Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- October 3, 2013 - Battlin' on

by Collinson FX on 4 Oct 2013
18ft Skiffs San Francisco, USA © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 3, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The US Government battled through the second day of partial shutdown with equity markets losing further ground entering the bear heaven...October! The lack of confidence, bred from uncertainty, aggravated by the prospect of the debt ceiling debate, could result in some serious damage to the worlds largest economy.

Default and downgrade would blow the socks off confidence and hammer global bond prices. These are all considerations and markets do not like them. The USD slipped, with the EUR testing 1.3600 and the GBP consolidating above 1.6220. Obama has called in Congressional leaders to find a solution, but his ineffective leadership has plagued the US in many spheres over his tenure.

Commodity prices firmed, giving the AUD a boost to 0.9380, after some steady local Building Approval data and trade numbers. The KIWI held the important 0.8300, but remains a risk currency to be 'handled with care'.

Markets remain reactionary to Political developments in the US, as current negotiations may determine the coming debt crises.



Collinson FX market Commentary: October 2, 2013

The US Government shut down and 800,000 Federal workers receive a furlough but the world did not come to an end!? Surely the loss of some 800,000 Federal workers is not going to destroy the global economy and the markets decided that too. This can only be temporary as they do perform some necessary tasks and the outcome may determine the result of the real fight looming.....the Debt Ceiling debate!

It is the compromise reached over these actions that may determine a change in fiscal policy and political ascendancy in the US. The ISM report, released overnight, showed a rise in Manufacturing activity in the US which may encourage thoughts of the dreaded tapering. The EUR remained flat, trading 1.3530, after some lackadaisical PMI Manufacturing data releases and flat Employment statistics. Commodities drifted lower with Chinese Manufacturing PMI showing no real signs of imminent break out recovery.

The impact on the AUD was inverse, as the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% and some positive economic reports. Australian PMI rose to 51.7 from 46.4, with New Home Sales rallying by 3.4% and Retail Sales improving by 0.4%. Economic data improvement may be a good sign domestically with the adults taking over Government.

The KIWI did not fare as well drifting to 0.8275 correcting a recent surge in the Trans-Tasman cross rate. Look for plenty more economic data and Geo-Political action to drive volatile markets.



Collinson FX market Commentary: October 1, 2013

Equity markets fell again overnight as the pending US Government shutdown appears more likely.

The deadlines are disappearing and it seems likely the shut down will occur with the Debt Ceiling debate looming large. Uncertainty prevailed overnight and another volatile October seems to be in the offing. Equities hate the uncertainty and the steady meltdown continues. The USD is not as attractive in the face of all the political warfare and the GBP continues to book heavy gains, rising to 1.6180.

Even the single European currency took heart and rallied to 1.3525. Commodity currencies continued to be beneficiaries with the KIWI breaking 0.8300 after a rise in business confidence.

The AUD also managed to break back over the 0.9300 in spite of adverse local currents. Attention will be focused on the US Government so politics will drive markets over the next 24 hours!


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 24 - Trump turns down volume
The weaker reserve aided the bounce in the KIWI, which jumped to 0.7225, while the AUD regained 0.7700. The Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, made observations overnight regarding tax that did unsettle the Dollar. Mnuchin questioned the 'border tax' and pointed out tax cuts, expected before August, would not flow through to the economy until 2018.
Posted on 23 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 22 - US Dollar resumes rally
The rising reserve has kept the AUD below 0.7700, while the NZD has drifted back to 0.7150. The Dollar resumed the Trump rally, with the EUR falling to 1.0550, while the Yen traded 113.50. Commodities have fared well, although the rising reserve has kept the AUD below 0.7700, while the NZD has drifted back to 0.7150. NZ Dairy Prices were weak and assisted the NZRB's dialogue, in terms of currency, although the story remains the US Dollar.
Posted on 22 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 21 - Pence steadies Europe
The AUD remained below 0.7700, while the NZD drifted below 0.7200, looking for support from the Dairy Auction. US equities settled in a quiet open to a holiday weekend. The Dollar was also steady, with the EUR trading 1.0600, while the Yen held above 113.00. The AUD remained below 0.7700, while the NZD drifted below 0.7200, looking for support from the Dairy Auction.
Posted on 20 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 17 - Bullish markets in US
The AUD was softened by the news, slipping below 0.7700, while the NZD jumped to 0.7225 Australian Employment data was mixed, with Unemployment falling to 5.7%, but this was tempered by a fall in full time employment. The AUD was softened by the news, slipping below 0.7700, while the NZD jumped to 0.7225. Markets are very bullish and this is likely to continue, although action must follow rhetoric in the US.
Posted on 17 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 16 - Markets have a gay day
AUD looking at 0.7700, while the NZD jumped to 0.7200 The market rally continued with gay abandon, while Trump met with BB Netanyahu at the White House, turning his attention to a peace solution in the Middle East. He also found time to meet with Retailers, for the first time, which was welcomed with a strong rally in Retail Sales.
Posted on 16 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 15 - US touts interest rate rise
The AUD slipped back to 0.7640, while the NZD dipped below 0.7150, also hit by a bullish reserve. Fed President Yellen made her bi-annual appearance in front of congress informing them of expected rate rises during the current year. She cited growth and inflation as the reason for interest rate rises and that it would be wise to address them sooner rather than later.
Posted on 14 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 11 - Kiwi flounders as AUS surges
The blow dealt by the RBNZ has been sustained, with the currency floundering below 0.7200 The blow dealt by the RBNZ has been sustained, with the currency floundering below 0.7200, while the AUD marches towards 0.7700. This has provoked a sudden and substantial reversal in the cross rate. The coming week sees an avalanche of global economic data releases although it is hard to see Trump not dominating markets.
Posted on 11 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 10 - NZD collapses on RBNZ stall
The NZD fell from above 0.7300, to trade 0.7175; the AUD remained steady, trading around 0.7625 The RBNZ left rates unchanged, in their latest Monetary statement, shifting the bias from easing to neutral. Many expected a more bullish approach to interest rates, but the Central Bank predicted no action until 2019. This did not gel with reality. This reading of the monetary situation triggered a collapse in the NZD, which fell from above 0.7300, to trade 0.7175!
Posted on 10 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 9 - All quiet on US front
The Dollar was steady, with the EUR trading below 1.0700, while the Yen holds around 112.00. A quiet night of trade on equity and currency markets with little economic data releases or action on the Trump front. Trump is still immersed in the immigration ban and pushing for his Cabinet approvals in the Senate. You can't keep a good man down for long so we can expect more fireworks to impact markets.
Posted on 9 Feb
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Feb 8 - No rates move from RBA
The AUD drifted lower to 0.7625, while the NZD consolidated above 0.7300, boosted by a strong inflation report. The RBA left rates unchanged, as expected, leaving the interest rate differential the potential to close on Fed rate rises. The AUD drifted lower to 0.7625, while the NZD consolidated above 0.7300, boosted by a strong inflation report. The NZ Dairy auction also booked marginal gains, allowing the currency some license, on the upside.
Posted on 7 Feb