sail-world.com
 
 
News Home Cruising Photo Gallery Video Gallery
Sail-World.com : Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 17, 2013 - AUD falls further
Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 17, 2013 - AUD falls further


'240313AucklandRegattaDay3 (24) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3'    Richard Gladwell ©    Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 16, 2013

Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

A slew of unexpectedly bad economic data did little to deter equity markets which seem impervious. The bad news is interpreted as 'good news' as this reinforces the rationale behind the Fed's QE program. Good News is treated as 'Good News' so markets take on more risk and the bubble continues to expand. This is insanity and can now be blamed upon Bernanke justified through fiscal incompetence. The shine also came off the USD with the EUR edging back to 1.2900 and the GBP back over 1.5300.

Weekly Jobless Claims rose 30,000 and the Philly Fed's Manufacturing reported a 5.2% contraction. This news was further tainted by the massive fall in Housing Starts. They fell by a huge 16.5% although this was somewhat mitigated by the rise in Building Permits issued. Japanese Industrial Production rose 0.9% for the quarter giving some growth to an economy mire in stagnation for more than 20 years.

The Japanese paradigm is the snapshot of the future for Europe. Economic contraction and or stagnation for the foreseeable future. This is what lawmakers should be adjusting their new reality to. It looks pretty attractive compared to the crises of collapse they have been facing for the last five years! With signs of life in the Bond Yield market and jumps in the Dollar many could judge some safety plays in motion.

Commodities continue to be hit and thus the flagging USD has done little to arrest the fall in associated currencies. The AUD is now trading under .9800 with a stream of weak economic data confirming weaker resource demand.

The KIWI traded 0.8150 after a predictable budget charting a course to surplus. Conservative Budgets will reassure rating agencies although the NZ economy still faces huge challenges as Global Market conditions deteriorate.

Dirty Deeds - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Stocks were flat-lining in the US after some further weak economic data from Europe and domestically. In Europe, French GDP continued to contract and was joined by the engine room of Europe, namely Germany. Overall EU GDP contracted 0.2% for the Quarter and 1% for the year.

This extends the technical recession and shows the dire straights the single market is in. In the US the Dollar has continued to rise bucking the long term recovery trends. The initial reasoning was due to the economic recovery America was undergoing. Economic data points to a slow recovery with Industrial and Manufacturing Production both contracting as did the Empire State Manufacturing report.

Housing has been mixed but it is the rise in yields that may be the real canary in the mineshaft!? Rising yields, despite Bernanke endless ocean of liquidity, should send major warning signals to risk markets....especially equities.

The EUR continued to fall against the Dollar trading 1.2870 and the GBP 1.5215. Commodities are drifting in the face of the Dollar rise and have continued to impact the associated currencies. The AUD is now trading 0.9875 and the KIWI 0.8220. We are breaking some decent downside technical levels so look for triggers to see a major turn in risk sentiment.

Elliott 7’s - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 15, 2013

Markets continued the bull run which seems to be mindless considering economic fundamentals. It appears that the Fed has overwhelmed all sensibilities by flooding the markets with ever increasing liquidity but there is a limit.

The Fed is fast becoming 'too big to fail'. The EUR fell back to 1.2930 and the GBP 1.5225. Commodities took a hit with Chinese demand flagging and data so good that even the believers starting to doubt. The statistics defy logic with the uniformity and should be questioned because of the source.

The peripheral currencies continue to suffer the risk aversion trade with the AUD now below 0.9900 and the KIWI 0.8180.

There is more downside available as the Dollar surges from a risk prospective rather than the vaunted economic recovery. Turmoil will spread to equities.

Elliott 5.9s- 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 14, 2013
Rumours swirled in the US, that the massive Bond Buying program the Fed has blessed the markets with, may be coming to an end. The Fed is said to be dipping their collective toe in to the water to test the temperature. This is a signal of moves to cut the $85 Billion monthly Bond Buying that has been referred to as QE Infinity.

The reason Bernanke launched the continuous stimulus package was the dire state of the US economy and the recent improvement may tempt the Reserve Bank to return to reality. The problem is that the economy has stabilised but there are more challenges ahead, especially from Europe. The Dollar continued to rise after the G7 endorced the Bank of Japans QE program which has seen the JPY hit 102.00 and charts say may see a move to 105!.

The EUR was steady at 1.2975 and the GBP below 1.5300. Hard commodities drifted lower with the rising Dollar, which has pushed the associated currencies back.

The AUD has well and truely breached parity, trading 0.9950 and the KIWI slipped to 0.8240 despite House Sales rising 25% tempered by a flattening in prices. In the US Retail Sales rose 0.1%, beating expectations, which has improved the GDP growth outlook. Chinese Industrial Production grew 9.4% and Retail Sales rose 12.5% continuing a trend of bullish, consistant and doubtful economic data releases.

The trends are positive but equities have exploded because of Monetary policy and any contraction will result in a massive correction which will hit risk appetite hard! Mid-May

MRX Action - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3  Richard Gladwell_©   Click Here to view large photo

Collinson FX market Commentary: May 13, 2013

US Equities closed on a new record high compliments of massive liquidity flooding markets looking for a return. The US Dollar surged again as a result of relative confidence in the US recovery vis-a-vis the other Economic Zones.

The EUR slipped below the psychological 1.3000 and the GBP floundered to 1.5350. Commodities took a bath as a result of the surge in the USD and perhaps a reflection of softening demand.

Consequently the associated currencies suffered with the AUD breaking parity and the KIWI under 0.8300. May rolls on without any adversity in the Equity markets with New Yorkers declining the opportunity for a holiday!

A quiet week in terms of economic data will be followed by a very busy week coming. Growth numbers in the EU and Inflationary data will be a guide to the state of any recovery in the 'submerging nations'!

The US will have a close look at the vital Housing sector and the consumer with Retail Sales releases. A very busy week so be prepared for some volatility especially with the currencies perched on some very suspect technical levels!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.


by Collinson FX

  

Click on the FB Like link to post this story to your FB wall

http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=109552

10:17 PM Thu 16 May 2013GMT


Click here for printer friendly version
Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.

Click for further information on
2011 Collinson & Co

Related News Stories:

16 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 16, 2013 - Europe contracts USD up
15 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 15, 2013 - The mindless Bulls
14 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 14, 2013 - AUD breaks the ice
13 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May13, 2013 - ANZACs take a bath
10 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May10, 2013 - USD on the rise
09 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 9, 2013 - Oz down KIWI up
08 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 8, 2013 - RBA cuts to 1959/60 rate
07 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 7, 2013 - KIWI catching up
06 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 6, 2013 - Oz interest rate cut?
03 May 2013  Collinson FX Market Commentary: May 3, 2013 - Bulls on the handlebars
MORE STORIES ...




News - USA and the World

































































International Moth Worlds: Rashley ahead as Aussies close in by Mark Jardine / YachtsandYachting.com,


ISAF Youth Match Racing Worlds - American unbeatable on day 1
RS Feva World Championships - All set at Yacht Club de Carnac
ISAF Rolex World Sailor of the Year Awards - Nominations now open
BIC Techno 293 Worlds - Steady winds on day 2 + Video
29er North American Open Championship - Qualifying series wraps up
Opening ceremony O'pen Bic World Cup, Travemunde Week, Germany
Six Metre Europeans - Wind fails to make an appearance on day 2
Edgartown Race Weekend - Let the sailing (and good times) begin
ISAF Youth Match Racing World Championship - Action commences July 23
International Moth Worlds - Mothballed on day 4 + Video
Spirits high as Team Alvimedica completes Transatlantic crossing
Gladwell's Line: A change of direction needed in the America's Cup *Feature
29er North American Championship - Day 1 in Kingston
Red Bull 49erFX: First look at the Olympic sailing venue at Rio
Fuerteventura Kiteboarding Grand Slam - Classic conditions on day 3
NYYC Race Week Part II images by Rolex/Daniel Forster
Drowning or electric shock? What you need to know to help save a life
BIC Techno 293 Worlds 2014 - Day 1
Six Metre European Championship - Blazing sunshine on opening day
National Sailing Hall of Fame to present Lifetime Achievement Award
International Moth Worlds: Greenhalgh and Rashley tied at the top   
PWA Pozo World Cup - Fantastic finale determines winners   
Six Metre Class British Open Championship - Llanoria and Valhalla win   
Anna Tunnicliffe set to compete at the CrossFit Games   
America's Cup: Oracle Team USA holds foiling camp at Wangi SC   
Volvo Ocean Race: Abu Dhabi OR completes double Atlantic crossing   
Volvo Ocean Race: Team SCA has a 'pull through day' off the Canaries   
No tiller sailing - how to steer using just the sails + Video   
International Moth Worlds: Three bullets in a row for Greenhalgh   
U.S. Junior Women’s Singlehanded Championship - Sophia Reineke wins   
BIC Techno 293 Worlds 2014 - Day 0 Opening   
Fuerteventura World Cup - Slalom action highlights day 2   
2014 Governor's Cup - Sam Gilmour of RFBYC victorious again   
Farr 40 West Coast Champ - Skipper Alberto Rossi leads Enfant Terrible   
Flying Dutchman World Championships - Magyars are the Masters   
Final day shakes up standings at Cape Panwa Hotel Phuket Raceweek   
2014 -15 Volvo Ocean Race: Team Alvimedica pushing towards Southampton   
NYYC Race Week - Saving the best for last   
VX One North American Championship - Chris Alexander commands   
2014 Cape Panwa Hotel Phuket Raceweek - Waiting game on Day 3   


For this week's complete news stories select    Last 7 Days
   Search All News
For last month's complete news stories select    Last 30 Days
   Archive News





Sail-World.com  


















Switch Default Region to:

Social Media

Asia

Australia

Canada

Europe

New Zealand

United Kingdom


http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/Twitter_logo_small.png http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/FaceBook-icon.png  http://www.sail-world.com/event_images/image/RSS-Icon.png

United States

Cruising Northern

Cruising Southern

MarineBusiness World

PowerBoat World

FishingBoating World

 

Contact

Commercial

News

Search

Contact Us

Advertisers Information

Submit news/events

Search Stories/Text

Feedback

Advertisers Directory

Newsletter Archive

Photo Gallery

 

Banner Advertising Details

Newsletter Subscribe

Video Gallery

Policies

 

 

 

Privacy Policy

 

 


Cookie Policy

 

 



This site and its contents are © Copyright TetraMedia and/or the original author, photographer etc. All Rights Reserved.  Photographs are copyright by law.  If you wish to use or buy a photograph contact the photographer directly.
XLXL NEW US
LocalAds   DE  ES  FR  IT