sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 3, 2013 - Bulls on the handlebars
Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 3, 2013 - Bulls on the handlebars


'MRX fleet - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 3, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The ECB cut interest rates back to 0.50%, as expected, and this had the desired effect in markets with the EUR dropping back to 1.0350 and Equities recouping yesterdays losses. The language Draghi used inspired confidence in markets lead by the Banks who will have their profits enhanced by the ECB Presidents indulgence. He promised Monetary Policy will remain 'accommodative for as long as needed' and they 'will lend as much as the Banks need until mid-2014'.

This has embraced the Banks and the 'currency wars' , thus providing enormous liquidity to invest in risk markets. The US recovered all of yesterdays falls in Equities and the DOW looks set to test the 15,000. Weekly Jobless claims fell to a new low, boosting confidence for reasonable growth in the Non-Farm Payrolls tonight.

Commodity currencies rebounded after weakening in late trade yesterday. In Australia, Building Approvals fell and Chinese manufacturing PMI dipped, pushing the high yielding AUD lower but risk sentiment pushed back to 1.0250.

NZ Commodity Prices rose 23% and the KIWI managed to regain 0.8500. The Bulls have resumed control of risk markets but this is May so be prepared!

Ross 930’s - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 2, 2013

The Fed recognised 'downside risks' and pledged to continue the extreme QE policies it has maintained to stimulate the flagging economy. The Fed promised to increase and decrease as circumstances demanded but this failed to inspire equity markets. The DOW tumbled triple digits entering the month of May. The important ADP private sector jobs report fell well short of expectations, adding 110,000 Jobs, well below the 150,000.

This is a guide to the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday which has high hopes of growth but economic fundamentals have been weak despite the surge in risk appetite. Construction Spending contracted 1.7%, pouring cold water on the Housing recovery which has been the ray of hope. The EUR has been a beneficiary of the bad news from America, rising to 1.3180 and the GBP continuing to book gains trading 1.5565.

Chinese Manufacturing data disappointed, falling to 50.6 from 50.9, which does not mean a great deal but does reveal directional worries. The bad news from China has killed demand for commodities which fell across the board. This did not help the higher yielding stellar currencies that have been the darlings of the markets.

The AUD dipped back to 1.0270 and the KIWI slipped below 0.8500. Warnings bells are sounding across the risk markets despite the $3.3 Trillion Balance Sheet the Fed has accumulated, with promises of further largese.

Reckless Monetary policy to counter Fiscal ineptitude has forced Reserve Banks to extreme expansion causing bubbles and begging an explosion of deformations in Bonds and Equities. Inflationary pressures have been forgotten through measurement techniques and lapsed memories but it is there and will rise reminding economists of their worst nightmare scenario.

Phoning home after a win XL - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 1, 2013

Markets were again flat on equity markets with mixed economic data and some weaker than expected earnings results in the US.

In Europe, EU CPI contracted to 1.2% reflecting negative growth in the zone and the continuance of extended recession/depression. Employment has reached 12.1% across the single market and it is hard to move ahead with so many idle resources directly impacting the consumer. German Consumer Confidence rose to 6.2 but retail sales contracted 2.8%, so domestic demand is no saviour.

The EUR remained firm, trading 1.3150 and the GBP 1.5525, ignoring the expected cut in interest rates by the ECB.

In the US, the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose to a 7 year high of 9.3% boosting hopes of a recovery in this leading sector. Consumer Confidence was also higher, to 68.1, but this good news was dented by the Chicago Manufacturing report which plunged below 50 to 49.

Economic fundamentals continue to disappoint and technicals are now pointing to peaks in the equity markets which coincides with the month of the Bear!

Commodities remain bid and the AUD holds 1.0350 and the KIWI 0.8550. These yield driven, risk currencies will be heavily impacted by any correction in equities and commodities as safety flows to the 'Big Dollar'!

Multihull start - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 30, 2013

Equity markets continued the rally in Equities, despite the slew of weak economic data, emanating from a positive European rally. Expectations are that the ECB will cut rates to 0.5% and in addition launch in to a round of QE and an aggressive debt monitisation program. The 'currency wars' have resulted in a recovery in US and Japanese equities and the ECB are considering throwing caution to the wind.

Debt monitisation was a pre-GFC no-no for all Central Banks, as the purchase of your own Government debt to fund ever increasing deficits and debt was seen as economically corrupt. Central Bankers crossed the line and have now abandoned many of the principles of Monetary Policy previously sacrosanct.

The news from Europe should have resulted in further erosion of the value of the single currency but had the opposite effect. The EUR rallied to 1.3100, reacting to the rise in risk appetite and boosted by an increase in commodity demand. The GBP held steady at 1.5480 and all looks positive across Europe with a Government in Italy and the new pro-growth anti-austerity sentiment prevailing.

Forget the critical deficits driving debt to unserviceable levels as interest rates flooded with liquidity should allow this gross delusion to continue. US Equity markets rallied on the back of EU prospects with the S&P hitting new highs as the rally continues. Pending Home Sales rose 1.5% and this was a further sign from the market Gods to pile in!

The Dallas Fed Activity Index plunged 15.6% but this was largely ignored as Bernanke drives investment decisions in search of yield building bubbles. Economic fundamentals have all pointed in the opposite direction and May could be the reality check the market finally needs.

The AUD bounced on further rises in demand for commodities and traded 1.0330 with the KIWI continuing to outperform at 0.8540. Scary times with frenzied yield investment and unprecedented technical levels.

Multihull start - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 29, 2013

US GDP data frightened many equity investors as markets fell flat. First quarter growth in the US was 0.4% and an annualised rate of 2.5% below the expected 3%. The news was not surprising as economic fundamentals have been weak all year despite the much vaunted 'housing recovery!'

Data will be out this coming week placing some doubt on market forecasts in the leading indicator that is housing.

This coming week will look closely at this and pay close attention to the Fed's rate decision and the ECB, who are expected to cut rates as Europe continues to battle recession. The EUR held above 1.3000 and the GBP looks set to test 1.5500! Risk appetite has fallen recently despite the continuing flood of liquidity being pumped into the US, Japan and the EC.

The major employment reports will also be released in the US which will probably confirm the stagnation in the worlds largest economy. Commodities remain bid supporting the AUD at 1.0275 but this will be vulnerable to any major equity correction in May!.

The KIWI continues to gain support and has become a market darling trading up around the 0.8500 but this too will suffer uncertainty in Equities and risk markets!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=109068

7:40 PM Thu 2 May 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

02 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 2, 2013 - Unimpressive largesse
01 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 1, 2013 - KIWI in for a caning?
01 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 30, 2013 - Euro defies gravity
29 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 29, 2013 - KIWI market darling
27 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 26, 2013 - Poms avoid a bath
24 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 24, 2013 - Twitter hack strikes
23 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 23, 2013 - Bulls try hard
21 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 20, 2013 - Week closes quietly
19 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 19, 2013 - Equities tumble more
18 Apr 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: April 18, 2013 - Risk appetite wanes
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

Volvo Ocean Race: Blogs from the Boats - Leg 1, Day 8 plus Videos *Feature by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.nz/com
Several of the On Board Reporters aboard, provide their unique views of Leg 1, Day 8 of the Volvo Ocean Race - in text, images and video. Catch a birthday at sea on board Team Brunel, and unravel the fishing net with Team SCA Hear and see how the crews coped with the front that came through in the nigh ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Dongfeng consolidates lead on Day 8 *Feature by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
After cutting between the Cape Verde islands, separating from the rest of the Volvo Ocean Race fleet, Chinese entry, Dongfeng gained an initial significant lead, which they are in the process of consolidating. One routing option for the then race leader Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing, gave the team the option of cutting inside the island group, they are close to the optimum course for Fernando off Brazil ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 - If only it were that easy. Amazingly we did manage to replace the rudder and regain first position amongst the fleet however just hours afterwards, navigator Pascal Bidégorry was faced with an important strategic decision. ... [more]  

Ian Moore, navigator on Cookson 50, Mascalzone Latino, is no stranger to the Rolex Middle Sea Race, this is his fourth and Ian was part of the winning crew on Bryon Ehrhart's TP52, Lucky in 2010. Ian describes the tactical nuances of the first night at sea. ... [more]  

Top videographer and photographer, John Navas, was on the water for the final day of the Farr 40 Worlds being sailed on San Francisco. ... [more]  

The brilliant conditions of last week’s opening race of the season were duplicated today when the Australian 18 Footers League’s Major A. Frizelle Trophy race was sailed in a 20–knot North East wind on Sydney Harbour. Current JJ Giltinan champion Gotta Love It 7 team of Seve Jarvin, Sam Newton and Scott Babbage showed why they are the world’s best team. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race - The fleet has finally left the West African Coast. They are now in the trade winds, making the westerly course across the Atlantic Ocean to FernandoThey will find the Cape Verde Islands in the way and that will cause some issues of navigation. ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - It was a light wind, big wave finish at ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao as the medallists were decided across the six fleets competing on the waters of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Sailing Competition. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Farr 40 World Championship - In life, timing is everything. And, after seven years in the Farr 40 class, the timing was right for New York financier Alex Roepers to achieve a long-held goal of winning the Rolex Farr 40 World Championship. ... [more]  

Watchstanders at Coast Guard Sector Hampton Roads received a report from a concerned friend at 10:30 p.m., Friday stating the two men had departed on a planned 20-minute trip, but had been gone for approximately two hours. The reporting source also stated that the men did not have radios or cell phones aboard. ... [more]  

The Soto 40 fleet that competes in the Off Valparaíso Race was able to complete only one race in a day characterized by a lack of wind. Today’s winner was Horacio Pavez’s Mitsubishi. Eduardo Souza Ramos’ Phoenix achieved a fourth position in the race and continues leading the overall, with only two points less than Jorge Araneda’s Santander. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Welcome to Al's Ocean Cafe by Brian Carlin, Team Vestas Wind
On Board Reporter, Brian Carlin - (from Ireland, where else?) gives a quick tour of his below decks domain aboard Team Vestas Wind. As On Board Reporter, he gets to run the cafe aboard the Swedish flagged round the world racer. You don't need to have a sense of humour to sail aboard, but it certainly helps. ... [more]  

The Royal Bermuda Yacht Club has announced that the Argo Group Gold Cup is still set to sail, albeit on a compressed schedule, starting Wednesday, October 22. Using the one-day-delay plan announced last Wednesday, the Argo Group Gold Cup will be compressed to five days of racing and organizers will take advantage of the fine weather expected after Gonzalo. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race: Dongfeng regains lead after incident packed Day 7 *Feature by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz
The Chinese flagged entry, Dongfeng Race Team has regained the lead at the end of Day 7 in the Volvo Ocean Race. Course routing from Predictwind shows that the race leader is just five days away from the turning point of Fernanado, Brazil. Includes latest 'Inside Track' video ... [more]  

Uncut video of Dongfeng Race Team replacing their rudder at night, after collision with an underwater object while leading Leg of the Volvo Ocean Race. What makes the change even more remarkable was that it was undertaken at night. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica bounces back by Amory Ross, Team Alvimedica
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Day Seven onboard Team Alvimedica. There’s nothing like filling the void of a difficult day with some trade wind sailing. Yesterday was a tough one: we came out on the losing end of quite a few gambles and fell far off the lead pack, but the boys have bounced back well and the mood on deck in these near-perfect conditions has returned to one of humor and laughs. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Day Seven onboard Team SCA. There's an age old saying: expect the unexpected. It pretty much sums up offshore sailing. However, there is also a degree of dealing with the expected. And there is a slight dance to be had-- to not be too shocked by either spectrum of a situation, and to handle all events with grace and control. ... [more]  

Thousands of spectators lined the Valletta Waterfront to witness the start of the 35th Rolex Middle Sea Race. 122 yachts started the race, a new record for the Mediterranean classic offshore race. Under blue skies and brilliant sunshine, the international fleet of yachts from 24 different countries set off on the 608 nautical mile race. ... [more]  

It was a light wind, big wave finish at ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao as the medallists were decided across the six fleets competing on the waters of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Sailing Competition. Byron Kokkalanis (GRE) had wrapped up gold in the Men’s RS:X the day prior but intriguing battles for gold across the remaining fleets played out in a tense day of competition. ... [more]  

At 0210 UTC in the Volvo Ocean Race, Dongfeng Race Team hit an unknown object in the Atlantic Ocean just off the coast of Africa and broke their rudder. This resulted in the team performing an emergency rudder replacement, a difficult operation in the pitch black of night, in less than two hours. ... [more]  

Despite the leaderboard showing more spread in the fleet, the www.predictwind.com!Predictwind!new routing function shows that the fist six boats will round Fernando within two hours of each other. Given that the boats have yet to cross through the Doldrums for the first time, indicates that the race between the seven one-designs is still wide open. ... [more]  

Dongfeng Race Team hit hit an unidentified object, at 0210UTC on Saturday. The impact broke one of their two rudders, and it has been swapped out. The downtime for repairs cost the Chinese team their lead in the race. It is reported that they were sailing again at speeds of 20kts after 30 minutes of downtime. ... [more]  

2014 Rolex Farr 40 World Championship - The breeze that usually makes San Francisco such a popular place for sailors was noticeably absent for the penultimate day of competition at the Rolex Farr 40 World Championship. A low pressure system had siphoned most of the air off the Bay, and with the fleet drifting around on the Berkeley Circle for several hours ... [more]  

The Soto 40s were back on the scene today with the Off Valparaíso Race, first stage of the Soto 40 South American Tour. In the first day of competition the boats completed three races and Eduardo Souza Ramos’ Phoenix achieved top position overall with six points, followed by Jorge Araneda’s Santander, Jaime Charad’s Apolonia and Dag Von Appen’s Itaú, all of them with 10 points. ... [more]  

On day two of the 2014 Sunfish World Championship, Argentina's Francisco Renna took control with four bullets and defended his big lead on the final day. Nine races were held. Jean Paul de Trazegnies of Pero was second. ... [more]  

Six days into the Volvo Ocean Race, and the sailors can still see each other, creeping alongside the Western Sahara sand dunes. It’s stressful. Dongfeng Race Team have held their lead since yesterday morning. But Team Alvimedica, Team Brunel, Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing and Team Vestas Wind are only two to three miles behind the Chinese boat. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15, Day Six onboard Team Alvimedica. Checking in from the Volvo 65 World Championships. It’s unbelievable, really—we have been short course racing these boats ever since we left Alicante. Cautiously cruising down the coast of Africa, close to the barren beaches of Western Sahara and Mauratania, Will and Charlie continue to place a huge emphasis on fleet positioning. ... [more]  

We sail close to the coast of Africa just after five in the afternoon in the Volvo Ocean Race. The sun is already low and about five miles to port are the endless sandy plains of the sizzling hot Western Sahara. Together with the other six ships we sail incredibly close to each other. After five days we are still within striking distance. ... [more]  

I’ll be really honest, we’ve had better days in this Volvo Ocean Race. At 13:15UTC we received our afternoon position report (aka 'scheds') and it did not have good news. 'We went from hero to zero, well not quite zero' Libby the navigator explained. ... [more]  

The Beijing 2008 Olympic legacy lives on at the venue of the Olympic Sailing Competition, Qingdao. ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao is just one of many events that see the eyes of the sailing world shift focus on China. ... [more]  

The wait is almost over. After almost 20 years, the PWA are preparing to return to La Point de la Torche, France, for a blockbuster grand slam. From the 18th to the 26th October the most radical male wave sailors, together with the fastest men and women in the world, will be battling it out for the penultimate time this season as the 2014 PWA World Tour heads towards its climax. ... [more]  

The penultimate day of the ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao saw Byron Kokkalanis (GRE) seal an early gold in the Men's RS:X whilst the remaining fleets teed themselves up for an exciting finale. Kokkalanis has an unassailable 22 point lead after notching up three straight wins and goes into the final day with the pressure off. ... [more]  

Top videographer and photographer, John Navas, was on the water for the second day of the Farr 40 Worlds being sailed on San Francisco. ... [more]  

Day 5 of the Chris Benz Lüderitz Speed Challenge: 4 more records!
Volvo Ocean Race: Coastal racing at its best - Leg 1, Day 5
Chris Poole new number one Open Match Racer in U.S.
Rolex Farr 40 World Champs - Plenty leads as Struntje Light impresses
2014 Soto 40 South American Tour - Back in action
Volvo Ocean Race - Mail arrival brings excitement for Team SCA + Video
Volvo Ocean Race - Jens Dolmer getting restless onboard Team Brunel
Volvo Ocean Race - Too close for comfort as fleet pushes on + Video
Foils or not? Explanations from IMOCA Class President Jean Kerhoas
Ben Ainslie's Olympic Finn sails are up for auction
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica goes to school
Volvo Ocean Race - Intensity level rises for Dongfeng Race Team
China Cup Regatta - Olympic medallists and offshore legends to race
St. Barth Cata Cup - Friendly US rivalry on the Island
ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - Tight and tactical racing + Video
Farr 40 Worlds: Day 1 Image and Video gallery
Team Ulrikkeholm new WIM Series champion
Podium finish in sight for top Alpari Tour teams
Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta: A rousing success with over 50 teams
Rolex Middle Sea Race 2014 - Taller than the Burj Khalifa
100 foot limit raised for 2015 Rolex Fastnet Race   
2014 Rolex Middle Sea Race - Shockwave prepares for race   
2014 Rolex Farr 40 World Championship - Land of plenty   
Volvo Ocean Race: Blogs from the Boats - Leg 1, Day 4 plus Videos   
Old Pulteney, US Sailing host third Annual Maritime Heroes Award   
Argo Group Gold Cup - Hurricane Gonzalo delays start   
Volvo Ocean Race: Life at the Extreme - first episode of weekly video   
Volvo Ocean Race: Passing inside the Canary Islands *Feature   
Volvo Ocean Race - You think the fight is over? Think again   
Volvo Ocean Race - Quite the day for Team SCA   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Brunel prepares for possible gale force winds   
Volvo Ocean Race - Like ducks in a row, we march south   
Sunfish World Championship - Big breeze on day 2   
IMOCA Class General Assembly wraps up in Nantes   
ISAF Match Race Rankings - 15 October 2014   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Qingdao - Tight battles and close knit racing   
Busan Cup Women’s Int'l Match Race - Palludan and Macgregor leading   
Star Sailors League Finals 2014 - Giles Scott makes Star debut   
Volvo Ocean Race: Leaders play swapsie along Moroccan coast   
The B&G Report: Volvo Ocean Race - And they're off - Leg 1, Week 1 *Feature   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT