sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 16, 2012 - Overhanging cliff
Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 16, 2012 - Overhanging cliff

'Image of the Day 29er in full flight at Sail Sydney'    Craig Greenhill Saltwater Images ©

Collinson FX market Commentary: December 16, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets slipped again under the weight of the ongoing Fiscal Cliff fiasco.

Brinksmanship continues with the President playing his hand taking confidence from the election as do the Republicans in Congress. This is a Political game being played by Obama in an attempt to break the Republicans through acceptance of tax hikes. The situation is desperate and needs to address the spiralling deficit and debt.

The President advocates increased revenues and the Republican decreased spending. It is the Government behemoth that needs to be slashed with expenditure out of control and being funded by debt. The EU increased tax revenues by a ratio of 2:1 over spending cuts and that has plunged them into recession so there should be a serious message in that for the Democrats.

This overshadowed the good economic news with Chinese Manufacturing improving along with US industrial Production. Consumer Prices fell suggesting a problem seeping into the all important consumer sector. The EUR spiked to 1.3150 after QE4 (Infinity) continued the destruction of the reserve currency.

Surprisingly the AUD did not fare that well trading 1.0550 and the KIWI 0.8450. This suggests some underlying domestic concerns as Global Recession would impact demand and thus commodity prices and terms of trade.

Next week will have a close look at Housing in the US and the important GDP number tracking Growth in the worlds largest economy.

A bowman’s job is never done! RNZYS Wednesday night race -  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: December 15, 2012

Global conditions continue to deteriorate with S&P downgrading the UK from stable to negative.

EU Finance Ministers released nearly EUR$50 Billion in Bailout funds to Greece, which will pay the bill for the next few months. The price being paid for security of the single currency is immense and growing at an exponential rate. The marginal tipping point is nigh and this could spiral out of control in the New Year. The answer, according to the Fed, is printing more money than the eye can see.

The gross expansion of the Money Supply and erosion in the value of the US Dollar and US wealth, is a response considered necessary as Politicians dally on Fiscal responsibility. US Retail Sales improved 0.3% and Weekly Jobless Claims fell in the US, but Fiscal Cliff negotiations overwhelmed any economic positives.

Speaker Boehner enunciated the lack of serious consideration by the Whitehouse in negotiations with advocation of revenue grabs and little in the way of spending cuts. It is fairly obvious where the problem lies when you look at the deficit and debt. It is not a revenue problem as Government spending approaches 25% of GDP!

The shallow and brief surge in confidence from QE Infinity soon evaporated with the reality of the situation hitting home. The AUD slipped back and looks to test 1.0500 on the downside with the KIWI just under 0.8400.

Gus having a moment - http://cherrieowensmith.photomerchant.net/ - Ka Sail Vic Moth Grand Prix – Round 3  Cherrie Owen-Smith   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: December 13, 2012

The big news of the day was the Fed's moves to extend and expand QE infinity. The Fed has decided to replace Operation Twist with further Security purchases to the tune of $45 Billion/month.

This is in addition to QE Infinity which was $40 Billion/month. Bernanke also decided to link the QE to Inflation and Unemployment targets of 2.5% and 6.5% respectively. The immediate effect of this plan is to expand the Balance Sheet to an unprecedented $4 Trillion! Markets, already flooded with cash, reacted accordingly with equities rising and the Dollar falling.

The EUR rallied to 1.3080 and the GBP 1.6150. The Unemployment target may lock the Fed into permanent money printing which will have disastrous repercussions long term. Bernanke has succeeding in eroding US wealth as the value of the USD has been completely undermined and begs for further adjustment. The sheer volume of liquidity has left little alternative for investors who receive nothing from interest rate investments and pushes them to the Equity bubble.

Commodities naturally increase as they are measured in Dollar terms which is being flushed down the toilet. This supported further rallies in the AUD to 1.0550 and the KIWI up to 0.8430. Equities, Commodities and currency moves should all be taken in perspective relative to the mortally wounded reserve currency.

Confidence surges but for all the wrong reasons. The Fed's policy is unprecedented and as a result of the dire state of the US economy so is this a reason to take risk?

Lahana was second over the line today - 2012 SOLAS Big Boat Challenge  Andrea Francolini_©  

Collinson FX market Commentary: December 12, 2012
Equities continued the strong Christmas rally that began last week with confidence rising in Europe and the US.

In Germany the important ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose 6.9 after large recent losses and low expectations. Eurogeddon seems less important now Christmas is upon us and Politicians disappear to important domestic matters.

In the US, the Fiscal Cliff loses emphasis as boredom sets in with Political antics rather than higher expectations. Leave the leaders to it as an unfavourable solution will be found, however unattractive. The US Trade deficit continued to increase and small business optimism also fell.

The EUR regained 1.3000 as confidence returns and the GBP 1.6115.

Storm clouds gather in Australia with Business confidence unexpectedly collapsing from -1 to -9. This can be seen as a direct result of deteriorating economic conditions with rising costs and increased regulation. This failed to impact the currency which rose to 1.0525 with global confidence.

The KIWI surged to 0.8385 as Homes Sales rose 24.1% and QV House Prices by 5.7%! This is a product of demand and low interest rates coupled with exhorbitantly high building costs rather than improving economic conditions. Political developments will continue to provide direction to markets.

Optimists head back up the ramp - Wakatere Boat Club  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: December 11, 2012

Markets continued to rally, following last week's gains, with no bad news to drag them lower.

The 'Fiscal Cliff' negotiations continued to be aired publicly and with a growing feeling that Republicans will concede the momentum to the Democrats and allow tax rates to rise. There seems to be no serious attempt to address the budget/debt blowouts that are spiralling out of control. The past form of Obama is to come to a last minute deal which will be a desperate compromise and do little to address the fundamental issues.

This crisis will be averted until the next one arrives and establishes a trend of lurching from one crises to the next. Solving none but playing politics and winning. The day of reckoning is nigh! In Europe, the technocrat PM Monti has announced his resignation with another election to be called. The Lazarus, Silvio Burlesconi, is set to make yet another return!

The EUR was not aided by the news with the single currency slipping to 1.2930 and the GBP 1.6065. German Trade data reflected growth with both exports and Imports rising although Italian GDP continued to contract immersed in recession. Chinese Trade remained strong but the rate of growth slipped with demand dragging exports back to 2.9% from previous 11.6% growth. Japanese GDP contracted 0.9% pointing to a slow down in Asia which will impact commodity demand.

This failed to hit the AUD, which is testing 1.0500 once again and the KIWI that continues to defy gravity, trading just over 0.8300. Markets will continue to focus on Political developments in Europe and the US as negative data is now expected and has little impact on equities, commodities or currencies.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=104726

10:30 AM Sat 15 Dec 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

14 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 14, 2012 - Reality check
13 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 13, 2012 - Confidence surges
12 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 12, 2012 - Xmas rally stays
11 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 11, 2012 - Market rally
09 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 7, 2012 - NZD breaks 83c mark
06 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 6, 2012 - No change in NZ
05 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 5, 2012 - Equity markets flat
04 Dec 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 4, 2012 - Good news ex China
30 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 30, 2012 - EUR Markets quiet
29 Nov 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: November 29, 2012 - Market windshifts
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

2014 12 Metre North American Championships - Two days of a northerly (first strong, then light) and one day of a building southwesterly put six 12 Metre yachts to the test at their North American Championships, which were held off Newport, R.I. over September 26-28. Gunther Buerman’s (Newport, R.I.) KZ-3 and Dennis Williams’ (Hobe Sound, Fla.) Victory ’83 defended their titles ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at Les Voiles de Saint Tropez on the French Riveria , and provided this gallery of images of the classics and other yachts racing ... [more]  

2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup - Melbourne - Don’t forget to enter the ISAF Sailing World Cup – Melbourne. There are only two days left to take advantage of the discounted entry price offer. ... [more]  

After Gmunden, Austria, in 2011 and Cala de' Medici, Italy, in 2012 and after a pained second place, same points with the Portogues 'Credite Egs' in Portosin, Spain, last year, the Italian crew coming from Puglia 'Euz II Monella Vagabonda', with Sandro Montefusco at the helm and his brother Paolo as a tactician, confirms for the third time the Platu 25 World Championship title. ... [more]  

Carlo Borlenghi was on deck for the first day of competition at Les Voiles de Saint-Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on site for day one of racing at the 2014 Les Voiles de Saint Tropez to capture these images. ... [more]  

The final day of the 2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship ended up being a half day of sailing due to a complete shutdown of the wind. However, the fleet completed enough races to count Gold Round Robin 3 and crown Ladies and Gentlemen as the back-to-back Team Racing Champions. ... [more]  

Michigan, the Great Lakes State, was a fitting location as The National Sailing Hall of Fame (NSHOF) gathered for the fourth time in the organization’s history to fulfill its mission to recognize Americans who have made outstanding contributions to the sport of sailing. ... [more]  

The International Sailing Federation (ISAF) has published guidelines for candidates bidding to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship. Bids to host the 2016 ISAF Youth Match Racing Worlds must be received by Friday 24 October 2014. ... [more]  

The onboard medic-sailors competing in the upcoming Volvo Ocean Race have completed their last medical training. More than a basic first aid refresher course, the mandatory medical training each Volvo Ocean Race team had to carry out in the last few months and days are key to survival while at sea. ... [more]  

Erik Simonson was on the water at 2014 Melges 20 Pacific Coast Championship to capture these images. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Light air ruled the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada—and so did Rod Wilmer and Terry McLaughlin on Mandate. ... [more]  

The Extreme Sailing Series event in Istanbul seems to have only just finished, but already the containers are in the Ville de Nice set to gear up for this weeks penultimate regatta. Peter Burling and Blair Tuke are back onboard this week, fresh from their 49er World Championship win and looking to make it two wins from two events for Emirates Team New Zealand on the ?Extreme Sailing Series ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - In Sunday’s final matches in the Buddy Melges Challenge, Stephanie Roble and Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen showed the crowds on the bluffs of Lake Michigan how top class match racing should be sailed. It took five absolutely thrilling matches for the Danish crew to secure their first WIM Series event victory since last summer’s Danish Open. ... [more]  

America's Cup: Oracle Team USA's AC72 takes to the streets by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz
Oracle Team USA's winning AC72 takes to the streets of San Francisco, one year on from the Team's successful Defence of the America's Cup. This week the AC72 catamaran Oracle Team USA raced to victory is going to be a special guest at Oracle OpenWorld 2014 in San Francisco. ... [more]  

Matches between the world’s top two match racing skippers are always aggressive affairs on the Alpari World Match Racing Tour (AWMRT). In the pre-start of the first match, Canfield stuck two penalties on Williams, leaving the British boat playing catch-up. ... [more]  

Pantaenius, the world’s leading specialist yacht insurance company, has been at the forefront of yacht insurance for more than 40 years, earning a reputation for transparency and commitment to customer service that provides round-the-clock international support and reliable, speedy claims settlement. ... [more]  

What a great day for kiting at Kite Foil Gold Cup Australia 2014! 10-15 knot North Easterly and slight seas. Kites zooming around like supersonic mosquitoes but mosquitoes buzz whereas foiling kites are completely silent! ... [more]  

At the time that we are writing this, it is almost exactly a week since the first race took place at Wakatere Boating Club in New Zealand, followed by hundreds of races across the globe that we have been told attracted record numbers of sailors to your clubs ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - It was a picturesque day on Marblehead Harbor with plenty of sunshine for the second day of the U.S. Team Racing Championship. Once again, a lack of consistent breeze made for a challenging day for the Race Committee, umpires and competitors. Nevertheless, PRO Susie Schneider and her team were able to complete Round Robin One ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Saturday’s racing in the Buddy Melges Challenge on Lake Michigan, USA, saw more breeze than ever before during the week. Stephanie Roble used her local knowledge to show a clean sheet for the day, going in to Sunday’s conclusion with a one – zero lead over Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen in the final, sailed as a best of five match series. ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - A balanced field and limited racing usually leads to close races and a crowded leaderboard. This was the situation on Eagle Mountain Lake for the last day at the U.S. Adult Championship, hosted by Fort Worth Boat Club. ... [more]  

2014 J/105 North American Championship - Five races are now in the books, and just three points separate the top three teams at the J/105 North American Championship hosted by Royal Canadian Yacht Club in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. ... [more]  

Photographer Eugenia Bakunova of leading Russian website www.mainsail.ru was on the water at the 36th edition of the Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai, and provided this gallery of images of the classics racing off Cannes. ... [more]  

Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai: Cannes at its best by Eugenia Bakunova, www.mainsail.ru
The 36th edition of the Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai drew to a close on Saturday. Photographer Eugenia Bakunova was on the water at the 36th edition of the Régates Royales – Trophée Panerai, and provided this second gallery of images of the classics racing off Cannes. ... [more]  

David Gilmour was the only skipper to keep a clean sheet in today’s light-air action at the Dutch Match Cup in Lelystad. Team Gilmour swept aside their fellow Western Australians in a 3-0 Quarter Final against Keith Swinton and Team Alpari FX. The young Aussies then took the first match of their Semi-Final against the reigning ISAF World Champions, Taylor Canfield and US One. ... [more]  

Ian Williams and his GAC Pindar crew responded to a challenging qualifying session on Friday in Lelystad, to win a tense quarter-final against Phil Robertson (WAKA Racing), 3-2 and book a fifth consecutive semi-final in the Alpari World Match Racing Tour at the Dutch Match Cup. ... [more]  

The 44th Hobie 16 North American championships concluded on Friday with Jason Hess and Irene Abascal from Club Los Sauces, Guatemala taking the title. Mark and Grace Modderman from Long Branch, New Jersey followed in seond place and Pedro Colon and Monica Cabrera from Puerto Rico in third winning the tie break over Dan Borg and Liana Giovana from Canada. ... [more]  

The seven One Design VOR 65s were built by a consortium led by Green Marine in the UK. The first of those for the Team SCA women wad delivered in October 2013, the last was supplied to Team Vestas Wind in August 2014. ... [more]  

Over the last year we have interviewed Knut Frostad, the CEO of the Volvo Ocean Race four times, at times the stress has shown but yesterday just eleven days before the start of the 2014-2015 Race, he was like a different person, when we met with him again, at Volvo Ocean race headquarters portside in Alicante ... [more]  

NBC Sports Network, which was critically acclaimed for its 2013 coverage of the 34th America’s Cup, has signed on to provide full broadcast coverage in the U.S. of the 12th edition of the Volvo Ocean Race, the world’s premier offshore sailing race. Outside Television will also air complete TV programming – in addition to full digital coverage – of the nine-month long race from October 2014-June 20 ... [more]  

2014 J/24 World Championship - With just a few points between Will Welles Cougar (USA) and Mauricio Santa Cruz Bruschetta (BRA) there was no room for error in the final two races of the 2014 J/24 World Championship hosted by Sail Newport. ... [more]  

2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Friday’s racing offered even less breeze than the previous days of the Buddy Melges Challenge. Lotte Meldgaard Pedersen won all her four matches of the day, to win the round-robin stage and secure her slot in the semi finals. ... [more]  

2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 3
2014 U.S. Team Racing Championship - Day 1 + Video
America's Cup: Then and now - Coutts on why Oracle won, and the Venue
Byte CII World Sailing Championship comes to Royal Varuna, Thailand
Dutch Match Cup: Canfield wins Qualifying, six set for Quarters battle
12 Metre North Americans - A blast from the America’s Cup past
2015 ISAF Sailing World Cup qualification system published
Volvo Ocean Race: Mapfre named as Spanish team sponsor + Video
Extreme Sailing Series returns to Nice for the penultimate Act of 2014
ISAF invites bids for 2016 Women's Match Racing World Championship
2014 ISAF Sailing World Cup, Melbourne - Teaming up
Mascalzone Latino Jr. named 2014 Melges 20 European Ranking Champion
2014 Buddy Melges Challenge - Le Berre keeps winning in Sheboygan
Hobie 16 Open North American Champ and Pan Am Games Qualifier - Day 4
2014 U.S. Adult Sailing Championship - Day 2
J/105 North Americans - Wilmer and McLaughlin master light conditions
J/24 World Championship - Will Welles hangs on going into last day
Open 2.4mR World Championship on the horizon
Bart's Bash - Top photographers gain special entry
Platu 25 Worlds - EUZ II Monella Vagabonda is still leading in France
St. Barth Cata Cup - Olympic duel on the island   
Dutch Match Cup - High winds and big wipeouts in Lelystad   
Route du Rhum - Yann Guichard to sail Spindrift 2 solo   
Mirabaud Yacht Racing Image - Best sailing photo of the year sought   
Volvo Ocean Race - Yann Riou, getting you up close and personal   
Marseille One Design concludes GC32 racing season + Video   
World Yacht Racing Forum - Seventh edition to take place in Barcelona   
Record number of entries for the Sailing Champions League   
Platu 25 World Championship - Euz II Monella Vagabonda still leading   
Rolex Middle Sea Race Record - A possibility for Esimit Europa 2   
Richmond Yacht Club's International 14 Nationals: Return of 14 footers   
Buddy Melges Challenge - Le Berre leading, undefeated, in Sheboygan   
2014 J/24 World Championship - Will Welles holds advantage   
Etchells Lobster Bowl Regatta - Rob Hitchcock overall winner   
US Wabbit Nationals at Richmond YC   
YCs of Long Beach Charity Regatta - Local area sailors turn out   
U.S. Team Racing Championship to serve as Qualifier for ISAF Worlds   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Final - Champions confirm Abu Dhabi attendance   
Dutch Match Cup - Top three keep perfect score   
Second Star Sailors League grand finale to take place in Nassau   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT