Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- November 2, 2012 - US strong

by Collinson FX on 2 Nov 2012
Image of the Day Luna Rossa AC72 First sailing day in the Hauraki Gulf, Auckland-NZ, for AC72 Luna Rossa: Carlo Borlenghi/Luna Rossa© http://www.lunarossachallenge.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: November 2, 2012

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets rallied strongly Friday as the recovery from Hurricane Sandy powered ahead and becomes a memory for most that were not directly affected. November kicked off strongly with a rally in equities and commodities with support from stronger economic data.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 51.7 reinforcing recent gains pushing the sector to support the recovery. Consumer Confidence hit 72.2 from 68.4 and a four year high signalling a turnaround with many hopes pinned on the Romney victory. The ADP Jobs reported that the Private Sector added 158,000 new jobs under their new calculation techniques.

Unfortunately the Challenger Jobs reported a rise in Job cuts expected. The rise was 41% on the previous month and 11.6% on last year. The mixed reports mean an even greater focus on Non-Farm Payrolls expected to add 125,000 jobs with Unemployment to remain just below 8.0%.

The EUR traded 1.2930 and the GBP 1.6120 with a resurgent US supporting the Dollar. Commodities traded stronger with the AUD boosted by strong data from China.

The Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose again supporting demand pushing the AUD to just under 1.0400 and the KIWI rallying up to 0.8255. Confidence is filtering through the economy with the Presidential Election next Tuesday and many seeing a growing light in the shortening tunnel. Relief may be at hand!


Collinson FX market Commentary: November 1, 2012

US Financial markets reopened for the first time since the devastation wreaked havoc upon the North East of America. Thin trading ensued with damage effecting capacity and preoccupying many.

The Chicago PMI rose to 49.9 which is an improvement but remains in contraction mode. The election campaign will resume with the final day Tuesday and it couldn't be higher stakes. The EUR rose to 1.2950 after EU unemployment number came in at 11.6% and Inflation remained flat. Chinese leading indicators moved up to 100.49 boosting demand and commodity currencies.

The AUD rallied to 1.0370 supported also by strong rises in Building Approvals and Permits. The KIWI also held around.8200 boosted by demand and a strong housing sector. Attention turns to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls in the US Friday with some revised numbers from ADP.

Private Sector Job claims were revised lower for September and October and will be a guide to the NFP. This will be the last major scheduled economic event before America hits the Polls so it could be hardly more important!


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 31, 2012

US Financial Markets were closed as 'Super Storm Sandy' devastated the North East of America.

In a region not used to storms of such magnitude, Sandy committed enormous damage which will require huge efforts and resources to remedy. Markets remain closed until tonight but expectations are not high. Mother Nature does not have a great deal of consideration, in terms of timing, reference the Presidential Election cycle although it is probably a welcome relief to Swing-State voters.

In Europe markets rose after a relatively successful Italian Bond issue and Spanish GDP Contraction in line with expectations. EU Industrial, Economic and Consumer confidence all drifted lower as to be expected with economies contracting under the austerity measures engulfing the Economic Zone.

The EUR traded 1.2950 and the GBP 1.6050 with attention focused on the US Super Storm. Commodity currencies remain attractive as an investment away from the mayhem of the US and Europe. The AUD traded up to 1.0350 after New Home Sales fell 3.7% extending a decline in the housing market. The KIWI tested 0.8200, but remains susceptible to market vulnerabilities.

The focus will be the US Presidential Elections until Melbourne Cup day when we can all take breather and watch the RBA!


Collinson FX market Commentary: October 30, 2012

Markets closed in the US as the Super-Storm Sandy makes its way up the East Coast of the US spreading mayhem.

The storm has closed financial markets and will probably remain closed until the passing allows a return to normality and a clean-up operation can begin. This has not only disrupted the financial markets but forced the culmination of the Presidential Election campaign to alter course.

In Europe markets drifted lower as authorities continue to debate the Greek bailout with Labour reforms now a question vigorously contested along with debt write-off. The overwhelming debt levels will demand debt write-off as the budget will not service the current levels. Authorities do not want to address this issue as it debunks the argument for the bailout in the first place.

The funding of Greece was portrayed as a series of loans to transition Greece to a viable functioning EU member. The EUR traded around 1.2900 and the GBP 1.6025 with members addressing the EUR$1 Trillion budget and attempting cuts of EUR$50 Billion.

It is astounding that these bureaucrats have a budget this size on top of and in addition to all member National Budgets!?!?.

Antipodean currencies dragged into the boredom with not much movement,AUD/USD 1.0300 & NZD/USD .8155.

The markets will remain static while the weather overwhelms the US with a focus on employment later in the week and the crescendo of the Presidential elections.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 26 - Europe is biggest loser
The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally, assuming the greatest trade nation status it once occupied. Buy GBP's! More exports for NZ and Australia! The Dollar was the safe haven play as expected.
Posted on 25 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 25 - Markets initially hope IN
Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated, with equities surging and the Dollar surrendering recent gains. The results will be out soon enough, but the implications are clear, with the GBP surging to 1.4915. The retreat in the Dollar was reflected across the board, with the EUR rising to 1.1350
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 23 - Markets on eggshells
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Yellen, the Fed President, completed her second day in front of law makers. She cited the disastrous Non Farm Payrolls numbers last month, referring to it as 'transitory', confirming interest rate rises. Rhetoric is fairly empty. although hugely important to markets, driving the Dollar lower.
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 24 - Waiting for Brexit
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. The Dollar is treading water, ahead of the Brexit vote, with the EUR holding below 1.1300 and the JPY crawled above 104.00! The GBP remains below 1.4700, recovering with the resurgent 'remain' campaign, although the race will be tight. Bookies are overwhelmingly with the status quo, so it is hard to see a radical result, unfortunately.
Posted on 23 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 22 - Brexit swing spooks Brits
The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. The AUD breached 0.7500 overnight, but settled back around 0.7470, driven by a drifting Dollar. The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. All eyes remain on the UK vote, which will consume markets for the entire week, with the latest polls driving currencies and equities.
Posted on 22 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 21 - Brexit poll points to stay
UK Brexit polls turned sharply over the weekend, surging in a reversal, leaning back to the remain campaign. Commodity prices regained some momentum, bolstering the associated currencies, pushing the NZD to 0.7100 and the AUD to 0.7450. This is a week where the referendum will dominate markets and change seems unlikely. The dire warnings and pressure internally and externally are overwhelming.
Posted on 21 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 18 - Bookies tip Brits to stay
The KIWI has attracted further interest, post GDP, trading around 0.7050. The aftermath of the murder of the Yorkshire MP has left an unnatural silence hanging of the suspended Brexit debate. The intermission is likely to end in a subtle finger pointing from the 'stay' campaign, as desperation rises, to combat polls. The bookies still have the remain mob winning, which is probably likely, as change is more difficult.
Posted on 19 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 17 - GDP rise pumps KIWI
NZ GDP was better than expected, rising 0.7%. This added further fuel to the currency, which jumped back to 0.7040 NZ GDP was better than expected, rising 0.7%, leading to a rise of 2.8% annually. This added further fuel to the currency, which jumped back to 0.7040, reflecting the positive state of growth in comparison to other western economies. The AUD slipped back to 0.7350, despite steady Employment data, with the pending election consuming the local scene.
Posted on 17 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 16 - US fails to raise interest
NZ Home Sales continue to thrive, in the low rate environment, while the KIWI hits exports. The Dollar slipped after the FOMC, pushing the EUR up to 1.1250, while the JPY moves in to intervention territory in the 105's. The AUD consolidated above 0.7400, immersed in their own pending election, while the NZD holds above 0.7000. NZ Home Sales continue to thrive, in the low rate environment, while the KIWI hits exports.
Posted on 16 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 15 - Brexit consumes markets
The AUD has dipped to 0.7350, while the NZD is testing 0.7000 on the downside. Flows are heading to safety. There was nothing on the economic front to distort markets moves, but there is little to deprive attention from the 'Brexit', with the leave campaign gaining momentum. The EU is vulnerable and the UK exit could tip the scales. We have a whole week to go! The AUD has dipped to 0.7350, while the NZD is testing 0.7000 on the downside. Flows are heading to safety.
Posted on 15 Jun