Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- February 7, 2013 - European Bulls

by Collinson FX on 7 Feb 2013
SKUD 18 in able/disabled mode - Day 4, Oceanbridge Sail Auckland 2013 © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 7, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

European leaders are set to gather to discuss current issues after what has been a bullish start to the year. All EU problems are behind them now they have solved the debt/deficit crises and have robust growth, solving all ills. Absolutely amazing that pundits accept the current economic/political situation with deficits running as high as ever, building ever increasing debt which is unserviceable in most cases.

The EUR retraced back to 1.3500 and the GBP continues to capitulate at 1.5650. In the US, there was little political or economic activity, in terms of releases, and the markets stuttered. All eyes will be on the ECB and the BofE later tonight with their take on the robust nature of the recovery. With little ammunition in the armoury, it will be about the commentary more than anything.

The situation remains dire and because the spotlight is off, little attention is paid. These problems remain and will come back to haunt investors. Bulls remain deluded and reality will eventually strike home with avengeance.

The AUD stumbled after Retail Sales contracted 0.2% as the political turmoil continues.

The AUD struggled to hold 1.0300 and looks set for further assaults despite the lack of action from the RBA. The poorer cousin, NZD, continues to hold above 0.8400 but remains tenuous.



Collinson FX market Commentary: February 7, 2013

The Dow broke through the all important 14,000 barrier for the first time since the global recession hit markets. The flood of liquidity must go somewhere and equities provide some return unlike fixed interest. The scramble to invest is a direct result of the panic to avoid 'missing the equity boat'!

Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed falling to 157,000 and Unemployment rose to 7.9% but this was ignored with 2012 data revised upwards and analysts confident the economy will support risk investments. The University of Michigan Confidence index surged to 73.8 reversing previous economic indicators. This was all the cash flush bulls needed and they jumped in boots and all. The record start to the year continues with gay abandon, fueled by Bernanke and wheelbarrows full of money.

The KIWI continued to reflect the assault on the USD, rising to just under 0.8450, after the RBNZ notably missed the opportunity to cut rates in response to the rising 'currency wars'. The AUD remained trading around 1.0400 as political turmoil engulfs the nation. The longest election campaign in history was closely followed by the arrest of crucial MP Thomson who props up this disastrous administration. The situation has deteriorated with a string of resignations from the cabinet as the rats abandon the sinking ship.

All eyes will turn to the RBA when they announce their rate decision with the heat on them to respond to the Fed and BoJ.

The coming week will continue to monitor the progress of the bulls on equity markets as technicals point to no ceiling in sight. ECB and the BoE will come into focus later in the week with little capacity to cut rates but their attitude to Money supply and commentary will have an impact.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 29 - Italy sweats on stress test
This took the shine off the recent rally in the NZD which slipped back to 0.7060 The JPY remains firm, trading around 105.25, in preparation. Commodity demand was slack on the energy and agricultural front, while metals eked out some gains. This took the shine off the recent rally in the NZD which slipped back to 0.7060, while the AUD continued to toy with the 0.7500 mark.
Posted on 30 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 28 - Japan lights afterburner
The AUD settled below 0.7500, while the KIWI rallied to above 0.7050, despite all efforts by the RBNZ. The AUD settled below 0.7500, while the KIWI rallied to above 0.7050, despite all efforts by the RBNZ. The NZ Central Bank has done all it could to jaw-bone the currency lower but will now need to cut interest rates. The RBNZ has been reactive since the 2008 economic collapse
Posted on 28 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 27 - Steady trade data ups KIWI
NZ Trade data was steady and allowed for the NZD to push back above 0.7000, while the AUD flirts with 0.7500 The JPY slipped back to 104.70, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting, while the EUR approached 1.1000. NZ Trade data was steady and allowed for the NZD to push back above 0.7000, while the AUD flirts with 0.7500. All eyes remain on the Fed!
Posted on 26 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 24 - Brit's sentimental slowdown
The AUD traded down to 0.7450, while the KIWI consolidated below 0.7000 There may be signs of a slowdown in the British economy as the Composite and Services PMI both plunged, while EU data held steady. This is not as a result of actual circumstances changing but sentiment.
Posted on 25 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 22 - RBNZ's words undermine NZD
The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000 The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000, undermined by the RBNZ statement telegraphing further interest rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 21 - It's official, No slowdown
The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000 Oil fell to $45/barrel, leading a raft of commodities lower, putting a ceiling on associated currencies. The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000. Central Bank intentions in Australia and NZ are clear, with NZ LVR's, clearing the decks in preparation for rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 20 - Markets make full recovery
The AUD trades below 0.7500, while the NZD is headed towards 0.7000 RBA minutes provided a great summary of global economic conditions and how they impact the Australian situation. The RBA considered the impact of the Brexit and recognised that markets were back to pre-brexit levels, except the GBP
Posted on 20 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - 19 July - Brexit a boon for Brits?
NZ CPI came in at 0.4%, for Q2, missing expectations. This pushed the currency below 0.7100 The tumultuous weekend of terrorism in France and a failed coup in Turkey failed to unsettle markets. Equities and currencies commenced the week quietly with the USD settling and share markets perched just below highs. QE has provided massive amounts of cheap money to supply equity markets
Posted on 19 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 16/17 - French attack hits USD
The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve, with the KIWI drifting back towards 0.7100. Geo-Political events are overwhelming economic events, while Central Bank intervention has driven market moves, filling the space of vacuous global fiscal policies.
Posted on 18 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 15 - RBNZ's surprise adjustment
The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles, allowing commentary to drive the currency back below 0.7200. The RBNZ never seem to quite get it right in the Monetary Policy realm and this interruption is a correction of the last, ham-fisted, statement
Posted on 14 Jul