Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- July 10, 2013 - Bull run continues

by Collinson FX on 11 Jul 2013
Volvo Ocean Race winner, Mike Sanderson helmed Stratis in the Elliott 5.9 fleet (55) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 10, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Equity markets continued the recent bull-run with sentiment on the improve as an acceptance of marginal tapering, which provides continued QE for the forseeable future. The shock will come when reality bites and Central Banks will realise the consequences of the record breaking monetary largesse! The EUR has drifted lower, despite the rising confidence, with the single currency falling below 1.2800.

The GBP fell to 1.4870, wiping out recent gains, after Manufacturing Production fell 2.9% and Industrial Production also down 2.3%. There is little good news out of Europe and Bond yields in the PIIGS nations are once again on the march. The IMF has again reviewed Global growth lower from 3.3 to 3.1%. The US growth has been downgraded from 1.9% to 1.7% and they have recommended continued QE. This is a terrible growth rate for the US but has failed to dampen the positive sentiment.

Equities are on the rise after Alcoa beat expectations opening the earnings season. Aluminium demand is improving and so are earnings expectations which has reinforced positive sentiments across the markets. It is hard to have faith in this rally considering the economic situation and the fiscal crises that faces most western countries which have been supported by record breaking monetary recklessness. Commodities found support with rising US confidence and the KIWI rallied to 0.7840 with rising credit card spending and Home Prices.

The AUD also found support from the markets despite weakening Business Conditions and Confidence. Business is struggling and these reports hit record lows reflecting the decline in investment in Mining. The AUD is again testing 0.9200 but this is externally driven and vulnerabilities remain!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 9, 2013
Markets continued to feed off last weeks positive Jobs data from the US and equities continued to rally strongly. European markets fed of the US lead despite weaker German Industrial Production and falling EU Investor Confidence. Positive news from Greece and Portugal also added to confidence and the EUR stabilised at 1.2875 and the GBP 1.4960. US Markets continued to rally strongly with Alcoa kicking off the earnings season this week.

The stronger Jobs data and acceptance of controlled tapering from the Fed has added to confidence prevailing in the US economic recovery. This has allowed the safety play to settle the Dollar and Bond Yields have also calmed recent spikes. Commodities rebounded and so did the associated currencies with AUD rebounding to just over 0.9100 despite Job Ads falling and unemployment on the rise.

Domestic data is certainly secondary in cause/effect on the currency. Employment is set to deteriorate in line with recent economic domestic data. The KIWI also recovered from the lows to test 0.7800 with local House Sales and Prices flattening out. Central Banks will continue to dictate market direction although local data and US earnings will also have impact.


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 27 - Steady trade data ups KIWI
NZ Trade data was steady and allowed for the NZD to push back above 0.7000, while the AUD flirts with 0.7500 The JPY slipped back to 104.70, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting, while the EUR approached 1.1000. NZ Trade data was steady and allowed for the NZD to push back above 0.7000, while the AUD flirts with 0.7500. All eyes remain on the Fed!
Posted on 26 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 24 - Brit's sentimental slowdown
The AUD traded down to 0.7450, while the KIWI consolidated below 0.7000 There may be signs of a slowdown in the British economy as the Composite and Services PMI both plunged, while EU data held steady. This is not as a result of actual circumstances changing but sentiment.
Posted on 25 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 22 - RBNZ's words undermine NZD
The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000 The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000, undermined by the RBNZ statement telegraphing further interest rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 21 - It's official, No slowdown
The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000 Oil fell to $45/barrel, leading a raft of commodities lower, putting a ceiling on associated currencies. The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000. Central Bank intentions in Australia and NZ are clear, with NZ LVR's, clearing the decks in preparation for rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 20 - Markets make full recovery
The AUD trades below 0.7500, while the NZD is headed towards 0.7000 RBA minutes provided a great summary of global economic conditions and how they impact the Australian situation. The RBA considered the impact of the Brexit and recognised that markets were back to pre-brexit levels, except the GBP
Posted on 20 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - 19 July - Brexit a boon for Brits?
NZ CPI came in at 0.4%, for Q2, missing expectations. This pushed the currency below 0.7100 The tumultuous weekend of terrorism in France and a failed coup in Turkey failed to unsettle markets. Equities and currencies commenced the week quietly with the USD settling and share markets perched just below highs. QE has provided massive amounts of cheap money to supply equity markets
Posted on 19 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 16/17 - French attack hits USD
The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve, with the KIWI drifting back towards 0.7100. Geo-Political events are overwhelming economic events, while Central Bank intervention has driven market moves, filling the space of vacuous global fiscal policies.
Posted on 18 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 15 - RBNZ's surprise adjustment
The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles, allowing commentary to drive the currency back below 0.7200. The RBNZ never seem to quite get it right in the Monetary Policy realm and this interruption is a correction of the last, ham-fisted, statement
Posted on 14 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 13 - Pound surges on confidence
The uncertainty is dissipating and markets are reacting accordingly The GBP surged, with new confidence, pushing to 1.3250. The Japanese PM, Abe, ordered further stimulus from the Bank of Japan and the Yen jumped to 104.75. The Australian Liberals met in Canberra and are awaiting a new cabinet selected by PM, Turnbull. The uncertainty is dissipating and markets are reacting accordingly
Posted on 13 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 12 - Commodities and Oil drop
Commodities drifted lower, with Oil falling below $45/barrel, pushing the associated currencies back. Commodities drifted lower, with Oil falling below $45/barrel, pushing the associated currencies back. The AUD traded 0.7525, while the NZD attempts to hold 0.7200. Markets are calm but expect further Central Bank influence over a relatively quiet economic data release week.
Posted on 13 Jul