Please select your home edition
Edition
Absolute Marine

Rolex Sydney Hobart- Big Boats predicted to avoid gale

by Richard Gladwell on 26 Dec 2013
Dockside at the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia (CYCA) © Rolex / Carlo Borlenghi http://www.carloborlenghi.net

The supermaxis contesting the 2013 Rolex Sydney Hobart race are expected to dodge the strong winds predicted for the latter stages of the race.

The latest projections and course routing using a polar (performance data) from a top supermaxi, shows the big boats will have winds mainly from a northerly and easterly direction, with winds peaking at a 22kt average - meaning a 30kt top end.

Strangely with such a favourable wind direction and strength, the race record does not seem to be under threat, with the boats expected to take just over two days, according to two of the wind models used to develop the optimum route.

For those further down the fleet, the picture is not so leisurely with the 50fters to be hit with a southerly change on the evening of December 28 around 8.00pm.

Then the wind is expected to switch within an hour from a northerly direction of 23kts average to a SW direction of 26kts - both are average wind strengths and the gusts are expected to be around 35kts or more initially, increasing to over 30kts the following day (Gusts expected to be in excess of 40kts) before beginning to ease in the early hours of the following day.


A TP52 polar used by Predictwind for weather routing indicates that this size of boat will finish in about 2 days and 14hrs – about 12 hours after the supermaxis.

For the start of the race, winds are expected to be from a SE direction are around 15kts average (20kts plus in gusts). But they swing north and lighten for the following day.

The weather routing recommends the boats follow a more easterly course, with one model recommending a big hook out to sea. From experience the competitors do not stray too far from the direct line from the direct route to Hobart, for reasons of sailing extra distance, being caught on the wrong side of a change, and separating from their competitors. More radical tactics sometimes come into play in the latter stages of the race as trailing boats are prepared to take more of a gamble to make a break through on the leaders.

Sail-World will be updating regularly with the latest weather projections and routing throughout the race from Predictwind. Over the past few days, weather projections have changed quite markedly, and this is expected to continue after the race gets underway.

Zhik ZKG 660x82PredictWind.comCollinson and Co

Related Articles

America's Cup - Emirates Team NZ give first look at the pedaling AC50
Emirates Team New Zealand formally christened their new AC50 America's Cup Challenger on a rainy Auckland afternoon. Emirates Team New Zealand formally christened their new AC50 America's Cup Challenger on a rainy Auckland afternoon. The team has been sailing for the previous two days making news headlines after it was revealed in Sail-World.com that the AC50 would become only the second yacht in America's Cup history to use pedal power.
Posted on 16 Feb
America's Cup - Kiwis sign Olympic Cyclist for the Tour de Bermuda
Ttop cyclist Simon van Velthooven, a 2012 Olympic Bronze cycling medallist had been signed by the America's Cup team Emirates Team New Zealand put in a second foiling display on Auckland's Waitemata harbour ahead of the official launching of their AC50 tomorrow. With brighter skies the cycling team took their places on the pedalstals and used leg power to provide the hydraulic pressure necessary to run the AC50's control systems for the foils and wingsail.
Posted on 15 Feb
A Q&A with Anna Tunnicliffe about her return to competitive sailing
I talked with Anna Tunnicliffe before the Sailing World Cup Miami to learn about her return to Olympic-class sailing. Anna Tunnicliffe won gold at the Beijing 2008 Olympics in the Laser Radial before shifting her sights to the Women’s Match Racing event for the London 2012 Olympics. Here, she came up shy of expectation and left sailing for the CrossFit Games, but now she is returning to her roots. I talked with Tunnicliffe before the Sailing World Cup Miami to learn about her return to Olympic-class sailing.
Posted on 23 Jan
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – Race record smashed
On Day Three (just) of the 72nd Rolex Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race Perpetual Loyal smashed the race record On Day Three (just) of the 72nd Rolex Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race, in the strongest downwind conditions in recent times, certainly as good as the 1999 iteration of the blue water classic, Anthony Bell’s supermaxi, Perpetual Loyal, the former Speedboat and then Rambler 100, smashed the race record for the famous 628-nautical mile event.
Posted on 27 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – right turn means record in mortal danger?
A while ago we talked about not unprecedented conditions, but certainly ones that had not been seen for ages. A while ago we talked about not unprecedented conditions, but certainly ones that had not been seen for ages. Those that did a lot of Hobarts in the 90s would scoff at the thought of using the kite sheets for the whole journey. Their memories would be why they even bothered to clip them onto the rail at all.
Posted on 27 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – The Derwent awake or asleep for Loyal?
With steady winds now pushing everyone down the Tasmanian East Coast With steady winds now pushing everyone down the Tasmanian East Coast, it does appear that barring a mechanical failure, Anthony Bell’s Perpetual Loyal will be the first boat into Storm Bay tonight, and well on record pace too!
Posted on 27 Dec 2016
AeroMedia Drone Video from Rolex Sydney Hobart Race start
Jono Whiity drives the 18-Footer, Line 7, and also pilots the hAeroMedia drone for these images of the #RSHYR start. Jono Whiity drives the 18-Footer, Line 7, and also pilots the AeroMedia drone that captured these images of the #RSHYR start.
Posted on 27 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – Situation normal
You could easily say that all is right with the world again. You could easily say that all is right with the world again. After the worst start in 12 years, the Oatley family’s 100 foot Wild Oats XI, the eight times line honours winner skippered by Mark Richards is leading the fleet South, as she has done so many, many times before.
Posted on 26 Dec 2016
Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – Changing of the guard
So as darkness descends on the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, watch systems and red lights take over from sunglasses So as darkness descends on the 72nd Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, watch systems and red lights take the place of sunglasses and hats. Yet another of the Hobart maxims is now coming into play. You go out early and come in late. It means you stay offshore early to pick up the East Australia Current running down South and then come in back to the Tasmanian coast and stay there.
Posted on 26 Dec 2016
Wild Oats XI Training Day - VIDEO
As your Christmas Day preparations get into full swing, chances are you won’t have much time to get into the mood As your Christmas Day preparations get into full swing, chances are you won’t have much time to get into the mood for the big race to Hobart on Boxing Day. So here’s a pacey one minute video we've compiled from a training day that we shot aboard Wild Oats XI this time last year in a solid nor'easter, shortly after her major rebuild was completed. Merry Christmas to all from Crosbie and Dale
Posted on 23 Dec 2016