America's Cup- Predictwind - Lighter winds initially for Day 13
by Richard Gladwell on 24 Sep 2013
The regular San Fransisco breeze is expected again on Day 13 of the 34th America's Cup, for Monday and Races 16 and 17 of the 2013 America's Cup. The first race is due to start at 1.15pm on Sunday, local time with the second race scheduled for 1415hrs.
The America’s Cup Race Course, framed by the Golden Gate Bridge - today the wind blows from right to left, and the ebbing tide flows from left to right against the windflow. The blue sea that can be seen behind the City to the right, is not ocean but the greater expanse of the San Francisco Bay - which exits through the relatively narrow channel under the Bridge. © Richard Gladwell http://www.richardgladwell.com
Towards the bottom of this story we feature Predictwind's course routing optimised for wind and tide on the AC race course, and using an AC72 performance profile. It is included to show that the effect of the tide on the race course and race strategies. See bottom of story for the course variations.
For the official line on how the current factor is determined click here
Today the tide is flooding (coming in through the Golden Gate) and will negate the previous advantage that exists with an ebbing tide.
With the first race of the day set for its regular start time of 1315hrs the wind feeds produced by Predictwind indicate that winds will be around 12kts. Both feeds produced by Predictwind are in agreement on the strength at the race start time, however the significant feature of the forecast is that just 90 minutes before the start the winds will be near calm.
The minimum breeze required to complete the course within the 40 minute time limit is 10kts (although the specified minimum breeze is 5kts), and the time limit could be an issue in the first race of the day, but for the second race, the wind should be very adequate without exceeding the maximum of 23kts plus tidal effect.
The breeze is expected to quickly build in the late morning and early afternoon to reach a strength of 15-18kts for the second scheduled race of the day.
The forecast does not take account of the influence of fog, which can have several effects on the race course winds.
The above image shows the wind speed and direction 1300hrs with breezes expected to be 12kts at the start of Race 16 - these are only average speeds and gusts will be higher.
The second image (above) shows a graphic representation of the wind build - confirming the numbers for the prognosis. The significant feature is the feed are very similar for the 90 minutes before the start of the first race of the day. They vary, but not too significantly for the second race.
The above image shows the wind speed and direction at 1400hrs still with a small increase in the breeze in the middle of the course indicated by the yellow wind arrows.
The second image (above) shows a graphic representation of the wind build - confirming the numbers for the prognosis. Reading the top line we can see the wind direction, the wind strength with winds forecast to be 15-18kts and from the SW.
The third chart (below) shows the wind expectations for Monday and Tuesday. Typically the forecast for Tuiesday is revised upwards closer to the time of the race start. Note that sea conditions described in this chart are based on open water and are not descriptive of an enclosed harbour
The courses optimised by Predictwind for an AC72 show that the optimum course only has no real variation between races. The faint purple line shows the recommended course for Race 16 and the red dotted line shows the course recommended for Race 17. The mark positions used in this projection are only very approximate - and will vary on the course set for the day. At the bottom of the upwind leg the model shows that the boats cannot use full width of the course because on the adverse, incoming tide.
The point here is that downwind is there is little variation in the options, aside from the recommendation to gybe early and get into the incoming tide. And upwind in both models the fastest course is to the south, or cityside shore, aside from allowing a short leg to Alcatraz in the first race before heading for shore. The tide is expected to be in flood (incoming) for this race, and boats will need to avoid its effects upwind by taking the city shore.
Two weather feeds are used by Predictwind, the key to the accuracy of the forecast lies with the graphs, as when the two lines for the two feeds are quite close together and following each other in the trend, then the likelihood of the forecast is high. If there is separation to any marked degree, then there still some issues to be resolved but usually 24 hours from the race they are well aligned.
The Predictwind model takes various weather feeds and then polishes these, part of this process is factoring in the effect of local topography on the breeze - well demonstrated by the images with the funneling of the breeze.
Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), www.predictwind.com!PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.
A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and www.predictwind.com!PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.
Real time local wind observations have been added as further functionality.
You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of www.predictwind.com!PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.