Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- January 11, 2013 - Gradual Recovery?

by Collinson FX on 11 Jan 2013
Leonard Takahashi-Fry returns to Nelson Yacht Club after winning the Tanner Cup . ..

Collinson FX market Commentary: January 11, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets continued to to wipe out any losses sustained earlier in the week after some good news from China and positive talk from Europe. Chinese Exports rose 14.1% to new highs but these numbers seem questionable considering the demand side of the equation.

It is not hard to be skeptical of some of the economic data although the directional indications should be noted. The EUR rallied to 1.3250 dragging the GBP to 1.6150 after ECB President left rates unchanged and predicted Economic Activity would 'gradually recover'. The question of course is how gradual?Without a recovery the unemployment rate should provoke further social upheaval leading to political pressures.

The Bank of England also left rates unchanged but these Central Banks have their backs up against the wall. Commodities continued to recover pushing the AUD to trade around 1.0550 and the KIWI 0.8400. Thin trade could mean any meaningful events could trigger a reaction and a break out either way may see technical traders hop on the boat!


Collinson FX market Commentary: January 10, 2013
Equity markets rebounded after two days of consecutive falls. US markets remain nervous over Corporate earnings but many of these fears were dispelled with Alcoa. The Aluminium manufacturer beat expectations and reviewed future prospects higher. This was a boon to markets with little happening on the Political budget front. In Europe, German Industrial Production remains weak, down 2.9% for the year, in line with the fall in recent export data. The EUR holds 1.3050 but would suffer any further weak economic data and Political uncertainty.

NZ Building Permits fell 5.4% but New Home Sales rose 4.7% reflecting the state of the housing market. Home Sales and Prices are skyrocketing with a serious supply issue exaggerated by the prohibitive cost of building. The KIWI rose to 0.8380 with the AUD breaching 1.0500 despite a fall in Retail Sales. Weekly Mortgage Applications fell 11.7% in the US, contradicting the much vaunted recovery in this all important sector.

Earnings will continue to dominate day to day markets with economic data giving insight in to the state of the recovery and the environment which corporates operate. The Gorilla has the strange name of 'Debt-Ceiling'!



Collinson FX market Commentary: January 9, 2013

European markets continued the negative trend with the release of a huge volume of economic data. EU Retail Sales fell along with Consumer Confidence. EU Business, Industrial and Economic Climates have all taken a cold turn with Employment hovering at 11.8%. Retail Sales continued to fall and German Factory Orders slipped 1%. These are all headline economic data releases and all show an Economic Zone entrenched in recession, which will be difficult to recover from.

In the US, NFIB Small Business Optimism remained steady at 88 but still reflects the weakness in this all-important sector. The Equity markets continued to return last weeks gains with the prospect of the earnings season kicking off with Alcoa. The earnings season is not expected to be over bullish as Corporate earnings will reflect the tough economy and lack in investment.

The EUR returned recent gains to trade back at 1.3065 and the GBP 1.6050. The Australian Trade Balance continued to deteriorate as global demand weakens although the relative strength of the economy and attractive interest rate differentials supported the currency just under 1.0500.

The KIWI rides along with the 'least worst' trade holding just over 0.8300. Earnings and Economic data will continue to dominate the market direction this week but watch for Political developments which could cause major changes in conditions.


Collinson FX market Commentary: January 6, 2013

The New Year rally continued at the close of the week sparked by the Fiscal Agreement in Congress. The reality will sink in and markets will look at the next round with the Debt Ceiling negotiations very close on the Horizon.

The fiscal irresponsibility will drive the the US to the edge and any spike in interest rates will put them over. The Fed indicated a propensity to begin to raise rates later in the year if conditions continued to improve. This has given some backbone to the USD pushing the EUR back to 1.3070 and the GBP 1.6060. This did not effect the commodity currencies as confidence exploded and pushed commodity prices north.

The AUD looks set to test 1.0500 although the KIWI receded from initial gains to settle above 0.8300. This coming week is a huge week for Economic data releases in Europe, the US and Asia which may well impact daily, especially with any surprises. ECB and Bank of England rate decisions will monitored closely later in the week. Political developments will drive the undercurrent of sentiment.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 25 - KIWI surges past 70c
The NZD has surged above 0.7000, supported by a sliding reserve, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7500. The Dollar remained depressed, with the EUR holding 1.1200, while the GBP traded 1.2950. Local markets will digest the NZ Budget, which will likely be an election economic plan, affirming the stronger economy allows delivery. The NZD has surged above 0.7000, supported by a sliding reserve, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7500.
Posted on 25 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 20-21 - All currencies rise
AUD hitting 0.7450, while the NZD traded above 0.6900 again. The EUR pushed through 1.1200, while the GBP broke above 1.3000, despite weak economic confidence in the Eurozone. The weak reserve enabled commodity currencies, with the AUD hitting 0.7450, while the NZD traded above 0.6900 again. Trumps tour will provide Geo-Political points of issue but may calm the domestic politic.
Posted on 22 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 19 - Pressure off Trump
The AUD held above 0.7400, supported by lower unemployment rate (down to 5.7%), while the NZD slipped back below 0.6900. Markets recovered some of yesterdays lost ground, after an Independent Counsel was appointed to investigate the Russian interference, thereby relieving pressure on Trump. The obstruction charge, that prompted talk of Trumps impeachment, was also questioned. A tape circulated that Comey denied the Presidents intervention.
Posted on 19 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 17 - NZD and AUD all rise
The AUD also continues to rally, consolidating above 0.7400, after the RBA minutes confirmed little change in monetary p The NZ Dairy auction continued to improve, supporting a recovery in the currency, pushing the NZD towards 0.6900. US Housing Starts contracted 2.6%, while Building Permits slipped 2.5%, giving little reason for a Dollar rebound. The AUD also continues to rally, consolidating above 0.7400, after the RBA minutes confirmed little change in monetary policy.
Posted on 17 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 15 - Oil surges after Price Fix
The AUD broke back above 0.7400, in to some clear air, while the NZD held above 0.7850. Oil surged back towards $50/barrel, after Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a deal on limiting supply, looking to push the price up to a higher trading band. US equity markets jumped and the Dollar slipped lower.
Posted on 16 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 13-14 - Budget imbalance
The KIWI (0.6850) has been battered, after the RBNZ indicated accommodative monetary policy would continue The AUD has been under extreme pressure, but quietly moves back towards 0.7400, post Budget. The Australian Budget signalled a different approach to fiscal balance. The Government has been unable to cut some of the expenditure required, being curtailed in the Senate, while political will has dissipated.
Posted on 15 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 12 - Banks sit on their hands
The NZD dropped a big figure, to 0.6828, but recovered overnight to settle around 0.6850 The Bank of England and RBNZ both left rates unchanged, as expected, but associated commentaries were negative. The Bank of England continued current accommodative Monetary Policy and indicated a penchant for rises 'assuming a smooth transition Post-Brexit'! The GBP drifted back to 1.2890, after a recent bull run
Posted on 11 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 9 - Aussies tax banks
The AUD has fallen back to 0.7340, while the NZD slipped below 0.6900, as the reserve recovers. The Australian budget was delivered and changed the focus from a reduction in spending to an expansion of revenue. This is a different approach to the goal of balancing the budget. This is a move away from the ideological 'smaller Government' to expanding tax revenues and avoiding electoral pain.
Posted on 10 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 7 - Macron win expected
The associated currencies were beneficiaries, with the AUD rallying above 0.7400, while the NZD consolidated above 0.690 The EUR trades around 1.1000, so nothing less than a victory for Macron will do, a loss being catastrophic. The only way LePen can make a dent is a strong turnout from the minority, enthusiastic supporters, while inertia is a threat. There is little upside, so most will be square, with a few reckless punters short!
Posted on 7 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 5 - Confidence up on Macron win
The AUD has been the biggest victim, falling below 0.7400, while the NZD dropped below 0.6850. Commodity prices have been under pressure, depressing the associated currencies, which have found no solace in interest rate differentials. The AUD has been the biggest victim, falling below 0.7400, while the NZD dropped below 0.6850. Commodity demand has slipped, hitting energy prices and companies, with soft Chinese demand.
Posted on 4 May