Commodities rallied as economic confidence rose with the AUD breaking above 1.0400 again and the KIWI approaching 0.8200.

This tinder box, globally, is highly volatile so markets will remain very nervous.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=103995

1:05 AM Thu 22 Nov 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

21 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 21, 2012 - France downgraded
18 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 17, 2012 - Deal on Cliff?
16 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 16, 2012 - Billions shed
15 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 15, 2012 - Economic revolt
13 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 13, 2012 - Light Veterans Day
11 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 9, 2012 - Equities crash
07 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 7, 2012 - Equities rally
06 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 6, 2012 - Markets go quiet
03 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 3, 2012 - Confidence falls
02 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 2, 2012 - US strong
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World





Monaco's Miani wins Melges 20 2014 Audi-Tron Sailing Series by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,


























































America's Cup: Challenger calls Competitor Meeting ahead of deadline *Feature by Richard Gladwell Sail-World.com/nz,




Half Ton Classics Cup - Swuzzlebubble victorious with a day to spare
U.S. Women’s Match Racing Championship - Top teams to battle
Audi-Tron Sailing Series - Melges 20 fleet ready for action
Volvo Cork Week - Front runners emerge on day 3
Nacra 17 Europeans - Big winds halt racing in La Grande Motte
49er and 49erFX Europeans - Tough end to qualifying phase + Video
New Classification Code for consultation released by the IPC
Clipper Round The World Yacht Race fleet heads for London
Volvo Ocean Race - Abu Dhabi and Team Alvimedi head for England
Rio 2016 in the sights of ISAF Youth Worlds 420 sailors
Exciting new International Audi Melges 20 Ranking System now in play
FISU World University Match Racing Championships - GBR women win gold
2014 Seiko 49er and 49erFX European Championship - Day 2
Volvo Ocean Race teams Abu Dhabi and Alvimedica leave Newport, RI
Half Ton Classics Cup - Champagne conditions on Day 2 + Video
ABYC Fourth of July Regatta - Snipes join the action
Volvo Cork Week - Three bullets for ballistic catapult
Nacra 17 Europeans - Besson and Riou lead the overall standings
Formula 16 World Championship - Aussies claim title in Newport
Vestas Sailrocket 3 - The journey beckons
Clipper Round the World - London to provide emotional heroes welcome   
ISAF Youth Worlds - Italians to lead RS:X fleet in Tavira   
Vestas Sailrocket 3 - Over the Horizon   
Foiling Week - Italian Moth Championship - Final results   
NYYC Race Week - Yachting history on display   
Rescued sailors reach shore after dramatic ocean rescue   
Half Ton Classics Cup: Swuzzlebubble out front on Day 1 + Video   
New York Yacht Club Race Week - Yachting history on display   
Volvo Cork Week - Thrilling conditions welcome international fleet   
Nacra 17 Europeans: Success for Italy's Bissaro and Sicouri   
America's Cup: 2017 venue short-list reduced to two Cities   
Formula Windsurfing Youth and Master Worlds overall   
49er and 49erFX Europeans: Pitfalls aplenty on day 1 + Video   
ISAF Youth Worlds - Laser Radial sailors look to join list of legends   
Coville soon to chase solo circumnavigation record in giant trimaran   
Fierce competition at the Meanline Fins Slalom Challenge   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Brunel opt for experienced winner   
Bakewell-White supermaxi designed to take Transpac's Barn Door Trophy *Feature   
Crew rescued by navy patrol from J/111 racer after Mayday in storm   
Team Alvimedica practice in Newport, RI - Photos   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT