sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 17, 2012 - Deal on Cliff?
Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 17, 2012 - Deal on Cliff?

'Olympic Flashback Ben Ainslie (GBR) was under enormous media pressure right from the start of the Olympics, and was still able to win his fourth Gold Medal'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 17, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

US markets rallied to close a miserable week with the prospect of a deal on the 'Fiscal Cliff'. Speaker Boehner commented that talks between Congress and the President were constructive and had hopes of a resolution.

The prospect of Obama compromising and not raising tax rates must be considered minimal if precedence is anything to go by. If he accepts Republicans revenue from tax reform and cuts, then a new page would be turned on American politics and there is definite hope for the next Presidential term.

Aversion of the 'Fiscal Cliff' through real reform solutions will instill confidence in the markets and allow investment and an economic recovery. Obama's far left agenda would be mortally compromised for higher cause... the US people. This gives us hope but I cannot see it, as he and his cohorts are lefty zealots that will never surrender this opportunity to turn the US in to a liberal European style socialist state.

Time will tell and I hope I am wrong.

The economic data continues to deteriorate with US Manufacturing and Industrial Production both contracting. The EUR remained steady at 1.2730 but looks prone with the issue level a looming prospect.

Confidence will support the AUD but a retracement this week could continue if US political talks fail. The AUD traded 1.0340 and the KIWI held above 0.8100. This week will focus on the EU crises developments and the fiscal cliff negotiations, punctuated by economic data.

Image of teh Day First sailing day of the AC72 of Artemis Racing, 13 November 2012, Alameda, USA -  Sander van der Borch_- Artemis Racing ©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: November 16, 2012

Equity markets continued to shed billions with economic data releases confirming the dire state of the worlds economy. European data confirmed the EC had slid back into recession tipped by the Southern states with France and Germany only just remaining positive.

The debt crises has overwhelmed EU members and the use of Monetary expansionary policies has postponed the inevitable. The spectre of inflation has now begun to appear and this is Pandora's box. The QE has been teasing the CPI and now they must act. The removal of monetary stimulus leaves only fiscal solutions and Politicians have little appetite with the growing civilian upheaval. Rioting against the austerity measures reflect the citizens reaction to even more severe measures.

In the US, data has deteriorated with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index falling 10.7 as did the Empire State survey. Weekly Jobless claims are on the rise and will be reflected in a rise in Unemployment which had previously dropped below 8% the month before the US election conveniently assisting in Obama's re-election.

The looming 'Fiscal Cliff' undermines confidence and will build as the year end approaches. It really is not difficult.....balance the budget! No more room for procrastination!

The contraction in global demand is starting to impact the commodity currencies with the AUD slipping back to below 1.0300 and the KIWI under 0.8100. Economic data is also testing with NZ Job ads falling and Car Sales falling in Australia.

The Fiscal Cliff and the European debt crises spiral out of control infecting equities and commodities. Action is required and leaders are not too good at that.

Veloce had its first outing in the Club Marine Series this season. - Club Marine Series 2012/2013, Melbourne, Australia  Teri Dodds ©  

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 15, 2012

The world is in turmoil with the middle east on fire, Europe mired in anti-austerity riots and the US struggling with economic revolt. European riots spread across Europe including Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal emanating directly from the austerity measures imposed to avoid economic collapse.

The crisis is spiralling out of control with protests moving to France and Belgium. The continued budget deficits add further to the crippling debt and the printing of more EURO's will not solve the fundamantal problem. Live within your means is a novel concept. The other major problem is the disfunctional single currency which is under real threat.

The GBP fell to 1.5850 after the Bank of England released minutes citing the rising inflation and the EU impacting growth which may require further QE undermining the currency. In the US Retail Sales fell and as the Fiscal Cliff approaches and it is likely economic indicators will continue to confirm deterioration. The result of the fiscal cliff will throw the US back in to recession dragging the global economy with it. Obama will raise taxes and cut defence and the economy will suffer.

Make no mistake, the Americans face an economic crises which this administration is incapable of solving.

The global situation directly impacts growth and demand which directly effects China and thus commodity prices. The AUD fell back to 1.0380 and the KIWI 0.8115.

This is likely to continue and when Central Banks realise the need to match the Fed, ECB and BofE the rate cuts will add further downside pressure.

SAILING - PRE-VENDEE GLOBE 2012 - PENMARCH' (FRA) - 24/09/2012 - PHOTO JEAN-MARIE LIOT / DPPI / VENDEE GLOBE - MACIF / SKIPPER FRANCOIS GABART (FRA)  Jean-Marie Liot - DPPI_- Vendée Globe ©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 14, 2012

Markets were steady overnight with European equities rising and Bond Yields slipping reflecting a reprieve for Greece. EU Finance Ministers agreed to extend budgetry requirements for Greek austerity measures out to 2016. The waver allows Greece to continue to add to the already overwhelming debt by running budget deficits until 2016 when they will limit this to 2% of GDP.

They also agreed to defer the next bailout tranche predictably kicking the proverbial can down the road. UK Inflation crept up to 2.7%, despite the weak state of the economy, which must be unsettling for Central Bankers as the sleeping giant could well bring all the chickens home! The GBP remained weak at 1.5875 and the EUR tests 1.2700. The strong Chinese economic data has given new legs to the AUD which trades 1.0425 and the KIWI approaching 0.8200.

The risk sentiment will again be tested as the EU debt crises rolls on and the US Fiscal Cliff negotiations drag on. Obama has never lead on Economic policy and defers to Congress who are divided. To avoid the fiscal cliff and certain recession is a supposed priority but precedence points to brinksmanship until the deadline and then inaction and deferment.

Democrats would not be unhappy seeing tax rises and cuts to the military so Republicans should stand aside and let the lunatics run the asylum as the people advocated last week. Democrats have not passed a budget in more than three years and the plan is to have no plan. This is similar to European Politicians and should result in a disaster for the global economy.

SAILING - PRE VENDEE GLOBE 2012-2013 - 24/09/12 - PENMARC'H (FRA) - 24/09/12 - PHOTO JEAN-MARIE LIOT / DPPI / VENDEE GLOBE - SAVEOL - SKIPPER / SAM DAVIES (GBR)  Jean-Marie Liot - DPPI_- Vendée Globe ©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 13, 2012
Veterans Day in the US means a very light trading day on Wall St and thus globally with little direction.

Markets did earlier focus on extremely positive economic data from China, with the Trade surplus expanding at the best rate in four years. The Trade Surplus accelerated at a very strong pace as exports boomed boosting commodity currencies with the AUD moving up to 1.0415 and the KIWI to 0.8175.

The link with other risk-currencies has been broken with the EUR falling back to 1.2715 and the GBP down to 1.5875. The news from China has been positive but ultimate dependence on the European and US markets has tempered the gains. In Europe the EU Finance Ministers gather this week with approval of the next Greek bail-out tranche on the agenda.

The Troika are reticent to approve this despite the Greeks passage of the new budget over the weekend. The problem is the fiscal deterioration with forecasters predicting Greek debt to rise to more than 190% of GDP! One thing for sure is that this will not end well!

The US meanwhile face the 'fiscal cliff' and the 'debt ceiling' which will inevitably lead to higher taxes no matter what the solution. The solution will definitely negatively impact US (and thus global) growth.

Obama has little grasp on the requirements of the economy and survives on personal popularity. The peoples affection will abandon him when the economy plunges back in to recession in the New Year!

You get what you pay for!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=103877

10:46 AM Sun 18 Nov 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

16 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 16, 2012 - Billions shed
15 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 15, 2012 - Economic revolt
13 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 13, 2012 - Light Veterans Day
11 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 9, 2012 - Equities crash
07 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 7, 2012 - Equities rally
06 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 6, 2012 - Markets go quiet
03 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 3, 2012 - Confidence falls
02 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 2, 2012 - US strong
01 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 1, 2012 - US re-opens thin
31 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 31, 2012 - US remains closed
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

When race leader Dongfeng rounded Singapore 60+ nautical miles ahead of the chasing pack, it looked like the final 1200 miles of Leg three would be a procession but over the last day, the Volvo Ocean race leg from Abu Dhabi to Sanya China appears to have tightened incredibly. ... [more]  

US Sailing and Rolex USA announced last week that the 2014 Rolex Yachtswoman of the Year is Stephanie Roble. Her accomplishments on the water last year were recognized by the selection panel for her versatility; her accomplishments as a skipper and as a crew; and her competitive successes on a variety of platforms, sailing against both men and women. ... [more]  

The Classic 18fters were racing again on Saturday on Sydney harbour. Michael Chittenden caught the action from a shore vantage point. ... [more]  

Barcelona World Race - The first of the Great Capes is fast-approaching, with the leading boats in the Barcelona World Race expected to pass the longitude of the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of South Africa tomorrow. As they pass 20°E, the Atlantic Ocean will deliver its verdict – did Cheminées Poujoulat’s east-bound track or Neutrogena’s southerly gamble pay off? ... [more]  

Mardi Gras may not be for another month but US Sailing’s National Sailing Programs Symposium (NSPS) kicked it off early for Oakcliff Sailing this year. This evening, Oakcliff received The Captain Joe Prosser Award, given to an organization that has made an exemplary contribution toward improving the quality and safety in the training or instruction of sailors. ... [more]  

The 35th St. Maarten Heineken Regatta has already attracted entries from 20 different countries: Antigua, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Puerto Rico, Russia, St.Maarten, Uruguay, USA and the US Virgin Islands. ... [more]  

The world is watching. Can Dongfeng Race Team hold onto their 57 nautical miles lead to China for what will essentially be the ultimate home victory? Or will another team get desperate and make a bold decision that could cost Dongfeng their win? ... [more]  

Most of the marque classes at Quantum Key West Race Week 2015 came down to the last day of the regatta, which delivered the toughest conditions of the week. Howling winds and rough seas challenging the competitors on Friday, forcing the top contenders to raise their game in order to claim overall victory. ... [more]  

Barcelona World Race - Sport met science today on the Barcelona World Race when the pairs of skippers took the first opportunity to deploy their data monitoring Argo beacon which was given to them in Bareclona prior to the start. ... [more]  

2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - It really wasn’t our week. Two races were held today in very nice conditions and we finished third in both. Bella Mente won both races to win the class. ... [more]  

The Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series, incorporating three days of coastal racing and the Mount Gay Rum Round Barbados Race concluded last night at a sumptuous, Mount Gay Rum-fuelled prizegiving dinner and party. The final 300-mile Ocean Race to Antigua to tie up with the Superyacht Cup starts on Saturday. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on the water again today at 2015 Quantum Key West Race Week, and provided this gallery of images from day five ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2015 - With a solid 17-20 knots from the north east, reducing the possibility of a distance sapping park up, the likehood of the Leg three leader the Chinese boat Dongfeng getting the gun in Sanya just 640 nautical miles ahead continues to strengthen. ... [more]  

The 2015 ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship set to be held in Swinoujscie, Poland from 15 – 19 September 2015 Notice of Race has been released. ... [more]  

Currently doing scheduled maintenance. Some elements of site may not be visible at the moment. ... [more]  

On 2nd January 2015, Team Vestas Wind announced that skipper Chris Nicholson had been tasked to review the team during the month of January. The objective is to ensure the right team for the come back to the race, which is now, for this team, of a different nature than the scheduled original route from Alicante to Gothenburg. ... [more]  

Beau Outteridge has compiled a video of highlights and interviews from the 2015 McDougall + McConanghy Moth Worlds completed recently in Sorrento, Melbourne ... [more]  

Former Oracle Team USA team member, Matthew Mitchell has issued a media release stating that he has lodged a complaint with the International Sailing Federation over the actions of a fellow crew member, Simeon Tienpont, and inaction by the International Jury for the 34th America's Cup, in San Francisco. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on the water at 2015 Quantum Key West Race Week, and provided this gallery of images from day four. ... [more]  

2015 ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami - Along with the rest of the 848 sailors from 63 nations currently training in Florida ahead of ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami, Presented by Sunbrella (January 26-31), US Sailing Team Sperry Top-Sider athletes and coaches have entered a period of intense focus ahead of the first major Olympic and Paralympic event of 2015. ... [more]  

2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - It probably won't be a late night on Duval Street for the sailors competing on Division Two and Three at Quantum Key West Race Week 2015. After doing three races in strong winds on Thursday, there are no doubt a lot of sore muscles, aching bones and tired bodies. ... [more]  

Children’s heart health continues to benefit from Team Alvimedica’s online auction now underway for two unique experiences during the Volvo Ocean Race stopover here. The Chinese Agape Foundation Inc. will be the recipient of funds raised for these unique team experiences in Sanya, the next stopover port of the global ocean race. ... [more]  

Lauderdale Olympic Classes Regatta overall by John Payne, Fort Lauderdale
The Lauderdale Olympic Classes Regatta was held January 17-19 in the Atlantic Ocean off of Dania Beach in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. Open to Finns (it’s their Midwinter Championship), Lasers and Laser Radials, competitors came from twenty countries and Puerto Rico. They range in age from 14 to 79. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 Leg 3 update from Dongfeng Race Team: All hands on deck as Chinese crew suffer damage to their boat as the tack line of an important sail (J1) broke suddenly sending the 132 m² sail shooting up the forestay in a matter of seconds. The team have managed to set up a temporary replacement but the reality is, this is a rude awakening of how far away the finish line is. ... [more]  

The city of Cagliari , Sardinia - Italy, will inaugurate the 2015 – 2016 America's Cup World Series, the regattas preliminary to the 35th America's Cup. The event will take place in the Gulf surrounding the island's capital from June 4 to 7, 2015. ... [more]  

Based off early morning forecasts, it appeared a lay day might be in the cards for competitors at Quantum Key West Race Week 2015. Some sailors might have already been making plays to play tennis or go fishing during an hour-long dockside delay. ... [more]  

Bay of Islands photographer, Steve Western was on hand to catch the action on the on the first Day (and with a couple from Day 2) of racing at the Millennium Cup and Bay of Islands Sailing Week. The two events are being conducted in the picturesque Bay of Islands, Northland, NZ. Five superyachts are competing along with round the world race winner Steinlager 2. ... [more]  

Despite generally light airs with winds reaching no more that 15kts, three teams have won their skipper’s weight in rum for breaking records in the 79th Mount Gay Rum Round Barbados Race. ... [more]  

2015 St. Maarten Heineken Regatta - There is no straightforward regatta 'formula' and many events around the world strive to improve the experience that participants have year after year. For the St.Maarten Heineken Regatta it is no different, and this year they are listening to the regatta sailors when it comes to on shore venues and locations. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on the water at 2015 Quantum Key West Race Week, and provided this gallery of images from day three. ... [more]  

Sailing in light winds of under 10kts, five superyachts enjoyed the first day's racing at the Millennium Cup sailed in the Bay of Islands, in Northland, New Zealand. Five superyachts are competing Silencio, Silvertip, Bliss, Janice of Wyoming and Sassafras. Three of these designed by Ed duBois, who is attending the regatta. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race - Up up and away by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team
Volvo Ocean Race 2015 - The nightmares of the Malacca Straits behind them, leg three leaders Dongfeng Race Team have now well and truly entered the South China Sea, clearing Singapore without too many problems on the way to Sanya. China, a little over 1000 miles away. ... [more]  

Barcelona World Race - 'Haves' and 'Have Nots' by Barcelona World Race Media
The Barcelona World Race tells the tale of the 'Haves' and the 'Have Nots' today. Leaders Chemineés Poujoulat have plenty of perfect breeze, sprinting nearly due east at speeds peaking at more than 20kts, while the chasing pack 'have not' and are stymied by the Saint Helena high pressure ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race Leg 3 update from Jack Bouttell onboard Dongfeng
ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami - Game time!
Extreme Sailing Series™ 2015 – Ninth year ready to rock!
Foiling GC32s Key West Race Week images by Ingrid Abery
Mount Gay Rum Round Barbados Race - Crews prepare for big race
2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - Day 2
2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - A challenging day
America's Cup: Spithill leads Oracle reconnaissance team in Bermuda
Extreme Sailing Series announces new teams and venues for 2015
Barcelona World Race - Leaders enter the fastest section of the course
Martinique Surf Pro - Must attend event in the world surfing circuit
New York Yacht Club Invitational Cup preview
RORC Caribbean 600 proving irresistible
18ft Skiffs: Images from NSW Championships - Race 2
Volvo Ocean Race – Malacca Nightmare – now it’s a boat race again!!
2015 Annapolis to Newport Race - Battle for Surflant Prize
2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - Off to a great start
Volvo Ocean Race: Team Alvimedica - Enter the Dragon + Video
Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series - Day 3
World Match Racing Tour's title sponsor goes into administration
Kieler Woche 2015 promotes Olympic sailing competitions   
Trofeo S.A.R. Princesa Sofía – Kiteboarding and Dragons return   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami preview   
Audi Melges 20 Class - Miami Winter Series   
Barcelona World Race - The South is looming.   
Island Water World Grenada Sailing Week announce new one design class   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 Leg 3 position report for 19th January   
Pape Chevrolet North American Championships - Register today!   
Volvo Ocean Race: Sally Barkow - from the Olympics to the Volvo   
Volvo Ocean Race Leg 3 - The big casino *Feature   
C&C 30 Javelin makes West Coast Debut   
Quantum Key West Race Week - Flurry of activity   
2015 Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series - Day 2   
Volvo Ocean Race Leg 3 - Entering the Malacca Strait   
McDougall+McConaghy Moth Worlds: More Alex McKinnon images   
Quantum Key West Race Week - GC32 class joins the action   
Mount Gay Round Barbados Race - Racing underway in classic conditions   
Barcelona World Race - Matched up for a Duel in the South   
McDougall+McConaghy Moth Worlds: Final day's action and Interviews   
Volvo Ocean Race - Fleet on the Monsoon trail   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT