Please select your home edition
Edition
Wildwind 2016 728x90

Chicago Mackinac 2012 - Thunderstorms forecast for Sunday night

by Sail-World.com on 21 Jul 2012
2012 Race to Mackinac cruising start Chicago Yacht Club © http://www.chicagoyachtclub.org
As of 3:10 p.m. Friday, the cruising division set sail for the 2012 Chicago Yacht Club (CYC) Race to Mackinac presented by Veuve Clicquot. Forty-two cruising boats began the race under sunny skies and north-northeast breeze at 13-15 knots, with gusts to 17. Today the giant racing fleet heads north in the 104th race.

Wining back the clock The pre-race weather forecast for the 2011 Chicago Yacht Club's Race to Mackinac told of thunderstorms. What the fleet experience was a set savage thunderstorm cells with strong winds blasting the fleet in the 60-90 knot range.

Below is the 2012 forecast and once again meterologist Chris Bedford has forecast thunderstorms for the same period, although at this stage there is no expectation that they will be nearly as severe as in 2011.

Here are the details..

'High pressure will be moving south and east of Lake Michigan on Saturday morning. A weak SW'ly flow is forecast to develop across most of the ...lake at first, but local SE'ly lake breezes are expected to develop along the IL and WI shores during Saturday afternoon.

Overnight Saturday and into Sunday, the high pressure moves further east and the SW flow returns overnight Saturday and into Sunday. This SW'ly wind will build with time and could provide a relatively quickly running breeze of fresh

15-20 knot winds on Sunday over the northern two-thirds of the lake.

We are watching a low pressure which is expected to move east across Ontario north of Lake Superior on Sunday, with a trailing cold front likely to move south-southeast across Superior and into northern Lake Michigan sometime on Sunday or Monday.

There is considerable uncertainty on the timing of this important weather feature. The front is expected to shift winds from moderate/fresh SW'lies to a moderate N or possible NE winds as it moves south across the Straits and northern Lake Michigan.

Timing on this front moving into the race area ranges from as early as mid-day Sunday to as late as Monday morning. With such a wide disparity in the forecast models, this front is developing as the key weather feature to watch for the race.

Weather-wise, the start and first 24 hours of the race look benign.

Increasing risks of showers and thunderstorms will be encountered over the northern half of third of the lake, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday. The details on this action await further confidence in the forecast regarding the movement of the front south out of upper MI and into the lake Sunday/Monday.'
Ancasta Ker 33 660x82NaiadRS Sailing 660x82

Related Articles

An interview with Ray Redniss about the STC’s annual Block Island Race
I caught up with Ray Redniss, the Block Island Race’s longtime PRO, via email to learn more about this classic event. I caught up with Ray Redniss, who has served as the PRO for the Block Island Race and the Vineyard Race (September 1, 2017) for the past twenty-plus years, via email to learn more about the state of this classic, early season New England event.
Posted on 22 May
An Q&A with Jeremy Pochman about 11th Hour Racing’s impressive efforts
I interviewed Jeremy Pochman of 11th Hour Racing to learn more about this forward-thinking environmental non-profit. 11th Hour Racing is doing some of the most forward-leaning environmental work in the entire marine sphere, and I wanted to learn more, so I reached out to Jeremy Pochman, 11th Hour Racing’s Strategic Director and Co-founder, to ask a few questions. All sailors are strongly encouraged to give this interview the time it deserves.
Posted on 15 May
A Q&A with Don Adams about Sail Canada’s plan to win Olympic medals
I caught up with Sail Canada CEO Don Adams to hear about Team Canada’s High Performance Plan for winning Olympic medals. Sail Canada, Canada’s national sailing authority, is implementing a new High Performance Plan with the aim of improving on their recent Olympic sailing performances. I caught up with Don Adams, CEO of Sail Canada, to learn more about this ambition plan for helping Canadian sailors win Olympic medals while also helping to inspire younger generations to pursue the Olympic-sailing dream.
Posted on 8 May
America's Cup - Southern Spars AC50 build for Emirates Team NZ + Video
The Peter Blake skippered Steinlager 2 put Southern Spars on the map 27 years after Steinlager 2 put Southern Spars on the map with her unequalled clean sweep of the 1989/90 Whitbread Round the World Race, Southern Spars were called on to build Emirates Team NZ's America's Cup Challenger. Here's a look behind the scenes at the composite engineering process Southern Spars employ on projects ranging from Volvo OR spars, to Olympic bike wheels to an AC50
Posted on 1 May
She’s still here with us, and now we can be there for her
Of the many endearing qualities in Lisa Blair, the one that is paramount is her effervescence. Of the many endearing qualities in Lisa Blair, the one that is paramount is her effervescence. Yet it is what lies behind that which could be her most incredible characteristic. Sometimes you can almost overlook her steely determination, but not for long when you start talking with her. Catching up with her live from Cape Town surely was a vivid reminder of not only what this sailor can accomplish
Posted on 24 Apr
Gladwell's Line - Timeout in Bermuda and a decision OTUSA will regret?
With Emirates Team New Zealand's AC50 now in Bermuda and being re-assembled, it is time to take a breath With Emirates Team New Zealand's AC50 now in Bermuda and being re-assembled, it is time to take a breath from what has been a hectic couple of months, both in Auckland and Bermuda. The third major Practice Session has concluded in Bermuda. This was conducted almost entirely if winds of around 16-25kts - starting to get close to the top end of the range for the AC50's.
Posted on 20 Apr
America's Cup - Glenn Ashby on hitting the AC50's sound barrier
These boats are incredible. The performance that can be achieved in light airs is the amazing thing. The big difference between the AC72, the America's Cup Class, used in the 2013 America's Cup in San Francisco and the smaller AC50 to be sailed in Bermuda, lies in their light and medium air performance. 'These boats are incredible. The performance that can be achieved in light airs is the amazing thing. In 7-8-9-10 knots of breeze, you are sailing at 30kts at times.
Posted on 18 Apr
America's Cup - Bernasconi on expected winning factors in Bermuda
ETNZ's Technical Director, Dan Bernasconi has let out a few clues as to where he thought the differences might lie Emirates Team NZ's Technical Director, Dan Bernasconi has let out a few clues as to where he thought the differences might lie once the six teams entered in the 35th America's Cup. 'We have had a great run', he says. 'We've had a few hiccups along the way, as always. But the boat is going really well. We are getting through manoeuvres very well. And we think our straight line speed is good.'
Posted on 18 Apr
A Q&A with Nicole Breault about women’s match racing in the USA
I caught up with Nicole Breault to learn more about women’s match racing in the USA and about her upcoming Clinegatta. I caught up with Nicole Breault to learn more about the state of women’s match racing in the USA, and to also hear more about her upcoming Clinegatta, which is set to unfurl on the waters of San Francisco Bay this July, and which could be a great resource for other talented female match racers who are looking to sharpen their skills.
Posted on 17 Apr
America's Cup - Team NZ return fire at Coutts' social media bullets
Emirates Team New Zealand have corrected the allegations made by America's Cup organisers Emirates Team NZ have corrected the allegations made by America's Cup organisers in a media release on Thursday (NZT) over the team's daggerboard use. In the release, replayed by America's Cup Events Authority and Oracle Team USA CEO Sir Russell Coutts on his Facebook page. It was claimed that the Kiwi team had an issue with daggerboards and were using a rule they had not supported to keep sailing
Posted on 2 Apr