Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- March 27, 2013 - Confidence returns

by Collinson FX on 27 Mar 2013
Bull Rush - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 2 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 27, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Fears over the Cyprus crises subsided in Europe despite Fitch Rating Agency putting them on a 'Negative Watch'. The Banks are scheduled to open again tonight and that will be strictly controlled to avoid a run on deposits.

It would seem unlikely anyone would be confident enough to leave their funds in there and this could be visually disastrous for other Banks in neighbouring troubled states. The EUR slipped back to 1.2850 and the GBP held steady around 1.5150. US equity markets rallied to new highs after the European crises became more controlled and with some strong domestic economic data.

The Case Shiller Home Price index exploded improving 8.1% although this was slightly tempered by New Home Sales falling 4.6% for the month.Durable Goods Orders rebounded to rise 5.7% reflecting a growing confidence from the Consumer although the confidence measure fell.

The return of confidence boosted the higher yielding AUD back towards the 1.0500 testing critical technical levels on the upside. The KIWI followed, aided by improving Trade Balances. Exports rose and Imports held steady continuing the improving, good economic news of late.

The NZD looks set to test 0.8400 levels in the very near future!


Collinson FX market Commentary: March 26, 2013

Precedents are being set in Europe as the Troika ignore their own rules once again. A new deal has been banded togeather to bail out the recalcitrant Cyprus which breaks foundation rules regarding deposits and bonds. Why do we care?

This undermines faith in the institutions designated to give just that! The adhoc and previously illegal actions of the ECB, have undermined faith in the concept. Currency unity is a completely stupid idea without fiscal union and who would trust the EU to run policy?

The EUR took a hammering after initial confidence slipped. The single currency dropped back to 1.2850 as the GBP treads water at 1.5150. The sitiuation in Europe has highlighted the vulnerability of the single market and the associated currency.

Higher yielding commodity currencies have survived the hit to market confidence with the AUD trading 1.0450 and the KIWI 0.8350. Analysis will reveal the parlous state of Europe and the impact on markets who also need a long hard look in the mirror!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 27 - Oil Production cuts?
The NZD was under pressure, with speculation of RBNZ cuts, adding to worrying trade data. The NZD was under pressure, with speculation of RBNZ cuts, adding to worrying trade data. The trade deficit widened, with a rise in Imports and a fall in Exports, spurred by the overvalued KIWI. The NZD fell to the low 0.72's, but regained some ground overnight, to trade above 0.7250.
Posted today at 3:57 pm
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 25 - The price of Brexit
NZD fell to 0.7230, while the AUD drifted back towards 0.7600 European economic data was benign, as expected, with Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI data flat. French GDP contracted and promises of a future, without Britain, is not bright. The EU has brought in many members, over the years, but most are net 'takers'.
Posted on 26 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 23 - USD continues to sag
NZD clings on to 0.7300. The AUD has pushed above 0.7650, but drifted in late trading, despite a weakening Dollar. The ECB and RBNZ continued the inaction of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The RBNZ has left rates unchanged and seemed content with local economic conditions. The Jaw-boning of the currency continued, but to no avail, as the currency holds around 0.7300.
Posted on 24 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 22 - Bank flicks policy
Commodity currencies moved higher, with the AUD testing 0.7600, while the KIWI consolidates above 0.7300. Markets were dominated by the Fed and the Bank of Japan overnight. The BoJ was the first cab off the rank, announcing a complete upheaval of the Banks Central Bank monetary policy. The attempt is to control asset growth and interest rates through monetary manipulation.
Posted on 22 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 21 - Dairy Auction stunts KIWI
The New Zealand Dairy Auction revealed a halt in recent rises, stunting the currency The Dollar remained steady, with the EUR trading 1.1150, while the GBP slipped below 1.3000. The New Zealand Dairy Auction revealed a halt in recent rises, stunting the currency, with the KIWI attempting to hold 0.7300. Australian consumer confidence was steady, which was reflected in the currency, which traded around 0.7550. All eyes remain on the Fed and the Bank of Japan!
Posted on 21 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 20 - Bloomberg bats for KIWI
Bloomberg has come in to bat for the KIWI, offering justification for the relative currency strength Bloomberg has come in to bat for the KIWI, offering justification for the relative currency strength, citing the 3.6% GDP number. This will undermine any argument the RBNZ has to cut further, but look at comparable interest rates?? The NZD trades around 0.7300, while the AUD holds around 0.7550, fighting a rising reserve.
Posted on 20 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 18 - RBNZ decision factored in?
The AUD fell below 0.7500, while the NZD dropped to 0.7250, perhaps anticipating the coming RBNZ rate decision!? The Pounds momentum seems to be in reverse, with the Dollar aiding to the dovish Bank of England monetary policy. The coming week will not be a huge one for economic data releases, so expect further speculation, with regards Central Bank activity. The AUD fell below 0.7500, while the NZD dropped to 0.7250, perhaps anticipating the coming RBNZ rate decision!?
Posted on 19 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 16 - US shrinks while NZ grows
The NZD also rallied back to 0.7300, boosted by the reserve and better than expected GDP growth The NZD also rallied back to 0.7300, boosted by the reserve and better than expected GDP growth, while Manufacturing PMI was steady. Data just confirms speculation on Central Bank moves and markets will focus on the Fed and Bank of Japan announcements next week!
Posted on 16 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 14 - Opportunity for new theory
The NZD fell more than a big figure, back to 0.7230, while the AUD languished at 0.7450. Oil jumped back to $47/barrel, but the spike was not a boost for commodities in general, more a reaction to supply issues. The NZD fell more than a big figure, back to 0.7230, while the AUD languished at 0.7450. Economic fundamentals are obviously weak, precluding any return to normal monetary policy, allowing the academics to invent new economic theory?!
Posted on 14 Sep
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 10/11 - Presidents create chaos
AUD slips to 0.7540, while the NZD is now testing 0.7300 on the downside The prospect of a rate rise spurred the Dollar against the commodity currencies, with the AUD slipping to 0.7540, while the NZD is now testing 0.7300 on the downside. The coming week is light on economic data release, although Central Bank influence will remain, driving currencies and equities.
Posted on 12 Sep