Please select your home edition
Edition
Kilwell - 3

Predictwind- Tracking Cyclone Lusi Update 3- 60kts in Hauraki Gulf

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com/nz on 15 Mar 2014
The luxury yacht, A, obscured by the cyclonic murk as she shelters from the wind and rain Cyclone Lusi in Auckland on saturday morning © Richard Gladwell http://www.richardgladwell.com

Tropical Cyclone Lusi hit New Zealand, on late Friday night bringing strong winds and rain to the top half of the North Island.

Winds gusting to 60kts have been recorded at several points on the eastern coast including Cape Reinga, Channel Island and Tiritiri Island in the Hauraki Gulf.

Auckland appears to have been spared the worst of the onslaught, with Rangitoto Island providing some protection.

Sail-World started tracking the storm at 2200hrs on Thursday night - see two earlier stories and maps. This latest update is at 1000hrs on Saturday. The times of the shots of the storm can be read alongside each image.

A disturbing feature of the latest predictions is that the middle of the South Island and already flooded Christchurch, will be hit with heavy rains, when the city had been previously expected to avoid the heavy rainfall.

Rain from the cyclone is expected to hit about 4.00am on Sunday.

By Monday morning the low pressure area will have disappeared off the bottom of the South island and is expected to dissipate.

The first three Isobar images show the progress and expected track of the low pressure area from the Pacific at 1000hrs on Saturday night, and again 12 hours later on Saturday night, and some from Sunday.






Predictwind produces two weather predictions based on two independent feeds and then applies various adjustments to take account of a variety of factors including land mass and topography. For a fuller explanation of how PredictWind enhances its feeds to provide a detailed local forecast click here

As can be seen above, Cyclone Lusi has stayed intact passing over the top of the North Island and will spin out into the Tasman Sea before coming back over the middle of the South Island. Predictwind does take account of topographical features when making its forecasts - which indicates the rainfall in the South Island will be as expected and will have taken the Southern Alps into consideration.

In this Forecast Table from Predictwind.com we are just showing the Forecast at Bean Rock, which indicates the winds staying strong into Sunday.

Winds did hit the predicted strengths in gusts and at the correct time 0700-0900hrs on Saturday morning. They are how expected to ease a little.

In both the feeds used by Predictwind, the prognoses are very similar, indicating that there is a high degree of confidence between the models as to the predicted outcomes.



The third graphic shows the real time weather observation points around the North Island, these points are used to track the actual wind strength and direction, as the cyclone moves south and can be compared to the history of wind strength and direction from more northern points such as Cape Reinga and the Hauraki Gulf.

[Sorry, this content could not be displayed]

The fourth set of graphics shows the advance of the rain, which will be heavy but is not expect to last that long, but will be replaced with strong winds. The rain has largely passed in Auckland, but will remain in the Coromandel and move into the eastern Bay of Plenty.

The point of concern is now with Christchurch and catchment areas to the west on the slopes of the Southern Alps.



[Sorry, this content could not be displayed]
[Sorry, this content could not be displayed]
[Sorry, this content could not be displayed]
[Sorry, this content could not be displayed]

Stay tuned for further updates

Sail-World will update these forecasts and charts as the storm nears and passes over New Zealand reflecting any updates and changes in Predictwind's weather feeds, and the actual data being recorded.

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), PredictWind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and PredictWind is probably the most used app on the Sail-World iPhone.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.

GAC Pindar Superyacht ServicesKilwell - 6Bakewell-White Yacht Design

Related Articles

America's Cup - Arbitration Panel Hearing over Kiwi Qualifier for July
ACEA CEO, Russell Coutts has confirmed that the Arbitration Panel will hold its first Hearing in July. In a yet to be published interview in Sail-World, America’s Cup Events Authority CEO, Russell Coutts has confirmed that the Arbitration Panel will hold its first Hearing in July. This is the first official indication that the three person Arbitration Panel had even been formed, however Sail-World’s sources indicated that it had been empanelled since last January, possibly earlier.
Posted today at 3:19 am
Rio 2016 - The Qualification Games - Part 2
Yachting NZ's refusal to nominate in three classes won in the first round of 2016 Olympic Qualification is unprecedented Yachting New Zealand's refusal to nominate in three classes won in the first round of 2016 Olympic Qualification is without precedent. Subject to Appeal, the Kiwis have signaled that they will reject 30% of the positions gained in the ISAF World Sailing Championships in Santander in 2014.
Posted on 22 May
Gladwell's Line - World Sailing changes tack after IOC windshift
Over the past year, we've given the International Sailing Federation (now re-badged as World Sailing) a bit of stick Over the past year, we've given the International Sailing Federation (now re-badged as World Sailing) a bit of stick. Every blow well earned over issues such as the pollution at Rio, the Israeli exclusion abomination plus a few more. But now World Sailing is getting it right.
Posted on 21 May
Rio 2016 - The Qualification Games - Part 1
Antipodean selection shenanigans aside, the Qualification system for the Rio Olympics appears to be achieving its goals Antipodean selection shenanigans aside, the Qualification system for the Rio Olympics appears to be achieving goals set in the Olympic Commission report of 2010. Around 64 countries are expected to be represented in Rio de Janeiro in August. That is a slight increase on Qingdao and Weymouth, but more importantly a full regional qualification system is now in place
Posted on 19 May
Taming the beast-a conversation with Stuart Meurer of Parker Hannifin
While AC72 cats were fast, they difficult to control, so Oracle partnered with Parker Hannifin to innovate a better way. If you watched videos of the AC72s racing in the 34th America’s Cup (2013), you’re familiar with the mind-boggling speeds that are possible when wingsail-powered catamarans switch from displacement sailing to foiling mode. While foiling is fast, there’s no disguising the platform’s inherent instability. Now, Oracle Team USA has teamed up with Parker Hannifin to innovate a better way.
Posted on 18 May
From foiling Moths to Olympic starting lines-a Q&A with Bora Gulari
Bora Gulari’s is representing the USA at the Rio 2016 Olympics in the Nacra 17 class, along with teammate Louisa Chafee. Bora Gulari (USA) has made a strong name for himself within high-performance sailing circles, with wins at the 2009 and 2013 Moth Worlds. In between, he broke the 30-knort barrier and was the 2009 US SAILING Rolex Yachtsman of the Year. His latest challenge is representing the USA at the Rio 2016 Olympics in the Nacra 17 class as skipper, along with his teammate Louisa Chafee.
Posted on 12 May
Concern for Zika at Rio Olympics is now deadly serious
Alphabet soup is one description that has thus far not been used for either Guanabara Bay, Alphabet soup is one description that has thus far not been used for either Guanabara Bay, or the Rio Olympics. Many others have, and they were apt, but things have changed. So here now we have a situation where one man, Associate Professor Amir Attaran, who does have a more than decent string of letters after his name, is bringing nearly as many facts to bear as references at the article's end
Posted on 12 May
The importance of being Alive
Since buying the stunningly pretty Reichel-Pugh canting keel 66-footer, and re-naming her Alive, Since buying the stunningly pretty Reichel-Pugh canting keel 66-footer, and re-naming her Alive, the team have lined up for a lot of things, won plenty and nabbed a record, as well. She’s presently in a yard in the Philippines having a minor refit in readiness for the Australian season. It will commence with the upcoming Brisbane to Keppel and then head sharply into this year’s Hobart.
Posted on 10 May
Zhik - The brand born of a notion, not its history
here is probably every reason that ocean rhymes with notion. Zhik’s tagline is officially marketed as Made For Water There is probably every reason that ocean rhymes with notion. Zhik’s tagline has been officially marketed as Made For Water, and this is precisely what the company has done for the last eight years before the succinct and apt strapline came from out of R&D and into mainstream visibility.
Posted on 8 May
Shape of next Volvo Ocean Race revealed at Southern Spars - Part 1
Southern Spars has been confirmed as the supplier of spars for the 2017-18 Volvo Ocean Race. In mid-April, Race Director, Jack Lloyd and Stopover Manager Richard Mason outlined the changes expected for the 40,000nm Race during a tour of Southern Spars 10,000sq metre specialist spar construction facility. A total of up to seven boats is expected to enter, but time is running out for the construction of any new boats.
Posted on 3 May