Please select your home edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- October 3, 2013 - Battlin' on

by Collinson FX on 4 Oct 2013
18ft Skiffs San Francisco, USA © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 3, 2013!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The US Government battled through the second day of partial shutdown with equity markets losing further ground entering the bear heaven...October! The lack of confidence, bred from uncertainty, aggravated by the prospect of the debt ceiling debate, could result in some serious damage to the worlds largest economy.

Default and downgrade would blow the socks off confidence and hammer global bond prices. These are all considerations and markets do not like them. The USD slipped, with the EUR testing 1.3600 and the GBP consolidating above 1.6220. Obama has called in Congressional leaders to find a solution, but his ineffective leadership has plagued the US in many spheres over his tenure.

Commodity prices firmed, giving the AUD a boost to 0.9380, after some steady local Building Approval data and trade numbers. The KIWI held the important 0.8300, but remains a risk currency to be 'handled with care'.

Markets remain reactionary to Political developments in the US, as current negotiations may determine the coming debt crises.

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 2, 2013

The US Government shut down and 800,000 Federal workers receive a furlough but the world did not come to an end!? Surely the loss of some 800,000 Federal workers is not going to destroy the global economy and the markets decided that too. This can only be temporary as they do perform some necessary tasks and the outcome may determine the result of the real fight looming.....the Debt Ceiling debate!

It is the compromise reached over these actions that may determine a change in fiscal policy and political ascendancy in the US. The ISM report, released overnight, showed a rise in Manufacturing activity in the US which may encourage thoughts of the dreaded tapering. The EUR remained flat, trading 1.3530, after some lackadaisical PMI Manufacturing data releases and flat Employment statistics. Commodities drifted lower with Chinese Manufacturing PMI showing no real signs of imminent break out recovery.

The impact on the AUD was inverse, as the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% and some positive economic reports. Australian PMI rose to 51.7 from 46.4, with New Home Sales rallying by 3.4% and Retail Sales improving by 0.4%. Economic data improvement may be a good sign domestically with the adults taking over Government.

The KIWI did not fare as well drifting to 0.8275 correcting a recent surge in the Trans-Tasman cross rate. Look for plenty more economic data and Geo-Political action to drive volatile markets.

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 1, 2013

Equity markets fell again overnight as the pending US Government shutdown appears more likely.

The deadlines are disappearing and it seems likely the shut down will occur with the Debt Ceiling debate looming large. Uncertainty prevailed overnight and another volatile October seems to be in the offing. Equities hate the uncertainty and the steady meltdown continues. The USD is not as attractive in the face of all the political warfare and the GBP continues to book heavy gains, rising to 1.6180.

Even the single European currency took heart and rallied to 1.3525. Commodity currencies continued to be beneficiaries with the KIWI breaking 0.8300 after a rise in business confidence.

The AUD also managed to break back over the 0.9300 in spite of adverse local currents. Attention will be focused on the US Government so politics will drive markets over the next 24 hours!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see: and

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 27 - Aussie CPI jump surprise
The Australian CPI jumped to 0.7%, greater than expected, boosting the AUD over 0.7700 The Australian CPI jumped to 0.7%, greater than expected, boosting the AUD over 0.7700. This was not sustained in overnight markets, with the AUD slipping back to 0.7650, while the NZD traded around 0.7150. NZ domestic markets will consider Trade data today and speculate on the important US GDP number to be released at the end of the week.
Posted today at 7:13 am
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 26 - Conflicted Dollar
The NZD stabilised around 0.7150, while the AUD managed to consolidate above 0.7600 The NZD stabilised around 0.7150, while the AUD managed to consolidate above 0.7600, ahead of the important CPI number release today. The inflation data is expected to show a rise in inflation and thus growth. This would support the local currency but any failure in the CPI data would impose significant downward pressure on the AUD.
Posted on 25 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 25 - Oil does a quiet slide
The rising reserve and weaker commodity prices impacted the associated currencies, with the AUD testing 0.7600 The rising reserve and weaker commodity prices impacted the associated currencies, with the AUD testing 0.7600, while the NZD dropped back to 0.7110. Central Bank activity remains the major driver of currency direction, with economic data release, influencing the discussion.
Posted on 25 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 22 - USD finds some legs
The AUD has crashed back to 0.7600, while the NZD has finally found logic, falling to 0.7150. General economic data has been benign confirming the weak economic situation that has prevailed post-GFC. Political leadership is reflected well in the economy. The Dollar found some legs, with the EUR moving back to 1.0850, while the GBP slipped to 1.2225. Commodities drifted, impacting the associated currencies, eventually .
Posted on 24 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 15 - Positive sign from US sales
AUD breaks back above 0.7600, while the NZD looks towards 0.7100 again US Retail Sales met expectations and were positive! This gave the markets some enthusiasm and lead to further speculation for the much vaunted Fed interest rate rise. This took the shine off the equity rally. The University of Michigan confidence report was decidedly negative
Posted on 17 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 14 - Chinese exports crash
The NZD rallied back towards 0.7100, while the AUD floundered around 0.7560, reversing the recent cross rate moves. Chinese Trade data dominated global markets overnight, with little economic data release of import, in Europe or the USA. Chinese exports crashed 10% for the month (5.6%p.a.), while imports fell 1.9%. The dreadful trade data confirmed the weak global demand for the world factories product.
Posted on 14 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 13- It's the US economy, Stupid!
The AUD has ceded 0.7600, now trading 0.7560, while the KIWI tried to build a firewall above 0.7000. Current US GDP growth is a depressing 1%, with all reviews on the downside, reflecting the parlous state of the economy. The Fed telegraphed four rate rises this year and none have eventuated so it is hard to believe the rhetoric.
Posted on 14 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 12- Light week grinds idle minds
AUD dipping to 0.7540, while the NZD dipped to 0.7050 The EUR slipped to 1.1050, while the GBP tested new lows, falling to 1.2200. Commodity currencies were not immune, with the AUD dipping to 0.7540, while the NZD dipped to 0.7050. A light economic data week allows diversion and musing over Central Bank perceived actions.
Posted on 12 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 11 - Oil surges on Russian deal
Recent weakness in the NZ Dollar, pushed the KIWI back to 0.7120, while the AUD held above 0.7600. Oil prices surged to $51/barrel after President Putin confirmed collusion on a global cap on production with the OPEC cartel. German Trade data continued to show resilience with both Exports and Imports showing healthy gains.
Posted on 10 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 8/9 - GBP haemorrhage continues
The KIWI stabilised around 0.7150, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7600 The EUR pushed back towards 1.1200, while the GBP continued to haemorrhage, falling to 1.2430. Sterling will stimulate trade and when the rebound commences, watch the backlash, as there will be a correction. The KIWI stabilised around 0.7150, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7600, despite respective efforts from Central Banks.
Posted on 10 Oct