sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 23, 2012 - AUS's Perfect Storm
Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 23, 2012 - AUS's Perfect Storm

'Image of the Day Practice day, August 21st 2012, AC45 World Series San Francisco.'    Sander van der Borch / Artemis Racing ©

Collinson FX market Commentary: August 23, 2012

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Fed's Minutes were released and indicated that QE3 may be 'warranted fairly soon' if economic conditions did not improve. The FOMC Minutes cited the European Debt/Deficit crises and the corresponding slowdown in demand spreading to China and Asia.

This was exemplified with the rising Japanese Trade deficit. Warning bells were ringing when this trade deficit was announced reflecting the serious nature of falling global demand in the worlds third biggest economy and former trade surplus superstar!.

In Europe markets await the outcome of the Merkel/Hollande summit and the response to requests from Greek PM, Samaras, for 'more air to breathe'! The suggestion of further stimulus has driven the Dollar lower and correspondingly real value commodities up. The surprise was the marginal reaction of the Equity markets who would ordinarily explode on the prospect of further Central Bank intervention.

The rally was marginal reflecting the markets expectations and the real effect of security purchases to the nth degree. Bernanke will be loath to intervene in the lead up to the Presidential elections. The EUR regained some ground to 1.2520 with the dollars reaction.

The US Existing Home Sales rose 2.3% but weekly Mortgages fell 7.4%. The AUD reacted positively rising back above 1.0500 after some disturbing investment news. BHP shelved a $30 Billion mining project at Olympic Dam,SA shadowing the much vaunted investment pipeline. Commodity prices and the strong AUD combined with limited Capital and a uncertain political climate with rising tax costs have lead to a perfect storm for mining investment.

This is the single biggest worry for the Australian economy.

The KIWI managed to move to 0.8125 pushed by the weaker USD. Eyes will be focused on the European political developments and the repercussions they will have on Global markets.


Collinson FX market Commentary: August 22, 2012

In a world where Apple has become the biggest company in US history you have to wonder? A company that produces the iPhone and iPad is selling so many, at such a huge margin, that they are now worth more than many small countries. The company is beloved by stock holders but is symbolic of the current downturn in the US.

The brains trust reside in the bankrupt California but all production occurs in China. Sales are global and therefore revenues remain global due to the US tax system. This is indicative of the 'new normal', where growth and revenue occur offshore and the static domestic growth of Western Nations continues to be mired in socialised debt and budgetary crises.

The only respite is further Central bank intervention in expanding liquidity to the banks who refuse to stimulate the small/medium business but rather invest in the impending bubble that is treasuries! The monetary stimulus is eroding citizens wealth in real terms at a dramatic rate but I guess that is the plan. The EUR rallied to 1.2480 after concerns wavered in Europe as Merkel appointee to the ECB, Asmussen, endorsed an unlimited ECB Bond Buying program.

The sheer desperation of unlimited purchase of debt is astounding. It will solve the problem short-term but builds an almost insurmountable problem down the track. Some one has to pay the interest on the debt when budgets can not meet current obligations?!Fitch has warned of further downgrades after rallies in equities hit year highs on the back of monetary stimulus prospects. A removal of cancerous cells, in the form of Greece, may well provide some support for the single currency but that is assuming that Spain and Italy do not need a cull.

The GBP broke out of technical levels on the upside after the Bank of England endorsed a steady interest rate policy.

The RBA reiterated a steady as she goes policy with steady growth and inflation. The need to intervene is not pressing with monetary policy soft providing a surety for AUD holders at 1.0485. The KIWI traded around 0.8100 despite weak Credit Card expenditure and a flight of citizens to the Australian mining sector.

The Fed minutes may provide action but focus will increase on the central bank conference at Jackson Hole!

Last previous all-woman Volvo Ocean Race crew, Amer Sports Too skipper Lisa McDonald 2001-02 Volvo Ocean Race  Carlo Borlenghi   Click Here to view large photo


Collinson FX market Commentary: August 21, 2012

Mixed messages from Europe sent stocks lower although quiet economic data releases restricted moves. The Bundesbank has reiterated their reservations with regards the ECB's intended Bond buying program.

The reality is that Germany becomes the lender of last resort to a spiralling out of control Europe. A story was also circulating of the ECB imposing a cap on EU Bonds, would have enormous implications in terms of free market operation with far reaching unintended consequences. Merkel meets Hollande Thursday so this may have an impact as they mutually attempt to reassure markets. The EUR has traded sideways at 1.2350 and the GBP reaching 1.5700.

In the US, the Chicago Fed's Manufacturing Index slid lower but the lack of a dramatic collapse in the economy prevents the Fed intervening. Markets will look to the EU Debt/Deficit crises developments for direction and the Fed minutes later in the week.

The AUD stabilised to trade 1.0450 with political rumours swirling of an early election driven by a failure in the Budget surplus and an avalanche of pressure from failed economic policies. A look at the RBA minutes may give insight to the Central Banks view of economic conditions.

The KIWI also held below 0.8100 with not much going on domestically. Central Banks and leading politicians will provide market direction with technicals pointing to substantial resistance on the upside!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=101255

7:37 PM Wed 22 Aug 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

22 Aug 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 22, 2012 - Apple symbolic
21 Aug 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 21, 2012 - Mixed messages
18 Aug 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 18, 2012 - Markets flatline
17 Aug 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 17, 2012 - No surprises
16 Aug 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: August 16, 2012 - Bad news turns good
28 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 27, 2012 - KIWI above 0.8100
25 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 25, 2012 - Negative credit watch
24 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 24, 2012 - Euros hit panic button
23 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 23, 2012 - KIWI drops under 0.80c
20 Jul 2012  Collinson FX Market Commentary: July 20, 2012 - The economic paradox
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

The Chinese entry Dong looks set to create sailing sailing history when she finishes first on Leg 3 of the Volvo Ocean Race, Sanya in two days time. Includes video Currently Dongfeng is 250 nm to the finish line in Sanya and the chasing pack with ADOR ahead in second place 55+ nm behind the Chinese team. ... [more]  

The first of the iconic Great Capes has been passed in the Barcelona World Race with Cheminées Poujoulat rounding the Cape of Good Hope earlier this morning. Bernard Stamm and Jean Le Cam passed 20°E around 400 miles south of Cape Agulhas – the southernmost tip of Africa – at 0935am (UTC) today and have begun the Indian Ocean leg of their race around Antarctica. ... [more]  

The Classic 18fters were racing again on Saturday on Sydney harbour. Michael Chittenden caught the action from a shore vantage point. ... [more]  

When race leader Dongfeng rounded Singapore 60+ nautical miles ahead of the chasing pack, it looked like the final 1200 miles of Leg three would be a procession but over the last day, the Volvo Ocean race leg from Abu Dhabi to Sanya China appears to have tightened incredibly. ... [more]  

US Sailing and Rolex USA announced last week that the 2014 Rolex Yachtswoman of the Year is Stephanie Roble. Her accomplishments on the water last year were recognized by the selection panel for her versatility; her accomplishments as a skipper and as a crew; and her competitive successes on a variety of platforms, sailing against both men and women. ... [more]  

Barcelona World Race - The first of the Great Capes is fast-approaching, with the leading boats in the Barcelona World Race expected to pass the longitude of the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of South Africa tomorrow. As they pass 20°E, the Atlantic Ocean will deliver its verdict – did Cheminées Poujoulat’s east-bound track or Neutrogena’s southerly gamble pay off? ... [more]  

Mardi Gras may not be for another month but US Sailing’s National Sailing Programs Symposium (NSPS) kicked it off early for Oakcliff Sailing this year. This evening, Oakcliff received The Captain Joe Prosser Award, given to an organization that has made an exemplary contribution toward improving the quality and safety in the training or instruction of sailors. ... [more]  

The 35th St. Maarten Heineken Regatta has already attracted entries from 20 different countries: Antigua, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Puerto Rico, Russia, St.Maarten, Uruguay, USA and the US Virgin Islands. ... [more]  

The world is watching. Can Dongfeng Race Team hold onto their 57 nautical miles lead to China for what will essentially be the ultimate home victory? Or will another team get desperate and make a bold decision that could cost Dongfeng their win? ... [more]  

Most of the marque classes at Quantum Key West Race Week 2015 came down to the last day of the regatta, which delivered the toughest conditions of the week. Howling winds and rough seas challenging the competitors on Friday, forcing the top contenders to raise their game in order to claim overall victory. ... [more]  

Barcelona World Race - Sport met science today on the Barcelona World Race when the pairs of skippers took the first opportunity to deploy their data monitoring Argo beacon which was given to them in Bareclona prior to the start. ... [more]  

2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - It really wasn’t our week. Two races were held today in very nice conditions and we finished third in both. Bella Mente won both races to win the class. ... [more]  

The Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series, incorporating three days of coastal racing and the Mount Gay Rum Round Barbados Race concluded last night at a sumptuous, Mount Gay Rum-fuelled prizegiving dinner and party. The final 300-mile Ocean Race to Antigua to tie up with the Superyacht Cup starts on Saturday. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on the water again today at 2015 Quantum Key West Race Week, and provided this gallery of images from day five ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2015 - With a solid 17-20 knots from the north east, reducing the possibility of a distance sapping park up, the likehood of the Leg three leader the Chinese boat Dongfeng getting the gun in Sanya just 640 nautical miles ahead continues to strengthen. ... [more]  

The 2015 ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship set to be held in Swinoujscie, Poland from 15 – 19 September 2015 Notice of Race has been released. ... [more]  

Currently doing scheduled maintenance. Some elements of site may not be visible at the moment. ... [more]  

On 2nd January 2015, Team Vestas Wind announced that skipper Chris Nicholson had been tasked to review the team during the month of January. The objective is to ensure the right team for the come back to the race, which is now, for this team, of a different nature than the scheduled original route from Alicante to Gothenburg. ... [more]  

Beau Outteridge has compiled a video of highlights and interviews from the 2015 McDougall + McConanghy Moth Worlds completed recently in Sorrento, Melbourne ... [more]  

Former Oracle Team USA team member, Matthew Mitchell has issued a media release stating that he has lodged a complaint with the International Sailing Federation over the actions of a fellow crew member, Simeon Tienpont, and inaction by the International Jury for the 34th America's Cup, in San Francisco. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on the water at 2015 Quantum Key West Race Week, and provided this gallery of images from day four. ... [more]  

2015 ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami - Along with the rest of the 848 sailors from 63 nations currently training in Florida ahead of ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami, Presented by Sunbrella (January 26-31), US Sailing Team Sperry Top-Sider athletes and coaches have entered a period of intense focus ahead of the first major Olympic and Paralympic event of 2015. ... [more]  

2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - It probably won't be a late night on Duval Street for the sailors competing on Division Two and Three at Quantum Key West Race Week 2015. After doing three races in strong winds on Thursday, there are no doubt a lot of sore muscles, aching bones and tired bodies. ... [more]  

Children’s heart health continues to benefit from Team Alvimedica’s online auction now underway for two unique experiences during the Volvo Ocean Race stopover here. The Chinese Agape Foundation Inc. will be the recipient of funds raised for these unique team experiences in Sanya, the next stopover port of the global ocean race. ... [more]  

Lauderdale Olympic Classes Regatta overall by John Payne, Fort Lauderdale
The Lauderdale Olympic Classes Regatta was held January 17-19 in the Atlantic Ocean off of Dania Beach in Ft. Lauderdale, FL. Open to Finns (it’s their Midwinter Championship), Lasers and Laser Radials, competitors came from twenty countries and Puerto Rico. They range in age from 14 to 79. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 Leg 3 update from Dongfeng Race Team: All hands on deck as Chinese crew suffer damage to their boat as the tack line of an important sail (J1) broke suddenly sending the 132 m² sail shooting up the forestay in a matter of seconds. The team have managed to set up a temporary replacement but the reality is, this is a rude awakening of how far away the finish line is. ... [more]  

The city of Cagliari , Sardinia - Italy, will inaugurate the 2015 – 2016 America's Cup World Series, the regattas preliminary to the 35th America's Cup. The event will take place in the Gulf surrounding the island's capital from June 4 to 7, 2015. ... [more]  

Based off early morning forecasts, it appeared a lay day might be in the cards for competitors at Quantum Key West Race Week 2015. Some sailors might have already been making plays to play tennis or go fishing during an hour-long dockside delay. ... [more]  

Bay of Islands photographer, Steve Western was on hand to catch the action on the on the first Day (and with a couple from Day 2) of racing at the Millennium Cup and Bay of Islands Sailing Week. The two events are being conducted in the picturesque Bay of Islands, Northland, NZ. Five superyachts are competing along with round the world race winner Steinlager 2. ... [more]  

Despite generally light airs with winds reaching no more that 15kts, three teams have won their skipper’s weight in rum for breaking records in the 79th Mount Gay Rum Round Barbados Race. ... [more]  

2015 St. Maarten Heineken Regatta - There is no straightforward regatta 'formula' and many events around the world strive to improve the experience that participants have year after year. For the St.Maarten Heineken Regatta it is no different, and this year they are listening to the regatta sailors when it comes to on shore venues and locations. ... [more]  

Photographer Ingrid Abery was on the water at 2015 Quantum Key West Race Week, and provided this gallery of images from day three. ... [more]  

Sailing in light winds of under 10kts, five superyachts enjoyed the first day's racing at the Millennium Cup sailed in the Bay of Islands, in Northland, New Zealand. Five superyachts are competing Silencio, Silvertip, Bliss, Janice of Wyoming and Sassafras. Three of these designed by Ed duBois, who is attending the regatta. ... [more]  

Volvo Ocean Race - Up up and away
Barcelona World Race - 'Haves' and 'Have Nots'
Volvo Ocean Race Leg 3 update from Jack Bouttell onboard Dongfeng
ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami - Game time!
Extreme Sailing Series™ 2015 – Ninth year ready to rock!
Foiling GC32s Key West Race Week images by Ingrid Abery
Mount Gay Rum Round Barbados Race - Crews prepare for big race
2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - Day 2
2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - A challenging day
America's Cup: Spithill leads Oracle reconnaissance team in Bermuda
Extreme Sailing Series announces new teams and venues for 2015
Barcelona World Race - Leaders enter the fastest section of the course
Martinique Surf Pro - Must attend event in the world surfing circuit
New York Yacht Club Invitational Cup preview
RORC Caribbean 600 proving irresistible
18ft Skiffs: Images from NSW Championships - Race 2
Volvo Ocean Race – Malacca Nightmare – now it’s a boat race again!!
2015 Annapolis to Newport Race - Battle for Surflant Prize
2015 Quantum Key West Race Week - Off to a great start
Volvo Ocean Race: Team Alvimedica - Enter the Dragon + Video
Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series - Day 3   
World Match Racing Tour's title sponsor goes into administration   
Kieler Woche 2015 promotes Olympic sailing competitions   
Trofeo S.A.R. Princesa Sofía – Kiteboarding and Dragons return   
ISAF Sailing World Cup Miami preview   
Audi Melges 20 Class - Miami Winter Series   
Barcelona World Race - The South is looming.   
Island Water World Grenada Sailing Week announce new one design class   
Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 Leg 3 position report for 19th January   
Pape Chevrolet North American Championships - Register today!   
Volvo Ocean Race: Sally Barkow - from the Olympics to the Volvo   
Volvo Ocean Race Leg 3 - The big casino *Feature   
C&C 30 Javelin makes West Coast Debut   
Quantum Key West Race Week - Flurry of activity   
2015 Mount Gay Round Barbados Race Series - Day 2   
Volvo Ocean Race Leg 3 - Entering the Malacca Strait   
McDougall+McConaghy Moth Worlds: More Alex McKinnon images   
Quantum Key West Race Week - GC32 class joins the action   
Mount Gay Round Barbados Race - Racing underway in classic conditions   
Barcelona World Race - Matched up for a Duel in the South   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT