Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- October 30, 2013 - ANZAC drift

by Collinson FX on 31 Oct 2013
Giacomo (Jim Delegat) - Start of Coastal Classic 2013, Waitemata Harbour, October 25, 2013 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 30, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The days of economic fundamentals driving the markets are long gone, now the Fed has introduced their new economic regime of Monetary Expansionism. The unprecedented period of duplicity by the Fed has created a new monetary utopia and damn the consequences! This is the new reality....'good news is good news and bad news is good news!'.

The Fed meets today with the outcome announced tonight, with the likely full extension of QE infinity with the possibility of an expansion. The equity bubble has continued to stretch, with no prospect of a let up in the flood of liquidity. The only threat is a reality prick which may cause panic in equity, currency and commodity markets. The trigger for this will be reflected in the Bond market so any spike in US 10 year bonds will be the canary in the mine.

Equities again surged with the news that Consumer Confidence fell by the most in 2 years and Retail Sales contracting 0.1%!? S&P Home Prices rose 0.93% to 12.83%, some good news to a faltering economy.

The Dollar rebounded, with the EUR slipping to 1.3750 and the GBP 1.6030. Risk currencies reflected some of nervous reality, with the AUD dropping to 0.945 and the KIWI drifting to 0.8250. All eyes remain on the Fed's announcement tonight.


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 29, 2013

The Fed meets for two days tonight and the outcome will be keenly awaited with Central Bank stimulus the main driver of equity bubbles.

Some have suggested that the weak economic data may prevent the introduction of Fed tapering but now a few are suggested enhanced monetary stimulus!

The 'all in' monetary policy would also be attractive to the doves of which nominee, Yellen, is certainly one. US Industrial and Manufacturing Production was mixed and the Dallas Fed Activity reported a decline in activity. Exisiting Home Sales also declined, by a further 5.6%,providing further evidence of a softness in the housing market despite record low interest rates.

The Dollar stabilised momentarily, with the EUR trading below 1.3800 and the GBP 1.6150. Risk currencies were steady with the AUD 0.9550 and the KIWI trading just below 0.8300. All eyes will be on the Fed and other Central bank activity, including the mighty RBNZ, which may offer a surprise!


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.



























































































































































































.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Dec 2 - The (US) Dollar remains king!
The AUD regaining 0.7400, while the KIWI stalled around 0.7050. The Dollar was steady, but remains bid, with the EUR trading 1.0625 and the Yen 114.40! The GBP has fared well, moving back to 1.2600, as a kindred spirit to a Trump USA. The commodity currencies have solidified, with the AUD regaining 0.7400, while the KIWI stalled around 0.7050. Onwards and upwards for markets and the Dollar remains king!
Posted on 1 Dec
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Dec 1 - OPEC defies pundits
The AUD lost a big figure, to trade below 0.7400, while the NZD slipped to 0.7075. OPEC have defied all the sceptics and done a deal! The Cartel have agreed to cut Oil production by 4.5%, allowing Oil prices to surge towards $50/barrel, feeding Energy companies. This is huge news in the energy space but solidarity will have to be seen to be believed!?
Posted on 1 Dec
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 30 - Oil drops to $45/barrel
NZD breaks 0.7100, while the AUD looks towards 0.7500 OPEC confidence is low, with a diverse group not expected to agree to any supply restrictions, pushing Oil back to $45/barrel. The USD has settled into a lull, which has boosted resurgent commodity prices, as growth drives demand. The associated currencies have been beneficiaries, with the NZD breaking 0.7100, while the AUD looks towards 0.7500.
Posted on 30 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 29 - Iran undermines oil price
The KIWI has spiked back to 0.7050, while the AUD has pushed to 0.7460 Oil prices are being watched closely, with OPEC meeting this week, all keenly awaiting the outcome. Iran has re-entered the market and this has undermined any supply caps previously agreed.
Posted on 29 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 26/27 - Markets back in sync
The AUD closed the week at 0.7430, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000, driven by Dollar behaviour. Markets are now back in sync, with good economic news, driving positive reactions in demand for equities and commodities. Post-GFC markets have been upside down, with negative economic data driving equities up, due to Central Bank interventionist monetary policy.
Posted on 28 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 25 - KIWI drops below 70c
The AUD has attempted to hold 0.7400, while the NZD has slipped below 0.7000 The associated currencies have not responded accordingly, due to reserve strength, which should flow through to improved trade with rising returns from both commodity prices and softer currencies. The AUD has attempted to hold 0.7400, while the NZD has slipped below 0.7000, with local trade data released in local markets an influence. Japanese CPI data, will reflect growth, impacting Asian trade.
Posted on 25 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 24 - US surges as EUR stagnates
The NZD is now testing the big, big figure of 0.7000, on the downside, while the AUD slipped below 0.7400. US Markets continued to benefit the Trump surge, with equities hitting record levels, while the Dollar continued the bull run. The massive spike in confidence has fed risk appetite and prompted markets to flourish going in to the long Thanksgiving weekend.
Posted on 24 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 23 - Surfing the Trump Hump
The AUD attempts to regain 0.7400, while the NZD consolidates above 0.7000 Equity markets continued to pile on the runs, exploring record new territory, riding the 'Trump bump'! Economic data release was slow in the US, in a shortened holiday week, allowing post-election trends to continue. The Dollar consolidated after some profit taking
Posted on 23 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 22 - KIWI and AUD bounce back
NZD bounces back to 0.7050, while the AUD hit 0.7350 The GBP also received a welcome boost, jumping back to 1.1250, while the Yen hit 111.15. Equities charged north, to record levels, with the surge in renewed confidence. Markets are eating up the prospect of the new Trump regime! (S-W: US President-elect Trump has just announced that he will pull USA out of the TPP agreement on his first day of office along with other measures.)
Posted on 21 Nov
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Nov 20 - More trust Trump than Feds
The Yen has surged through 110.50, while the Pounds initial resistance, has stuttered. Equity and Bond Markets consolidated after the huge Post-Trump election. Bond yields have continued to rally strongly, now supported by rhetoric from the Fed, although talk that may be considered this time. The Fed has promised numerous rate rises in the calendar year, but has failed to deliver, 'printing' money with gay abandon! Trump has promised fiscal expansion, tax cuts and growth.
Posted on 20 Nov