Please select your home edition
Edition
Bakewell-White Yacht Design

Audi Hamilton Island Race Week day 5 weather

by Kenn Batt on 23 Aug 2012
Latest surface analysis Kenn Batt
Latest weather from Kenn Batt:

Audi Hamilton Island Race Week day 5 - Warnings: Nil Warnings current at time of issue.


A high pressure system currently centred in the Tasman Sea will maintain a ridge of high pressure over Queensland.

Observations: At 0630hr the surface wind at Hamilton Island was 180 deg at 09kn, gusting 11kn (temp 20C, pressure 1019hPa). At Hardy Reef (further offshore at 19.7S 149.2E) the wind was 140deg at 8kn.

Forecast Winds for Surprise Rock (Read Discussion below)

1000:MD140 DR(160-120) MS08 SR05-12kn
1300:MD120 DR(140-100) MS08 SR04-12kn
1600:MD100 DR(120-070) MS08 SR04-13kn

Note 1: First column is mean wind direction in deg Magnetic (MD). It is the 10min average (mean) value at a height of 10m above the water leading up to the hour quoted. The second column is the directional range (DR) of the wind direction in deg Mag. This takes into account the natural oscillation of the wind and is a function of the atmospheric stability, etc. The third column is the mean speed (MS) in knots (kn) and is the average 10min value leading up to the hour quoted at a height of 10m above the water. The last column is the wind speed range (SR) in knots and is the lowest wind speed to highest wind speed in the 10min leading up to forecast hour.

Discussion:

Forecast Confidence: Below Average

It’s going to be a very trying day!!!

The three biggest questions today will be 1. Will there be enough wind to race? 2. If enough wind, will the direction trend east during your race period? And 3. If so when will this occur?


Yesterday at the Airport weather station, the wind direction hung in from 130deg at 9-10kn before quickly going to 100deg at 7kn from about 1630hr. The ACCESS model (above) is essentially telling us that a SE trending E is the go, but doesn’t tell us exactly when. The CMC and the GFS essentially hold 130-120deg with a slight hint to about 100-110deg mid-afternoon, before flicking right.

The wind on the mainland coast should be 120-070deg at 5-10kn (ave) today.

Low cloud cover over the islands this morning will delay any left trend?

Localised wind direction and speed variations to those forecast above can be expected within the general Whitsunday area.

Other Possibilities:

65% chance that the wind direction trends left earlier than forecast above (from 1300hr)?

55% chance that wind speeds could be about 2kn stronger this afternoon from about 1300hr?

50% chance that not enough wind to race??

30% chance that there is a period of light and variable winds later this morning or early afternoon before a 5-10kn (ave) E-NE sea breeze develops?

Other: Wind may be channelled and hence a little stronger at times between islands (e.g. Fitzalan and Dent Passages) and out of some bays. Winds may be lighter and more flicky in the lee of Islands and land masses generally?

Natural oscillations: around 15-30deg and up to 60deg in the lee of land masses.

Weather: Cloudy or overcast this morning with some morning drizzle patches. Becoming less cloudy during the late morning with the chance of an afternoon shower.

Maximum land temperature at Hamilton Island: about 22 degrees.

Wind Waves: 0.3 to 0.8metres. Less in lee of land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current. (Wave heights quoted are Significant wave heights).

Tide at Shute Harbour: Low of 0.71m at 0824hr, High of 2.91m at 1509hr and Low of 1.20m at 2128hr

Some tidal offsets to apply to Shute harbour: Dent Is +5min, Haselwood Is +7min, Blacksmith Is +16min

Current:A moderate to strong flood this morning and early afternoon then slack followed by a moderate ebb this evening. Be extremely careful in channels, etc.
Remember: Tide floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays (there are many localized variations so be alert).

Sea Temperature: about 20 degrees.

Outlook

Friday 24th: Partly cloudy with the chance of an afternoon shower.
Max temp 23deg.
Wind: SE-NE 5-12kn (ave)

Barz Optics - Kids rangeWildwind 2016 660x82Southern Spars - 100

Related Articles

Dodging ducks, savoring summer—Sailing news from the U.S. and beyond
Editorial Editorial
Posted today at 4:23 pm
Full focus on board Oman Air for Extreme Sailing Series St Petersburg
With a lead on the overall scoreboard following their last gasp win in Hamburg the pressure is on to maintain 100% focus With a five-point lead on the overall scoreboard, following their last gasp win in Hamburg, the pressure is on to maintain 100% focus to make sure they perform to their maximum capabilities right up until the final race in Sydney in December.
Posted today at 12:49 pm
Zhik sailors win 17 sailing medals at 2016 Olympic Regatta
The 2016 Olympic games are over and what a Games they have been - Zhik sailors dominated Zhik sailors won almost 60% of the medals contested at Rio de Janeiro. It was a regatta which tested sailors and gear - with one day being the most severe conditions ever experienced at an Olympic regatta. For the Zhik team riders on the waters of Rio, four years and more of hard work and dedication have paid off for many.
Posted on 29 Aug
Zhik sailors win 17 sailing medals at 2016 Olympic Regatta
The 2016 Olympic games are over and what a Games they have been - Zhik sailors dominated Zhik sailors won almost 60% of the medals contested at Rio de Janeiro. It was a regatta which tested sailors and gear - with one day being the most severe conditions ever experienced at an Olympic regatta. For the Zhik team riders on the waters of Rio, four years and more of hard work and dedication have paid off for many.
Posted on 29 Aug
Etchells Europeans - Kiwis on top after Day 1 after long day in Cowes
For the first day of the 2016 Etchells Open Europeans, PRO Phil Lawrence, prophesied that it might be a long day The top Etchells team today was Feng Shui, from the Royal Akarana Yacht Club, Auckland, NZ. Helmed by Andrew Wills and owned by Anatole Masfen, Matthew Kelway completes the line up. The team has won several New Zealand National Titles and Wills was on Jud Smith's winning team for the 2006 Etchells Worlds.
Posted on 29 Aug
Hollandia wins 8 Metre World Cup
After nine race series, Netherlands' Hollandia wins it with eight points. The racing took place in a range of conditions After a five day, nine race series, Hollandia of the Netherlands wins it with eight points. The racing took place in a range of conditions and Hollandia managed to win every race.
Posted on 29 Aug
Volvo Ocean Race - Enright and Towill ready to go again in 2017/18
Team Alvimedica skipper Charlie Enright and his long-time buddy Mark Towill are eager to put their experience to use. Team Alvimedica were the youngest team in the race last edition, and now skipper Charlie Enright and his long-time buddy Mark Towill are eager to put that experience to use. Volvo Ocean race's Jonno Turner caught up with Mark and Charlie to chat about everything from the transition back into 'real life', their reflections on the 2014-15 campaign - and the future.
Posted on 29 Aug
Noroton Yacht Club takes the NYYC Grandmasters Team Race Trophy again
The yacht club from Darien, Connecticut, still out sailed every other club on the water. Every August the biggest question for the NYYC Grandmasters Team Race Regatta is whether this will be the year that Noroton Yacht Club's winning streak ends. Yet even after the age minimums were raised by five years and the event was expanded to 10 teams and three days to stiffen the competition, the yacht club from Darien, Connecticut, still out sailed every other club on the water.
Posted on 29 Aug
The door’s been flung open – again
Now whether it was the Champagne or something far more ethereal, there is the chance that sailing gets sexier for Tokyo Now whether it was the Champagne or something far more ethereal, there is the chance that sailing may get sexier for Tokyo 2020. Yes, the proverbial door has been cast ajar before, often to much fanfare, and not that much has been achieved.
Posted on 28 Aug
Michael Illbruck crowned 2016 Melges 20 World Champion
Although not a simple task, Freides aimed to keep Illbruck behind him, or at minimum out of top nine ranking. Hosted by Marina di Scarlino/Club Nautico Scarlino, the World Championship was the most successful to date featuring four days of incredible sportboat racing.
Posted on 28 Aug