Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- November 2, 2012 - US strong

by Collinson FX on 2 Nov 2012
Image of the Day Luna Rossa AC72 First sailing day in the Hauraki Gulf, Auckland-NZ, for AC72 Luna Rossa: Carlo Borlenghi/Luna Rossa http://www.lunarossachallenge.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 2, 2012

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets rallied strongly Friday as the recovery from Hurricane Sandy powered ahead and becomes a memory for most that were not directly affected. November kicked off strongly with a rally in equities and commodities with support from stronger economic data.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 51.7 reinforcing recent gains pushing the sector to support the recovery. Consumer Confidence hit 72.2 from 68.4 and a four year high signalling a turnaround with many hopes pinned on the Romney victory. The ADP Jobs reported that the Private Sector added 158,000 new jobs under their new calculation techniques.

Unfortunately the Challenger Jobs reported a rise in Job cuts expected. The rise was 41% on the previous month and 11.6% on last year. The mixed reports mean an even greater focus on Non-Farm Payrolls expected to add 125,000 jobs with Unemployment to remain just below 8.0%.

The EUR traded 1.2930 and the GBP 1.6120 with a resurgent US supporting the Dollar. Commodities traded stronger with the AUD boosted by strong data from China.

The Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose again supporting demand pushing the AUD to just under 1.0400 and the KIWI rallying up to 0.8255. Confidence is filtering through the economy with the Presidential Election next Tuesday and many seeing a growing light in the shortening tunnel. Relief may be at hand!


Collinson FX market Commentary: November 1, 2012

US Financial markets reopened for the first time since the devastation wreaked havoc upon the North East of America. Thin trading ensued with damage effecting capacity and preoccupying many.

The Chicago PMI rose to 49.9 which is an improvement but remains in contraction mode. The election campaign will resume with the final day Tuesday and it couldn't be higher stakes. The EUR rose to 1.2950 after EU unemployment number came in at 11.6% and Inflation remained flat. Chinese leading indicators moved up to 100.49 boosting demand and commodity currencies.

The AUD rallied to 1.0370 supported also by strong rises in Building Approvals and Permits. The KIWI also held around.8200 boosted by demand and a strong housing sector. Attention turns to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls in the US Friday with some revised numbers from ADP.

Private Sector Job claims were revised lower for September and October and will be a guide to the NFP. This will be the last major scheduled economic event before America hits the Polls so it could be hardly more important!


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 31, 2012

US Financial Markets were closed as 'Super Storm Sandy' devastated the North East of America.

In a region not used to storms of such magnitude, Sandy committed enormous damage which will require huge efforts and resources to remedy. Markets remain closed until tonight but expectations are not high. Mother Nature does not have a great deal of consideration, in terms of timing, reference the Presidential Election cycle although it is probably a welcome relief to Swing-State voters.

In Europe markets rose after a relatively successful Italian Bond issue and Spanish GDP Contraction in line with expectations. EU Industrial, Economic and Consumer confidence all drifted lower as to be expected with economies contracting under the austerity measures engulfing the Economic Zone.

The EUR traded 1.2950 and the GBP 1.6050 with attention focused on the US Super Storm. Commodity currencies remain attractive as an investment away from the mayhem of the US and Europe. The AUD traded up to 1.0350 after New Home Sales fell 3.7% extending a decline in the housing market. The KIWI tested 0.8200, but remains susceptible to market vulnerabilities.

The focus will be the US Presidential Elections until Melbourne Cup day when we can all take breather and watch the RBA!


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 30, 2012

Markets closed in the US as the Super-Storm Sandy makes its way up the East Coast of the US spreading mayhem.

The storm has closed financial markets and will probably remain closed until the passing allows a return to normality and a clean-up operation can begin. This has not only disrupted the financial markets but forced the culmination of the Presidential Election campaign to alter course.

In Europe markets drifted lower as authorities continue to debate the Greek bailout with Labour reforms now a question vigorously contested along with debt write-off. The overwhelming debt levels will demand debt write-off as the budget will not service the current levels. Authorities do not want to address this issue as it debunks the argument for the bailout in the first place.

The funding of Greece was portrayed as a series of loans to transition Greece to a viable functioning EU member. The EUR traded around 1.2900 and the GBP 1.6025 with members addressing the EUR$1 Trillion budget and attempting cuts of EUR$50 Billion.

It is astounding that these bureaucrats have a budget this size on top of and in addition to all member National Budgets!?!?.

Antipodean currencies dragged into the boredom with not much movement,AUD/USD 1.0300 & NZD/USD .8155.

The markets will remain static while the weather overwhelms the US with a focus on employment later in the week and the crescendo of the Presidential elections.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 20 - KIWI plunges on Govt change
Markets immediately reacted with the KIWI plunging towards 0.7000 NZ finally got a new Government, with the NZ First Party joining with the Labour/Greens, forming the super Rainbow coalition. Markets immediately reacted with the KIWI plunging towards 0.7000! NZ First got four Cabinet posts and the Deputy PM role.
Posted on 19 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 19 - Dow surges again
The AUD trades below 0.7850, while the NZD drifts back towards 0.7100, unsettled by the lack of Government. The AUD trades below 0.7850, while the NZD drifts back towards 0.7100, unsettled by the lack of Government. No Government has yet to be determined, as the soap opera surrounding the formation of Government continues, creating uncertainty which is kryptonite to markets.
Posted on 18 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 18 - Dow hits new high
The RBA named threats which allowed the currency to soften and trade 0.7830 NZ CPI numbers boosted the NZD back to 0.7200, but the RBNZ ruined that scenario citing static inflationary pressures, prompting the NZD to fall back to 0.7150. The RBA released their minutes, which observed tightening monetary policies in many developed countries, but confirmed 'rates would remain low for some time'!
Posted on 18 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 17 - Quiet uncertainty
AUD drifted back to 0.7850, while the NZD slipped to 0.7160 A quiet start to the week, with little economic data being released globally, although many Geo-Political events threaten. China CPI drifted lower, to 1.6%, hitting growth prospects and commodity demand. This translated directly in to the associated currencies, with the AUD drifting back to 0.7850, while the NZD slipped to 0.7160.
Posted on 17 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 14 - Market procrastination
Commodity currencies found some legs, with the AUD pushing through 0.7800, while the NZD managed to regain 0.7100. Political games continue on the NZ political front, with kingmaker Winston Peters, deferring any decision on the new Government another week. Peters is loving his time in the Sun, but uncertainty is not a welcome ingredient to market confidence, while both the public and business tire of his procrastination.
Posted on 13 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 5 - Brexit pressures on UK
The NZD fell back below 0.7150, uncertainty dominating the local market, while the Dairy Auction sales were also weak. The RBA left rates unchanged, at 1.5%, a 14 month trend with no near-term prospect of a change. This initially hit the vulnerable AUD, falling below 0.7800, but recovered in overnight trade. The KIWI has been the underachiever, on the global stage
Posted on 5 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 03 - Markets shocked by shooting
The AUD drifted to 0.7820, while the NZD tested 0.7200, on the downside. Equity markets were surging to record levels to begin another quarter of the 'Trump effect'. The massive rally in confidence is underwritten by executive actions but requires urgent legislative tax reform. The ISM Manufacturing number came in better than expected, outperforming the PMI data from Europe, which was reflected in the Dollar.
Posted on 3 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 30 - NZD undermined by election
The NZD trades around 0.7200, undermined by post-election negotiations, while the AUD drifted to 0.7830. The NZD trades around 0.7200, undermined by post-election negotiations, while the AUD drifted to 0.7830. The RBA rate decision, in the coming week, will provide a summary of economic conditions in the local economy and their place in the world.
Posted on 1 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 28 - Uncertainty reigns supreme
AUD drifted to 0.7880, while the NZD tests 0.7200, on the downside. NZ political uncertainty will undermine confidence, The KIWI looks to hold 0.7200, but uncertainty reigns supreme, as negotiations for a Government fail to commence. The MMP system has resulted in this uncertainty, many times and was only overwhelmed by the previous popularity of former PM, Key. Speculation remains the most popular sport in Aotearoa unsettling markets.
Posted on 27 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 26 - Geopolitics hit currency
The NZD fell back to 0.7250, while the AUD drifted, to trade 0.7940. The EUR fell back to 1.1850, driven by the German election results, while the GBP drifted to 1.3460. The NZ election remains up in the air, with extended post-election negotiations expected, driving uncertainty in the local currency. The NZD fell back to 0.7250, while the AUD drifted, to trade 0.7940.
Posted on 26 Sep