Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- July 10, 2013 - Bull run continues

by Collinson FX on 11 Jul 2013
Volvo Ocean Race winner, Mike Sanderson helmed Stratis in the Elliott 5.9 fleet (55) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 10, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Equity markets continued the recent bull-run with sentiment on the improve as an acceptance of marginal tapering, which provides continued QE for the forseeable future. The shock will come when reality bites and Central Banks will realise the consequences of the record breaking monetary largesse! The EUR has drifted lower, despite the rising confidence, with the single currency falling below 1.2800.

The GBP fell to 1.4870, wiping out recent gains, after Manufacturing Production fell 2.9% and Industrial Production also down 2.3%. There is little good news out of Europe and Bond yields in the PIIGS nations are once again on the march. The IMF has again reviewed Global growth lower from 3.3 to 3.1%. The US growth has been downgraded from 1.9% to 1.7% and they have recommended continued QE. This is a terrible growth rate for the US but has failed to dampen the positive sentiment.

Equities are on the rise after Alcoa beat expectations opening the earnings season. Aluminium demand is improving and so are earnings expectations which has reinforced positive sentiments across the markets. It is hard to have faith in this rally considering the economic situation and the fiscal crises that faces most western countries which have been supported by record breaking monetary recklessness. Commodities found support with rising US confidence and the KIWI rallied to 0.7840 with rising credit card spending and Home Prices.

The AUD also found support from the markets despite weakening Business Conditions and Confidence. Business is struggling and these reports hit record lows reflecting the decline in investment in Mining. The AUD is again testing 0.9200 but this is externally driven and vulnerabilities remain!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 9, 2013
Markets continued to feed off last weeks positive Jobs data from the US and equities continued to rally strongly. European markets fed of the US lead despite weaker German Industrial Production and falling EU Investor Confidence. Positive news from Greece and Portugal also added to confidence and the EUR stabilised at 1.2875 and the GBP 1.4960. US Markets continued to rally strongly with Alcoa kicking off the earnings season this week.

The stronger Jobs data and acceptance of controlled tapering from the Fed has added to confidence prevailing in the US economic recovery. This has allowed the safety play to settle the Dollar and Bond Yields have also calmed recent spikes. Commodities rebounded and so did the associated currencies with AUD rebounding to just over 0.9100 despite Job Ads falling and unemployment on the rise.

Domestic data is certainly secondary in cause/effect on the currency. Employment is set to deteriorate in line with recent economic domestic data. The KIWI also recovered from the lows to test 0.7800 with local House Sales and Prices flattening out. Central Banks will continue to dictate market direction although local data and US earnings will also have impact.


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 4 - Brexit bites
Weakness in commodity currencies continued, with the AUD drifting to 0.7440, while the NZD held 0.7430 The Bank of England Governor warned of threats to the UK economy, citing Brexit and the impact this may have on the economy.US Factory Orders continued to post gains, as did Durable Goods Orders, but this was qualified by a contraction in the ISM Non Manufacturing data.
Posted on 5 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 3 - Apple has a blowout
The AUD floundered around 0.7960, while the NZD drifted back towards 0.7400, looking for direction. Apple exceeded all expectations on earnings and this pushed the Dow to a close above 22,000! The tech company beat on earnings on both above and below the line revenue. This enabled the DOW to push to yet another milestone. The Dollar continued to fade, with the EUR rebounding to 1.1850, while the GBP hit 1.3250.
Posted on 3 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 2 - USD rebounds
The NZD was also hit by the rebounding Dollar, falling back towards 0.7450, The Dow surged through 22,000, making every post a winner, supported by market optimism and earnings. Equity markets have been soaring, with abounding confidence, since the election of President Trump. De-regulation is well underway, while the promise of tax reform has been a fundamental, thus essential to support the bull market.
Posted on 2 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 30 - AUD rises higher
The reserve weakness has directly impacted the commodity currencies, with the AUD pushing towards 0.8000, Oil prices continued to post gains, pushing up to $48.50, as a direct result of the Russian led OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting. US Housing data continued to improve and this leading sector may lead the economy but tax reform is sorely needed. The flagging reserve allowed commodity currencies to continue to gain ground, with the AUD breaking above 0.7950, while the NZD pushed above 0.7450.
Posted on 31 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 27 - Oil up after meeting
AUD breaking above 0.7950, while the NZD pushed above 0.7450. Oil prices continued to post gains, pushing up to $48.50, as a direct result of the Russian led OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting. US Housing data continued to improve and this leading sector may lead the economy but tax reform is sorely needed. The flagging reserve allowed commodity currencies to continue to gain ground, with the AUD breaking above 0.7950, while the NZD pushed above 0.7450.
Posted on 27 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 25 - Oil production limited
The AUD has settled around 0.7900, with huge gains being digested, while the NZD spiked to 0.7450 OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil producers are meeting, with Russia taking a leading role, in an effort to limit production to reduce stocks. Oil has shown limited upside, in the last week, but remains fundamentally challenged. The oil price is the life blood of Russia and OPEC but demand and oversupply have limited any upside.
Posted on 25 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 20 - Oil price slips up
The AUD has been surging strongly, trading around 0.7950, while the NZD has attempted to consolidate around 0.7350. Oil has quietly worked its way back to $47/barrel, in line with gains posted by other commodity prices, directly translating into stronger currencies. The AUD has been surging strongly, trading around 0.7950, while the NZD has attempted to consolidate around 0.7350. Eyes are firmly on the ECB and there actions. Expectations are for no rate change but for hawkish commentary from Draghi.
Posted on 20 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 19 - US Rally hits wall
AUD rallying above 0.7900, while the NZD looks to 0.7350 The US Dollar continued to flounder, ahead of the ECB meeting, Thursday. The EUR rallied strongly, to 1.1550, with expectations of an end to the extreme monetary policy currently in place. The GBP did not react, holding around 1.3050, tempered by lower than expected inflation data.
Posted on 19 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 18 - China has positive data
The AUD drifted below 0.7800, while the NZD held above 0.7300, awaiting important CPI data released today. Chinese economic performance translates directly into demand driven support for commodity prices. This allowed the currencies to consolidate after spiking at the close of last week. The AUD drifted below 0.7800, while the NZD held above 0.7300, awaiting important CPI data released today. The GBP traded 1.3050, while the EUR pushed towards 1.1500, ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday.
Posted on 18 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 15-16 - US Dollar hit hard
The AUD jumped to 0.7820, while the NZD consolidated above 0.7300, echoing the global move against the Dollar. The AUD jumped to 0.7820, while the NZD consolidated above 0.7300, echoing the global move against the Dollar. The coming week will provide plenty of cannon fodder in the form of global economic data releases and Central Bank activity. The ECB will be a major influence, in the coming week, while RBA minutes and Employment data will drive local currency moves.
Posted on 17 Jul