Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- October 3, 2013 - Battlin' on

by Collinson FX on 4 Oct 2013
18ft Skiffs San Francisco, USA © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 3, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The US Government battled through the second day of partial shutdown with equity markets losing further ground entering the bear heaven...October! The lack of confidence, bred from uncertainty, aggravated by the prospect of the debt ceiling debate, could result in some serious damage to the worlds largest economy.

Default and downgrade would blow the socks off confidence and hammer global bond prices. These are all considerations and markets do not like them. The USD slipped, with the EUR testing 1.3600 and the GBP consolidating above 1.6220. Obama has called in Congressional leaders to find a solution, but his ineffective leadership has plagued the US in many spheres over his tenure.

Commodity prices firmed, giving the AUD a boost to 0.9380, after some steady local Building Approval data and trade numbers. The KIWI held the important 0.8300, but remains a risk currency to be 'handled with care'.

Markets remain reactionary to Political developments in the US, as current negotiations may determine the coming debt crises.



Collinson FX market Commentary: October 2, 2013

The US Government shut down and 800,000 Federal workers receive a furlough but the world did not come to an end!? Surely the loss of some 800,000 Federal workers is not going to destroy the global economy and the markets decided that too. This can only be temporary as they do perform some necessary tasks and the outcome may determine the result of the real fight looming.....the Debt Ceiling debate!

It is the compromise reached over these actions that may determine a change in fiscal policy and political ascendancy in the US. The ISM report, released overnight, showed a rise in Manufacturing activity in the US which may encourage thoughts of the dreaded tapering. The EUR remained flat, trading 1.3530, after some lackadaisical PMI Manufacturing data releases and flat Employment statistics. Commodities drifted lower with Chinese Manufacturing PMI showing no real signs of imminent break out recovery.

The impact on the AUD was inverse, as the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% and some positive economic reports. Australian PMI rose to 51.7 from 46.4, with New Home Sales rallying by 3.4% and Retail Sales improving by 0.4%. Economic data improvement may be a good sign domestically with the adults taking over Government.

The KIWI did not fare as well drifting to 0.8275 correcting a recent surge in the Trans-Tasman cross rate. Look for plenty more economic data and Geo-Political action to drive volatile markets.



Collinson FX market Commentary: October 1, 2013

Equity markets fell again overnight as the pending US Government shutdown appears more likely.

The deadlines are disappearing and it seems likely the shut down will occur with the Debt Ceiling debate looming large. Uncertainty prevailed overnight and another volatile October seems to be in the offing. Equities hate the uncertainty and the steady meltdown continues. The USD is not as attractive in the face of all the political warfare and the GBP continues to book heavy gains, rising to 1.6180.

Even the single European currency took heart and rallied to 1.3525. Commodity currencies continued to be beneficiaries with the KIWI breaking 0.8300 after a rise in business confidence.

The AUD also managed to break back over the 0.9300 in spite of adverse local currents. Attention will be focused on the US Government so politics will drive markets over the next 24 hours!


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 29 - Dust settles on Brexit
The dust is starting to settle post Brexit. Equity markets are regaining some lustre as reality dawns. The dust is starting to settle post Brexit. Equity markets are regaining some lustre as reality dawns. The British PM met with European leaders, bring a certain reality home, while warning of an amicable divorce. Markets are looking for certainty and confidence, while the Dollar charges on.
Posted today at 2:20 pm
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 28 - Europe bleeds post-Brexit
European equities continue to haemorrhage, suggesting the Brexit may impact the EU more than the UK The EUR held steady on 1.1000, despite safety flows to the USD and Yen. European equities continue to haemorrhage, suggesting the Brexit may impact the EU more than the UK, shedding almost 12% in the two post Brexit fallout. The FTSE has only dropped 6% since the poll, while US markets even less, with risk of further exits in the offing.
Posted on 28 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 26 - Europe is biggest loser
The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally, assuming the greatest trade nation status it once occupied. Buy GBP's! More exports for NZ and Australia! The Dollar was the safe haven play as expected.
Posted on 25 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 25 - Markets initially hope IN
Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated, with equities surging and the Dollar surrendering recent gains. The results will be out soon enough, but the implications are clear, with the GBP surging to 1.4915. The retreat in the Dollar was reflected across the board, with the EUR rising to 1.1350
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 23 - Markets on eggshells
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Yellen, the Fed President, completed her second day in front of law makers. She cited the disastrous Non Farm Payrolls numbers last month, referring to it as 'transitory', confirming interest rate rises. Rhetoric is fairly empty. although hugely important to markets, driving the Dollar lower.
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 24 - Waiting for Brexit
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. The Dollar is treading water, ahead of the Brexit vote, with the EUR holding below 1.1300 and the JPY crawled above 104.00! The GBP remains below 1.4700, recovering with the resurgent 'remain' campaign, although the race will be tight. Bookies are overwhelmingly with the status quo, so it is hard to see a radical result, unfortunately.
Posted on 23 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 22 - Brexit swing spooks Brits
The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. The AUD breached 0.7500 overnight, but settled back around 0.7470, driven by a drifting Dollar. The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. All eyes remain on the UK vote, which will consume markets for the entire week, with the latest polls driving currencies and equities.
Posted on 22 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 21 - Brexit poll points to stay
UK Brexit polls turned sharply over the weekend, surging in a reversal, leaning back to the remain campaign. Commodity prices regained some momentum, bolstering the associated currencies, pushing the NZD to 0.7100 and the AUD to 0.7450. This is a week where the referendum will dominate markets and change seems unlikely. The dire warnings and pressure internally and externally are overwhelming.
Posted on 21 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 18 - Bookies tip Brits to stay
The KIWI has attracted further interest, post GDP, trading around 0.7050. The aftermath of the murder of the Yorkshire MP has left an unnatural silence hanging of the suspended Brexit debate. The intermission is likely to end in a subtle finger pointing from the 'stay' campaign, as desperation rises, to combat polls. The bookies still have the remain mob winning, which is probably likely, as change is more difficult.
Posted on 19 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 17 - GDP rise pumps KIWI
NZ GDP was better than expected, rising 0.7%. This added further fuel to the currency, which jumped back to 0.7040 NZ GDP was better than expected, rising 0.7%, leading to a rise of 2.8% annually. This added further fuel to the currency, which jumped back to 0.7040, reflecting the positive state of growth in comparison to other western economies. The AUD slipped back to 0.7350, despite steady Employment data, with the pending election consuming the local scene.
Posted on 17 Jun