sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Video Gallery Photo Gallery
Sail-World.com : Audi Hamilton Island Race Week day 5 weather
Audi Hamilton Island Race Week day 5 weather

'Latest surface analysis'    Kenn Batt

Latest weather from Kenn Batt:

Audi Hamilton Island Race Week day 5 - Warnings: Nil Warnings current at time of issue.


A high pressure system currently centred in the Tasman Sea will maintain a ridge of high pressure over Queensland.

Observations: At 0630hr the surface wind at Hamilton Island was 180 deg at 09kn, gusting 11kn (temp 20C, pressure 1019hPa). At Hardy Reef (further offshore at 19.7S 149.2E) the wind was 140deg at 8kn.

Forecast Winds for Surprise Rock (Read Discussion below)

1000:MD140 DR(160-120) MS08 SR05-12kn
1300:MD120 DR(140-100) MS08 SR04-12kn
1600:MD100 DR(120-070) MS08 SR04-13kn

Note 1: First column is mean wind direction in deg Magnetic (MD). It is the 10min average (mean) value at a height of 10m above the water leading up to the hour quoted. The second column is the directional range (DR) of the wind direction in deg Mag. This takes into account the natural oscillation of the wind and is a function of the atmospheric stability, etc. The third column is the mean speed (MS) in knots (kn) and is the average 10min value leading up to the hour quoted at a height of 10m above the water. The last column is the wind speed range (SR) in knots and is the lowest wind speed to highest wind speed in the 10min leading up to forecast hour.

Discussion:

Forecast Confidence: Below Average

It’s going to be a very trying day!!!

The three biggest questions today will be 1. Will there be enough wind to race? 2. If enough wind, will the direction trend east during your race period? And 3. If so when will this occur?

Forecast chart for 1600hr today -  Kenn Batt  

Yesterday at the Airport weather station, the wind direction hung in from 130deg at 9-10kn before quickly going to 100deg at 7kn from about 1630hr. The ACCESS model (above) is essentially telling us that a SE trending E is the go, but doesn’t tell us exactly when. The CMC and the GFS essentially hold 130-120deg with a slight hint to about 100-110deg mid-afternoon, before flicking right.

The wind on the mainland coast should be 120-070deg at 5-10kn (ave) today.

Low cloud cover over the islands this morning will delay any left trend?

Localised wind direction and speed variations to those forecast above can be expected within the general Whitsunday area.

Other Possibilities:

65% chance that the wind direction trends left earlier than forecast above (from 1300hr)?

55% chance that wind speeds could be about 2kn stronger this afternoon from about 1300hr?

50% chance that not enough wind to race??

30% chance that there is a period of light and variable winds later this morning or early afternoon before a 5-10kn (ave) E-NE sea breeze develops?

Other: Wind may be channelled and hence a little stronger at times between islands (e.g. Fitzalan and Dent Passages) and out of some bays. Winds may be lighter and more flicky in the lee of Islands and land masses generally?

Natural oscillations: around 15-30deg and up to 60deg in the lee of land masses.

Weather: Cloudy or overcast this morning with some morning drizzle patches. Becoming less cloudy during the late morning with the chance of an afternoon shower.

Maximum land temperature at Hamilton Island: about 22 degrees.

Wind Waves: 0.3 to 0.8metres. Less in lee of land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current. (Wave heights quoted are Significant wave heights).

Tide at Shute Harbour: Low of 0.71m at 0824hr, High of 2.91m at 1509hr and Low of 1.20m at 2128hr

Some tidal offsets to apply to Shute harbour: Dent Is +5min, Haselwood Is +7min, Blacksmith Is +16min

Current:A moderate to strong flood this morning and early afternoon then slack followed by a moderate ebb this evening. Be extremely careful in channels, etc.
Remember: Tide floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays (there are many localized variations so be alert).

Sea Temperature: about 20 degrees.

Outlook

Friday 24th: Partly cloudy with the chance of an afternoon shower.
Max temp 23deg.
Wind: SE-NE 5-12kn (ave)


by Kenn Batt

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=101261

10:50 PM Wed 22 Aug 2012GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2012 Audi Hamilton Island Race Week

Related News Stories:

25 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week, Crosbie Lorimer Day 7 Cruiser Images
24 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week - Game on for final day
24 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week - Prix d’ Elegance overall
24 Aug 2012  Audi IRC Australian Championship - New leader
24 Aug 2012  Hamilton Island Race Week - Svanika heads to Singapore
24 Aug 2012  Hamilton Island Race Week - Day 7 images by Andrea Francolini
24 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week - Team Australia stranded
24 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week, Dale Lorimer's Images of Day 7
24 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week forecast and course changes
23 Aug 2012  Audi Hamilton Island Race Week - South Pacific Trophy contest
MORE STORIES ...






News - USA and the World





HUD Vision: An interview with Afterguard Marine’s Alex Moret by David Schmidt, Sail-World USA Editor, Seattle














America's Cup: Expected de Ridder penalty should be reduced by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com/nz, Auckland, NZ


















Congressional Cup - Victory for Taylor Canfield and crew by Rich Roberts (As Amended by ISAF),




2014 Halifax – Saint-Pierre Ocean Race by Patricia Nelder, Nova Scotia














Image Gallery: Stratis SL33 flies on the Waitemata by Richard Gladwell,Sail-world.com/nz,


Audi Melges 20- Sperry Topsider Charleston Race Week - Light final day by International Audi Melges 20 Class Association,










International Optimist Regatta Clinic and Team Race - Register now!
Congressional Cup: World top rankers finish that way in Long Beach
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week Day 3 finale
America's Cup: Gino Morrelli outlines the new AC62 design
Doyle Sails New Zealand signs Andrew Brown as One Design Manager
America's Cup: Dean Barker's Blog - A sail with the Duke and Duchess
29er World Youth Sailing Week Easter regatta - Day 1 and 2 overall
C Thomas Clagett Jr Memorial Clinic/Regatta - Entries start to roll in
50th Congressional Cup: See the delayed coverage and media conferences
Clipper Race 10 Day 27: Closing stages - Qingdao to San Francisco
Canfield, Williams, Bruni, Swinton in Congressional Cup final four
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week - Day 2
Audi Melges 20 Charleston Race Week - Perfect conditions in Charleston
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Full on ocean conditions for day 3
PWA World Tour - A taste of things to come at La Torche + Video
Women's International Match Racing Series kicks off in June
Melges 32 Audi Tron Sailing Series - Action shots by Max Ranchi
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Frustrating conditions
Man rescued after falling overboard in Pacific taken to hospital
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Youth leading Melges 20
Congressional Cup - Canfield leads toward Congressional Cup sailoffs   
Sperry Top-Sider Charleston Race Week 2014 - Perfection for Day 1   
America's Cup: Coutts claims ISAF Jury on a crusade, backs Kiwi report   
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Will light winds hamper progress?   
Les Voiles de St. Barth - Preparing to rock Saint Barthélemy waters   
Clipper Round the World Race - OneDLL and Qingdao now in San Francisco   
America's Cup: Emirates Team NZ up against funding hurdle for year   
Melges 32 Sailing Series Napoli - Day 1 images by Stefano Gattini   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   
Melges 32 Sailing Series - Napoli action shots by Max Ranchi   
Volvo Ocean Race - Team Alvimedica launch new boat   
Emirates Team NZ: Royals duke it out on the Waitemata   
2014 Charleston Race Week - Thousands of sailors descend on Charleston   
The Congressional Cup 2014 - Williams hangs on with a classy crowd   
50th Congressional Cup: View the Live racing here   
RORC Transatlantic Race - Notice of Race now available   
Oyster Regatta Antigua - Sunshine and smiles on day 2   
Rolex China Sea Race on the horizon   
What can a boat name tell you about the person behind the helm?   
Clipper Round the World Yacht Race - Race 10 rumbles on   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News







Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XL WAS US