Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- July 10, 2013 - Bull run continues

by Collinson FX on 11 Jul 2013
Volvo Ocean Race winner, Mike Sanderson helmed Stratis in the Elliott 5.9 fleet (55) - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: July 10, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Equity markets continued the recent bull-run with sentiment on the improve as an acceptance of marginal tapering, which provides continued QE for the forseeable future. The shock will come when reality bites and Central Banks will realise the consequences of the record breaking monetary largesse! The EUR has drifted lower, despite the rising confidence, with the single currency falling below 1.2800.

The GBP fell to 1.4870, wiping out recent gains, after Manufacturing Production fell 2.9% and Industrial Production also down 2.3%. There is little good news out of Europe and Bond yields in the PIIGS nations are once again on the march. The IMF has again reviewed Global growth lower from 3.3 to 3.1%. The US growth has been downgraded from 1.9% to 1.7% and they have recommended continued QE. This is a terrible growth rate for the US but has failed to dampen the positive sentiment.

Equities are on the rise after Alcoa beat expectations opening the earnings season. Aluminium demand is improving and so are earnings expectations which has reinforced positive sentiments across the markets. It is hard to have faith in this rally considering the economic situation and the fiscal crises that faces most western countries which have been supported by record breaking monetary recklessness. Commodities found support with rising US confidence and the KIWI rallied to 0.7840 with rising credit card spending and Home Prices.

The AUD also found support from the markets despite weakening Business Conditions and Confidence. Business is struggling and these reports hit record lows reflecting the decline in investment in Mining. The AUD is again testing 0.9200 but this is externally driven and vulnerabilities remain!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 9, 2013
Markets continued to feed off last weeks positive Jobs data from the US and equities continued to rally strongly. European markets fed of the US lead despite weaker German Industrial Production and falling EU Investor Confidence. Positive news from Greece and Portugal also added to confidence and the EUR stabilised at 1.2875 and the GBP 1.4960. US Markets continued to rally strongly with Alcoa kicking off the earnings season this week.

The stronger Jobs data and acceptance of controlled tapering from the Fed has added to confidence prevailing in the US economic recovery. This has allowed the safety play to settle the Dollar and Bond Yields have also calmed recent spikes. Commodities rebounded and so did the associated currencies with AUD rebounding to just over 0.9100 despite Job Ads falling and unemployment on the rise.

Domestic data is certainly secondary in cause/effect on the currency. Employment is set to deteriorate in line with recent economic domestic data. The KIWI also recovered from the lows to test 0.7800 with local House Sales and Prices flattening out. Central Banks will continue to dictate market direction although local data and US earnings will also have impact.


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 16 - NZD rallies in expectation
The NZD has rallied back to 0.7200, with anticipated rises in the Dairy Auction result The JPY was steady, trading 101.20, while the GBP slipped back to 1.2875. The NZD has rallied back to 0.7200, with anticipated rises in the Dairy Auction result, while the AUD holds around 0.7670. Look for Central Bank commentary to drive market direction as weak economic data is the new norm.
Posted on 16 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 12 - NZD slides
Equity markets fell from record highs to close the week after weaker than expected US Retail Sales. The NZD slipped back below 0.7200, while the AUD fell to 0.7650, both still supported by favourable interest rate differentials. The week ahead has plenty of ammunition on the economic data front, lead by CPI data, that will probably confirm weak global growth.
Posted on 13 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 11 - RBNZ caught out again
The NZD trade around 0.7200, while the AUD tests 0.7700, again. The RBNZ was shocked after the dust settled. They cut rates, as expected, then verballed the currency lower.The markets saw the interest rate differential and acted.
Posted on 12 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 10 - NZD does a weird rally
he AUD breaching 0.7700, while the NZD moves towards 0.7200. The NZD is rallying ahead of the RBNZ interest rate decision which confounds many as a cut in interest rates is expected. The rate is expected to be cut by to 2%, but this may be too little, too late. The RBA cut rates and the currency has rebounded strongly as interest differentials still prove attractive.
Posted on 11 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 9 - RBNZ to get the stick out?
Commodity currencies held on to ground, with the KIWI moving back towards 0.7150, while the AUD consolidated around 0.76 Commodity currencies held on to ground, with the KIWI moving back towards 0.7150, while the AUD consolidated around 0.7650. NZ Markets await some expected aggressive action from the RBNZ, while a quiet week will be keenly awaiting the US Retail Sales data.
Posted on 10 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 8 - Kiwi market chatter over RBNZ
The NZD is supported by interest rate differentials and holds 0.7100, while the AUD trades around 0.7650. NZ Markets are discussing the RBNZ rate decision, which is likely to cut rates, in line with other Central Banks. They would need to do this and indicate further rates to closely follow, to have a serious impact on the currency, as discovered by the RBA!
Posted on 9 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 4 - USD up, EUR slips, GBP drifts
The stronger reserve triggered a slide in the bloated NZD, which fell to 0.7135, while the AUD stabilised around 0.7575 Markets were steady overnight, as EU Services and Composite PMI data came in slightly above expectations, in line with similar releases in the US and China. The US ADP Employment reported an improvement in private sector jobs. This lead to a rebound in the USD, with the EUR slipping to 1.1150, while the GBP drifted to 1.3320.
Posted on 4 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 3- Australia cuts rate again
The AUD fell back to 0.7500, but under international consideration, bounced back to 0.7600! The AUD fell back to 0.7500, but under international consideration, bounced back to 0.7600! Central Bank activity has been considered under the global QE. The KIWI has also been buoyant, afflicted by global Monetary Policy, rising above 0.7200. The Reserve currency has reinforced the reality of a weaker global economy, drifting lower, undermined by the Fed.
Posted on 2 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 30-31- US growth well short
The NZD now looks to test 0.7200, confounding the impotent RBNZ, while the AUD challenged 0.7600 The Dollar crashed after the GDP numbers, with the EUR trading 1.1180, while the GBP hit 1.3230. The failure of the Fed to implement telegraphed rate rises, has hit the Dollar as the reserve, triggering support for commodity currencies despite weakness in demand. The NZD now looks to test 0.7200, confounding the impotent RBNZ, while the AUD challenged 0.7600.
Posted on 1 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 29 - Italy sweats on stress test
This took the shine off the recent rally in the NZD which slipped back to 0.7060 The JPY remains firm, trading around 105.25, in preparation. Commodity demand was slack on the energy and agricultural front, while metals eked out some gains. This took the shine off the recent rally in the NZD which slipped back to 0.7060, while the AUD continued to toy with the 0.7500 mark.
Posted on 30 Jul