sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 17, 2012 - Deal on Cliff?
Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 17, 2012 - Deal on Cliff?

'Olympic Flashback Ben Ainslie (GBR) was under enormous media pressure right from the start of the Olympics, and was still able to win his fourth Gold Medal'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 17, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

US markets rallied to close a miserable week with the prospect of a deal on the 'Fiscal Cliff'. Speaker Boehner commented that talks between Congress and the President were constructive and had hopes of a resolution.

The prospect of Obama compromising and not raising tax rates must be considered minimal if precedence is anything to go by. If he accepts Republicans revenue from tax reform and cuts, then a new page would be turned on American politics and there is definite hope for the next Presidential term.

Aversion of the 'Fiscal Cliff' through real reform solutions will instill confidence in the markets and allow investment and an economic recovery. Obama's far left agenda would be mortally compromised for higher cause... the US people. This gives us hope but I cannot see it, as he and his cohorts are lefty zealots that will never surrender this opportunity to turn the US in to a liberal European style socialist state.

Time will tell and I hope I am wrong.

The economic data continues to deteriorate with US Manufacturing and Industrial Production both contracting. The EUR remained steady at 1.2730 but looks prone with the issue level a looming prospect.

Confidence will support the AUD but a retracement this week could continue if US political talks fail. The AUD traded 1.0340 and the KIWI held above 0.8100. This week will focus on the EU crises developments and the fiscal cliff negotiations, punctuated by economic data.

Image of teh Day First sailing day of the AC72 of Artemis Racing, 13 November 2012, Alameda, USA -  Sander van der Borch_- Artemis Racing ©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: November 16, 2012

Equity markets continued to shed billions with economic data releases confirming the dire state of the worlds economy. European data confirmed the EC had slid back into recession tipped by the Southern states with France and Germany only just remaining positive.

The debt crises has overwhelmed EU members and the use of Monetary expansionary policies has postponed the inevitable. The spectre of inflation has now begun to appear and this is Pandora's box. The QE has been teasing the CPI and now they must act. The removal of monetary stimulus leaves only fiscal solutions and Politicians have little appetite with the growing civilian upheaval. Rioting against the austerity measures reflect the citizens reaction to even more severe measures.

In the US, data has deteriorated with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index falling 10.7 as did the Empire State survey. Weekly Jobless claims are on the rise and will be reflected in a rise in Unemployment which had previously dropped below 8% the month before the US election conveniently assisting in Obama's re-election.

The looming 'Fiscal Cliff' undermines confidence and will build as the year end approaches. It really is not difficult.....balance the budget! No more room for procrastination!

The contraction in global demand is starting to impact the commodity currencies with the AUD slipping back to below 1.0300 and the KIWI under 0.8100. Economic data is also testing with NZ Job ads falling and Car Sales falling in Australia.

The Fiscal Cliff and the European debt crises spiral out of control infecting equities and commodities. Action is required and leaders are not too good at that.

Veloce had its first outing in the Club Marine Series this season. - Club Marine Series 2012/2013, Melbourne, Australia  Teri Dodds ©  

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 15, 2012

The world is in turmoil with the middle east on fire, Europe mired in anti-austerity riots and the US struggling with economic revolt. European riots spread across Europe including Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal emanating directly from the austerity measures imposed to avoid economic collapse.

The crisis is spiralling out of control with protests moving to France and Belgium. The continued budget deficits add further to the crippling debt and the printing of more EURO's will not solve the fundamantal problem. Live within your means is a novel concept. The other major problem is the disfunctional single currency which is under real threat.

The GBP fell to 1.5850 after the Bank of England released minutes citing the rising inflation and the EU impacting growth which may require further QE undermining the currency. In the US Retail Sales fell and as the Fiscal Cliff approaches and it is likely economic indicators will continue to confirm deterioration. The result of the fiscal cliff will throw the US back in to recession dragging the global economy with it. Obama will raise taxes and cut defence and the economy will suffer.

Make no mistake, the Americans face an economic crises which this administration is incapable of solving.

The global situation directly impacts growth and demand which directly effects China and thus commodity prices. The AUD fell back to 1.0380 and the KIWI 0.8115.

This is likely to continue and when Central Banks realise the need to match the Fed, ECB and BofE the rate cuts will add further downside pressure.

SAILING - PRE-VENDEE GLOBE 2012 - PENMARCH' (FRA) - 24/09/2012 - PHOTO JEAN-MARIE LIOT / DPPI / VENDEE GLOBE - MACIF / SKIPPER FRANCOIS GABART (FRA)  Jean-Marie Liot - DPPI_- Vendée Globe ©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 14, 2012

Markets were steady overnight with European equities rising and Bond Yields slipping reflecting a reprieve for Greece. EU Finance Ministers agreed to extend budgetry requirements for Greek austerity measures out to 2016. The waver allows Greece to continue to add to the already overwhelming debt by running budget deficits until 2016 when they will limit this to 2% of GDP.

They also agreed to defer the next bailout tranche predictably kicking the proverbial can down the road. UK Inflation crept up to 2.7%, despite the weak state of the economy, which must be unsettling for Central Bankers as the sleeping giant could well bring all the chickens home! The GBP remained weak at 1.5875 and the EUR tests 1.2700. The strong Chinese economic data has given new legs to the AUD which trades 1.0425 and the KIWI approaching 0.8200.

The risk sentiment will again be tested as the EU debt crises rolls on and the US Fiscal Cliff negotiations drag on. Obama has never lead on Economic policy and defers to Congress who are divided. To avoid the fiscal cliff and certain recession is a supposed priority but precedence points to brinksmanship until the deadline and then inaction and deferment.

Democrats would not be unhappy seeing tax rises and cuts to the military so Republicans should stand aside and let the lunatics run the asylum as the people advocated last week. Democrats have not passed a budget in more than three years and the plan is to have no plan. This is similar to European Politicians and should result in a disaster for the global economy.

SAILING - PRE VENDEE GLOBE 2012-2013 - 24/09/12 - PENMARC'H (FRA) - 24/09/12 - PHOTO JEAN-MARIE LIOT / DPPI / VENDEE GLOBE - SAVEOL - SKIPPER / SAM DAVIES (GBR)  Jean-Marie Liot - DPPI_- Vendée Globe ©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 13, 2012
Veterans Day in the US means a very light trading day on Wall St and thus globally with little direction.

Markets did earlier focus on extremely positive economic data from China, with the Trade surplus expanding at the best rate in four years. The Trade Surplus accelerated at a very strong pace as exports boomed boosting commodity currencies with the AUD moving up to 1.0415 and the KIWI to 0.8175.

The link with other risk-currencies has been broken with the EUR falling back to 1.2715 and the GBP down to 1.5875. The news from China has been positive but ultimate dependence on the European and US markets has tempered the gains. In Europe the EU Finance Ministers gather this week with approval of the next Greek bail-out tranche on the agenda.

The Troika are reticent to approve this despite the Greeks passage of the new budget over the weekend. The problem is the fiscal deterioration with forecasters predicting Greek debt to rise to more than 190% of GDP! One thing for sure is that this will not end well!

The US meanwhile face the 'fiscal cliff' and the 'debt ceiling' which will inevitably lead to higher taxes no matter what the solution. The solution will definitely negatively impact US (and thus global) growth.

Obama has little grasp on the requirements of the economy and survives on personal popularity. The peoples affection will abandon him when the economy plunges back in to recession in the New Year!

You get what you pay for!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=103877

10:46 AM Sun 18 Nov 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

16 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 16, 2012 - Billions shed
15 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 15, 2012 - Economic revolt
13 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 13, 2012 - Light Veterans Day
11 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 9, 2012 - Equities crash
07 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 7, 2012 - Equities rally
06 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 6, 2012 - Markets go quiet
03 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 3, 2012 - Confidence falls
02 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 2, 2012 - US strong
01 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 1, 2012 - US re-opens thin
31 Oct 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 31, 2012 - US remains closed
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

The Australian supermaxi Perpetual Loyal has been forced to retire from the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race, with hull damage. The news came in a regular radio sked with race organisers, little detail was available, however it is understood that she has some hull delamination, probably arising from pounding though big seas and 25-30kt winds for the first day and night of the race. ... [more]  

For the last 18 hours, there has been never more than three nautical miles between the new kids on the block, Jim Clark and Kristy Hinze Clark's Comanche with Ken Read skippering the boat with distinction and the Bob Oatley's Wild Oats XI. Mark Richard's who was blown away by Comanche's reaching speed inside the harbour has been hunting the race leader relentlessly as the two boats beat south. ... [more]  

Clouds outlines what he is expecting to see in the race, and says that while the big boats will take all the attention in the early stages of the race, the weather is against them as the race progresses. The smaller boats will come surfing in a fresh northerly, while the front-runners cope with light winds on their final approach to the finish on the Derwent. ... [more]  

Sail-World is now running live in the changed website format. If you are running on a Mac with iOS please scroll to the bottom of the site and check that your region is set for your region and not some other. It can be correctly set up using the drop down boxes. Then go to the top, click refresh, and you should be away. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart: Comanche leads in softening morning breeze *Feature by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
The US supermaxi Comanche (Jim & Kirsty Clark) continues to enjoy a small lead at the head of the Rolex Sydney Hobart fleet. As the race enters its second day, organisers told Sail-World at 6.00am local time that the fleet was experiencing SW winds of 12-13kts and that these would ease further during the day. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart; Supermaxi Race Start VIDEO *Feature by Dale Lorimer, Sydney
The start of the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race saw the five 100 foot super maxis up against each other for the first time. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney to Hobart: Replay video coverage on Sail-World *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Replay of the start of the 2014 Rolex Sydney to Hobart Race. The fleet is expected to experience fresh to strong headwinds for the start and first 24 hours, although winds will moderate towards the end of this period. ... [more]  

Will Comanche take a scalp? by Rob Kothe and the Sail-World Team
After blasting off the startline earlier today, Jim Clark's Comanche continues to hold the lead in the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart race eight hours into the race. ... [more]  

A stiff southerly is testing the boats and sailors on the first afternoon of the 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart and by late afternoon, four yachts had retired from the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia’s annual race. The first casualties of the race were Tina of Melbourne, forced out because of hull damage and Bear Necessity with a damaged rudder, just two hours into the race. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race: The 117 competing yachts, including five 100-foot Maxis, represents the race’s largest number of starters since 1994. Of the five Maxis, Jim Clark’s Comanche (USA) made the early gains in the race’s 70th edition, reaching the first mark in record time and setting a blistering pace. Seven-time line honours winner Wild Oats XI was in close pursuit. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014: A memorable edition of the 628-nm race appears certain, with the contest between the fleet’s five Maxi yachts living up to the pre-race hype. At 8:00pm local time, Comanche leads seven-time line honours winner Wild Oats XI by one nautical mile, with Anthony Bell’s Perpetual Loyal and Syd Fischer’s Ragamuffin 100 just a few miles behind the leading duo. ... [more]  

Top international photographers, Carlo Borlenghi and Daniel Forster were on the water, and in the air, for the start of the 70th edition of the Rolex Sydney Hobart Race. Here is a selection of their images of the day. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - Start photos by Andrea Francolini. ... [more]  

Comanche skipper Ken Read was in fine form in this video interview. He says On the first night, will there will be too much upwind to be able to send it? It absolutey plays on my mind as the skipper this boat is untested. We’re completely cutting edge, and when it's cutting edge it’s a Formula 1 race car that blows up its engine on the first lap. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race: Brad Kellett, Brindabella’s sailing master, reported that while he was doing his regular checks this evening he discovered larger than normal quantities of water in the bottom of the boat, found to be coming from damaged rudder bearings. 'We were just coming into our own after a risky tactical decision to go offshore paid off,' a disappointed Kellett said. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Day 1 start images by photographer Carlo Borlenghi ... [more]  

One of the largest fleets in many years started the 70th Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race today in a building southerly and in bright sunshine. There seemed to be some mind games going on amongst the super maxis during the pre race dry runs as each in turn put in a single reef in the 30 minutes before the start. Possibly there was some tossing of the coin as to whether it was ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - Tony Cable just keeps going on. Last year he finished his 48th Sydney Hobart, setting a record for the number of races by an individual - this year it is number 49 - 49 not out, just one off the half ton! ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race: Designed for fast broad reaching, the 15 knot plus south-easterly breeze on the harbour was made to order for the big red and black hulled yacht owned by American Jim Clark and his Australian wife, Kristy. After a brilliant start slightly ahead and to leeward of Wild Oats XI, Comanche swiftly unfurled her giant spinnaker and took off, quickly ‘rolling the Oats’. ... [more]  

America’s Cup winning skipper Jimmy Spithill could well be the most overqualified grinder you’ll see in action in the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia’s Rolex Sydney Hobart start line today. 'He’s been a wonderful team player and literally in the pre-start you’re going to see him grinding, he said he’d do whatever it takes, and he’s lived up to that,' Comanche skipper Ken Read said. ... [more]  

Expect a spectacular and very fast start down Sydney Harbour in the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race this year. At the final briefing for crews at the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia this morning, the Bureau of Meteorology’s Andrew Treloar told the sailors that a southerly front is expected to move through Sydney about an hour before race start. ... [more]  

Chicken pies, the gooseneck and the voodoo stick were the last items to be ticked off today in Wild Oats XI’s preparation for a record-breaking bid in the Rolex Sydney Hobart race, which starts on Sydney Harbour at 1pm tomorrow. ... [more]  

The 2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart coverage will go live at 0800 AEST with interviews, but will play the promo until then. ... [more]  

In the media scrum for interviews with the skippers and owners of the five super maxis that followed a short press conference at the CYCA on Christmas Eve, anyone from outside the yachting scene might not have noticed one of the world’s finest sailors and circumnavigators standing quietly to one side chatting with Iain Murray and Steve Jarvin ... [more]  

America’s Cup winning skipper Jimmy Spithill could well be the most overqualified grinder you’ll see in action in the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia’s Rolex Sydney Hobart start line today. 'He’s been a wonderful team player and literally in the pre-start you’re going to see him grinding, he said he’d do whatever it takes, and he’s lived up to that,' Comanche skipper Ken Read said. ... [more]  

When most would have been sitting down for Christmas lunch the Wild Oats XI team were to be seen out on Sydney Harbour testing their new - and appropriately named - gooseneck, that replaces the one that failed when out training earlier in the week. In a puffy nor'easter Wild Oats XI headed to Manly on the wind, swung around close to the Manly East mark and headed back down the harbour for home. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - The Weather Gate *Feature by John Curnow and Rob Kothe, Sydney
In order to win this iconic ocean race,on handicap, there are three things you absolutely need to have accomplished. Two you can do something about, whereas the third is entirely out of your control. ... [more]  

For Christmas a Shiny new Sail-World.com *Feature by Brendan Maxwell
Santa’s elves started on January 7th 2014 building a set of shiny new Sail-World.com websites and just minutes before Christmas morning in one of Santa’s first touch downs Auckland New Zealand , TetraMedia General Manager Jedda Murphy flicked the switch on the dedicated TetraMeda servers in Frankfurt Germany to take almost all our world-wide audience to the new Sail-World sites. ... [more]  

Professor Pat Pending had the most amazing Convert-a-Car in the 60s cartoon series, the Wacky Races. It could do just about anything. Come Boxing Day and the start of the 70th Sydney-Hobart, some may well wish they had a Convert-a-Boat. Being a hundred feet at the start would be cool. You get away off your own line and in clear breeze. You’re also well inside the rulebook. ... [more]  

Few Americans have won more sailboat races than Ken Read, 53, the President of North Sails . Read is skipper of Comanche, Jim and Kristy Clark’s new 100-fooer, one of five that will be lining up on the startline of the Sydney to Hobart. I caught up with Read some 48 hours before the start to get his pulse on the race, Comanche, and the adventure that lies ahead, en route to Hobart. ... [more]  

The skippers of the five 100 foot super maxis battling for Line Honours in the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race speak about the boats, the weather and their expectations. ... [more]  

For sure Christmas is upon the 16 skippers of the Barcelona World Race, but the way they enjoy it or deal with it will be different from team to team, and skipper to skipper. But for everyone the thoughts of the 31st December start, and what lies ahead for the coming three months, are impossible to suppress. Even on Christmas Day. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Team Vestas Wind recovery video *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Three and a half minute video of the Team Vestas Wind recovery operation from the reef at St Brandon. The Volvo Ocean Racer struck the reef on November 29, just after nightfall breaking off both rudders, she also ;ost a considerable part of her stern section. ... [more]  

Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race 2014 - Another great journey south
Sydney Hobart - Ragamuffin's David Witt explains deck failure + Video
Wild Oats XI - Damage drama in lead-up to Sydney Hobart Race
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race images by Photographer Carlo Borlenghi
Five faces behind the 100ft super maxis by Andrea Francolini
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Everyone's in with a chance
Comanche Designers talk before Sydney Hobart
Olympic Sailing Waters - Rio de Janeiro
St. Maarten Heineken Regatta - Holiday gifts for a range of entries!
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - To Hobart in Style
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race: Ken Read's notes on Comanche
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Rio 100 - A supermaxi is reborn + Video *Feature
Volvo Ocean Race: Video of Team Vestas Wind being removed from reef
St. Maarten Heineken Regatta - Holiday gifts for a range of entries!
Entries open for 2015 ORC Championship events
Rolex Sydney Hobart - Levelling the playing field
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race video preview
Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - It's a Woman’s world too
Moth Worlds – Looping the loop *Feature
Miami Winter Series - M32 racing gets underway
Rio 2016 - Super-bugs found in Rio sailing waters   
Building the bridge from Optimist to Laser and beyond – with Byte C1 *Feature   
Kieler Woche - Notices of Race published – entry systems are now open   
Adventures of a Sailor Girl: News and interviews from December 22 show   
RORC Transatlantic 2014 Race Lanzarote-Grenada - Overall report   
Volvo Ocean Race: Team Vestas Wind images from the reef recovery   
Volvo Ocean Race: Team Vestas Wind recovered from reef   
RORC Transatlantic Race 2014 - Prizegiving   
Qingdao to continue as Asian ISAF Sailing World Cup venue   
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - Will it be Bash and Crash?   
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race: USA's RIO 100 trains off Sydney Heads   
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - Weather early Xmas gift for small yachts   
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Hollywood focused on victory   
Soldiering on in the 70th Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race   
Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series - Count down to Caribbean opener   
Barcelona World Race 2014-15 - The mental game + Videos   
Rolex Sydney Hobart: Jim Clark's thoughts on Comanche's maiden race *Feature   
St Thomas International Regatta announce sponsors   
2014 Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race - Salt water therapy   
Soto 40 South American Tour - Coming soon   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT